Russia's war on Ukraine. 30.10.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attempted to storm Ukrainian positions 4 times near the areas of Vovchansk and Lyptsi.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked 22 times. Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 17 attacks near Synkivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Novoosynove, Berestove, Bohuslavka, and Lozova. Five combat clashes are ongoing near Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, Kolisnykivka, and Novoosynove. On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces 15 times in the areas of Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, Cherneshchyna, Novomykhailivka, Nevske, Terny, Torske, Serebrianka, and Yampolivka. All attacks were repelled. On the Siversk direction, the enemy attempted 13 assaults to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from positions near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Zvanivka, and Ivano-Dariivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled two attempts by invaders to advance near the area of Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, the occupiers attacked 4 times, and fighting continues near Shcherbynivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the aggressor attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces positions 20 times in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Krutyi Yar, Selydove, and Vyshneve. The enemy’s main efforts remain concentrated on the Kurakhove direction, with 42 attempts to advance. Fighting is primarily taking place near Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Maksymilianivka, Dalnie, Antonivka, Katerynivka, Berestky, Illinka, and Trudove. On the Vremivka direction, the aggressor launched 6 attacks on the front line near Novoukrainka, Yasna Polyana, and Shakhtarske.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy conducted 4 unsuccessful assaults on Ukrainian positions.

General conclusion:

• The capture of Selydove by enemy forces indicates a continuation of their advance directly toward Pokrovsk, necessitating the withdrawal of “Tavriya” OSG units from the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir.

• In March 2022, Russian forces advanced at an average speed of 1,265 square kilometers per day, which is approximately 90 times faster than the 14 square kilometers Russian forces captured per day in September 2024.

• The 51st Combined Arms Army is distributed across two separate tactical directions — Toretsk and Kurakhove — located on the northern and southern flanks of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping. This is a rather unusual deployment of an army, as such a setup prevents the 51st Combined Arms Army from focusing efforts on a single direction.

• The deployment of the 61st Separate Marines Brigade in the rear of the 2nd Combined Arms Army on the Pokrovsk direction highlights an urgent need for reserves that outweighs the needs of the group stationed in Kursk Oblast.

• n the Pokrovsk direction, the onset of rainy weather is reducing the activity of enemy drones.

• Russian forces are attempting to bypass the Kurakhove Reservoir from the northwest, south, and southwest, seeking to avoid difficult terrain and potentially force Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Kurakhove area under the threat of encirclement.

• Russian troops are trying to advance from Novodmytrivka to Andriivka via Sontsivka and Shevchenko, attempting to bypass the area south of Kurakhove, advancing toward Konstantynopil from Yasna Polyana, and moving toward Uspenivka to secure their flank.

• On October 29, Russia's Strategic Missile Forces launched "Yars" ground-based ICBMs, "Sineva" and "Bulava" SLBMs, and air-launched cruise missiles. This should be viewed as a form of reflexive control, intended to pressure Western decision-makers to hold back and reduce their support for Ukraine.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 158 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces repelled “Siversk” OTG attacks near Daryino and Novoivanovka, with ongoing fighting in the areas of Liubimovka, Nizhniy Klin, Novoivanovka, Zelionyi Put, Nikolaevo-Daryino, and Plekhovo.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued localized attacks near Vovchansk but failed to advance.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Kolisnykivka, in the area of Kruhlyakivka, east of Andriivka, and are attempting to consolidate on the left bank of the Oskil River. They continued to advance in the areas of Holubivka, Synkivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Berestove, Cherneshchyna, Novoosynove, Druzhelyubivka, and Hrekivka.

• On the Lyman direction, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army is approaching the northern outskirts of Terny. Russian forces attacked near Terny, Yampolivka, Zarichne, and Torske.  

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance near Bilohorivka, close to Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Zvanivka.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their unsuccessful offensive near Chasiv Yar and the area of Stupochky.

• On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions along Chervonyi Provulok in the center of Toretsk.

• Russian forces attacked near Toretsk, close to Shcherbynivka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, after the capture of Selydove, the main forces of the enemy’s “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping, the 41st Combined Arms Army, and the main forces of the 2nd Combined Arms Army concentrated in a relatively narrow corridor between Lozuvatske and Novohrodivka. The 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army are continuing offensive actions in the area of Selydove, specifically towards Vyshneve–Hryhorivka and Novohrodivka–Lysivka. This operational setup by the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping indicates preparation for a renewed offensive toward Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

• Russian forces advanced in the western and central parts of Selydove, in the center of Novodmytrivka, and north and southeast of the town, as well as to the southwest of Selydove and south of Hirnyk.

• Occupying forces conducted offensive actions in the areas of Zoryane, Kurakhivka, Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, and Novodmytrivka.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced east of Kurakhove. Units of the 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division from the 3rd Army Corps and the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division from the 8th Combined Arms Army are engaged in battles for Katerynivka. The enemy continued offensive actions in the areas of Maksymilianivka, Dalnie, Antonivka, and Trudove.

• “Tavriya” OSG units counterattacked near Kurakhove.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Bohoyavlenka and in the southern part of Yasna Polyana. Fighting continues for control over Shakhtarske. The enemy advanced west and east of Bohoyavlenka, in the center of Novoukrainka and west of the town, southeast of Yasna Polyana, and attacked in the areas of Novoukrainka, Yasna Polyana, Shakhtarske, and Bohoyavlenka.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units from the 61st Separate Marines Brigade of the Northern Fleet were sighted in the operational zone of the enemy's 2nd Combined Arms Army on the Pokrovsk direction; these units are redeployed from the area near Oleshky in Kherson Oblast.

• The 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat on the Kurakhove direction, although some of its units and the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet are active in Yasna Polyana.

• The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation continues to recruit prisoners. On October 10, an order was issued to form assault units — the 1435th Motorized Rifle Regiment within the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army and the 1437th Motorized Rifle Regiment within the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army.

Possible operation situation developments:

• To cross the Vovcha River and create conditions for further advancement toward Bilyi Kolodyaz and Rubizhne, the enemy around Vovchansk may attempt to bypass the city, either by advancing from the east toward Vovchanski Khutory through Tykhe or by resuming attacks toward Buhruvatka–Starytsia or along one of the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River. In another direction, the enemy may shift their offensive focus and attempt to reach the Traviyanske Reservoir dam via the summer houses from Hlyboke or concentrate their main efforts along the Zelene–Neskuchne line, moving generally toward Vesele along the Murom River.

• The command of the enemy's 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade on the Kupyansk direction in the near future will attempt to advance eastward and cut off all roads leading to Synkivka from the south, reach the Oskil River across from the village of Holubivka on the right bank, in order to force the "Khortytsia" OSG forward units defending in the Synkivka area to retreat towards Petropavlivka.

• The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.

• If the enemy achieves success on the Lyman and Kupyansk directions (for example, by breaking through to the Oskil River near Borova) and establishes a northern flank of the Siversk salient beyond the river, the importance of the operational area of the 3rd Army, particularly its left flank south of Siversk, will sharply increase in relation to both Siversk and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• In the near future, the "Tavriya" OSG is expected to fully withdraw from the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir. The future defense of Kurakhove remains uncertain, as the critical defense hub that enabled the retention of territory north of the reservoir (the town of Hirnyk) was lost following the enemy's capture of Ukrainsk and breakthrough to Tsukuryne.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.

• The enemy has reached a line approximately 7.5-8 km from the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, making it entirely possible that the Russian military command may attempt to bypass Kostyantynivka and penetrate the defenses on its outskirts through multiple frontal assaults along the shortest route. All significant changes and regroupings of enemy forces from the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping should be continuously monitored.

• The most likely directions of enemy action could be the junction of the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts and the direction toward Dvorichna along the right bank of the Oskil River. Currently, the enemy does not have sufficient forces and resources to carry out such an operation.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.10.24  

Personnel - almost 693,640 (+1,560); 

Tanks 9,137 (+8);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,433 (+29); 

Artillery systems – 19,955 (+38);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,242 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 986 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 27,840 (+91);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 17,979 (+40);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2625 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• During the night of October 30, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 62 strike UAVs and drones of an unidentified type and launched a missile strike on the residential sector in Sumy Oblast. A total of 33 enemy drones were destroyed, while 25 were lost from radar tracking. Enemy tactical aviation continues to strike front-line areas in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk directions with guided bombs.

• In Kyiv, fires broke out at night due to falling debris from enemy drones. In a residential building in the Solomyanskyi district, nine people were injured, including an 11-year-old girl.

• Around noon, the Russian army attacked Pryozerne in Kherson Oblast. A 38-year-old man was killed, and two others were injured due to the shelling.

• Around 16:00, Russian occupying forces shelled Kupyansk district in Kharkiv Oblast with Grad MLRS and struck with guided bombs. One person was killed, and four civilians and two police officers were injured.

• Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 107 attacks on Sumy Oblast, injuring a resident of the Velykopysarivka community. There were 210 explosions across 12 communities.

• In the past day, occupiers struck Zaporizhzhia Oblast 337 times, targeting 10 towns and villages. There were seven reports of damage to residential buildings and infrastructure, though no civilians were harmed.

• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed on the premises of a Russian university in Gudermes that he says was attacked by a UAV yesterday. "Each strategic site in the republic holds up to 10 Ukrainian prisoners," stated Kadyrov, who also reportedly ordered his commanders to stop taking Ukrainian fighters as prisoners.

• Since 2022, 156 schools and kindergartens in Kyiv have been destroyed or damaged due to Russian attacks. Last night, debris from a drone damaged a kindergarten building in the Solomyanskyi district.