Russia's war on Ukraine. 22.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched two unsuccessful assaults on Ukrainian positions near Vovchansk and Lyptsi.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the aggressor conducted offensive actions near Stelmakhivka, Dzherelne, Vyshneve, Zelenyi Hai, Pishchane, and Lozova. Ukrainian defenders repelled two enemy attacks. On the Lyman direction, Russian forces launched 14 assaults on positions near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Makiivka, Petropavlivka, Katerynivka, Lyman Pershyi, and Terny. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 enemy assaults toward Verkhnyokamianske and Pereyizne, with no success for the enemy. On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted to storm positions near Chasiv Yar. On the Toretsk direction, with air support, Russian forces launched assaults on Ukrainian positions near Toretsk.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy attacked 35 times in the areas of Sukha Balka, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Krasnyi Yar, Promin, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Selydove, and Mykhailivka. On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy attempted 27 assaults near Hirnyk, Novodmytrivka, Maksymilianivka, Heorhiivka, Dalnie, Katerynivka, and Antonivka. On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces launched 5 attacks near Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, and Zolote. On the Orikhiv direction, the invaders launched 1 assault near Mala Tokmachka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 4 Russian attacks, with no success for the enemy.
General conclusion:
On the Kursk direction, in the Glushkovo district, the “Siversk” OTG has completely halted major offensive actions and retreated to the border, maintaining only a small control zone. In the Korenevo district, the situation is developing very dynamically and could swing in favor of either side under certain conditions. Russian forces in Kursk Oblast are beginning to experience ammunition shortages after the loss of three arsenals.
Both sides have left Vovchansk, with the enemy conducting air and artillery strikes on the city.
On the Kupyansk direction, enemy forces will attempt to link up from Andriivka with units gradually extending the Russian salient northward toward the Oskil River. Once secured, they could launch an offensive on Borova along the Borova-Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi highway. Despite having a 3:1 advantage in the Borova area, the Russian "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping is under-resourced for a major offensive.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attack north of Nevske and have expanded their control zone. The next operation in this area aims to cut off the Ukrainian salient southeast of Makiivka and bypass Ukrainian Defense Forces positions west of this town.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy concentrates its efforts south of Hryhorivka. The force ratio here is 2.5:1, ruling out offensive operations in the short term.
After five months of fighting near the “Seversky Donets–Donbas” canal in Chasiv Yar, the enemy has only managed to establish a bridgehead on the western bank and advance 500 meters into the urban area along a 1.9 km front section.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy has significantly increased pressure toward Leonidivka. Their main goal remains the capture of Toretsk. However, the enemy lacks the strength and resources to implement its initial plan of attacking from the south to the north, aiming to outflank Ukrainian forces in Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar. The new immediate objective is to capture Toretsk by December.
The Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions remain the primary focus for Russian forces across the entire theater of operations. The bulk of reinforcements are arriving here, including those pulled from other sections of the front (Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, Crimea), as well as a large portion of artillery ammunition. The enemy’s command in this theater is attempting to maintain an 8:1 force ratio in their favor. The enemy attacks Vyshneve, trying to encircle Selydove.
On the Vremivka direction, the main attack vectors are Bohoyavlenka, Katerynivka, and Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces attempting to advance from two directions: from the south, pushing towards Makarivka, and from the southeast, attacking from Zolota Nyva.
Russian sources are trying to justify the slow pace of Russian progress in Kursk Oblast by falsely describing this direction as extremely difficult and claiming that they are fighting against 14 Ukrainian brigades and "Western private military companies."
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 107 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, the " Siversk" OTG advanced in the western part of Novoivanovka. Fighting took place near Novyi Put, Vesioloe, Nizhniy Klin, Novoivanovka, Liubimovka, Leonidovo, Zelionyi Put, Cherkasskoe Porechie, Kolmakov, Plekhovo, and Cherkasskya Konopelka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces attempted to cross the international border near Volfino, deploying additional reserves in the Kruglenkoe-Nikolskoe area, from where they launched an offensive with two Company Tactical Groups.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked near Vovchansk and Lyptsi.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued offensives around Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Novoosynove, Pishchane, Vyshneve, Yampolivka, Hrekivka, and towards Novomykhailivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Novosadove, Zarichne, Terny, and in the Serebriansk Forest area.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Pereyizne.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops attempt to advance south of the T0504 Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway toward Stupochky and have reached positions 7-8 km from Kostyantynivka’s outskirts.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops are attempting to advance along Druzhby Street in the center of Toretsk. Intense urban combat is ongoing in Toretsk, particularly near Druzhby and Nelipivka, with enemy attacks toward Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced to Lysychanska Street in the northeastern part of Selydove, along Stepna Street, and westward along the E50 highway. Units from the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army advanced to Zelena Street in central Zoryane and are pushing northwest toward Hirnyk. The enemy continued attacks near Sukha Balka, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Selydove, Lysivka, Mykhailivka, Sukhyi Yar, and Novotroitske.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces captured Maksymilianivka and Kostyantynivka, pushing north and south of these towns. Fighting also occurred near Kurakhove, Kurakhivka, Antonivka, and Kostyantynivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces near Maksymilianivka repelled an enemy assault toward Kurakhove, with the enemy attempting to advance in the suburban area east of Kurakhove.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced near Bohoyavlenka and in the fields northeast of Vuhledar, attacking near Vodyane and Novoukrainka.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 28 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 9th BARS detachment operates in the Kupyansk-Svatove area.
The 331st and 217th Airborne Regiments of the 98th Airborne Division and forces from the 3rd Army Corps operate near Chasiv Yar.
The 106th Airborne Division, 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, and 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division operate near Liubimovka and Zelionyi Put. Medical units of the evacuation group "Black Wolves" have recently been redeployed from the Bakhmut to the Kursk direction. Irregular Russian proxy forces including "Arbat," "Pyatnashka," "Sarmat," and "Arkhangely" (all part of the "Wild Division of Donbas" of the Russian Volunteer Corps) operate in Kursk Oblast.
In the so-called DNR, a "volunteer detachment named after Maksym Kryvonos" has been formed from former Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers who switched to Russia's side, and this unit is engaged in combat near Pokrovsk.
Possible operation situation developments:
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.
The enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping's 3rd Combined Arms Army will attempt to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Siversk salient and capture Chasiv Yar, in order to establish the conditions for further advances towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.
The enemy's 67th Motorized Rifle Division, part of the 44th Army Corps, is expected to begin assault operations on the Kharkiv direction soon, using assault companies from the 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment, supported by armored groups from the 11th Separate Tank Brigade and the 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division.
The consolidation of the enemy's tactical bridgeheads across the Chornyi Zherebets River will signal an increased intensity of actions by the forward units of the 25th Combined Arms Army in the directions of Zarichne, Yampolivka, and Torske.
In the short term, the enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping is expected to shift its main strike direction from Pokrovsk towards Kostyantynivka, Kurakhove, Uspenivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 22.10.24
Personnel - almost 681,580 (+1,350);
Tanks 9,079 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,199 (+24);
Artillery systems – 19,623 (+34);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,234 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 981 (+2);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 27,111 (+77);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 17,404 (+71);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2625 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russian forces have killed 581 children in Ukraine, according to the Office of the Prosecutor General. Over 2,230 children have been wounded during Russia’s ongoing military aggression.
During the night of October 22, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine using 60 Shahed drones and drones of unknown types. Ukrainian air defense successfully destroyed 42 drones, while 10 were lost from radars, 1 headed toward Belarus, and 3 returned to Russia.
On the night of October 22, a Russian drone strike hit a residential area in Sumy, killing three people, including a child, and injuring another person, all from the same family. Later that morning, Russians continued shelling Sumy, targeting residential buildings and critical infrastructure, causing power outages that stopped trolleybus services in the city.
In the village of Senkove, Kupiansk District, Kharkiv Oblast, a 31-year-old man was injured by a Russian drone strike.
On the morning of October 24, a Russian KAB-250 guided bomb hit a five-story building in Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, killing one person and injuring two others.
At approximately 9:30 AM on October 22, a Russian drone hit the ground in Kucherivka village, Kupiansk District, Kharkiv Oblast, injuring a 54-year-old man, who later died from his injuries in the hospital.
In the morning, Russian forces struck a bus stop in Dnipro District, Kherson, with a drone, injuring a 54-year-old woman.
On October 22, Russian forces attacked Nikopol District, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with kamikaze drones and artillery over 20 times, resulting in one fatality and one injury.
Over the past day, 214 people, including nine children, were evacuated from the Kupiansk and Borova directions in Kharkiv Oblast.
President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law amending Ukraine’s Criminal Code and Criminal Procedure Code following the ratification of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and its amendments.
According to UN estimates, since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s population has decreased by 10 million, or roughly one-quarter. This is due to emigration, declining birth rates, and war-related deaths, with 6.7 million refugees accounting for the largest portion of the population loss.