Russia's war on Ukraine. 29.09.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, an enemy-initiated combat engagement took place near Tykhe.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the number of combat engagements reached 14. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled attacks near Synkivka, Lozove, Tabaiivka, and Vyshneve. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 22 enemy attacks near Hrekivka, Nevske, Makiivka, Terny, Torske, and Bilohorivka. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 attacks near Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces nullified 12 enemy attempts to break through their defenses near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, and Kurdyumivka. The enemy attempted to advance 10 times on the Toretsk direction, particularly near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, and Nelipivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 39 attacks, more than half of which occurred near Selydove, Novotoretske, Mykolaivka, and Marynivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy near the settlements of Tsukuryne, Heorhiivka, Katerynivka, and Hirnyk, where the occupiers attempted 18 times to breach Ukrainian defensive lines. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy made 16 attempts to seize Ukrainian Defense Forces positions near Vuhledar, Vodyane, and Katerynivka, and attacked from Prechystivka. On the Orikhiv direction, 2 Russian assaults on Ukrainian positions near Robotyne and Kamianske were repelled.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the occupiers made 3 unsuccessful attacks and suffered losses.
On the Volyn and Polissya directions, the operational situation remains without significant changes. There are no signs of the formation of Russian offensive groupings. The enemy also did not conduct active offensive actions on the Hulyaipole direction.
Along the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy maintains a military presence, conducts reconnaissance activities, and shells the territory using kamikaze drones and guided aerial bombs for air strikes.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct operations in Kursk Oblast.
General conclusion:
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have changed their tactics and are once again using armored vehicles for assaults.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy has accumulated armored vehicles and reinforced its units with poorly trained personnel, preparing to resume active operations.
In the area of Selydove, Russian forces attack in small infantry groups without using armored vehicles. The enemy does not attempt a frontal assault on Selydove but is trying to encircle the city from the north and south.
The enemy's "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping is unlikely to conduct large-scale offensive operations on the Zaporizhzhia direction, as the defensive lines set up in this direction would make any offensive costly and unlikely to lead to significant gains.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 165 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, following an attempt to improve their tactical position within the Kursk direction, carried out by a consolidated tactical airborne group (units and subunits of the 7th Air Assault Division, 106th Airborne Division, 810th and 155th Separate Marines Brigades), the enemy is attempting to consolidate on the achieved lines and prevent further advancement of the "Siversk" OTG on the Kursk direction.
On the Kharkiv direction, the main forces of the enemy’s 6th Combined Arms Army are advancing toward Lyptsi and Vovchansk. The 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army is attempting to break through in the direction of Vovchansk–Bilyi Kolodiaz. Troops of the 11th Army Corps continue to advance toward Lyptsi and in the area of Hlyboke. The 72nd Motorized Rifle Division and the 144th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps are also deployed on this direction. Up to two tank regiments of the 47th Tank Division, several regiments and battalions of the mobilization reserve and territorial troops, as well as paramilitary formations are in reserve.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have advanced southeast of Hlushkivka, conducted offensive actions in the areas of Synkivka, Kucherivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova, Tabaiivka, Hlushkivka, and Kruhlyakivka. The 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army, with part of its forces, continues to advance toward Synkivka–Petropavlivka, heading toward Kupyansk.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Hrekivka, Nevske, Makiivka, Novosadove, Terny, Torske, and Zarichne.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Nevske.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces attempted an advance in the Bilohorivka area but were unsuccessful.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Kalynivka and continued assaults in the areas of Hryhorivka, Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Bila Hora, Stupochky, and Kurdyumivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the areas of Nelipivka, New York, and in the direction of Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the southern part of Selydove along Shevchenko Street, advanced north of Mykolaivka, and northwest of Novohrodivka in the direction of Sukhyi Yar. They continued assaults in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Mykolaivka, Hrodivka, Krutyi Yar, Dachenske, Novohrodivka, Lisivka, Marynivka, Selydove, and Tsukuryne.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault in the area of Heorhiivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced south of Katerynivka, continued to advance in the eastern part of Vuhledar, on the eastern and western flanks of Vuhledar, and conducted assaults near Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Vodyane, in Vuhledar, and in the direction of Bohoyavlenka. They continued assaults near Novodarivka and are concentrating forces near Pryiutne in preparation for future assaults in this area.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces are attempting to advance toward the outskirts of Hulyaipole, attacked near Robotyne and Maly Shcherbaky.
On the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian forces carried out numerous shelling attacks and continue to push Ukrainian units from unspecified large islands in the Dnipro River delta, though Ukrainian forces maintain a presence there. The 76th Air Assault Division is clearing the area of Krynky.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The core of the enemy's "Kursk" Operational Grouping consists of units from the 106th Airborne Division, the 7th Air Assault Division, and separate units and elements from the 11th, 14th, and 44th Army Corps, as well as the 11th and 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigades, and the 38th and 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades from the 35th Army, which were redeployed from the Polohy direction. Forces from other operational directions are gradually being regrouped to the Kursk direction, including from the Eastern Operational Zone, where the enemy is conducting intense offensive operations (artillery from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army arrived from the Kurakhove and Vuhledar direction, while elements of the 47th Tank Division and part of the "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping were redeployed from the Kupyansk and Kharkiv directions).
The enemy's "Belgorod" Operational Grouping, operating on the Vovchansk and Lyptsi directions, comprises up to 45,000 personnel, 320 tanks, up to 900 armored vehicles, 830 artillery guns and mortars, and 140 MLRS units. Formally, the "Belgorod" Operational Grouping significantly surpasses the "Kursk" Grouping and is capable of conducting larger-scale operations than "Kursk." Over the past month, the number of troops in the "Kursk" Operational Grouping has gradually increased and continues to grow (from 30-31,000 to 40-41,000), while the composition of the "Belgorod" Grouping remains relatively stable.
The formation of the 68th, 69th, and 71st Motorized Rifle Divisions, as well as the previously formed 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps, is part of the strategic reserve buildup and is specifically aimed at strengthening the "Kursk" Operational Grouping. It is expected that most of the newly formed divisions (72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps, 71st Motorized Rifle Division of the 14th Army Corps, and 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Army) will be deployed primarily on the Kursk direction.
Units of the 1st Assault Unit of the "Volki" Brigade and the 88th Volunteer Brigade "Ispaniola" are active Near Chasiv Yar.
The 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army is operating near Mykolaivka (west of Hrodivka).
The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 43rd Separate SOF Company of the 29th Army operate near Vuhledar.
The 6th Army continues to form the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, but by the end of October or early November, limited parts of it may be involved in combat operations, likely one motorized rifle regiment and the division’s sapper battalion. At the beginning of the invasion, the army consisted of only two brigades, the 25th and 138th; now, the 68th and 69th Motorized Rifle Divisions are being formed.
Possible operation situation developments:
The leadership of the counter-terrorist operation in Kursk Oblast will attempt to establish a decisive advantage in forces and assets on thus direction, achieve operational and tactical surprise, and launch a simultaneous offensive on designated sectors (most likely targeting the flanks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces' "Sudzha" tactical group). The goal is rapid advancement to pre-determined lines and areas, which, if reached, would pose a real threat of encircling and defeating the "Siversk" OTG within Kursk Oblast.
The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping is focusing on advancing along the ravine east of Pishchane and through the fields to the south and north of the village, aiming to break through to Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka. Their objective is to secure positions and establish a foothold on the Oskil River.
The "Tavriya" OSG’s 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is expected retreat in the northwest direction in the coming days to avoid encirclement.
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk, Selydove, and Vuhledar in the short term.
Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations will concentrate efforts on maximizing their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka. This would create the necessary conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
The enemy's military command in the Azov Sea region will aim to hold the left bank of the Dnipro River both in its delta and directly on the Zaporizhzhia direction, while simultaneously attempting to create operational conditions in the operational zones of the "Vostok (East)" and "Yug (South)" Operational Groupings. This would fully prevent "Tavriya" OSG from launching any offensive operations towards Berdiansk and Mariupol.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.09.24
Personnel - almost 651,810 (+1,170);
Tanks 8,869 (+9);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,476 (+38);
Artillery systems – 18,795 (+62);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,204 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 962 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,495 (+84);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 16,186 (+93);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,610 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
During the night of September 29, the enemy launched 22 Shahed-type strike drones at Ukraine, with air defense forces shooting down 15 of them. Five drones were lost from radar. Preliminary reports indicate no significant damage. The drones were intercepted over Sumy, Vinnytsia, Mykolaiv, and Odesa Oblasts.
Over the past week, the Russian army deployed nearly 900 aerial bombs, more than 300 Shahed drones, and 40 missiles, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
On Sunday morning, Russian forces carried out 13 strikes on Zaporizhzhia, destroying an apartment building and causing fires. At least 16 people were injured. The morning attack also disrupted train routes at stations in Zaporizhzhia, with the railway station building suffering damage.
Around 10:50 a.m. on Sunday, Russian forces launched guided bombs at the village of Odnorobivka in Kharkiv Oblast, injuring two local women.
In the afternoon of September 29, the Russian Federation Army attacked a border railway station in Sumy Oblast using FPV drones, injuring three people, including a train driver. Their lives are not in danger.
The Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast endured over ten attacks throughout the day. The enemy targeted local villages with heavy artillery and kamikaze drones. During an evening shelling in Nikopol, a woman was killed, and two others were injured.
On September 29, at least eight people were injured during Russian artillery shelling and drone attacks in Kherson Oblast.
Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 62 attacks on 12 communities in Sumy Oblast, resulting in 130 explosions. In the city of Sumy, 10 people were killed, and 22 others sustained various injuries.