Russia's war on Ukraine. 28.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, 5 enemy assaults took place near Vovchansk and Tykhe.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, 17 enemy attacks were recorded. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled offensive actions near Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Zelenyi Hai, and Kruhlyakivka. The enemy attacked four times on the Lyman direction, focusing its main offensive efforts near Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, and Torske. On the Kramatorsk directions, the occupiers attacked once near Bila Hora. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 6 attacks near Toretsk, actively using bomber aviation.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 37 enemy offensives near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zhovte, and Chumatske. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 39 attacks. The enemy concentrated its main efforts near Sontsivka, Berestky, Kurakhove, Dalnie, Yelyzavetivka, Antonivka, and Hanivka. With air support, the enemy conducted 18 assaults near Trudove, Konstyantynopolske, Rozlyv, Rozdolne, Sukhi Yaly, and Novodaryivka.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders attacked 6 times but faced fierce resistance and suffered losses.

General conclusion:

• The situation for Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Kurakhove and Vremivka directions continues to deteriorate.

• On the Kursk direction, the enemy is fortifying positions in Daryino, but the 155th Separate Marine Brigade (Pacific Fleet) has been rendered combat-ineffective and pulled back to the rear. The enemy is working to retake Novoivanovka and Pogrebki. Russian forces in Kursk Oblast have swelled to approximately 56,000 personnel, with half of all reinforcements from October and November deployed here. The enemy is constructing a continuous front line to block maneuver operations by the "Siversk" OTG, particularly those involving armored vehicles. This move indicates a calculated effort by the Counter Terrorist Operation Command to consolidate their front and shift combat to a format familiar to them.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian infantry has crossed the Oskil River and landed on the western bank between Dvorichna and Novomlynsk. The captured section of the riverbank is not connected to Dvorichna by roads and is separated by the bend of the Verkhnya Dvorichna River, but there is a bridge 3 km to the north near Figolivka, which the enemy is attempting to reach. The enemy is slowly expanding its foothold in the Kolisnykivka area.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy’s capture of the refractory materials plant in Chasiv Yar would mark the beginning of the countdown for the city’s defense.

• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy has intensified its attacks on Leonidivka on both banks of the Kryvyi Torets River. Over the past 7–10 days, Ukrainian Defense Forces on this direction have faced serious issues with ammunition supplies, reinforcements, and evacuation of the wounded due to high enemy UAV and aviation activity, which strikes logistics up to 17 km into the rear, disrupting Ukrainian supply lines.

• On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy is attempting to eliminate the Ukrainian foothold and align the front line along the Dalnie–Uspenivka–Trudove line.

• The enemy is employing the same tactics near Kurakhove as in battles for Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and Selydove: powerful assault tactical groups (typically a division) flank resistance nodes while 1–2 tactical groups engage from the front (each consisting of 2–3 brigades or 3–4 regiments of mobilized reserves). If the flanking advance slows, the enemy broadens its encirclement front and continues to attack. It is likely this tactic will be used in Toretsk and Pokrovsk this winter.

• The "Tavriya" OSG continues planned operations, defending and withdrawing in some directions while conducting fierce rearguard actions to inflict significant losses on the enemy, undermining their ability to sustain offensive operations. The Russian military command has been forced to commit a substantial portion of its strategic reserves accumulated in 2024 to capture territories in the Kurakhove, Vremivka, and Kursk directions.

• The "Tavriya" OSG’s defensive organization still suffers from a key flaw: well-fortified towns and villages have weak flanks, which the enemy exploits.

• On the Vremivka direction, the situation around Velyka Novosilka is becoming more complicated for the "Tavriya" OSG. While the southern flank was covered by defenses near Makarivka, the eastern approach was only guarded by sparse minefields, which the enemy breached, reaching the village outskirts. Velyka Novosilka could be lost within the next 5–7 days. If this happens, the forces defending Makarivka, Blahodatne, and areas north of Rivne will face a critical situation. A withdrawal of the "Tavriya" OSG units from these positions cannot be ruled out if the situation in Velyka Novosilka cannot be stabilized with reserve reinforcements.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 157 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk direction, the 104th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division advanced east of Nizhniy Klin. Russian forces also advanced near Daryino, but units of the “Siversk” OTG counterattack in this area. The 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division is attempting to take control of the area near Daryino and Nizhniy Klin.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued assaults near Vovchansk and Tykhe but were unsuccessful. They attempted to advance across the international border north of Kharkiv near Hraniv, Kozacha Lopan, and Prudyanka, moving toward Slatyne.

• Ukrainian units from the "Kharkiv" OTG counterattacked near Lyptsi and Hlyboke, regaining previously lost positions near Lyptsi and consolidating their hold.

• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces achieved minor advances near Dvorichna, where fighting continues on the approaches to the village. The enemy persists in crossing the Oskil River near Novomlynsk, launching assaults in areas around Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Synkivka, Zahryzove, Sienkove, Zelenyi Hai, Andriivka, Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Druzhkivka, Makiivka, and Cherneshchyna. The operational objective of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping is to secure the Oskil River crossings.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack in recently occupied positions near Kopanky.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces launched an unsuccessful assault east of Torske. The enemy units here are unfamiliar with the terrain, arriving directly from training centers. The enemy also advanced near Hryhorivka and the Serebriansk Forest.

• On the Siversk direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked near Hryhorivka, continuing assaults with small groups supported by aviation and artillery. High losses and lack of tactical advantages lead to low discipline among Russian soldiers.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces gained ground in the wooded area northwest of Kurdyumivka. They advanced near Chasiv Yar, south of the city, in the areas of Bila Hora, Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Dyliivka. The enemy is fortifying Bakhmut, laying minefields on its approaches. The 98th Airborne Division and forces of the 3rd Army Corps use Bakhmut as a logistics hub, establishing ammunition, fuel, and equipment depots there.

• On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained positions in central Toretsk. Russian forces launched attacks near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, the "Tavriya" OSG units are failing to halt the advance of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army west of Selydove.

• Russian forces have made minor progress west of Krutyi Yar and western Petrivka, capturing Zhovte and advancing along the railway line north of the village. They are also advancing toward Pushkyne, Ukrainka, and from Lysivka toward Dachenske, as well as in areas between Zhovte and Petrivka, west of Novooleksiivka. Fighting continues near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krasnyi Yar, Dachenske, Zhovte, Chumatske, Pustynka, and Novyi Trud.

• Russian attacks remain intense, with the enemy maintaining manpower superiority.

• "Tavriya" OSG units counterattack near Zhovte.

• On the Kurakhove direction, to the north of Kurakhove, the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping are advancing actively west of Selydove, attempting to reach the Novotroitske–Ukrainka line. This threatens not only the defense of the southern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir but also an encirclement of Pokrovsk from the south. On the southern flank, the 36th, 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, the 5th Separate Tank Brigade, the 40th, and the 336th Separate Marines Brigades are attempting to bypass the right flank of the "Tavriya" OSG south of Kurakhove near Uspenivka and Velyka Novosilka. Constraining actions are conducted by the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army, elements of the 2nd Army of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping the 8th Army "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping and parts of the 68th Army Corps, aiming to wedge into and disrupt Ukrainian formations.

• With strong defenses along the Konstyantynopolske (lower)–Uspenivka–Hanivka–Trudove line along the Sukhi Yaly River "Tavriya" OSG managed to slow down the advance of the far right flank of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping, and in the area of Sontsivka and Zorya, they were able to delay the enemy's rapid capture of Kurakhove.

• On the Vremivka direction, the 29th and 36th Armies of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping continue their advance westward in the Velyka Novosilka and Rozdolne areas.

• Russian forces captured Rozdolne, territory near Yelyzavetivka, advanced north of Yasna Polyana, south of Romanivka, east of Veselyi Hai, and within the southeastern part of Velyka Novosilka. They are clearing Illinka and Romanivka, entering the eastern part of Velyka Novosilka, and attacking near Romanivka, Yelyzavetivka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Hannivka, Veselyi Hai, Sukhi Yaly, Trudove, Uspenivka, Rozlyv, Konstyantynopolske, Velyka Novosilka, Rozdolne, Rivnopil, and Novodaryivka.

• On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces conducted training near the Antonivskyi Bridge, attacked in the areas of Kozatskyi and Kruhlik islands, and reconnoitered Ukrainian positions. They aim to establish a bridgehead on the western bank of the Dnipro River to tie down "Odesa" OSG in this sector and strike Kherson and towns and villages along the right bank.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 14 ships, including 4 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army operates in Ivanivske.

Possible operation situation developments:

• On the Kupyansk direction, near Borova, the enemy aims to achieve the following tactical objectives: break through the "Khortytsia" OSG defense near Kruhlyakivka and advance southward toward Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka; attack Lozova and move toward Nova Kruhlyakivka; breach the "Khortytsia" OSG defense at Pershotravneve toward Kopanky and Novoserhiyivka, forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from positions near Novoyehorivka under the threat of encirclement.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, if the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka. South of Chasiv Yar, the enemy attacks toward Zemlyanka and Pivdenne, advancing westward and southward of Klishchiivka. Fighting continues for Andriivka; the situation on this direction is challenging. If it does not improve, Chasiv Yar could be lost by mid-January, or in the worst-case scenario, by the end of December.

• Before the end of November “Tavriya” OSG will withdraw from its positions along the Yelyzavetivka–Konstyantynopil line, Kurakhove, and the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir to avoid encirclement.

• On the Vremivka direction, the main forces of the 5th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" Grouping (127th Motorized Rifle Division, 57th and 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades) are expected to be deployed into the operation.

• The enemy will continue advancing westward along the H15 highway toward Andriivka while simultaneously attacking the Defense Forces' bridgehead northeast of Vuhledar along the Uspenivka–Hannivka–Romanivka line, aiming to force "Tavriya" OSG units to withdraw westward under the threat of encirclement. Such a maneuver could allow Russian forces to seize advantageous tactical positions in this area and align the frontline from Sontsivka to Kostiantynopil, positioning Russian troops approximately 23 km east of the Donetsk–Dnipropetrovsk oblast border.

• By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the "belt of fortresses" Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka.

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.11.24

Personnel - almost 736,630 (+1,220);

Tanks 9,450 (+1);

Armored combat vehicles – 19,306 (+2);

Artillery systems – 20,852 (+22);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,255 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,005 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 30,186 (+60);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 19,661 (+45);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,765 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of November 28, Russia launched a massive combined missile and drone attack targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted 76 cruise missiles, 3 guided aviation missiles, and 35 UAVs out of a total of 188 enemy targets.

• As a result of Russia's massive attack on Thursday, 12 hits were recorded, mainly on facilities in the fuel and energy sector. Recently, during airstrikes, the enemy has been using large numbers of missiles and drones. Their mass deployment in certain directions often exceeds the capacity of defense systems. Additionally, the enemy employs advanced aerial attack systems and continuously upgrades them, significantly complicating the operation of Soviet-made anti-aircraft missile systems used by Ukraine's Air Force.

• In Kyiv Oblast, a Russian attack damaged an infrastructure facility, a private house, a hangar, and vehicles, injuring two people.

• In Odesa Oblast, a missile strike injured three people, including a 16-year-old boy. Private houses and a gas pipeline were also damaged, and fires broke out. Explosions were also reported in Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine, though no hits were confirmed.

• On the morning of November 28, explosions were reported in Lutsk. Hits were recorded in Volyn Oblast, leading to emergency power outages.

• In the western Ukrainian cities of Ivano-Frankivsk and Khmelnytskyi, explosions occurred during a missile attack. In the Ivano-Frankivsk region, private homes sustained damage. No casualties were reported.

• In Vinnytsia Oblast, a woman was injured by a Russian missile attack. Residential buildings were damaged, a utility building was destroyed, and a private vehicle caught fire.

• On Friday, Russian forces attacked Nikopol District over 20 times. A man was injured and hospitalized in moderate condition.

• According to preliminary data from the Prosecutor General’s Office, on November 24, 2024, near Novodarivka in the Polohy District of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where active combat is ongoing, Russian armed forces executed five of six Ukrainian defenders taken prisoner.

• Emergency power outages implemented due to Russia’s massive attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure on the morning of November 28 were canceled by noon. All consumers returned to scheduled rolling blackouts. Three outage groups are being implemented simultaneously.