Russia's war on Ukraine. 29.11.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the occupiers carried out 11 assaults on the positions of Ukrainian units in the areas of Vovchansk, Tykhe, and Hlyboke. Enemy aviation struck Lyptsi and Neskuchne.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the enemy attacked 24 times near Fyholivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Holubivka, Kindrashivka, Zelenyi Hai, Raihorodka, Lozova, and Kruhlyakivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked 7 times in the areas of Tverdokhlibove, Hrekivka, Pershotravneve, Torske, Yampolivka, and Terny. On the Kramatorsk directions, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attempts to advance in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks in the areas of Toretsk and Dyliivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the occupiers launched 50 attacks in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Dachenske, Zhovte, Chumatske, Novyi Trud, and Pustynka. On the Kurakhove direction, the invaders made 42 attempts to advance, with most of the fighting near the settlements of Sontsivka, Berestky, Novodmytrivka, Kurakhove, Dalnie, Yelyzavetivka, Romanivka, Antonivka, Uspenivka, and Dachne. On the Vremivka direction, the aggressor launched 20 assaults on the forward defense line in the areas of Trudove, Veselyi Hai, Konstyantynopolske, Novopil, Rozlyv, Rozdolne, Sukhi Yaly, and Novodaryivka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy carried out 3 unsuccessful assaults.
General conclusion:
The immediate task of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping on the Kupyansk direction is to eliminate the northern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces' bridgehead and occupy the area of Kivsharivka – Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi – Kucherivka – Petropavlivka.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 188 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk direction, fighting continues near Daryino, Nizhniy Klin, Pogrebki, and Novoivanovka. The enemy has intensified pressure on the western and northern flanks of the "Siversk" OTG bridgehead.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attacked near Vovchansk and Tykhe, with fighting ongoing near Lyptsi and Hlyboke.
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy has established a company-level bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River and is expected to attempt to develop this tactical success in the near future. The enemy attacked in the direction of Novomlynsk, is trying to advance between Synkivka and Holubivka, expand its access to the Oskil Reservoir near Zahryzove and Hlushkivka, and create favorable conditions for a subsequent offensive toward Borova. Fighting is ongoing for Kopanky.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy concentrated efforts in the area of Terny.
On the Kramatorsk direction, fighting continues for Chasiv Yar. The enemy is attempting to advance north and south of the city, attacking near Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, and along the Bakhmut–Kostyantynivka highway.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy is attempting to bypass Toretsk by attacking from the south through Zabalka to reach Leonidove, advancing from Sukha Balka and Nelipivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy advanced near Lysivka, Zhovte, and Pushkyne, forming a southern flank to encircle Pokrovsk.
On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy advanced along the line Zorya–Berestky, clearing the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir, and attacked in Kurakhove and from positions in Dalnie toward Hannivka.
On the Vremivka direction, enemy forces attacked along the Maksymivka–Rozdolne line, continue to encircle "Tavriya" OSG forces near Kurakhove from the south, and assaulted Velyka Novosilka from the east.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 3 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
In the Kupyansk direction, an offensive operation is being conducted by the 1st Tank Army (2nd Motorized Rifle Division, 4th, 47th Tank Divisions), part of the forces of the 6th Combined Arms Army (344th, 350th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division, two motorized rifle battalions of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade), the 11th Army Corps (two motorized rifle regiments of the mobilization reserve), and several battalions from the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army, which have been transferred to the 1st Tank Army. Additionally, battalions of the 20th Combined Arms Army, which apparently also operate under the command of the 1st Tank Army headquarters.
The 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (1st, 15th Motorized Rifle Regiments, 1483rd Motorized Rifle Regiment from the mobilization reserve, 1st Tank Regiment; two tank battalions and one motorized rifle battalion have been redeployed to other directions is advancing on the main direction of the 1st Tank Army's offensive Kolisnykivka - Hlushkivka - Pishchane (lower) - Kivsharivka). The 47th Tank Division (272nd, 347th Motorized Rifle Regiments, 26th, 153rd Tank Regiments; one motorized rifle battalion and one tank battalion have been moved to Kursk Oblast) is advancing towards Novoselivka Stepova and Pishchane (upper). The 4th Tank Division is advancing towards Tabaiivka, with parts of its forces attacking toward Pishchane (upper) and on both sides of the Svatove–Kupyansk road, with the 12th and 13th Tank Regiments, 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, and two to three motorized rifle battalions of the mobilization reserve. The 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, reinforced by tactical groups of the 96th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade, volunteer assault units, BARS units, and others is advancing in the southern part of the operational zone. The reserve of the 1st Tank Army consists of the 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment. In the first-line reserve are the 371st Motorized Rifle Regiment and up to four mobilization reserve battalions, stationed in the Moscow Military District, primarily used to form marching reinforcements and as separate assault units.
The 1st Tank Army consists of up to 35,000 personnel, 390 tanks, 755–760 armored vehicles of all types, 440 artillery systems and mortars, and up to 120 MLRS. Supporting the army is the 112th Rocket Artillery Brigade, with 6–8 daily sorties allocated for both fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Kupyansk direction, near Borova, the enemy aims to achieve the following tactical objectives: break through the "Khortytsia" OSG defense near Kruhlyakivka and advance southward toward Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka; attack Lozova and move toward Nova Kruhlyakivka; breach the "Khortytsia" OSG defense at Pershotravneve toward Kopanky and Novoserhiyivka, forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from positions near Novoyehorivka under the threat of encirclement.
On the Kramatorsk direction, if the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka. South of Chasiv Yar, the enemy attacks toward Zemlyanka and Pivdenne, advancing westward and southward of Klishchiivka. Fighting continues for Andriivka; the situation on this direction is challenging. If it does not improve, Chasiv Yar could be lost by mid-January, or in the worst-case scenario, by the end of December.
On the Vremivka direction, the main forces of the 5th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" Grouping (127th Motorized Rifle Division, 57th and 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades) are expected to be deployed into the operation.
The enemy will continue advancing westward along the H15 highway toward Andriivka while simultaneously attacking the Defense Forces' bridgehead northeast of Vuhledar along the Uspenivka–Hannivka–Romanivka line, aiming to force "Tavriya" OSG units to withdraw westward under the threat of encirclement. Such a maneuver could allow Russian forces to seize advantageous tactical positions in this area and align the frontline from Sontsivka to Kostiantynopil, positioning Russian troops approximately 23 km east of the Donetsk–Dnipropetrovsk oblast border.
By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the "belt of fortresses" Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.11.24
Personnel - almost 738,660 (+2,030);
Tanks 9,458 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles – 19,339 (+33);
Artillery systems – 20,886 (+34);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,255 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,006 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 30,272 (+86);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 19,750 (+89);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,851 (+86)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of November 29, Russia attacked Ukraine with 132 strike drones of various types. Air defense forces destroyed 88 of them, 41 drones were lost from radar, and one returned to Russia.
On the night of November 29, Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblast with drones, injuring seven residents. The enemy also targeted the oblast's port and transport infrastructure. In three villages of Odesa Raion, 13 residential and summer houses, garages, railway infrastructure, and a gas pipeline were damaged.
On the evening of November 28, air defense was active in Kyiv. In the Dnipro Raion, debris from a drone caused the exterior of a clinic building to catch fire and damaged neighboring buildings. One person was reported injured. Additionally, debris from an enemy drone fell on the territory of an infrastructure facility in Kyiv's Sviatoshyn Raion.
On the morning of November 29, a Russian drone struck the Dnipro Raion of Kherson, killing a local resident.
Three operational nuclear power plants in Ukraine reduced electricity production following new Russian attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure, further threatening nuclear safety during the war, according to a statement by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi.
The bodies of 502 fallen defenders were returned to Ukraine from the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia fronts, as well as from Russian territory. However, the body of Ukrainian journalist Viktoriya Roshchyna, who died in Russian captivity, was not returned.
In Kherson, partial power restoration began after outages caused by shelling on November 28. Priority is being given to critical infrastructure facilities such as heating, water supply, and hospitals. In the next stage, electricity will be supplied to residential homes.