Russia's war on Ukraine. 23.09.24
Operational situation
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Dear readers,
We would like to draw your attention to the following piece by Andriy Zahorodnyuk, CDS Chairman and Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2019–2020).
The west’s cautious approach seeks to avoid escalation in Ukraine. It may have the opposite effect
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/west-ukraine-escalation-vladimir-putin
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Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy continued assault actions, with 7 engagements taking place in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhe.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 16 engagements. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Petropavlivka, Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, and Stelmakhivka. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy assaults near Makiivka, Nevske, Bilohorivka, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Novosadove, and Dibrova. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled two attacks near Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 12 enemy attempts to break through Ukrainian defense in the areas of Kalynivka, Klishchiivka, Hryhorivka, and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, with air support, launched 9 attacks, focusing efforts on the areas of Dachne, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka, and assaulted near Nelipivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 35 attacks. The enemy concentrated its main efforts in the areas of Krasnyi Yar, Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Selidove, Marynivka, Myrolyubivka, and Mykhailivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Hirnyk, Tsukuryne, Zhelanne Druhe, Heorhiivka, Katerynivka, and Kostyantynivka. Overall, the enemy attempted to break through Ukrainian defense 28 times on this direction. On the Vremivka direction, the occupiers launched 6 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Vuhledar. On the Orikhiv direction, there were 2 unsuccessful enemy engagements near Robotyne.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the enemy conducted one unsuccessful assault, facing strong resistance.
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue their operation in Kursk Oblast. The enemy launched 16 airstrikes on Kursk Oblast using 27 guided bombs (KABs).
On the Volyn and Polissya directions, there are no signs of enemy offensive group formations. The operational situation remains largely unchanged.
Along the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy maintains a military presence and has increased air activity. From the territory of the Russian Federation, they shelled Brusky, Malushyne, Pavlivka, Zhuravka, Velyka Pysarivka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, and several other border villages.
General conclusion:
In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy is shifting to a defensive posture and redeploying "Shtorm-Z" units and former Wagner Private Military Company units to this area.
On the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions, the situation continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian Defense Forces.
The enemy's “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping, jointly with the “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping, is completing the expulsion of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgehead on the Vovcha River between the villages of Hirnyk and Kurakhivka, although “Tavriya” OSG units continue to defend Zhelanne Druhe and the eastern part of Zoryane. However, this defense will not last long.
The enemy's breakthrough from Krasnohorivka to Hostre along with the approach of its forward units to Ostrivske and the breakthrough between Hirnyk and Selydove, has sharply worsened the situation for Ukrainian Defense Forces southeast and south of Selydove.
The enemy has achieved decisive superiority in forces and resources on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions, allowing them to accomplish their immediate tactical objectives in the area of Ozaryanivka–Nevelske. Ukrainian Defense Forces lack the necessary manpower for a successful defense in this area.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 162 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, "Siversk" OTG troops attacked near Novy Put, Obukhovka, and Medvezhie, Maryivka, Malaya Loknya, and Plekhovo.
Units of the enemy's 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade stormed Ukrainian positions in the Kalinnik tract.
On the Kharkiv direction, fighting continued near Hlyboke and Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained control over several positions northwest of Svatove along the tree lines west of Kyslivka.
Russian troops advanced east of Kruhlyakivka and continued offensive actions in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Novosilka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kotlyarivka, Stelmakhivka, towards Lozova, Druzhelyubivka, and Cherneshchyna.
On the Lyman direction, Russian troops captured most of Makiivka and entered Nevske, trying to capture Novolyubivka, but Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked and held back the enemy's advance. The enemy attacked near Hrekivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Makiyivka, Torske, Terny, and Dibrova.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian troops continued their assault near Vyimka but were unsuccessful.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops continued their advance in the Chasiv Yar area, moving from Klishchiivka and Hryhorivka towards Mayske, in the area of Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops advanced along Khobrusiev Street and New York Street in the central part of New York, to the center of Leonidivka, captured Nelipivka, advanced east of it, and in the southern part of Toretsk, capturing several residential buildings in the northwestern part of Pivnichne. They continued their advance in the Dachne area, in Toretsk, and towards Shcherbynivka. Advance units of the 35th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army and the 132nd Separate Motorized Rife Brigade of the 51st Army managed to break into the central part of Toretsk from the Pivnichne side.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops advanced slightly east and southeast of Pokrovsk, north of Novooleksandrivka, to the southern Kruty Yar, west of Mykhailivka, advanced south of Novohrodivka, and captured Mine No. 2 "Novohrodivska." Fighting continued in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Hrodivka, Krasnyi Yar, Selydove, Marynivka, Mykhailivka, and Hirnyk.
The enemy has already secured a foothold in Zhelanne Druhe in the "Agropromservis" area, continuing attempts to undermine the defense of Ukrainian units east of the Vovcha River, attacking generally from north to south along the eastern bank of the river, reaching the northern outskirts of Hirnyk, and will attempt to break into the village in the coming days.
Ukrainian defensive foothold on the Vovcha River has practically been eliminated. From the north, the forces of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping are advancing, reinforced by units of "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, including the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Army, and the 1st and 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army. The 5th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army back up the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping from the south.
In the Hrodivka area, the enemy managed to break through across the Zhuravka River over a sufficiently wide front up to Mykolaivka. This move has effectively undermined the "Tavriya" OSG's ability to stabilize the situation on the Pokrovsk direction, which relied on positions along the barrier line of the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers. The 15th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, along with parts of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Army, are gradually expanding their penetration in the Novohrodivka area and will attempt to fully take control of Krasnyi and Kruty Yar in the near future.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian troops captured Hostre, control half of Maksymilianivka, advanced to Oleksandropil, to the southwest of Krasnohorivka, and west of Hostre to the Selydove colony No. 82, conducting offensive actions in the Hryhorivka area.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian troops advanced in the fields northwest of Pavlivka, crossed the Kashlahach River west of Vuhledar, and conducted offensive actions near Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Vuhledar, Vodyane, and Pavlivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, the 5th Army advanced along Pyatykhatska Street in the northern part of Staromayorske, unsuccessfully attacking near Hulyaipole, in the areas of Novodanylivka and Novoandriivka.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army conducts combat operations near Kyslivka.
The "1st Assault Unit of the 'Wolves' Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade" and the artillery of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps are engaged in combat on the Kramatorsk direction.
The 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Army operates near Prechystivka. The "Shtorm" unit of the 68th Army Corps and the "Aleppo" unit are active near Katerynivka. The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet operates near Vuhledar.
The “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions includes the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, the 90th Tank Division, the 35th, 55th, and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army, the 15th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Army, the 1st, 132nd, 114th, and 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army, the 232nd MLRS Brigade, the 120th and 385th Artillery Brigades, the 92nd and 119th Missile Brigades, the 41st and 76th Air Defense Divisions, and the 24th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade of the 46th Air Force and Air Defense Army.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
In the near future, Ukrainian Defense Forces will retreat beyond the Vovcha River. Holding the defense along the Hirnyk–Kurakhivka line is also problematic, as is the defense of Selydove.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 23.09.24
Personnel - almost 643,750 (+1,330);
Tanks 8,784 (+16);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,252 (+30);
Artillery systems – 18,414 (+81);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,197 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 949 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,102 (+79);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 15,699 (+71);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,595 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of September 23, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 2 guided air-to-surface missiles (X-59/69) and 4 Shahed drones. Three enemy drones were destroyed, while the other aerial targets were suppressed using electronic warfare systems.
On the morning of September 23, in the Myropil community of Sumy Oblast, an enemy FPV drone struck a passenger bus carrying local residents. Two people were injured and evacuated to a medical facility.
In the morning near Romashkove in the Bilozerka community of Kherson Oblast, Russian forces attacked an ambulance with explosives from a drone. A 58-year-old paramedic and a 50-year-old driver were injured.
On Monday, September 23, Russian forces struck a critical infrastructure facility in Zaporizhzhia, injuring two people.
As a result of the Russian shelling of Kramatorsk and the village of Shakhove in Donetsk Oblast on the afternoon of September 23, a 45-year-old woman was killed, and 10 people were injured, including two children. According to the prosecutor's office, the occupiers attacked the city, reportedly using the Tornado-S multiple rocket launcher with a cluster munition.
Late in the evening on September 22, due to a Russian attack with six guided bombs on Zaporizhzhia, 21 people were injured, including a child. Buildings were partially destroyed as a result of the strike. Nearby houses were damaged by the blast wave and debris. This was the first time Zaporizhzhia was attacked with guided aerial bombs, which had not reached the city before.
Over the past day, power outages occurred in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson Oblasts due to shelling and combat actions, reports the press service of the Ministry of Energy.
Radio Free Europe reports, citing a resident of Simferopol in occupied Crimea, whose name cannot be disclosed for security reasons, that as of mid-September 2024, there are already 60 graves of fallen Russian soldiers in a separate military alley of sector No. 127 at the Abdal-1 cemetery in Simferopol. According to the local resident, there were 56 graves 10 days ago and only 20 a year ago. According to the President's Office in Crimea, at least 1,312 Russian soldiers who died in the war against Ukraine are buried in Crimea, of which approximately 762 were Ukrainian citizens.