Russia's war on Ukraine. 23.10.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, 5 combat clashes took place in the areas of Vovchansk and Starytsya.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 13 attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Holubivka, Pishchane, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 14 times near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Terny, and Torske. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled a Russian attempt to advance towards Bondarne.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the invaders attempted to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, and Selydove. 56 assaults were repelled. The highest concentration of enemy attacks occurred near Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 47 attacks near Hirnyk, Novodmytrivka, Hostre, Katerynivka, and Antonivka, where the enemy tried to break through the Ukrainain defenses. On the Vremivka direction, the aggressor assaulted the forward line 10 times in the direction of Bohoyavlenka and Velyka Novosilka. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers continue trying to push Ukrainian units out of their positions. A combat clash occurred near Robotyne.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, 4 Russian attacks in the Dnipro Delta island zone were unsuccessful.

Along the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy maintains a military presence, shells populated areas from Russian territory and increases the density of mine-explosive barriers along the Ukrainian state border.

General conclusion:

• On the Ivanivka–Stepova Novoselivka and Kyslivka–Stepova Novoselivka directions, the enemy has not yet achieved any significant success, despite numerous attacks and assaults. This is likely due to the 1st Tank Army's command shifting its main focus further south, toward the Tabaiivka–Hlushkivka and Pishchane (Lower)–Kruhlyakivka directions. Renewed attacks from the 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division, supported by the 6th Army and the 11th Army Corps, can be expected along the Vilshana–Petropavlivka and Pershotravneve–Petropavlivka axes.

• The enemy’s "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping Command on the Kupyansk direction aims to reach a defensive line along the Oskil River over the broadest possible section of the front. The main strike is delivered by the 1st Tank Army in the general direction of Krokhmalne–Hlushkivka. An intensification of fighting towards Kupyansk and Borova should also be expected.

• Even if part of the "Khortytsia" OSG holds the line between Lyman, Yampil, and the Chornyi Zherebets River, north of the Seversky Donets, it will have little tactical significance for the enemy if they manage to advance along the left bank of the Oskil River between Kupyansk and Borova over a sufficiently wide front. In this case, to launch a further offensive towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north, the enemy would not need to cross the Oskil River but would only have to advance from north to south along its left bank from Borova, with their right flank covered by the Oskil River.

• The losses suffered by the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping on the Lyman direction are comparable to the losses of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping in the Pokrovsk area. This is because the future of the enemy’s operations at the junction of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts is being determined on the Oskil River.

• On the Lyman direction, one of the enemy's units refused to follow orders, took a circular defense, and is repelling attacks from blocking units composed of Chechen forces (this information is being verified).   

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 166 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces advanced in the fields south of Sheptukhovka. Intense fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks continued near Zelionyi Put, Novoivanovka, Liubimovka, and Novyi Put.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops launched unsuccessful attacks near Vovchansk, Starytsya, and Lyptsi. The enemy begun using UAVs controlled via fiber-optic cables.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces captured Novosadove, advanced northwest and southwest of Stelmakhivka, and continued offensive actions near Lyman Pershyi, Petropavlivka, Zelenyi Hai, Stelmakhivka, Lozova, Pishchane, Dzherelne, Vyshneve, Hrekivka, Katerynivka, and Novomykhailivka.

• Near the Synkivka–Petropavlivka line, several motorized rifle battalions of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade successfully bypassed Synkivka from the west and advanced toward the Hnylytsia River along the railway.

• The 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 12th Tank Regiment of the 4th Tank Division, having crossed the Chornyi Zherebets River near Andriivka, advanced toward Dzherelne–Vyshneve in the direction of Borova. The enemy is likely to attempt further advances toward Pershotravneve and Zelenyi Hai. Assault units of the 4th Tank Division actively attack forward positions of the "Khortytsia" OSG near Stelmakhivka, aiming to reach the rear of Ukrainian units defending southwest of Berestove.

• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Makiivka, Novosadove, Torske, and Terny.

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensives near Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, and Pereyizne.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops conducted offensive operations near Vasyukivka.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Toretsk and in the area of Shcherbynivka, deploying significant reinforcements to Toretsk.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to defend west of Krasnyi Yar. Russian troops advanced near Selydove and the northern part of Hirnyk, continuing offensives in the areas of Promin, Sukha Balka, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Selydove, Lysivka, Mykhailivka, Krasnyi Yar, Krutyi Yar, Hirnyk, Novodmytrivka, Zoryane, Novoselydivka, and Izmailivka.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack east of Kurakhove, but the enemy advanced west along the O0510 highway between Maryinka and Kurakhove, continuing attacks near Hostre, Dalnie, and Heorhiivka.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced near Vuhledar in the eastern part of Antonivka, within Katerynivka, north of Vodyane, and near Bohoyavlenka, continuing attacks near Antonivka, Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, and Zolota Nyva.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.

  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 28 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 25th Army has completed its formation and arrived on the Lyman direction.

• The 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division, the 1434th "Akhmat-Chechnya" Motorized Rifle Regiment, and the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet operate near Liubimovka, while the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade is positioned southeast of Sudzha. The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, and the 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division are active in Kursk Oblast.

• The 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 4th Tank Division and the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army are advancing near Stelmakhivka. Overall, on the Kupyansk direction, the 1st Tank Army (2nd Motorized Rifle Division, 4th, 47th Tank Divisions, 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade), part of the 6th Army (two Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division, two motorized battalions of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 9th BARS Detachment), part of the 11th Army Corps (two Motorized Rifle Regiments of Territorial Defense and one motorized battalion), and up to three motorized battalions from the 20th Army are operating. The group consists of 34,500 personnel, 430 tanks, 715 armored vehicles, 480 artillery pieces and mortars, and around 160 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).

• The 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps operates in the direction of Chasiv Yar, while the 8th Volunteer Brigade "Española" (Russian Volunteer Corps) is active northeast of Chasiv Yar.

• The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps is engaged in combat near Vuhledar, and the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army attacked near Zolota Nyva. The 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 68th Army Corps is engaged in combat near Yelyzavetivka.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The command of the enemy's 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade on the Kupyansk direction in the near future will attempt to advance eastward and cut off all roads leading to Synkivka from the south, reach the Oskil River across from the village of Holubivka on the right bank, in order to force the "Khortytsia" OSG forward units defending in the Synkivka area to retreat towards Petropavlivka.

• The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.

• The enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping's 3rd Combined Arms Army will attempt to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Siversk salient and capture Chasiv Yar, in order to establish the conditions for further advances towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.10.24  

Personnel - almost 683,040 (+1,460); 

Tanks 9,088 (+9);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,229 (+30); 

Artillery systems – 19,674 (+51);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,234 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 981 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 27,217 (+106);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 17,489 (+85);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2625 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of October 23, 2024, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 81 "Shahed" strike drones and other unidentified UAVs, of which 57 were shot down by air defense forces, while 15 Russian drones were lost in unknown locations. The occupiers also attacked Odesa Oblast with an X-31P guided missile. As of 9 a.m., up to 9 enemy UAVs remained in Ukrainian airspace.

• On the night of October 23, Russian forces launched an airstrike on the Malodanylivska community in Kharkiv Oblast, injuring three people and damaging houses and power lines.

• In the morning of October 23, a series of explosions occurred in Cherkasy and the surrounding Oblast during a drone attack, damaging the bus station and a private enterprise in Cherkasy, as well as a residential building, a garage, and vehicles in the region.

• In the afternoon, Russian forces attacked the village of Bilozerka in Kherson Oblast with a UAV, injuring two men. Additionally, three women were injured in separate drone attacks: a 59-year-old woman in Bilozerka, a 48-year-old woman in Tomyna Balka while driving a civilian car, and a 64-year-old woman at a bus stop in Kherson.

• In Vasylivka District, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian forces struck a civilian car between the villages of Stepnohirsk and Prymorske with a drone, killing two men, aged 40 and 73.

• In Nikopol District, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, shelling injured four people, with one man hospitalized in critical condition.

• On Tuesday, October 22, Russian forces attacked seven towns and villages in Kharkiv Oblast, killing one person and injuring another.

• The Russian army attacked 17 towns and villages in Kherson Oblast over the past day, wounding two people.

• On October 22, Russian forces killed three residents of Donetsk Oblast, and seven others were injured.

• During the occupation of parts of Kyiv Oblast in the spring of 2022, Russian occupiers abducted at least 250 civilians, according to Tetiana Katrychenko, executive director of the Media Initiative for Human Rights (MIPL). She stated that as of early February 2022, MIPL was aware of around 300 cases of civilian detentions in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and over 150 cases in occupied Crimea, with many being transferred to Russia. Following the full-scale invasion, this number grew, and now at least 1,880 civilians are known to have been detained.