Russia's war on Ukraine. 29.10.24
Russia's war on Ukraine. 29.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, 4 clashes took place in the Vovchansk area.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 attacks in the areas of Kolisnykivka, Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Pershotravneve, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 15 enemy attacks in Hrekivka, Zarichne, Terny, and Torske. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces thwarted three attempts by the enemy to break through defenses near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy also attempted a single advance, focusing on the Toretsk area.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 31 attacks near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Selydove, and Vyshneve. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold the line near Zoryane, Maksymilianivka, Novodmytrivka, Katerynivka, and Antonivka, where the occupiers attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive positions 48 times. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy made 12 attempts to capture Ukrainian positions near Bohoyavlenka and Novoukrainka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the occupiers conducted 2 unsuccessful attacks and suffered losses.
General conclusion:
The Russian military command redeployed personnel from the northern area of the Pokrovsk direction to the Selydove area to support the offensive. Russian forces use artillery strikes less frequently, preferring precise FPV drone strikes.
Alternative assessments suggest that Russian medical casualties are 8-10 times higher than Ukrainian. Poor organization of medical evacuation, low-quality medical equipment at the front, and insufficient training of medical personnel in the Russian Armed Forces are noted. Political factors also heavily influence medical evacuation efforts, as the “missing in action” status is financially preferable for Russia compared to those officially listed as killed or wounded in action.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 149 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces entered Novoivanovka.
In the "Siversk" OTG operational area, Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Kremiannoe, Nizhniy Klin, Novoivanovka, Aleksandria, Liubimovka, Russkaya Konopelka, Plekhovo, and Novyi Put; they are engaged in battles for Daryino.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued localized attacks near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made slight advances within Kolisnykivka and southwest of Kruhlyakivka, moving forward in the areas of Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, and northwest of Stelmakhivka. They continued their advance near Kindrashivka, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Pershotravneve, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Lozova, Vyshneve, Hrekivka, Cherneshchyna, Novomykhailivka, and Makiivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced toward Terny, within Torske, and attacked near Zarichne, Terny, Torske, Serebrianka, and Hryhorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar but made no progress. The enemy attacked near Chasiv Yar, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Stupochky, and Predtechyne.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued their unsuccessful offensive in the Toretsk area, launching attacks near Toretsk, New York, and Shcherbynivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked north of Sverdlova Street in Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced north of Selydove, in the center of Vyshneve and northwest of it, near Novodmytrivka, east of Kreminna Balka. The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army captured Tsukuryne.
The enemy continues to advance near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Selydove, Novodmytrivka, Kurakhivka, Novoselydivka, Tsukuryne, and Vyshneve.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Maksymilianivka and on the outskirts of Kurakhove but failed.
On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack southwest of Yelyzavetivka and southwest of Katerynivka.
Russian forces advanced northeast of Shakhtarske, near and within Katerynivka, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, Zolota Nyva, and within Shakhtarske, continuing their offensive near Katerynivka, Antonivka, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, Shakhtarske, and Zolota Nyva.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 16th Separate SOF Brigade operates near Petropavlivka.
The 56th Separate SOF Battalion of the 51st Army Corps is active on the Toretsk direction.
Units of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army Corps and the 30th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 90th Tank Division are engaged in combat in Selydove. The 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps and the BARS “Sarmat” unit operate near Vyshneve.
The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 68th Army Corps are active near Katerynivka. The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army is deployed near Bohoyavlenka, with the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army Corps stationed near Shakhtarske, and the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army near Makarivka.
Possible operation situation developments:
To cross the Vovcha River and create conditions for further advancement toward Bilyi Kolodyaz and Rubizhne, the enemy around Vovchansk may attempt to bypass the city, either by advancing from the east toward Vovchanski Khutory through Tykhe or by resuming attacks toward Buhruvatka–Starytsia or along one of the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River. In another direction, the enemy may shift their offensive focus and attempt to reach the Traviyanske Reservoir dam via the summer houses from Hlyboke or concentrate their main efforts along the Zelene–Neskuchne line, moving generally toward Vesele along the Murom River.
The command of the enemy's 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade on the Kupyansk direction in the near future will attempt to advance eastward and cut off all roads leading to Synkivka from the south, reach the Oskil River across from the village of Holubivka on the right bank, in order to force the "Khortytsia" OSG forward units defending in the Synkivka area to retreat towards Petropavlivka.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.
If the enemy achieves success on the Lyman and Kupyansk directions (for example, by breaking through to the Oskil River near Borova) and establishes a northern flank of the Siversk salient beyond the river, the importance of the operational area of the 3rd Army, particularly its left flank south of Siversk, will sharply increase in relation to both Siversk and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
The enemy has reached a line approximately 7.5-8 km from the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, making it entirely possible that the Russian military command may attempt to bypass Kostyantynivka and penetrate the defenses on its outskirts through multiple frontal assaults along the shortest route. All significant changes and regroupings of enemy forces from the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping should be continuously monitored.
The most likely directions of enemy action could be the junction of the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts and the direction toward Dvorichna along the right bank of the Oskil River. Currently, the enemy does not have sufficient forces and resources to carry out such an operation.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.10.24
Personnel - almost 692,080 (+1,360);
Tanks 9,129 (+9);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,404 (+9);
Artillery systems – 19,917 (+45);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,241 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 984 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 27,749 (+89);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 17,939 (+72);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2625 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
In the early hours of Tuesday, Russia launched a ballistic strike on Kryvyi Rih and attacked Ukraine with 48 Shahed-type and unidentified drones overnight. Ukrainian Air Defense Forces shot down 26 enemy UAVs, with around 20 others losing signal and one returning to Russia.
In Kyiv, debris from Russian drones fell in the Solomianskyi and Sviatoshynskyi districts during the nighttime attack, sparking fires and injuring six people.
Late on October 28, Russian forces struck Kryvyi Rih with a missile, resulting in one fatality and 14 injuries. Two men are in critical condition, and five others were hospitalized in moderate condition. The attack partially destroyed an apartment building and damaged several more buildings, a medical facility, garages, and cars.
In the early hours of October 29, around 3:00 a.m., occupiers hit the Osnovianskyi district of Kharkiv, killing four people and injuring six. The strike targeted a residential area, destroying two houses and damaging about 20 others to varying degrees.
On the morning of October 29, Russian occupiers attacked Kherson, killing two people and injuring six. One injured woman is in serious condition at the hospital.
Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblast in daylight with two guided Kh-31P missiles that failed to reach their targets. In the Odesa district, shrapnel from one of the missiles killed a 71-year-old man by the sea.
In a report to the Verkhovna Rada before his dismissal as Prosecutor General, Andrii Kostin stated that, to date, 721 individuals are suspects, 514 are accused, and 133 war criminals have been convicted. Over 20 countries worldwide are investigating Russia's war crimes.
12,000 residents, including 57 children, remain in frontline Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.
The Joint Register of Missing Persons in Special Circumstances now includes information on over 52,000 individuals, including more than 1,700 children.
Since the beginning of 2024, Ukrainian government has provided prosthetic and orthopedic devices to around 10,000 people including 2,500 military personnel.