Russia's war on Ukraine. 28.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, 4 enemy assaults took place near Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 20 Russian. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults toward Kindrashivka, Synkivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zahryzove, Pershotravneve, and Vyshneve. On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 16 attacks, focusing their main offensive efforts in the areas of Cherneshchyna, Novomykhailivka, Makiivka, Terny, Zarichne, Serebrianka, and Hryhorivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 9 times in the Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Predtechyne areas. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy conducted 6 attacks near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka, actively using bomber aircraft.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 27 offensive actions toward Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Vyshneve, and Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 37 attacks. The enemy concentrated their main efforts in the areas of Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Kurakhivka, Maksymilianivka, Antonivka, Kurakhove, and Katerynivka. Supported by aviation, the enemy conducted 8 assaults on the Vremivka direction near Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka. On the Orikhiv and Huliaypole directions, the enemy heavily used assault and bomber aircraft.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders launched 3 attacks, met with strong resistance, and suffered losses.
General conclusion:
The Russian military-political leadership has set March 1, 2025, as the new date for the full capture of Donetsk Oblast.
The “Tavriya” OSG headquarters once again failed to secure the flanks of the tactical group defending Selydove, resulting in the loss of the town.
The loss of the village of Hirnyk was due to coordination issues between the headquarters of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 210th Territorial Defense Battalion, which was defending the village. Miscalculations led to the battalion being surrounded, forcing its withdrawal by breaking through the encirclement. Losses for the 210th Battalion are estimated at 11 personnel killed and 70 wounded.
The composition and structure of the enemy's operational reserves on the Kharkiv direction suggest that no major actions should be expected in the near term. As the 71st Motorized Rifle Division and the 68th Motorized Rifle Division continue to form, their deployment should be expected in the areas of Vovchansk and Lyptsi.
The command of the enemy’s "Belgorod" Operational-Tactical Grouping is focused on at least three main tactical objectives: securing control of the northern part of Vovchansk, expanding its control by capturing the village of Tyke east of the city, and regaining control of Hlyboke, with the goal of advancing as close as possible to Lyptsi. Through these actions, they aim to tie down the maximum number of Ukrainian forces on the Vovchansk direction to prevent reinforcements from being sent to the Kursk and Kupiansk direction.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 144 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, units from the 41st and 47th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, the 33rd Separate Assault Battalion, and the 501st Separate Marines Battalion failed to capture Novoivanovka. However, they successfully repelled 4 intense enemy assaults on Tolstyi Lug and Pokrovskoe.
In the “Siversk” OTG operational area, Ukrainian forces advanced southwest of Olgovka and east of Kolmakov, launching attacks near Zelionyi Put, Novoivanovka, Daryino, Nizhniy Klin, Pogrebki, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Plekhovo, and Novyi Put.
Russian forces managed a slight advance southeast of Martynovka.
On the Kharkiv direction, the command of enemy "Sever (Nort)" Operational Grouping with the forces of “Belgorod” Operational-Tactical Grouping are attempting to push along both banks of the Siverskyi Donets River at least to a tactical depth, extend their penetration towards Lyptsi, and gain full control over the northern part of Vovchansk. The goal is to bypass the city from the east via Tyke, creating an opportunity to advance toward Velykyi Burluk.
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy could not break through the second position of the 77th Separate Air Assault Brigade and instead redirected their attacks on the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade, launching assaults from the south (Kruhlyakivka) and east (Tabaiivka toward Hlushkivka).
Russian troops made progress within Pershotravneve and continued their offensive around Synkivka, Kindrashivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Vyshneve, Lozova, Berestove, and Petropavlivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy pushed the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade out of Nevske and Novosadove. However, “Khortytsia” OSG launched a counterattack with the 4th Separate Tank Brigade, partially restoring positions. Russian forces advanced to the northern outskirts of Terny and attacked near Cherneshchyna, Terny, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Makiivka, Hryhorivka, Torske, Zarichne, and Serebrianka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled an assault northeast of Torske.
On the Siversk direction, Russian troops attempted ground assaults near Bilohorivka, which were unsuccessful.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces launched an unsuccessful assault near Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive but failed to make headway. Fighting persisted around Toretsk, New York, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces broke through south of Selydove, entered Vyshneve, advanced along the E50 highway to the west, and placed the Selydove-Pokrovsk highway under fire control.
Due to a lack of supplies, the 15th Separate Operational Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard was forced to begin withdrawing from Selydove.
Russian troops also attacked near Promin, Myrolyubivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Krasnyi Yar, Krutyi Yar, Mykolaivka, and Lysivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions east of Kurakhove without significant gains. Clashes continued west of Oleksandropil, near Dalnie, Hostre, Maksymilianivka, Kurakhivka, and Kurakhove.
Units of the 110th and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, along with the 71st Separate SOF Battalion of the 51st Army Corps, consolidate positions in Oleksandropil, Hirnyk, and the Korotchenko Mine, marking the end of the battle for Selydove.
On the Vremivka direction, the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army captured Bohoyavlenka and now controls most of the village. Russian forces advanced in the fields southwest of Novoukrainka, penetrated southern Novoukrainka, and seized Levadne.
Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy assault near Zolota Nyva.
Fighting persisted around Katerynivka, Antonivka, Kostyantynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Novoukrainka, and Zolota Nyva.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued their attacks in the Novodanylivka area.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division and the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade operate near Liubimovka close to Cherkasskya Konopelka.
The 1453rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 51st Combined Arms Army conducts combat actions in Selydove.
The 6th Combined Arms Army is active on the Kharkiv direction along the main offensive direction, with units from the 69th Motorized Rifle Division and elements of the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, most of whose units are engaged in combat on the Kupyansk direction, moving generally in the Synkivka–Petropavlivka and Vilshana–Petropavlivka directions. Individual units of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division from the 44th Army Corps and the 71st Motorized Rifle Division from the 14th Army Corps are also involved in combat on this direction.
The enemy’s operational grouping on the Kharkiv direction comprises up to three brigades, 12 regiments, 25–30 battalions/detachments, and totals up to 46,000 personnel, 340 tanks, 1,015 armored fighting vehicles, 830 artillery guns and mortars, and 110 multiple rocket launchers. The operational reserve of the grouping is estimated at 3,500 personnel.
Possible operation situation developments:
To cross the Vovcha River and create conditions for further advancement toward Bilyi Kolodyaz and Rubizhne, the enemy around Vovchansk may attempt to bypass the city, either by advancing from the east toward Vovchanski Khutory through Tykhe or by resuming attacks toward Buhruvatka–Starytsia or along one of the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River. In another direction, the enemy may shift their offensive focus and attempt to reach the Traviyanske Reservoir dam via the summer houses from Hlyboke or concentrate their main efforts along the Zelene–Neskuchne line, moving generally toward Vesele along the Murom River.
The command of the enemy's 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade on the Kupyansk direction in the near future will attempt to advance eastward and cut off all roads leading to Synkivka from the south, reach the Oskil River across from the village of Holubivka on the right bank, in order to force the "Khortytsia" OSG forward units defending in the Synkivka area to retreat towards Petropavlivka.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.
If the enemy achieves success on the Lyman and Kupyansk directions (for example, by breaking through to the Oskil River near Borova) and establishes a northern flank of the Siversk salient beyond the river, the importance of the operational area of the 3rd Army, particularly its left flank south of Siversk, will sharply increase in relation to both Siversk and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw not only from the city of Toretsk but also from the adjacent northern areas, retreating towards Kostyantynivka.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
The enemy has reached a line approximately 7.5-8 km from the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, making it entirely possible that the Russian military command may attempt to bypass Kostyantynivka and penetrate the defenses on its outskirts through multiple frontal assaults along the shortest route. All significant changes and regroupings of enemy forces from the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping should be continuously monitored.
The most likely directions of enemy action could be the junction of the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts and the direction toward Dvorichna along the right bank of the Oskil River. Currently, the enemy does not have sufficient forces and resources to carry out such an operation.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 28.10.24
Personnel - almost 690,720 (+1,680);
Tanks 9,120 (+7);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,395 (+40);
Artillery systems – 19,872 (+51);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,240 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 984 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 27,660 (+100);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 17,867 (+68);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2625 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of October 28, Russia launched a drone attack on Ukraine involving 100 drones. Ukrainian air defense intercepted and destroyed 66 drones, while 24 were lost to radar, and 4 returned to Russia and Belarus. Several drones hit civilian infrastructure.
October 28 marked the longest air raid alert in the Khmelnytskyi Oblast since the war began, lasting 11 hours. During this period, air defenses shot down 10 enemy drones. A residential building had windows damaged, as well as a garage and a vehicle. No injuries or deaths were reported. One drone reportedly flew dangerously close to a reactor at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant.
On the evening of October 27 and into the night of October 28, Russian forces struck Shevchenkivskyi, Saltivskyi, and Holodnohirskyi districts of Kharkiv with guided bombs. They also used the Tornado-S multiple rocket launcher system to target Chuhuiv in Kharkiv Oblast. The attacks injured 21 people, including five children.
On October 28, Russia used "Shahed" drones to attack critical energy infrastructure in the Konotop district of Sumy Oblast. Emergency services arrived to manage the situation. Ukrainian Ground Forces and Air Force air defense units shot down six enemy "Shahed" drones.
On October 28, 2024, Russian forces attacked Nikopol with drones, injuring two girls, aged 12 and 13, with shrapnel. Private homes were damaged in the assault.
On October 27, at around 9:20 p.m., the occupiers heavily shelled the Central District of Kherson, killing two people and wounding four others, including a 13-year-old boy. Four apartment buildings and several private houses sustained damage.
Over the past day, the occupiers launched 378 strikes on 10 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Two men and one woman were injured in the attacks, and residential buildings and infrastructure were damaged.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has submitted a proposal to the Verkhovna Rada to extend martial law and mobilization in Ukraine for 90 more days, until February 7, 2025.
President Zelensky introduced a motion in the Verkhovna Rada to approve the dismissal of Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin. After the National Security and Defense Council meeting on October 22, Kostin announced his resignation. This follows a series of revelations about prosecutors improperly obtaining benefits and claiming disability status.
According to a recent survey by the Rating Sociological Group conducted from September 24 to 29, 2024, almost 20% of respondents believe that Ukraine is fully prepared to join the EU. However, 57% feel the country requires further reforms before joining, and 22% think that Ukraine is not ready for EU membership at all. The proportion supporting further reforms has risen by 14 percentage points over the past year, particularly among residents of Kyiv and western Ukraine.
A study by the Laboratory of Legislative Initiatives in May 2024 indicated that the population in 16 liberated communities of Kherson Oblast had decreased to 154,133 residents—down by nearly 296,000 (65%) compared to pre-2022 figures. Notably, on average 15% of the residents in these communities are elderly. In some communities the share of the elderly people reaches 30%.