Russia's war on Ukraine. 25.03.2024
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Khortytsia" on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack in the vicinity of Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 8 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Yampolivka, Vesele, where the enemy, with the aviation support, tried to breach Ukrainian defenses. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 Russian attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 enemy attacks in the area of Berdychi and Pervomaiske. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Urozhaine, where the adversary, with aviation support, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops' defenses 25 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy with air support attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 3 times in the areas of Staromayorske and Robotyne.
In the operational zone of the "Odesa" OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and made an unsuccessful assault on their positions.
General conclusion:
Russian troops are approaching the outskirts of Chasiv Yar; however, they are not anticipated to pose an immediate threat to the town through encirclement or occupation in the coming months.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces have prepared Chasiv Yar for a circular defense, forcing the enemy to break through their lines, thus impeding its advance.
The tactical gains made by the enemy to the east of Chasiv Yar have not set conditions for encirclement or bypassing the town. To attempt such maneuvers, the enemy would first need to concentrate their efforts southeast and northwest of Chasiv Yar.
The enemy has refrained from crossing the Durna River and its associated lakes on the Avdiivka front towards the new defensive line held by the “Tavriya” OSG. However, they persist in advancing from Tonenke towards the Durna River and Umanske village farther to the west. This situation enables the Ukrainian Defense Forces to maintain pressure on the enemy, thereby gaining time to enhance the new defense line.
Russian forces have escalated the deployment of FPV drones by 40% along the front line in the Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts.
Due to the lack of certain capabilities at other naval bases, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is constrained to utilize the infrastructure of the Sevastopol naval base, particularly for loading "Kalibr" missiles onto ships and submarines.
The Defense Forces' attacks on the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, regardless of the degree of damage, will continue to deter Russian forces from relocating ships to Sevastopol and the western part of the Black Sea, thereby complicating the enemy's efforts to bolster their combat capabilities.
Capturing Chasiv Yar would yield several operational advantages for Russian forces:
Securing the southwest flank of the adversary in the Bakhmut-Soledar area.
Advancing north and south of the town to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces farther away from Russian logistical routes near Bakhmut.
Displacing Ukrainian troops from the range of artillery fire along the E40 highway east of Bakhmut, necessitating Defense Forces to establish firing positions closer to the frontline to disrupt enemy logistics on the T0513 Soledar-Bakhmut-Horlivka route.
Creating pathways for advancement toward Kostiantynivka, the southern edge of the major urban agglomeration in Donetsk Oblast, identified as a primary operational target by the Russian military command. The establishment of routes through Chasiv Yar offers direct access to this agglomeration, unlike routes from the south via the H20 highway from Avdiivka or from the southwest from the Toretsk area.
The Russian military command is potentially contemplating a replication of the extensive maneuver executed to capture the Ukrainian Sloviansk-Kramatorsk defensive area in 2025 or beyond. Progressing to the west of Chasiv Yar would create additional favorable conditions for this offensive operation.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 60 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kupyansk direction, the raid of Russian volunteer formations into the territory of the Russian Federation has concluded, and the units have returned to Ukraine. The adversary was forced to redeploy some of its forces and assets from this direction to Belgorod Oblast. Positional battles were fought in the vicinity of Synkivka.
On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted a successful counterattack in the area of Terny, improving their tactical position. Positional battles took place near Terny, Yampolivka, Serebryansk Forest, and Bilohorivka.
On the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues to carry out airstrikes with glide (UMPK) bombs along the Siversk-Bilohorivka road. Pressure on the positions of the Ukraine’s 81st Separate Airborne Brigade in Bilohorivka has decreased. The enemy’s 98th Airborne Division and the 11th Air Assault Brigade have lost their offensive potential, although they attempt to break through to the center of Ivanivske. Active combat operations are being conducted by the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 7th "Volunteer Veterans Brigade."
Russian forces have advanced south of Bohdanivka and north of Klishchiivka, moving towards Chasiv Yar from the direction of Ivanivske.
The “Khortytsia” OSG forces repelled Russian attacks near Rozdolivka, Vesele, Spirne, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
On the Avdiivka direction, the enemy continues to assault Berdychi, despite the losses, attacking from Orlivka in a northward direction, trying to reach the southern flank of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Semenivka. Russian forces have advanced west of Tonenke, but “Tavriya” OSG units mantain positions in the area of Orlivka, including its western outskirts. The enemy is advancing towards Semenivka, Umanske, near Nevelske, and continuously attacks Pervomaiske. Enemy aircraft are bombing Umanske and Semenivka with glide bombs.
Positional battles have been ongoing near Berdychi and Yasnobrodivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy continues to advance towards Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka, but has not made any progress.
Positional combat operations have been ongoing in the areas of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, and Kostiantynivka.
Berdyansk direction: Russian forces have advanced west and southwest of Staromayorske. The “Tavriya” OSG repelled an enemy attack near Urozhaine.
Orikhiv direction: units of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army, replenished with hastily mobilized personnel from territorial troops units, failed to hold their positions in Robotyne and retreated from the village. The 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division displaced units of the Separate Presidential Brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Forces by 200-300 meters, but ultimately lost combat effectiveness and halted further advance.
Positional combat operations persisted near Robotyne and Verbove.
On the Kherson direction, Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack near Krynky.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consisted of:
Mediterranean Sea: 1 Cruise Missile Carrier. The total salvo is 8 “Kalibr” cruise missiles.
A missile strike hit the communication hub of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol.
As a result of the missile strike on the Sevastopol naval base, the enemy's Large Landing Ships Yamal and Azov were hit. The ships were not sunk but sustained damage that renders them inoperable. The vessels are deemed irreparable. Crew casualties are estimated at 80%. The attack on Belbek Air Base resulted in the destruction of one Su-27 fighter jet and damage to two others. The air base communication node was also hit.
The strike was carried out using 40 Storm Shadow and Neptune missiles, as well as ADM-160 decoy missiles and strike UAVs.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps is advancing in the area of Spirne. Units of the 14th Artillery Brigade of the 1st Army Corps operate near Krasnohorivka.
Possible operation situation developments:
The likely operational-strategic objectives of the Russian troop grouping in the theater of military operations could include the seizure of the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts within their administrative borders.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces will make efforts to stabilize the front line and ensure an operational pause for 3-4 months to rearm and replenish personnel to a minimum of 150-200 thousand servicemen.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces will intensify attacks using long-range UAVs to target objects in the operational and strategic rear of the Russian Federation, primarily focusing on important targets such as oil and gas facilities, depots, pipelines, military airfields, factories producing dual-use goods, and war-related infrastructure.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain control of the final agglomeration (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk) in Donetsk Oblast; the strategic importance of the "Zapad (West)" operational grouping in the adversary's offensive campaign in 2024 is notably heightened.
The battles for Terny and Yampolivka will persist for a while, yet it is evident that the enemy will succeed in cutting off the Nevske-Torske road along the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River from north to south, likely in the area of Terny. The southern part of the foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River will be eliminated by the enemy in the near future.
The adversary's command will commit the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka.
The command of the 58th Army is poised to deploy the 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation northwest of Robotyne, aiming to bypass this defensive node of the Ukrainian OSG "Tavria" from the north and cut off the Robotyne-Novodanylivka road.
Russian operational losses from 25.02.22 to 25.03.24
Personnel - almost 437,390 people (+640);
Tanks - 6,887 (+11);
Armored combat vehicles – 13,183 (+25);
Artillery systems – 10,877 (+22);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 1,018 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 726 (+3);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,454 (+47);
Aircraft - 347 (0);
Helicopters – 325 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 8,539 (+29);
Intercepted cruise missiles - 1,010 (+18);
Boats/ships – 27 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian troops shelled 12 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 87 towns and villages and 69 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
On the night of March 25, 2024, the Russian Federation attacked Ukraine with 9 "Shahed" strike drones, 8 of which were successfully intercepted by Ukrainian air defense systems.
During the night of March 25, Russian attack drones struck two substations in the southern region, according to Ukrenergo's press service. As a result of the equipment damage, energy authorities are compelled to extend consumption restriction periods in Odesa and Odesa Oblast. As of 7:00 PM, electricity is unavailable for more than 300,000 customers in Odesa. 11 people were injured in the attack.
In the morning of March 25, Russian forces attacked Kyiv with two "Zircon" ballistic missiles from the occupied Crimea. Both missiles were intercepted, but their debris fell in several city districts. As of 14:45, there were reports of ten injured civilians. A part of the Art Academy building was destroyed.
In the evening of March 25th, the enemy launched a missile strike on Odesa. According to preliminary data, three women were injured, with non-serious injuries. There is damage to civilian infrastructure.
Currently, the power supply of Kharkiv is being provided by other regions, and it will take years to restore the thermal power plant (TPP), according to the press service of Kharkiv's TPP-5. The full extent of the damage inflicted on the TPP and the necessary restoration work can only be assessed after the completion of the inspection and dismantling of the debris.
According to Igor Syrota, the CEO of Ukrhydroenergo, restoring the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station to its pre-attack state after the Russian missile strike on March 22 will take years. Many of the impacts were directly on the turbines, resulting in equipment damage. Some turbines will need to be entirely rebuilt from scratch, a process that will take between 18 to 24 months. Additionally, the reconstruction of the machine room will be required as part of the restoration efforts.
In the liberated part of Kherson Oblast, 40% of agricultural land has been cleared of mines, totaling 206 thousand hectares, according to Dmytro Butriy, the first deputy chief of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration.