Russia's war on Ukraine. 31.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, the enemy, attempting to bypass Nikolaevo-Daryino from the south, is maneuvering through the northern districts of Sumy Oblast near the international border. They advanced to the northern outskirts of Zhuravka and west of the village, northeast of Sverdlivkovo, along the Ivnitsia River in the direction of Highway 38N-071 (northeast of Malaya Loknia), and attacked in the areas of Sverdlivkovo, Guevo, and Makhnovka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the northern part of Vovchansk.
Russian forces continued assault operations near Kozacha Lopan.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Petropavlivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zahryzove, Kolisnykivka, Novoosynove, near Kopanky, and around Makiivka, Nevske, and Novoyehorivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Topoli.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces launched unsuccessful attacks in the areas of Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, Terny, Novolyubivka, and Torske.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces made minor advances in Bilohorivka and attempted to establish control over the eastern section of Verkhnokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced along Dniprovska and Vysokovoltna streets, reached the "Shevchenko" and "Workshop No. 2" neighborhoods, captured most of the "Pivnichnyi" neighborhood in Chasiv Yar, and south of the city, took positions at the top of the slag heap on the western edge of the "Blok-9" mine. They also attacked near Mykolaivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Ozaryanivka, and Predtechyne.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced into the industrial zone in the north of Toretsk and attacked near Krymske and Shcherbynivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions near Krymske.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced west of Novoandriivka and counterattacked near Nadiivka.
Russian forces advanced near Kotlyne, in the forested area south of Uspenivka, north of Vozdvyzhenka, and conducted assault operations in the areas of Malynivka, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Novotoretske, Myroliubivka, Lysivka, Vidrodzhennya, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Novoukrainka, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, and Yasynove.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced to the eastern outskirts of Andriivka, the southern outskirts of Dachne, towards Ulakly, southwest of Konstyantynopil. They also attacked near Andriivka, Shevchenkove, Dachne, Konstyantynopil, Ulakly, Bahatyr, and are maneuvering around Rozlyv.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces are advancing north and northwest of Velyka Novosilka and attacked near Novoocheretuvate, Novyi Komar, Rozdolne, and Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Robotyne, reached Tsentralna Street in Kamianske, and moved into the adjacent dam area.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces captured Velykyi Sokolin Island.
General conclusion:
The enemy is making efforts to advance toward the northern outskirts of Kupyansk.
Russian forces quickly regrouped after capturing most of Velyka Novosilka and simultaneously attacked near Rozdolne on the Huliaypole direction and near Andriivka on the Novopavlivka direction.
The 170 mm self-propelled artillery "Koksan" M1989, produced by North Korea and previously transferred to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, was spotted in Kursk Oblast, on the Lyman direction, and is being used for fire raids across the state border.
According to South Korean intelligence estimates, North Korean contingent losses amount to more than 300 killed and 2,700 wounded due to injuries, illnesses, and accidents, meaning up to 25-30% of the grouping has been lost, including units from the Special Operations Forces of the Korean People's Army.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 150 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, there was one engagement with Russian forces toward Lyptsi. The enemy did not conduct offensive operations.
On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled three enemy attacks in the areas of Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, and Nova Kruhlyakivka.
On the Lyman direction, the number of engagements reached 11. The occupiers concentrated their main efforts in the areas of Kopanky, Novolyubivka, Balka Zhuravka, Yampolivka, Zelena Dolyna, Terny, and Kolodyazi.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked nine times in the areas of Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 enemy attempts to advance near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Stupochky, Chasiv Yar, and Predtechyne.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses 13 times in the areas of Toretsk, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Krymske.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 71 attacks. The enemy attempted to advance near Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Novotoretske, Andriivka, Zvirove, Promin, Pokrovsk, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Udachne, Yasynove, Shevchenko, and Dachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy. The occupiers attempted twice to break through Ukrainian defensive lines in the areas of Konstyantynopil and Rozlyv.
On the Huliaypole direction, the occupiers launched four attacks on the areas of Novopil and Novosilka.
Seven enemy attacks were repelled on the Prydniprovskyi direction.
On the Kursk direction, 11 engagements took place, and the aggressor carried out 17 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a drone airstrike near Druzhba in Bryansk Oblast on the Novozybkov oil pumping station, which is part of the Druzhba pipeline and belongs to Transneft.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army is advancing on the Borova direction, while the 16th Separate SOF Brigade is operating near Hrekivka.
The 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division is engaged in combat in the "Shevchenko" neighborhood of Chasiv Yar, while the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army is advancing near Mykolaivka.
The 80th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion and the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army operate near Toretsk.
The 1195th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 41st Combined Arms Army is advancing on the Pokrovsk direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations will attempt to leverage tactical advantages within and near Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead southwest of Toretsk. For this purpose, the intensity of combat operations southwest of Toretsk will be increased.
The further enemy actions on the Novopavlivka direction will aim to prevent the consolidation of "Khortytsia" OSG units in the Rozlyv–Konstyantynopil–Andriivka–Ulakly area. The Russian military command is likely to simultaneously intensify pressure with forces from the 90th Tank Division and increase efforts in the operational zone of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. Troops from the 8th Combined Arms Army (20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions) of the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping are expected to participate in these actions, with some units likely being redeployed after the withdrawal of the "Khortytsia" OSG from the remaining positions at the Kurakhove bridgehead.
If the Russian military command plans to prioritize the capture of the "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast in the spring and summer of 2025, it will be forced to intensify operational activity on the Toretsk direction in the near future. At the same time, capturing Pokrovsk will remain the primary operational objective of the Russian military command in Donetsk Oblast. Consequently, the redeployment of Eastern Military District troops to the Toretsk or Kramatorsk directions would signify a shift in the operational priorities of the occupying forces.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 31.01.25
Personnel - almost 837,610 (+1,670);
Tanks 9,893 (+3);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,631 (+177);
Artillery systems – 22,445 (+33);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,265 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,050 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 35,552 (+101);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 23,573 (+63);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,054 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of January 31, Russia attacked Ukraine with 102 Shahed-type strike drones and various types of decoy drones. Air defense forces shot down 59 drones.
In Khmelnytskyi Oblast, private houses were damaged as a result of a nighttime attack by Shahed-type strike drones.
On the morning of January 31, Russian occupiers carried out three strikes on border areas and settlements in Sumy Oblast, injuring three people.
As a result of a Shahed drone attack on Chornomorsk, Odesa Oblast, during the night of January 31, there are power supply issues affecting parts of Chornomorsk and its suburbs. Four people were injured.
In the morning, Russians once again shelled communities in Nikopol District, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring two people.
During the day on January 31, Russian forces shelled the border Novhorod-Siversk community in Chernihiv Oblast with mortars. A 59-year-old local resident was injured when a shell hit a private house.
In the evening, Russian forces carried out a drone strike on Kherson, injuring a 44-year-old man.
In the evening, Russian occupiers launched ballistic missile attacks on the historic city center of Odesa. Reports indicate two people were injured. The Bristol Hotel was damaged.
In Kharkiv Oblast, three people were injured in Russian attacks over the past day.
On January 30, Russian forces killed one resident of Donetsk Oblast and injured 18 others.
In Kherson Oblast, on January 30, nine people were injured due to Russian aggression.
The rapid response unit base of the Ukrainian Red Cross, located in the city of Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast, was damaged for the third time as a result of a Russian attack. This occurred on January 22 when occupiers attacked a rented office building with a drone. At the time of the attack, a team of 11 volunteer rotation members from the "East" mission was present. "None of the volunteers were injured, but the building and surrounding area sustained significant damage," the organization reported.
In the city of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, where the enemy is just two kilometers away, about 3,000 people remain, while all children have been evacuated.
Hi