Russia's war on Ukraine. 31.10.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched 1 attack near Vovchansk.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted 21 attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Synkivka, Novoosynove, Kolisnykivka, Pershotravneve, Pishchane, Kruhlyakivka, Zelenyi Hai, Vyshneve, Bohuslavka, Petropavlivka, Lozova, Kindrashivka, and Zahryzove. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attempted 11 advances toward Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Terny, Zarichne, Druzhelyubivka, and in the Serebriansk Forest area. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian assaults near Verkhnyokamianske and Bilohorivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked near Chasiv Yar.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the situation remains tense. Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 28 attacks toward Myrolyubivka, Promin, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Vyshneve, Krutyi Yar, and Selydove.  On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 41 attacks near Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Illinka, Maksymilianivka, Hostre, Yelyzavetivka, Dalnie, Antonivka, Kurakhivka, Kreminna Balka, Voznesenka, and Katerynivka.  On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 8 assaults on Ukrainian positions around Bohoyavlenka, Maksymivka, Trudove, and Novoukrainka, actively using assault and bomber aircraft. On the Huliaypole direction, the enemy made a failed attempt to push Ukrainian defenders from positions near Charivne.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the operational situation remains unchanged, with the enemy carrying out 4 unsuccessful assaults.

On the Orikhiv and Toretsk directions, the enemy did not conduct ground assaults but used assault and bomber aircraft to strike populated areas.

General conclusion:

• The capture of Kruhlyakivka by enemy forces would sever the logistics route of "Khortytsia" OSG complicating withdrawal to the right bank of the Oskil River.

• In the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conduct assaults using armored vehicles and highly maneuverable equipment, such as motorcycles. Ukrainian defenses near the Oskil River prevent the enemy from crossing the river from the left bank.

• To maintain the momentum of their offensive toward Kurakhove, the enemy's military command is forced to redeploy reserves, pulling troops from the Toretsk direction.

• The optimal approach for occupying Donetsk Oblast for to Russian military command on the theater of operations, remains capturing Lyman, severing the Kharkiv-Sloviansk highway, and only then launching an advance on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 145 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces advanced into central Novoivanovka and entered Plekhovo but are unable to secure positions in this area.

• The “Siversk” OTG counterattacked near Daryino, Nizhniy Klin, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Novoivanovka, Tolstyi Lug, and Plekhovo, with ongoing battles in Martynovka.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued limited attacks around Lyptsi and Vovchansk.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces moved south from Stepova Novoselivka. The 1st Tank Regiment and the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army are fighting for Kruhlyakivka. The enemy advanced southwest of Berestove and east of Lozova and continued assaults near Holubivka, Synkivka, Pershotravneve, Kolisnykivka, Bohuslavka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, Zahryzove, Vyshneve, Berestove, Zelenyi Hai, Cherneshchyna, Novoosynove, Stelmakhivka, Druzhelyubivka, and Hrekivka.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced north of Terny, attempted to advance north and south of Nevske and north of Novosadove, and continued their offensive near Katerynivka, Novomykhailivka, Nevske, Terny, Zarichne, Yampolivka, Torske, and Serebrianka.  

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Zvanivka but were unsuccessful.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, "Akhmat" Chechen assault groups and the 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion of Territorial Defense of the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army advanced along the T0504 highway from Bakhmut to Kostyantynivka, southeast of Chasiv Yar. Russian forces continue to attack "Khortytsia" OSG positions along the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal with small infantry groups of two to three soldiers, yet are unable to hold the positions they reach. The enemy continued advancing near Stupochky.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued their attacks on Toretsk and near Shcherbynivka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained positions northeast of Novohrodivka and successfully repelled enemy attacks near Novooleksandrivka and Vozdvyzhenka.

• Russian forces advanced southeast of Promin and within and northwest of Selydove and continued attacks around Myrnohrad, Promin, Myrolyubivka, Sukhyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Selydove, and Vyshneve.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces moved southwest from Hirnyk and near the Kurakhivka Central Processing Plant, west of Kurakhivka. They are battling for Kurakhivka and continued advances near Novodmytrivka, Novoselivka, Illinka, Berestky, Kurakhivka, Hostre, and Maksymilianivka.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks pushing toward eastern Kurakhove.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces are trying to advance in the areas of Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, and Shakhtarske and continued their attacks near Antonivka, Katerynivka, Dalnie, Bohoyavlenka, Yasna Polyana, and Shakhtarske, and advanced near Levadne.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces began deploying FPV drones with fiber-optic cables up to 10 kilometers in length.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces launched a missile strike with ATACMS missiles and hit elements of the S-300/S-400 air defense system near Rusakivka in Crimea.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army and the 1008th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps are advancing south of Chasiv Yar.

• The 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, along with the "Somali" and "Sparta" battalions of the 51st Combined Arms Army, are active on the Toretsk direction.

• The 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 58th Combined Arms Army, the 11th BARS "Kuban" unit, and elements of the 7th Air Assault Division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are engaged on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

• The 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division in the 18th Combined Arms Army, along with the 33rd BARS unit, continue operations on the Kherson direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• To cross the Vovcha River and create conditions for further advancement toward Bilyi Kolodyaz and Rubizhne, the enemy around Vovchansk may attempt to bypass the city, either by advancing from the east toward Vovchanski Khutory through Tykhe or by resuming attacks toward Buhruvatka–Starytsia or along one of the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River. In another direction, the enemy may shift their offensive focus and attempt to reach the Traviyanske Reservoir dam via the summer houses from Hlyboke or concentrate their main efforts along the Zelene–Neskuchne line, moving generally toward Vesele along the Murom River.

• The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.

• If the enemy achieves success on the Lyman and Kupyansk directions (for example, by breaking through to the Oskil River near Borova) and establishes a northern flank of the Siversk salient beyond the river, the importance of the operational area of the 3rd Army, particularly its left flank south of Siversk, will sharply increase in relation to both Siversk and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• In the near future, the "Tavriya" OSG is expected to fully withdraw from the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir. The future defense of Kurakhove remains uncertain, as the critical defense hub that enabled the retention of territory north of the reservoir (the town of Hirnyk) was lost following the enemy's capture of Ukrainsk and breakthrough to Tsukuryne.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.

• The enemy has reached a line approximately 7.5-8 km from the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, making it entirely possible that the Russian military command may attempt to bypass Kostyantynivka and penetrate the defenses on its outskirts through multiple frontal assaults along the shortest route. All significant changes and regroupings of enemy forces from the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping should be continuously monitored.

• The most likely directions of enemy action could be the junction of the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts and the direction toward Dvorichna along the right bank of the Oskil River. Currently, the enemy does not have sufficient forces and resources to carry out such an operation.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 31.10.24  

Personnel - almost 694950 (+1,310); 

Tanks 9,156 (+19);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,450 (+17); 

Artillery systems – 20,013 (+58);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,243 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 994 (+8);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 27,961 (+121);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,063 (+84);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,627 (+2)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of October 31, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 43 strike UAVs and unidentified drones, 2 ballistic missiles, and 8 aerial missiles. The occupiers targeted the bridge over the Dniester Estuary in Zatoka in Odesa Oblast with missiles. Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed 17 enemy drones and 2 guided X-59/69 aerial missiles.

• On the evening of October 30, Russian forces struck an apartment complex in Kharkiv, almost completely destroying an entire section of the building. An 11-year-old boy and two other people were killed, and 36 others were injured.

• Russian forces continue attacking Kherson Oblast throughout the day on October 31.

  • In the morning, the enemy attacked the Korabelnyi district of Kherson with a UAV, injuring a 33-year-old man who sustained explosive injuries.

  • At approximately 11:20, the occupiers hit Beryslav with a UAV. Due to an explosive device dropped from the drone, a 38-year-old man was killed, and a 42-year-old woman was injured.

  • Around 16:00, occupying forces attacked a civilian car with a drone in the Bilozerka community of Kherson Oblast, injuring two men.

• Several times throughout the day, the enemy struck Nikopol District of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, using artillery and kamikaze drones. A 78-year-old woman was injured, suffering a shrapnel wound to her chest. She has been hospitalized in moderate condition. Infrastructure, an administrative building, and two unused buildings were damaged, along with a private house. A power transmission line was also affected.

• Acting Chairman of the Board of NEC "Ukrenergo," Oleksiy Brecht, reported that if Russian attacks on energy infrastructure continue and prove effective, electricity consumption restrictions of up to 8 hours may be implemented during the winter.

• President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Andriy Kostin from the position of Prosecutor General.