Russia's war on Ukraine. 30.09.24
Russia's war on Ukraine. 30.09.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, 3 clashes occurred near Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, 13 battles took place. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Vyshneve, Kucherivka, Kruhlyakivka, Novoosynove, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, there were 12 engagements, with Russian forces attacking near Makiivka, Zarichne, Bilohorivka, Nevske, and the Serebriansk Forest area. On the Siversk direction, one battle took place near Verkhnyokamianske. On the Kramatorsk direction, 8 engagements occurred, with Ukrainian Defense Forces repelling Russian assaults near Bila Hora and Chasiv Yar. On the Toretsk direction, 11 battles were reported, especially near Shcherbynivka, Toretsk, and Nelipivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 28 enemy attacks near Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Novotoretske, Mykolaivka, Lisivka, Selydove, Zelene Pole, Krutyi Yar, and Zhuravka, with the highest concentration of attacks near Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, 25 enemy attacks were stopped near Tsukuryne, Oleksandropil, Heorhiivka, Bohoyavlenka, Katerynivka, and Kostyantynivka. On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces conducted 17 assaults near Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, Katerynivka, and Yelyzavetivka. Three clashes occurred on the Orikhiv direction, where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Novodanylivka.
There were no significant changes on the Hulyaipole and Prydniprovskiy directions. On the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of enemy offensive group formations were detected.
At the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy actively uses guided aerial bombs and attack drones and continues mortar and artillery shelling of Ukrainian towns and villages. Russian guided bombs are also reported exploding in the Kursk Oblast, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces conduct operations.
General conclusion:
The "Siversk" OTG offensive Zvannoye, Glushkovo, and the eponymous railway station has nearly halted. Troops are undergoing regrouping, rotation, reserve reinforcement, and resupply.
The Russian offensive in the Glushkovo district has also stopped. The enemy has exhausted its forces and resources. The Russian Armed Forces are accumulating forces in Kursk Oblast for active operations in October-November.
The advancement of the Russian "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping threatens to cut off the supply routes of the Ukrainian "Khortytsia" OSG on the eastern bank of the Oskil River but will not lead to a collapse of the defense. Pushing Ukrainian units to the western bank may take up to two months.
Attempts by the Russian "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping to reach Torske and encircle Ukrainian units between Nevske and Torske have failed. Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully counterattacked, likely causing a stagnation of combat on the Lyman direction for several days to weeks.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy withdrew between a quarter and a third of its forces in August-September, redeploying them to Kursk Oblast. A similar trend is observed on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove directions. Ukrainian defense forces have exploited this development.
The Russian "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping retains a numerical advantage of 4 to 1 on the Toretsk direction and will likely continue to advance slowly.
The Russian "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping has almost encircled Vuhledar. The loss of Vuhledar may force the Ukrainian "Tavriya" OSG to retreat 10-15 km westward, with its southern flank anchored on Velyka Novosilka and its northern flank on Kurakhove, unless the enemy seizes it first.
The Russian grouping amassed near Makarivka began attacking Ukrainian positions on September 27, gradually increasing the intensity of strikes in an effort to break through to Velyka Novosilka.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 153 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction "Siversk" OTG advanced in the Glushkovo district west and northwest of Vesioloe, capturing the northwestern part of the village. They attacked near Liubimovka, Kremyanoe, Pogrebki, Kamyshovka, and Cherkasskoe Porechie, and operate in the area of Olgovka.
Russian forces counterattacked near Liubimovka, Daryino, Nikolaevo-Daryino, and Plekhovo.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tykhe. The enemy reinforced the 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps near Hlyboke with an assault unit from the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, and transferred additional personnel to the positions of the 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army in Vovchansk to replenish losses.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive, advancing to the southern outskirts of Andriivka and continuing attacks near Synkivka, Kucherivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Tabaiivka, and Vyshneve. The 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army is fighting in the area of Dilyanka on the Synkivka-Petropavlivka line.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Makiivka, Nevske, and Zarichne, capturing Makiivka.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, and Vyimka, but failed.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued assaults near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, Bila Hora, and Kurdyumivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances in Toretsk along Druzhby Street and continued offensive actions near Nelipivka and in the direction of Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances near the railway line south of Selydove, reached the southern outskirts of Krasnyi Yar, captured Krutyi Yar, and advanced further south of Selydove, as well as east and northwest of Tsukuryne. They continue to advance toward Pokrovsk, attempting to encircle Selydove from multiple directions, and continued their offensive in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Novotoretske, Mykolaivka, Hrodivka, Krutyi Yar, Marynivka, Lisivka, Selydove, and Tsukuryne.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Heorhiivka, Oleksandropil, and Hostre, clearing the Selydove Colony No. 82 (west of Hostre), and advanced near Maksymilianivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Hostre.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continued assaults near Vuhledar but did not make advances. The enemy attacked near Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane, and Bohoyavlenka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces recently repelled a Russian assault north of Kostyantynivka, held their positions at the ventilation shafts of the Pivdennodonbaska No. 3 mine west of Vodyane, and west of the mine itself.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Robotyne and Kamianske but failed.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 24th Separate SOF Brigade is operating on the Pokrovsk direction.
The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army is operating on the Kurakhove direction. The 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army and the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army are operating near Hostre.
The 11th BARS "Kuban" detachment is operating on the Zaporizhzhia direction, the 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army is active near Kamianske.
Possible operation situation developments:
The leadership of the counter-terrorist operation in Kursk Oblast will attempt to establish a decisive advantage in forces and assets on thus direction, achieve operational and tactical surprise, and launch a simultaneous offensive on designated sectors (most likely targeting the flanks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces' "Sudzha" tactical group). The goal is rapid advancement to pre-determined lines and areas, which, if reached, would pose a real threat of encircling and defeating the "Siversk" OTG within Kursk Oblast.
The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping is focusing on advancing along the ravine east of Pishchane and through the fields to the south and north of the village, aiming to break through to Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka. Their objective is to secure positions and establish a foothold on the Oskil River.
The "Tavriya" OSG’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is expected retreat in the northwest direction in the coming days to avoid encirclement.
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk, Selydove, and Vuhledar in the short term.
Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations will concentrate efforts on maximizing their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka. This would create the necessary conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
The enemy's military command in the Azov Sea region will aim to hold the left bank of the Dnipro River both in its delta and directly on the Zaporizhzhia direction, while simultaneously attempting to create operational conditions in the operational zones of the "Vostok (East)" and "Yug (South)" Operational Groupings. This would fully prevent "Tavriya" OSG from launching any offensive operations towards Berdiansk and Mariupol.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 30.09.24
Personnel - almost 653,060 (+1,250);
Tanks 8,874 (+5);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,503 (+27);
Artillery systems – 18,822 (+27);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,204 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 963 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,548 (+53);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 16,224 (+38);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,610 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of September 30, Russian forces launched 3 missiles of various types and 73 "Shahed" drones against Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Forces shot down 1 missile and 67 drones, with one "Shahed" flying towards Belarus and three others lost in the northern part of the country. As of 8:30 AM, one drone remained airborne.
According to Ukraine’s air defense data, in total, the enemy launched 1,339 "Shahed" drones in September, of which 1,107 were shot down, and some were neutralized by electronic warfare systems. On average in September, Russia launched 44 "Shaheds" daily, with the highest number, 72, launched on September 14. There was not a single day this month without "Shahed" launches.
As a result of a nighttime Russian drone attack, a fire broke out at a critical infrastructure facility in the Bashtanka district of Mykolaiv Oblast. Air defense forces shot down 3 "Shaheds" over the Oblast.
At 10:00 AM in Kupiansk, near a former restaurant, an FPV drone strike was recorded, killing a civilian man.
On September 30, 2024, around 1:30 PM, the occupiers struck a medical facility in Hlukhiv, Shostka district of Sumy Oblast, with a drone, wounding a 58-year-old nurse. The building and vehicles were damaged.
In Kherson Oblast, on September 30, a 69-year-old resident of Veletenske was injured in a Russian drone attack while riding a bicycle.
In the afternoon of September 30, the enemy attacked two districts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In the Nikopol area, the enemy targeted Nikopol, Marhanets, and Myriv communities with FPV drones and artillery, damaging transport and industrial enterprises. In Synelnykove, the aggressor hit with a kamikaze drone, damaging a private house.
As a result of shelling and drone bombings throughout September 30 in Kherson Oblast, at least 11 people were injured.
Russian forces carried out 127 attacks on the border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts over the past day, causing a total of 459 explosions.
More than 170 families with children have been evacuated from the Kupyansk district in Kharkiv Oblast. Around 90 families still need to be evacuated as a priority.
Due to enemy shelling in Kherson, power supply disruptions are being observed.
Three children and their mother were successfully returned to Ukraine from the temporarily occupied Donetsk Oblast. The family had lived under occupation for over a year, where the children were forced to attend a Russian school. The mother received constant threats from the occupying authorities, including threats to forcibly send her children to an orphanage.
During the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian occupiers destroyed or damaged nearly a thousand libraries containing over 200 million books.