Russia’s war on Ukraine. 31.03.26

Operational situation

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On the Northern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Novodmytrivka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces struck enemy concentration areas near Basivka and Nova Tavilzhanka in Belgorod Oblast.

On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Lyptsi, Vilcha, Zybyne, and Okhrymivka, in the direction of Verkhnya Pysarivka and Khatnie.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Ambarne.

On the Kupyansk Direction, Russian forces fought for Novoosynove, attacked near Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Kurylivka, Bohuslavka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Novoplatonivka, Borivska Andriivka, Novoserhiyivka, Cherneshchyna, Korovyi Yar, and Oleksandrivka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces hold Kivsharivka and captured four soldiers of the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army.

On the Sloviansk Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the south of Yampil and west of Stavky.

Russian forces attacked near Lyman, Drobysheve, Yarova, Svyatohirsk, Zakitne, Platonivka, Kalenyky, and Riznykivka, in the direction of Rai-Oleksandrivka, near Fedorivka Druha.

On the Kostyantynivka Direction, Ukrainain Defense Forces advanced along the T0504 Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka highway east of Kostyantynivka.

Russian forces advanced southwest of Stepanivka, attacked near Kostyantynivka, Mykolaivka, Kleban-Byk, Pleshchiivka, Stepanivka, Pavlivka, Rusyn Yar, Novopavlivka, and Sofiivka.

On the Pokrovsk Direction, Russian forces attacked in the direction of Kucherovyi Yar and Hannivka, near Pokrovsk and Hryshyne, in the direction of Novooleksandrivka, near Rodynske, Bilytske, Myrnohrad, Udachne, and Molodetske.

On the Oleksandrivka Direction, Russian forces attacked near Novomykolayivka, Bilyayivka, Dachne, Filiya, Ivanivka, Andriivka-Klevtsove, Sichneve, Zlahoda, Berezove, Oleksandrohrad, Ternove, Krasnohirske, and Rybne, in the direction of Verbove and Vyshneve.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked from Dobropasove in the direction of Hai and struck an enemy concentration area near Berezove.

On the Huliaypole Direction, Russian forces advanced in the southeastern part of Myrne, attacked near Huliaypole and Olenokostyantynivka, in the direction of Verkhnya Tersa and Vozdvyzhivka, near Varvarivka, in the direction of Dobropillya and Huliaypilske, near Zaliznychne, in the direction of Staroukrainka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces struck an enemy UAV unit command post and position area near Huliaypole.

On the Orikhiv Direction, the 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Combined Arms Army advanced on the southeastern outskirts of Luhivske. Russian forces attacked near Bilohirya, Kamianske, Prymorske, and Stepnohirsk.

On the Prydniprovske Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces struck an S-400 SAM system launcher near Hvardiyske.

Supporting operation:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the “Atlant Aero” plant and the “Beriev” aircraft plant in Taganrog.

Overall assessment of changes in the operational situation:

• On the Sloviansk Direction, Russian forces have increased UAV employment thanks to improving weather conditions and have intensified the use of booby-trap drones along the main routes used by Ukrainian forces.

• Russian forces continue guided aerial bomb strikes on Kostyantynivka to complicate Ukrainian logistics and destroy fortifications ahead of an offensive, completely destroying Kostyantynivka’s infrastructure.

• On the Pokrovsk Direction, Russian forces have somewhat reduced their offensive tempo due to losses and the need to restore combat capability and are attempting to restore normal communications. Russian forces conduct frontal assaults on Hryshyne after failing to envelop the settlement and attack daily with infantry groups.

• On the Oleksandrivka Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated 9 settlements, including 2 in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and 7 in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and cleared 3 more settlements. The rapid advance of Ukrainian Defense Forces units in this area has disoriented the enemy, complicating the deployment of its reserves. The occupiers maintain a significant presence on this direction but have not built up forces since winter. Most Russian assault groups do not reach the front line, as Ukrainian UAVs detect them at a depth of up to 50 km from the front line and strike them at 25 km.

Change in the line of contact (LoC), directions of attacks and counterattacks:

• There were 140 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk Directions, one combat engagement took place.

• On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, the enemy made three attempts to breach defensive lines in the areas of Starytsya and Vovchansk, and toward Khatnie.

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked 11 times toward Novoosynove, Kurylivka, Borivska Andriivka, Pishchane, and Kupyansk.

• On the Sloviansk Direction, 8 enemy attempts to penetrate the defense in the areas of Drobysheve and Novoyehorivka, and to advance in the areas of Rai-Oleksandrivka and Zakitne were stopped.

• On the Kostyantynivka Direction, the enemy carried out 17 attacks near Kostyantynivka, Illinivka, Kleban-Byk, Pleshchiivka, Ivanopillya, Novopavlivka, Stepanivka, and Sofiivka.

• On the Pokrovsk Direction, 29 enemy assault actions were stopped in the areas of Toretske, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Pokrovsk, Hryshyne, Udachne, Novomykolayivka, Novopidhorodnie, and Molodetske.

• On the Oleksandrivka Direction, the enemy attacked 9 times in the areas of Berezove, Kalynivske, and Zlahoda, and toward Oleksandrohrad and Verbove.

• On the Huliaypole Direction, 13 enemy attacks took place in the areas of Huliaypole and Bilohirya, and toward Huliaypilske, Staroukrainka, and Zaliznychne.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps operates near Volodymyrivka; the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade operates in the border areas of Kursk Oblast; the 51st and 119th Airborne Regiments of the 106th Airborne Division operate near Yunakivka.

• The 122nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army operates near the Oskil River.

• The 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army fights for Fedorivka Druha; the 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Combined Arms Army strikes east of Lyman; the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army strikes west of Stavky; the 204th Separate SOF Regiment strikes near Yampil.

• The 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps strikes on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka; the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps and units of the “Rubikon” Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies strike in Kostyantynivka.

• The 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army strikes in the direction of Dobropillya; the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army conducts reconnaissance in support of UAV operators of the 57th Separate SOF Company of the 8th Combined Arms Army near Dobropillya, Bilytske, and Vodyanske.

• Units of the “Rubikon” Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies strike north of Serhiivka; units of the “Grom-Kaskad” UAV brigade of the 4th Army of the Air Force and Air Defense strike in the area of the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration.

• The 14th Separate SOF Brigade strikes near Novohryhorivka.

• The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army strikes near Hirke.

• The 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army intercepts Ukrainian UAVs on the Kherson Direction. The 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division strikes on the right bank of the Dnipro River.

Possible operation situation developments:

• Two offensive operations should be expected starting from the end of April 2026 — the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk and the Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia operations. The disruption of the enemy’s summer offensive will lead to a prolonged loss of offensive capabilities, depletion of resources, and will provide a real chance to end the war. The Lyman, Sloviansk, and Kostyantynivka Directions are acquiring strategic significance, as the enemy’s military-political leadership is urgently requiring several convincing operational victories that can be presented as victory in the entire war.

• The enemy “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping will continue to operate simultaneously along the Northern Slobozhansky Direction, the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, and the Velykyi Burluk Direction and will attempt to seize as large an area as possible in Sumy Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast with the aim of subsequent political bargaining for their exchange for territories in Donetsk Oblast that the enemy will be unable to seize.

• The “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping command will focus on Kupyansk and expanding the southern part of the bridgehead on the Oskil rather than on tactical operations in the border zone. The 121st and 122nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division will actively support the advance of 1st Tank Army forces from the north in its offensive on Kupyansk and may be reinforced by a number of elements of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division as part of such a decision.

• In the Kupyansk area, forces of the 1st Tank Army (47th Tank Division, 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade), elements of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, 4th Tank Division, and 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army will under any circumstances attempt to eliminate the Defense Forces bridgehead east of Kupyansk and seize the city in the near term. The 1st Tank Army delivers its main effort in the direction of Pishchane–Kurylivka, that is, in the 47th Tank Division’s offensive sector, which is attempting to break through to Kivsharivka, consolidate there, and reach Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi with its main forces. The 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and forward units of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army periodically attempt to break through to Zaoskillia from the direction of Lyman Pershyi and in the direction of Vilshana–Petropavlivka, restore their positions in the western part of Kupyansk by attacking along the Oskil River from their bridgehead on it, with the aim of pinning Ukrainian Defense Forces units against the river or forcing them to withdraw from the Kolisnykivka and Hlushkivka area northward, while simultaneously preventing them from organizing a stable defense in the Zaoskillia area and in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. The task of seizing Kupyansk is currently of considerable importance to Russian military and political leadership, yet the Kupyansk Direction is unlikely to become the main focus of the enemy’s offensive campaign.

• As a result of the general offensive by the flank groups of the adversary’s 3rd Combined Arms Army along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets and on both sides of the Sloviansk – Bakhmut road in previous months, including the capture of Siversk, the command of the adversary’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping has gained a number of new tactical opportunities, in addition to the possibility of encircling units of the Defense Forces’ 3rd Separate Corps east of Rai-Oleksandrivka. One option for further actions could be assisting the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the adversary’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping in the elimination of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ Lyman bridgehead by cutting off its logistics with a breakthrough into the Mykolaivka area or reaching the immediate approaches to Kramatorsk from the east with a breakthrough to the Vasylivska Pustosh – Vasyutynske line.

• On the Kostyantynivka direction, the enemy “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will attempt to seize the Druzhkivka–Kostyantynivka agglomeration by enveloping the flanks of Kostyantynivka, while simultaneously breaking through to the near approaches to Druzhkivka, after which it will assault Kostyantynivka and push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Druzhkivka area under the threat of encirclement. Enemy forces will advance toward the Malotaranivka–Semenivka–Bilokuzmynivka–Komyshuvakha area. Ukrainian Defense Forces will be forced to withdraw from the area between Kostyantynivka and the Kleban-Byk Reservoir under the threat of encirclement to the area north of road T0504, which will slow the assault actions of the enemy’s 3rd Army Corps in Kostyantynivka.

• On the Dobropillya Direction, in the near term the enemy will attempt to break through to the northwest, striking with the adjacent flanks of the 2nd and 51st Combined Arms Armies and breaking through to the Novohryshyne–Dobropillya (village)–Chernihivka–Shevchenko area, i.e. reaching the near approaches to Dobropillya city from the south. In the operational zone of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping, Russian forces can no longer simultaneously break through to Dobropillya from the south, southeast, and east, meaning they are already forced to accomplish this task sequentially. It is likely that the 2nd Combined Arms Army will first break through from the direction of Pokrovsk to the near approaches to Dobropillya from the south, after which the main effort of the “”Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping command will shift to the 51st Combined Arms Army’s sector, which will break through to the city from the east and southeast, following which the assault on Dobropillya will begin.

• On the Oleksandrivka Direction, units of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, operating on the left flank of the 29th Combined Arms Army, will be forced to withdraw to the Voskresenka–Maliivka line and attempt to hold it; the forces of the 29th Combined Arms Army as a whole will be forced to withdraw from the Vovcha river on their left flank.

• On the Huliaypole Direction, the 5th Combined Arms Army will in the near term attempt to break through to the Verkhnya Tersa–Huliaypilske line, with its forward units already pushing in the direction of Verkhnya Tersa from Zaliznychne and Zelene and attacking along the Huliaypole–Orikhiv road toward Huliaypilske from Zaliznychne and from Dorozhnyanka. In addition, the army will attempt to restore its positions along the Khaychur river.

• On the Orikhiv Direction, after several failed attempts to bring Mala Tokmachka and the surrounding area under control from the west, the 76th Air Assault Division will shift its main effort axis to the northeast — along the Bilohirya–Luhivske line — in an attempt to support the advance on the adjacent flank of the 5th and 35th Combined Arms Armies, which are operating southwest of Huliaypole and have advanced in the area of Myrne and north of Zahirne.

• On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 31.03.26

Personnel - almost 1,297 670 (+970);

Tanks – 11,826 (+2);

Armored combat vehicles ‒ 24,324 (+7);

Artillery systems – 39,110 (+61);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,709 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,338 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 86,359 (+199);

Aircraft - 435 (0);

Helicopters – 350 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 208,827 (+2,296);

Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 4,491 (0);

Boats/ships – 35 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since the evening of March 30, Russian troops attacked Ukraine with 289 UAVs of the Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas, and other models. As of 08:00 on Tuesday, March 31, air defense forces managed to shoot down or suppressed 267 drones, of which about 200 were Shahed-type. Hits by 20 strike UAVs were recorded at 11 locations, along with falling debris in 6 places. As of the morning, the attack continues.

• According to the head of the Odesa Oblast Military Administration Oleh Kiper, towards the morning of March 31, Russian troops attacked Odesa with UAVs. In the Kyivskyi district, a hit on a nine-story residential building was recorded, where the facade, balconies, and glazing from the second to the fourth floors were damaged. As a result of the strike, a fire broke out, and a 50-year-old man was injured.

• According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, on the night of March 31, Russian occupation troops attacked Poltava. As a result of the strike, a high-rise building was damaged, from which rescuers evacuated residents. One person is known to have been killed and four were injured, including two children. A hit on an infrastructure facility was also recorded.

• According to the head of the Sloviansk City Military Administration Vadym Liakh, Russian occupiers launched an airstrike on the private sector of Sloviansk, having preliminarily dropped two 250-kilogram high-explosive aerial bombs. As a result of the attack, at least three civilians were injured, including a 12-year-old girl. Damage to at least 22 private houses and 3 cars was also recorded.

• According to the Ukrzaliznytsia press service, Russian troops launched a strike on the railway infrastructure of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast. As a result of the attack, a locomotive depot and railway facilities were damaged, and windows in the station building were partially blown out. Four locomotive depot employees were injured; all were hospitalized, with one female employee in serious condition.

• On March 31, a Russian drone launched a strike on the territory of a non-operating enterprise in Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast; as a result of the attack, a woman and three police officers were injured, and a critical infrastructure facility was damaged.

• On March 31, a Russian drone hit a civilian vehicle in the Velyka Pysarivka community in Sumy Oblast, resulting in a 37-year-old man sustaining fatal injuries.

• According to the head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council Oleksandr Vilkul, Russian invaders are attacking the city’s infrastructure facilities. Explosions were heard in Kryvyi Rih. Earlier, at 17:48, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warned of an enemy UAV over the city.

• According to the head of the Poltava Oblast Military Administration Vitalii Diakivnych, on the evening of March 30 in the Poltava district, the falling of enemy UAV debris on a multi-apartment building was recorded. As a result of the incident, one person was killed and three sustained injuries. Two victims, including an eleven-year-old boy, were hospitalized.

• According to the head of the Novhorod-Siverskyi District State Administration Oleksandr Seliverstov, on March 31, another attempt at remote mining by Russian troops was recorded in the district territory. Local residents are warned that explosive objects may suddenly appear in yards, on roads, and on roadsides. Citizens are urged to be as careful as possible.