Russia's war on Ukraine. 29.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade is attempting to advance along the Snagost River and is engaged in battles near Nikolaevo-Daryino. The enemy has advanced north of Guevo and near Sverdlivkovo, attacked in the areas of Viktorovka, Nikolskiy, Novaya Sorochina, Staraya Sorochina, and Kurilovka.
The "Siversk" Operational and Tactical Group (OTG) counterattacked near Nikolskiy.
The contingent of the Armed Forces of North Korea has likely been temporarily withdrawn from the front line after suffering significant losses to restore combat capability.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Vovchansk and Starytsia. The enemy assaults the Aggregate Plant daily with groups of 3 to 10 servicemen.
On the Kupyansk direction, the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Army is fighting for Dvorichna. Capturing this town would allow the enemy to advance toward Kutkivka and Zakhidne and attempt either to encircle Kupyansk from the west or move northwest toward Velykyi Burluk to link up with the Russian "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping operating near Vovchansk.
The enemy attacked near Dvorichna, Kutkivka, Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Hlushkivka, Lozova, Bohuslavka, Zelenyi Hai, Nova Kruhlyakivka, under Kopanky, near Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, and Hrekivka. Fighting continues for Tverdokhlibove. The enemy conducts daily assaults with groups of up to six soldiers near the Oskil River and Borova, occasionally attacking on motorcycles but using tanks only for indirect fire from covered positions.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Terny, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, Zelena Dolyna, Zarichne, and the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces were unsuccessful in their attacks near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Novoselivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance in the center of Chasiv Yar and west of Kalynivka. They unsuccessfully attacked with armored support near Bila Hora, Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Predtechyne.
On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced along Dargomyzhsky Street in the northern part of Toretsk.
Russian forces control New York and Yurivka and attempted to advance in the western part of Toretsk. Intense fighting continues on the outskirts of the city. The enemy attacked near Shcherbynivka, Krymske, Dachne, and Dyliivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, forward units of the 74th and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army managed to expand their wedge between Novovasylivka and Pishchane, cutting the Pokrovsk – Mezhova road, capturing Kotlyne, and initiating battles for Udachne. Attempts to capture Zvirove have so far been unsuccessful.
Forward units of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army, supported by the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army, engaged in battles for Uspenivka after capturing Novovasylivka. They attempted to secure the southern flank of the wedge by advancing toward Novooleksandrivka but have been unable to overcome the resistance of Ukrainian forces defending in the areas of Uspenivka, "Tsarskyi Stavok," and Udachne.
Forward units of the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army and the 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Army are unsuccessfully attempting to break through in the directions of Zelene – Chunyshyne and Dachenske – Chunyshyne. The 137th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army and the 589th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Army unsuccessfully attack in the direction of Mykolaivka – the southern outskirts of Myrnohrad.
A supporting strike is carried out by the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army, redeployed to the Pokrovsk area from the Novopavlivka direction and reinforced by several motorized rifle regiments of the Territorial Troops of the 41st Army. Their general direction of advance is Vozdvyzhenka – Malynivka, northeast of Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. The enemy has advanced several hundred meters toward the road junction on the Pokrovsk – Bakhmut road but has been unable to capture Baranivka or Yelyzavetivka or cut the road itself.
These actions should be seen as an attempt to pin down reserves of the "Khortytsia" Operational and Strategic Group (OSG) in this direction.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces captured Slovyanka and advanced west of the village and south of Dachne. They attempted to push into the center of Andriivka and continued attacking in small groups of 2–3 soldiers. The enemy uses vehicles to deploy infantry near Ukrainian positions but not for direct assaults. Russian forces try to exploit their numerical advantage to exhaust Ukrainian units in this area.
The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army is expanding its salient northeast of Andriivka and attempting to secure positions along the T0515 road from Andriivka to Pokrovsk near Slovyanka.
The enemy continued assault actions near Shevchenkove, Dachne, Ulakly, Konstyantynopil, Rozlyv, Oleksiivka, Bahatyr, Yantarne, and Zelenivka.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Rozdolne, clearing the area around Velyka Novosilka and regrouping near the village. They continued assault actions near Velyka Novosilka, Rozdolne, and Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces conducted localized attacks near Novodanylivka, captured Stepove, and advanced northeast of Kopani and south of Mali Shcherbaky.
General conclusion:
The command of the Russian "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping continues its plan to capture Pokrovsk. The primary objective of Russian forces in this direction is to bypass the city from the southwest and west. The average daily advance rate of the enemy on the Pokrovsk direction is up to 1–1.2 km per day, rarely exceeding this figure. The situation in this direction is characterized by slow dynamics.
At the same time, the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping conducts offensive operations in the Toretsk area (51st Army), actively engaging on the Novopavlivka direction (90th Tank Division of the 41st Army and part of the 51st Army), and advancing towards the area of Yelyzavetivka – Baranivka – Vodyane Druhe – Malynivka, northeast of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
South and southwest of Pokrovsk, the enemy is actively pursuing two main objectives: pushing as far north as possible towards Novotroitske – Hryshyne and cutting off both major routes from Pokrovsk to the west and southwest, as well as advancing as far west as possible along both banks of the Solona River.
The development of the situation on the Pokrovsk direction will depend on the duration of Ukrainian Defense Forces' hold on Udachne and Zvirove, their ability to retain control of the Pokrovsk – Pavlohrad road, their capacity to push the enemy south of the Pokrovsk – Mezhova road, the success of the Russian forces' flanking maneuver around Pokrovsk from the southwest, and the effectiveness of Russian forces on secondary directions, particularly in the Vozdvyzhenka area.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 174 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy unsuccessfully stormed Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions seven times in the areas of Vovchansk and Starytsia.
On the Kupyansk direction, the aggressor conducted offensive actions near Kutkivka, Kindrashivka, Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, and Bohuslavka. Two engagements are still ongoing. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 enemy attacks.
On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions nine times near Novoyehorivka, Bohuslavka, Novolyubivka, Makiivka, and in the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian defenders' positions 17 times in the areas of Bilohorivka, Novosilka, and Verkhnokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy stormed Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions 11 times near Predtechyne, Bila Hora, and Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, 17 enemy attacks were repelled in the areas of Krymske, Dyliivka, Dachne, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka. One more engagement is still ongoing. Additionally, the enemy carried out an airstrike using four guided bombs on Katerynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy attacked 75 times in the areas of Vodyane Druhe, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Zelene, Vidrodzhennya, Shevchenko, Pokrovsk, Serhiivka, Udachne, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Novovasylivka, Novooleksandrivka, Oleksiivka, Dachne, Bohdanivka, Kurakhove, and Ulakly. At the same time, the enemy carried out airstrikes with guided bombs on Andriivka and Udachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy made seven attempts to break through defenses near the settlements of Konstyantynopil and Rozlyv. Additionally, the enemy conducted airstrikes on Komar and Novyi Komar.
On the Huliaypole direction, the invaders attacked Novosilka five times.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian occupiers carried out an airstrike near Kalynivske.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the occupation forces launched an assault but failed and withdrew.
In Kursk Oblast, the "Siversk" OTG repelled 10 enemy attacks. The enemy conducted 15 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The Russian military command is finalizing the formation of the 7th Separate Reconnaissance and Strike Regiment of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems within the Central Military District. The regiment's personnel strength is set at 1,342 servicemen and consists of a headquarters, a strike drone battalion, three reconnaissance and strike drone battalions, and logistical, communications, medical, and repair units. It includes 41 strike drones and 61 reconnaissance and strike drones. The regiment is 94% staffed and has undergone training at the 473rd Training Center of the Central Military District. It operates in the territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Similar regiments are planned to be formed in every military district.
The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army operates near Pogrebki.
The 136th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army is engaged in operations on the Kupyansk direction. Reports indicate that the 16th Separate SOF Brigade operates near Petropavlivka. The 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army is active near Lozova.
The 331st Airborne Regiment, the 215th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, the 38th Separate Engineer Battalion of the 98th Airborne Division, and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps operates near and within Chasiv Yar.
The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army is conducting operations near Velyka Novosilka.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations will attempt to leverage tactical advantages within and near Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead southwest of Toretsk. For this purpose, the intensity of combat operations southwest of Toretsk will be increased.
The further enemy actions on the Novopavlivka direction will aim to prevent the consolidation of "Khortytsia" OSG units in the Rozlyv–Konstyantynopil–Andriivka–Ulakly area. The Russian military command is likely to simultaneously intensify pressure with forces from the 90th Tank Division and increase efforts in the operational zone of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. Troops from the 8th Combined Arms Army (20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions) of the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping are expected to participate in these actions, with some units likely being redeployed after the withdrawal of the "Khortytsia" OSG from the remaining positions at the Kurakhove bridgehead.
If the Russian military command plans to prioritize the capture of the "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast in the spring and summer of 2025, it will be forced to intensify operational activity on the Toretsk direction in the near future. At the same time, capturing Pokrovsk will remain the primary operational objective of the Russian military command in Donetsk Oblast. Consequently, the redeployment of Eastern Military District troops to the Toretsk or Kramatorsk directions would signify a shift in the operational priorities of the occupying forces.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 29.01.25
Personnel - almost 834,670 (+1,670);
Tanks 9,886 (+10);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,597 (+24);
Artillery systems – 22,395 (+29);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,264 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,050 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 35,366 (+97);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 23,456 (+57);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,054 (+1)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Since the evening of January 28, Russian forces launched 57 Shahed-type strike UAVs and various types of decoy drones across Ukraine. Ukrainian forces destroyed 29 drones, while 14 were lost in different locations. The enemy attack affected Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Sumy Oblasts.
On the night of Wednesday, January 29, Kyiv was attacked by drones loaded with shrapnel. One drone fell onto a metro track when no trains were running.
During the night of January 29, Russian occupiers attacked port infrastructure in the Izmail district of Odesa Oblast with strike drones, causing damage to buildings.
On the morning of January 29, Russian forces attacked Antonivka in Kherson Oblast with a drone, resulting in one fatality.
On January 29, at around 11:45 AM, a Russian drone struck near an ambulance in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, injuring three workers from the Kharkiv emergency medical brigade.
As a result of a Russian missile strike on the evening of January 28, two women were killed at a private enterprise in Mykolaiv. The strike hit a food industry facility, partially destroying a workshop building and damaging the administrative offices.
In towns and villages of Donetsk Oblast, where the mandatory evacuation of children is underway, 65 families with 90 children still remain. In Pokrovsk, approximately 7,000 people remain, with no children among them. In total, about 304,000 civilians remain in Donetsk Oblast.
A Russian serviceman raped a 21-year-old woman from a village in Izium District, Kharkiv Oblast, during the occupation. He then kidnapped her, threatening her family, and held her in sexual slavery for a year and a half in Belgorod, Russia, according to Serhii Bolvinov, head of the investigative department of the National Police in Kharkiv Oblast. She was able to escape due to chance.
The Russian government claims to have received over 4.8 billion rubles ($48.5 million) from the sale of "nationalized" Ukrainian property in occupied Crimea, according to Larisa Kulynych, Russian Minister of Property and Land Relations of Crimea. Among the sold properties was President Volodymyr Zelensky’s apartment in Yalta. Earlier, Denys Chystikov, Deputy Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in Crimea, stated that in 2024 alone, Russian authorities "nationalized" the property of 560 individuals and legal entities, along with 135 buildings in Sevastopol.