Russia's war on Ukraine. 22.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advanced to the western outskirts of Viktorovka and to the southwest and northwest of Nikolskiy. The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet is attempting to advance on Guevo, while the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade is fighting for Nikolayevka. Battles continued near Kurilovka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced near Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Lozova, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Kopanky, and Nadiya. They are engaged in battles for Zelenyi Hai and Novoyehorivka, attempting to reach the Borova–Bohuslavka line and advance west of Makiivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Terny and unsuccessfully attacked in the Kolodyazi area and toward Zarichne.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Verkhnyokamianske and Ivano-Dariivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced into the center of Chasiv Yar, continue fighting for the refractory materials plant, and attempted to advance to the northwestern and southwestern outskirts of the city. They attacked near Chasiv Yar, toward Stupochky and Fedorivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced to the spoil tip of the “Fomykha” mine and along Rizdvyana and Mykhailo Hrushevsky streets in northern Toretsk. They attacked near Krymske, Dyliivka, Ozaryanivka, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions in the southern part of Kotlyne.
Russian forces captured Zelene and Novyi Trud, advanced on the southwestern outskirts of Zvirove, and attacked near Pokrovsk, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, Myroliubivka, Baranivka, Yelyzavetivka, Myrnohrad, Promin, Lysivka, Shevchenkove, Nadiivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novoandriivka, and Kotlyne.
The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the commander of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping visited the command post of the 90th Tank Division.
The 74th and 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, the 239th Tank Regiment, and the 87th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army attempt to maximize their advance westward. The 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army is exerting frontal pressure on the Pokrovsk defense from the south, attacking from the Zelene–Dachenske line toward Chynushyne. For the third week, the grouping has been attacking "Khortytsia" OSG defenses at significant cost along the Pishchane–Zvirove, Vovkove–Kotlyne, Solone–Udachne, and Novovasylivka–Uspenivka directions. The enemy broke through the tactical defensive zone to a depth of 6.5 km and cut off the Pokrovsk–Mezhova road. Fierce battles continue for Kotlyne, Udachne, Zvirove, and Uspenivka.
The 506th and 589th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, along with the 137th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army, are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses near Mykolaivka toward the southern outskirts of Myrnohrad and Promin, aiming to tie up the reserves of the "Khortytsia" OSG but have so far been unsuccessful.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced west of Petropavlivka and northeast of Rozdolne, trying to gain control of the area between Petropavlivka and Shevchenkove, reach the outskirts of Konstyantynopil, and advance north of Sukhi Yaly. They bypass approaches to Andriivka from the north, attempting to reach the T0515 road between Andriivka and Pokrovsk, and attacked near Shevchenkove, Andriivka, Ulakly, Dachne, Konstyantynopil, Yantarne, and Rozlyv.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Dachne and Zelenivka, delivering a missile strike on the command post of the 29th Combined Arms Army in Volnovakha.
The 6th, 80th Tank Regiments, the 428th and 228th Motorized Rifle Regiments, and the 67th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division actively conduct assaults from the Novoyelyzavetivka–Yasenove line toward Nadiivka and Novoandriivka and along the Slovyanka–Petropavlivka line westward. Since January 16, the 90th Tank Division has advanced several hundred meters south of Novoandriivka and west of Slovyanka. The 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has not been able to secure its position on the outskirts of Andriivka since its last advance on January 12.
In the eastern and southern parts of the Kurakhove bridgehead, "Khortytsia" OSG units conduct fierce rearguard battles and counterattack while gradually retreating westward before the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army, and north of the Sukhi Yaly River before the 39th, 36th, and 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. The enemy has already initiated battles for Dachne and crossed the river in the area between Yantarne and Sukhi Yaly villages.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attempted to advance along Fontanna Street on the eastern side of Velyka Novosilka and attacked toward Pryvilne.
Forward units of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army have initiated battles in the southeastern part of Velyka Novosilka. Forward units of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army are advancing from the southwest toward the village itself, attacking through Vremivka. Forward units of the 336th Separate Marines Brigade of the Baltic Fleet approached the northern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka from Novyi Komar, making further retention of the southern part of the village in front of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade’s lines untenable.
General conclusion:
The intensity of fighting on the Novopavlivka direction has significantly decreased. The enemy is focusing its efforts on capturing Andriivka from the north.
In the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, the enemy has transitioned from attempting to penetrate deep into the operational defense to a much slower effort of pushing out the "Khortytsia" OSG forward units in selected directions and sectors. However, on the Vremivka direction, enemy command continues to attempt to bypass the "Khortytsia" OSG’s defensive areas.
The enemy continues to engage in limited tactical-scale offensive actions on the Kursk, Kupiansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, and Toretsk directions, where they have achieved some results over January.
Only southwest of Pokrovsk, in the enemy’s main strike direction, a concentrated grouping of three motorized rifle brigades, one tank regiment, one motorized rifle regiment, and one rifle regiment is advancing over a relatively narrow 6–6.5 km front between Solone and Shevchenko (upper). This grouping exceeds tactical norms by nearly six times.
The enemy has the capability to expand its offensive operations toward Novohrodivka–Lysivka and the area between Novotoretske and Myroliubivka, aiming to narrow the defensive zone of "Khortytsia" OSG from the southeast and east. However, the enemy would face the challenge of storming Myrnohrad and Promin, which is a complex tactical task given the composition and number of deployed forces on these directions.
The 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army, along with the 1195th and 1438th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 41st Combined Arms Army, have sharply reduced their advance in the area of Vozdvyzhenka. Despite continuous attacks on the road junction of the Bakhmut–Pokrovsk road, toward Yelyzavetivka and Baranivka, the enemy has been unable for four days to reach the road junction, capture Baranivka, or enter Yelyzavetivka. The village is constantly attacked from the south via the Kazennyi Torets River and from occupied Vozdvyzhenka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the Russian military command aims to pressure the attack zone of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army while introducing the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army into combat from the north to force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the area of Dachne and south of it.
Ukrainian command fully understands the importance of holding Andriivka and the section of the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk highway between Dachne and Ulakly villages to ensure an organized withdrawal. These areas are steadfastly held, and in the Zelenivka area, the "Khortytsia" OSG successfully pushed the enemy out of several forest belts north of the village.
Considering that all roads leading to Velyka Novosilka have already been cut off, the withdrawal of Ukrainian units northwest from Velyka Novosilka toward Burlatske is only a matter of time. The longer the "Khortytsia" OSG defends Velyka Novosilka, the more difficult the withdrawal will be. Simultaneously, holding Novoocheretuvate will be a mandatory condition, as the enemy will attempt to prevent a retreat from the Novyi Komar area.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 109 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, there was a single engagement with Russian occupiers near Vovchansk. The enemy carried out an airstrike on Vovchanski Khutory.
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy made 10 attempts to displace Ukrainian units from their positions near Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Lozova, Kutkivka, and Nova Kruhlyakivka. Hlushkivka came under an airstrike.
On the Lyman direction, the aggressor attacked 13 times, attempting to advance near Kopanky, Terny, and Kolodyazi. Enemy aircraft struck Nadiia.
On the Siversk direction, the occupiers tried to advance toward Ivano-Dariivka, but Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the attack.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled six enemy attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar and Fedorivka. Mayske and Stupochky were subjected to airstrikes.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy made six attempts to breach Ukrainian defenses and carried out airstrikes on Druzhba and Kostyantynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy intensely attacks Ukrainian defenders. The aggressor carried out 54 assault and offensive actions, showing the greatest activity near Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, Yelyzavetivka, Hryshyne, Novoserhiyivka, Petropavlivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Myrnohrad, Novyi Trud, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Slovyanka, Sribne, Shevchenko, Andriivka, Ulakly, Yantarne, and Dachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, three enemy assault actions were stopped as the occupiers attempted to advance on Ukrainian positions near Konstyantynopil and Velyka Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked once toward Kamianske and carried out an airstrike near Novoandriivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled two enemy attacks.
Seven combat engagements occurred on the Kursk direction, and the enemy also carried out 21 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 6 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Units of the 5th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division (its main forces operate on the Kramatorsk direction) conduct combat operations in Kursk Oblast.
The 299th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division and the volunteer reconnaissance and assault brigade "Ispanyola" operate near Chasiv Yar, while the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps is active near Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
The 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 24th Separate SOF Brigade are engaged near Baranivka.
The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps operates near Sukhi Yaly, and the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army is active near Dachne.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:
A breakthrough to the city from the south and the gradual expulsion of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the city due to numerical superiority in forces and means (the enemy's tactics in Chasiv Yar).
A deep encirclement of Pokrovsk from the south, cutting the road to Mezhova, regrouping part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army's forces, encircling the city from the north as well, cutting the T0504 road to Kostyantynivka.
The further enemy actions on the Novopavlivka direction will aim to prevent the consolidation of "Khortytsia" OSG units in the Rozlyv–Konstyantynopil–Andriivka–Ulakly area. The Russian military command is likely to simultaneously intensify pressure with forces from the 90th Tank Division and increase efforts in the operational zone of "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. Troops from the 8th Combined Arms Army (20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions) of the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping are expected to participate in these actions, with some units likely being redeployed after the withdrawal of the "Khortytsia" OSG from the remaining positions at the Kurakhove bridgehead.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 22.01.25
Personnel - almost 823,980 (+1,600);
Tanks 9,844 (+11);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,485 (+8);
Artillery systems – 22,194 (+60);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,262 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,050 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 34,837 (+155);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 23,039 (+141);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,051 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
From 19:00 on January 21, the enemy launched 99 strikes using Shahed-type attack drones and decoy drones. As of 09:00, 65 attack drones had been confirmed shot down. Thirty enemy decoy drones were lost from tracking. Damage was reported to institutions, industrial facilities, agricultural buildings, private, and multi-story residential buildings in Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts.
In the morning, Russian forces shelled Blahovishchenske and Bilozerka in Kherson Oblast. Two people were injured. In Kherson, a woman was wounded as a result of an explosive device dropped from a drone. During the day, shelling in Kherson Oblast injured two more people: a 41-year-old woman in the village of Komyshany and a 61-year-old man in Bilozerka. Additionally, the enemy attacked the village of Mylove, where a residential building was destroyed.
On January 22, 2025, Russia carried out nine airstrikes on Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast within 15 minutes. One person was killed, and five others were injured. Apartment buildings, private houses, garages, vehicles, power lines, and a gas pipeline were damaged. Preliminary information indicates that the enemy used "FAB-250" aerial bombs equipped with UMPK modules.
Late on January 21, Russian occupiers attacked Mykolaiv with seven strike drones. As a result, two people were injured. Fires broke out in the city, damaging a residential building, a boat cooperative, a business, and public transport. A 74-year-old woman is in critical condition.
In Sumy, a Russian attack drone strike late on January 21 injured four people and damaged 13 private homes.
Since September, air defense forces have shot down about 1,000 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast.
The residents of 38 settlements in the Konotop and Shostka districts of Sumy Oblast have been fully evacuated.
The enemy continues shelling the border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts. Since the beginning of the year, over 2,500 shelling incidents have been recorded by border units. Fifty-five of these involved aviation, over 1,000 involved artillery, and more than 1,400 involved drones. Recently, Russia has intensified aviation attacks on Chernihiv Oblast.
A survey by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Center shows that nearly 70% of Ukrainians report fluency in Ukrainian. Additionally, 27% can use Ukrainian in daily life but struggle with complex topics. Only 2% have difficulty understanding the language, while 0.5% do not understand it at all. Ukrainian is fluently spoken by 95% of residents in western oblasts, 65% in central oblasts, 60% in southern oblasts, and 50% in eastern oblasts. Ukrainian is considered the native language by 78% of respondents, up from 68% in 2017 and 60% in 2015. The proportion of those speaking Ukrainian at home has risen to 70.5%, an increase of 20% since 2015. Meanwhile, the share of those who view Russian as more prestigious has dropped to 6%, down 15% from 2015.
In temporarily occupied Crimea, Russian occupation administration began using new methods to Russify Crimean Tatar children. Schools and kindergartens with Russian-language instruction are opened in areas of compact settlement. Crimean Tatar is offered only as an elective, requiring parents to submit a written request, according to Eskender Bariiev, head of the Crimean Tatar Resource Center and the Majlis’ external relations and human rights activities department.
In occupied Luhansk Oblast, 10,827 foreign citizens and stateless persons were registered for migration in the first 11 months of 2024. As of December 10, 2023, only 3,848 people were officially listed. The Eastern Human Rights Group believes these figures indicate Kremlin attempts to address labor shortages and tighten control over occupied territories.