Russia's war on Ukraine. 29.03.2024
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Khortytsia" on the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka and Terny. On the Bakhmut direction, they repelled 13 Russian attacks in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Novyi, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 enemy attacks in the area of Semenivka, where the enemy tried to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Novomykhailivka, Heorhiivka, Urozhaine, where the adversary with the aviation support attempted to breach Ukrainian defenses 22 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 8 times in the area of Robotyne, northwest of Verbove, and north of Pryiutne.
In the operational zone of the "Odesa" OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro. Over the past day the enemy made two unsuccessful assaults on their positions.
General conclusion:
The Ukrainian Defense Forces have slowed down the pace of the aggressor's troop advancement west of Avdiivka. The enemy has achieved only minor tactical successes in this direction.
Despite adverse weather conditions and difficult terrain, the enemy's military command continues to sustain the pace of their offensive operations. Their objective is to take advantage of the resource shortages experienced by the Ukrainian Defense Forces until military assistance from Ukraine's partners arrives.
The shortage of defense resources constrains the Ukrainian Defense Forces' capacity to conduct impactful operations, while at the same time provides the enemy with flexibility in conducting their operations, which in the operational perspective can lead to significant success for the aggressor.
Reports of critical shortages of guided anti-aircraft missiles in coming months have become more frequent, which would further degrade the entire air defense system of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. This situation would not only diminish the capacity to protect vital military, industrial, and administrative sites but also strengthens the enemy's air superiority, especially along the line of contact.
The enemy's escalation of aerial attacks employing precision bombs would significantly reduce the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and could potentially isolate specific sectors within the operational zone.
In response to a significant build-up of enemy forces in Bryansk Oblast, the Ukrainian Defense Forces reinforce defensive positions near Sumy.
The tactical situation for the "Khortytsia" OSG units on the Bakhmut direction is further complicated due to the personnel shortages and constant enemy airstrikes employing precision-guided bombs.
On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy is employing small motorcycle groups, supported by UAVs, artillery, and aviation. The enemy forces have begun using buggies, quad bikes, and motorcycles.
On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy has reintroduced the employment of armored vehicles, including tanks.
Russian forces continue the assaults on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast with groups numbering between 10 to 15 individuals, without armored support. The adversary suffers daily losses ranging from 30 to 40 personnel in this area.
The adversary is executing information operations "Perun" and "Maidan-3" via Russian embassies and official events in unspecified neutral countries. Operation "Perun" aims to destabilize the Ukrainian and Western political environments, blur Russia's responsibility for the invasion of Ukraine, and intentionally misrepresent living conditions in occupied territories of Ukraine in foreign media. The objective of "Maidan-3" operation is to instigate panic and discontent among the Ukrainians and foster discord between the civilian population and Ukraine's military-political leadership.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 59 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kupyansk direction, positional battles persisted in the vicinity of Synkivka.
On the Lyman direction, positional battles took place near Terny, in the area of Serebryansk Forest and Bilohorivka.
On the Bakhmut direction, positional battles continued near Bohdanivka, in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Novyi, along the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. Near Spirne, the 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army is attacking.
On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have reached the O0542 highway Avdiivka-Novobakhmutivka near Semenivka and are trying to advance to the village. Units of the enemy’s 3rd Separate DOF Brigade have been spotted in battles for Berdychi.
Positional battles persisted in the areas of Semenivka, Berdychi, Tonenke, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet has advanced in the area of Novomykhailivka, but "Tavria" OSG units do not retreat from the village, widely employing UAVs and cluster munitions in this area, significantly complicating the enemy's advancement.
Positional battles persisted in the areas of Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
Berdyansk direction: Russian forces continued their advance near Staromayorske but failed to achieve success.
Orikhiv direction: positional battles have been ongoing near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
Black Sea: 1 Cruise Missile Carrier. The total salvo is 4 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 1 Cruise Missile Carrier. The total salvo is 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Northern Fleet conducts combat operations on the Bakhmut direction.
The 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army is active on the Zaporizhzhia direction. The 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Army is operating on the Polohy direction.
Escalation indicators:
Russian forces are actively transferring military equipment and personnel from rear areas in Luhansk Oblast along the T0504 highway in the direction of Bakhmut.
Possible operation situation developments:
The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations could include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain control of the final agglomeration (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk) in Donetsk Oblast; the strategic importance of the "Zapad (West)" operational grouping in the adversary's offensive campaign in 2024 is notably heightened.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces will make efforts to stabilize the front line and ensure an operational pause for 3-4 months to rearm and replenish personnel to a minimum of 150-200 thousand servicemen.
The enemy command will endeavor to cut off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south in the area of Terny and will attempt to eliminate the southern part of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River.
The adversary's command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
The command of the 58th Army is poised to deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG "Tavria" from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 29.03.24
Personnel - almost 440,790 people (+820);
Tanks - 6,922 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles – 13,264 (+27);
Artillery systems – 10,991 (+28);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 1,023 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 735 (+6);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,645 (+50);
Aircraft - 347 (0);
Helicopters – 325 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 8,656 (+56);
Intercepted cruise missiles - 2,022 (+5);
Boats/ships – 27 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 17 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 144 towns and villages and 174 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
Air defense successfully neutralized 84 out of 99 enemy aerial targets launched by Russia during the night of March 29. The combined attack comprised 60 Shahed-136/131 attack UAVs, 3 Kh-47M2 "Kinjal" aeroballistic missiles, 2 "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles, 9 Kh-59 guided aviation missiles, 4 "Iskander-K" cruise missiles, and 21 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles.
As a result of the massive Russian attack on March 29, there is damage to the energy infrastructure in six regions: Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Cherkasy, and Chernivtsi Oblasts, prompting emergency shutdowns in some areas.
On March 29, Russia targeted Odesa with two guided aviation missiles during the day, both of which were successfully intercepted. The attack resulted in five injuries, including a 15-year-old teenager who was on the street at the time of interception; he was subsequently hospitalized in a children's clinical facility.
During the night of March 29, Russian forces shelled two more Ukrainian hydroelectric power stations - the Kaniv and Dnister Hydroelectric Power Stations, posing a threat not only to Ukraine but also to Moldova.
On March 29, a kamikaze drone operated by Russian aggressors targeted a civilian vehicle in the Myrivska community of Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. As a result, a 39-year-old man was killed.
Near the village of Topolyne in Kherson Oblast, a man driving a tractor ran over a mine left by the Russian army and was killed.
As the result of repatriation efforts, the bodies of 121 fallen defenders have been returned to Ukraine.
During the retreat from Avdiivka, 25 Ukrainian soldiers were captured, commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said.
The Dispatch Center of "Ukrenergo" has been forced to implement emergency power outage schedules during the evening peak consumption period in Sumy, Poltava, and Donetsk Oblasts. This decision comes as emergency outages have already been enforced in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. The primary reason behind this action is the insufficient generating capacity within the system to meet consumption demands in specific regions of the country, resulting from overnight mass Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants. Restrictions on power supply persist in Kharkiv Oblast and in Kryvyi Rih.
Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stationed at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) temporarily occupied by Russian forces, reported hearing explosions directly on the plant's premises. These explosions were likely caused by outgoing artillery fire from the plant's site. Additionally, mission representatives heard gunfire several times, and the air alarm system at the site was activated.
In the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, Russian forces have installed over 2000 mobile network towers owned by the Russian Federation and renovated 2300 cultural landmarks like theaters, cinemas, and studios to promote Russian narratives. They exercise complete control over the informational domain, utilizing repeaters and other infrastructure. This initiative is supervised by "Rostech," which manages all software and maintains extensive control of information dissemination.