Russia's war on Ukraine. 31.08.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, here were 7 combat engagements. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks near Pletenivka, Lyptsi, and Vovchansk.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted offensive actions near Synkivka, Kolisnykivka, Novoosynove, Lozova, Andriivka, Stelmakhivka, and Hlushkivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian occupiers assaulted Defense Forces' positions near Tverdokhlibove, Novoserhiivka, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Cherneshchyna, Makiivka, Nevske, and Novosadove. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 attacks; a battle is ongoing near Druzhelyubivka.  On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled four enemy assaults in the area of Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, 12 battles took place, particularly near Kalynivka, Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Ivanivske, Andriivka, and Predtechyne. Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped all enemy assaults by the occupiers. On the Toretsk direction, 15 combat engagements occurred. Russian forces stormed Ukrainian positions near Toretsk and Nelipivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, 55 battles took place in the areas of Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Hrodivka, Karlivka, Novohrodivka, Marynivka, Myrolyubivka, Mykhailivka, and Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy attacked 23 times near Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Kostyantynivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy made eight unsuccessful attempts to dislodge our units from their defensive positions near Vuhledar and Vodyane. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy also failed during the attack near Robotyne.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the enemy suffered defeat in two attacks on Defense Forces' positions.

General conclusion:

• The enemy is intensifying efforts in the Maryinka-Vuhledar direction. 

• The Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine have extremely limited capabilities for conducting maneuver warfare due to both the loss of mobility assets and the lack of training among headquarters and troops. The enemy's rate of advance is estimated at 5-7 kilometers per week.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 179 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction: Russian forces advanced on the southern outskirts of Korenovo, in the fields north of Olgovka, and south of Sheptukhovka. They attacked Borki but did not capture the village. The enemy’s attempts to break through from Bolshoye Soldatskoye on the western direction encountered resistance from Ukrainian Defense Forces, which control Nizhnyaya Parovaya.

• "Siversk" OTG advanced east of Cherkasskoe Porechie and Nizhnyaya Parovaya, assaulting Russian positions near Snagost, Krasnooktyabrskoe, Korenovo, Kremyanoe, Cherkasskoe Porechie, Kamyshovka, Kireevka, Martynovka, and Borki. In the Glushkovo district, "Siversk" OSG destroyed six pontoon bridges and cut off Tiotkino. In response, enemy pontoon bridge units erected four more bridges near Karyzh, Zvannoye, and two between Zvannoye and Glushkovo.

• The clearing of enemy resistance pockets in the rear of "Siversk" OSG continues, particularly in the Korenovo–Sheptukhovka area. Ukrainian Defense Forces have secured positions in Aleksandrovka, repelling several Russian counterattacks and are close to breaking through enemy defenses in Korenovo. The road between Korenovo and Rylsk, the E38 highway, and the Rylsk–Lgov–Kursk railway have been blocked. Ukrainian Defense Forces UAVs continuously strike at the enemy's logistical transport.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions in the area of Lyptsi, Pletenivka, and Vovchansk.

• "Kharkiv" OTG units attacked near Ohirtseve. They disrupt the transfer of enemy assault groups in the Vovchansk area with artillery fire and FPV strikes.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Svatove, west of Pishchane, and are close to fully capturing Synkivka. The 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army reached the center of Stelmakhivka.

• The enemy continued its offensive in the area of Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Myasozharivka, Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelyubivka, Novoserhiivka, and Cherneshchyna.

• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Novosadove, Nevske, Hrekivka, Torske, and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.

• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, Ivano-Dariivka, and towards Zvanivka, but were unable to make any advances.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Stupochky, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka, but did not achieve success in any of these areas.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced within the western part of Druzhba, the northwestern part of Pivnichne, the southeastern part of Toretsk, on the eastern outskirts of Toretsk, northwest of New York, west of Yuriivka, and up to 500 meters east of Panteleimonivka. The enemy is consolidating in Pivnichne and conducted offensive actions near Toretsk, Dachne, Pivnichne, Zalizne, Nelipivka, and Sukha Balka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army captured Hrodivka, the 60th Separate Assault Battalion "Somalia" of the 51st Army advanced in the dacha zone northeast of Karlivka, and the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army had success in the summer home area west of Karlivka. Russian forces also advanced in the southwestern part of Novohrodivka, captured Karlivka and Halytsynivka, advanced northwest of Novohrodivka, southeast of Karlivka, north of Halytsynivka, south of Memryk, and within Mykhailivka, reaching the center of Selydove. They continued offensive actions in the areas of Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Hrodivka, Myrolyubivka, Karlivka, Novohrodivka, Marynivka, Mykhailivka, Ukrainsk, and Selydove.

• "Tavriya" OSG units counterattacked near Memryk.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the area of Heorhiivka and Krasnohorivka.

• Russian forces advanced north of Kostyantynivka, near Paraskoviivka, and northwest of Kostyantynivka, continued offensive actions near Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, Vuhledar, and northwest of Pobieda, but Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions on the northwestern outskirts of Kostyantynivka.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced north of Urozhaine.

• On the Orikhiv direction, positional battles continued in the area of Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka. The enemy lacks sufficient resources to conduct systematic large-scale attacks in these areas, which may be related to the redeployment of several Russian units to Kursk Oblast.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.

  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

• Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division, part of the 44th Army Corps, is operating near Malaya Loknya.

• The redeployment of the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army to the Tykhe area is ongoing to support the efforts of the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade. The enemy has transferred a reinforcement company (over 100 personnel) from the Leningrad Oblast to the Kharkiv direction to replenish losses and conduct assault operations.

• Units of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army are active on the Toretsk direction.

• Units of the 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army and the "Dostavalov Volunteer Battalion" from Bashkortostan are operating in Kostyantynivka.

• The 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 18th Combined Arms Army is engaged on the Kherson direction.

• Approximately 100 mercenaries from the Russian PMC "Medvedi" have left Burkina Faso for Perevalne in the occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea, where the "Medvedi Brigade" is stationed, for further redeployment to Kursk Oblast.

• The reserves deployed by the enemy to Kursk Oblast are assessed as follows (manning levels between 20-60%):

  • 24th Separate SOF Brigade (one detachment and one detachment each from the 2nd and 10th Separate SOF Brigades),

  • 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade (1-2 battalions and one battalion from the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade),

  • 56th Airborne Regiment (2-3 battalions),

  • 217th Airborne Regiment (1-2 battalions),

  • 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet (up to 5 battalions totaling up to 2,000 personnel, with two battalions already destroyed),

  • 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet (2 battalions, up to 1,500 personnel),

  • 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (2 battalions with 800-1,000 personnel),

  • 43rd Railroad Brigade (up to 15 pontoon bridge parks, 5th Reconnaissance and 88th Engineer Regiments),

  • 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army; 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (3 battalions with up to 1,000 personnel),

  • 5th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (3-4 anti-aircraft missile divisions "Buk-M3"), "Veterans" Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade (2-3 battalions),

  • 81st BARS (Special Combat Reserve) Detachment,

  • Consolidated Rifle Regiment of the Aerospace Forces (up to 4 battalions),

  • 9th and 100-9th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the Territorial Forces (one battalion each with up to 400 personnel, with the regiments having suffered up to 70% losses in battles near Malaya Loknya),

  • 83rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (2 battalions with up to 600 personnel),

  • 22nd and 30th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division (one battalion each operating as part of the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment),

  • 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (a battalion attached to the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade),

  • 245th and 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 47th Tank Division (one battalion from each regiment attached to the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment),

  • 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (a battalion attached to the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade),

  • 346th, 361st, 362nd, 380th, 1427th, 1428th Rifle Regiments of Mobilization Reserve,

  • 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (4 battalions),

  • 17th and 18th Border Guard Detachments of the Federal Security Service (suffered heavy losses in border battles),

  • 116th Special Purpose Brigade of the National Guard (9 battalions, suffered losses in battles on the Kharkiv direction),

  • 204th "Akhmat" Special Purpose Regiment (3 battalions), 1434th "Akhmat-Chechnya" Regiment (4-5 battalions).

Escalation indicators:

• A steady increase in the number of combat engagements along the entire front line.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy’s shift of their main offensive focus to the southern sector of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping’s operational zone on the Pokrovsk direction will soon intensify combat operations around Selidove, Ukrainsk, Halytsynivka, Kurakhivka, and Hirnyk.

• The enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping may attempt to advance through "Tavriya" OSG positions along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line, despite higher levels of casualties, in order to maintain the speed of their advance and try to capture Myrnohrad more quickly.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will likely attempt to cut off the Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway and prepare for an assault on the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration. It can be assumed that the enemy will reach the city by mid-September, but they will not be able to capture it. The open terrain, which is unfavorable for an offensive, and potential counterattacks from the Selydove and Kostyantynivka areas will slow their advance.

• Without securing the Selidove area, the enemy cannot sustain their offensive towards Pokrovsk, but they will continue attacking in an attempt to breach the defensive line along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers.

• The command of the enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping must choose between two options for continuing the offensive: either to break through Pokrovsk and the smaller villages east and southeast of Pokrovsk, or to encircle the city. The decision on how to capture Pokrovsk will depend on where Ukrainian Defense Forces deploy their reserves.

• Successful enemy advances will force "Tavriya" OSG units to withdraw from Karlivka, areas north of Krasnohorivka, and positions near Nevelske.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 31.08.24  

Personnel - almost 614,950 (+1360); 

Tanks 8,582 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 16,736 (+14); 

Artillery systems – 17,614 (+42);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,176 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 940 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 23,825 (+62);

Aircraft - 368 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 14,471 (+18);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,557 (+1);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• On the night of August 31st, the enemy launched an "Iskander-M" ballistic missile, four S-300 surface-to-air guided missiles, and 52 "Shahed-131/136" attack UAVs. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 24 attack UAVs, and 25 crashed on their own. Two drones flew in the direction of Russia, and another one went to the Republic of Belarus.

• Ukrainian military forces shot down three Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast. As a result of falling debris, four private houses were damaged. There were no casualties.

• On the morning of August 31st, a resident of Beryslav in the Kherson Oblast was killed due to the detonation of explosives dropped from a Russian drone.

• On Friday, Russian military forces in Kherson Oblast targeted an educational institution, an administrative building, a banking facility, and a store; residential complexes in the region, including two high-rise buildings and eleven private houses. Three people were injured.

• At least five civilians in the city of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, were killed as a result of Russian shelling on the morning of August 31. Shells hit a private house and an apartment building.

• At 14:55, the occupiers struck the village of Cherkaska Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast, causing a house to catch fire. Two people were killed, and at least eight others were injured.

• Throughout the previous day, August 30th, the Russians carried out 95 shelling attacks on 13 communities in the Sumy Oblast, injuring one person.