Russia's war on Ukraine. 21.11.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted 4 unsuccessful assault actions in the areas of Vovchansk and Starytsia.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Kucherivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Zelenyi Hai. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 10 enemy attacks. The invaders concentrated their main efforts in the areas of Cherneshchyna, Zarichne, Hryhorivka, Serebrianka, and Terny. On the Siversk and Kramatorsk directions, the enemy carried out airstrikes in the areas of Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Lypivka. On the Toretsk direction, using bomber aviation, the enemy attempted 7 advances in the area of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 34 enemy attacks. The enemy attempted to advance near Myrolyubivka, Pustynka, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Krasnyi Yar, Lyskivka, Yuryivka, Zhovte, Petrivka, Dachenske, Novooleksiivka, Hryhorivka, and Pushkyne. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the enemy on the Kurakhove direction. In the areas of Berestky, Zoria, Sontsivka, Maksymilianivka, Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Antonivka, the invaders attempted to breach Ukrainian defensive lines 29 times. An equal number of enemy attacks were stopped by Ukrainian Defense Forces in the areas of Trudove, Konstyantynopolske, Rozdolne, Velyka Novosilka, and Novodaryivka on the Vremivka direction.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 Russian attacks on their positions.
General conclusion:
The military-political leadership of the Russian Federation is likely preparing to test the new RS-26 "Rubezh" ballistic missile in combat conditions. The warhead's weight is 1.2 tons. The launch may occur from a range in the Astrakhan region.
By the end of the year, the enemy grouping in Ukraine will not reach the planned strength of 690,000 personnel. The enemy will conduct the winter campaign of 2024-25 within its current structure. Due to socio-economic, domestic, and foreign political reasons, the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation cannot announce mobilization.
The composition and structure of the enemy's strategic reserves (divisions) are being deployed in the operational zones of "Sever (North)" and "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Groupings, i.e., where the enemy is currently advancing and seeks to achieve at least operational success.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations is forced either to continue offensive operations in the operational zones of "Sever (North)" and "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Groupings or to shift its main attack direction to other sectors, which is impossible without strategic redeployment, as they lack the ability to simultaneously and fundamentally increase the size of the entire grouping in the theater of operations.
The "Tavriya" OSG continues to hold a bridgehead measuring 6 by 10 kilometers and Antonivka, Katerynivka, Illinka, Yelyzavetivka, Romanivka, Hannivka, Trudove, Uspenivka, and Konstyantynopolske.
Russian forces are attempting to increase the intensity of assaults on the Vremivka direction, trying to cut the logistics route of the "Tavriya" OSG between Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove.
Russian forces are experiencing ammunition shortages in certain frontline sectors and increasingly use the Soviet-era 122-mm and 130-mm howitzers on the battlefield.
Russian forces have begun dispersing their artillery and command systems along the front line to avoid concentrating equipment in one area and reducing vulnerability to Ukrainian strikes.
The commander of the North Korean military contingent in the Russian Federation is Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the North Korean Armed Forces, Colonel General Kim Yong Bok.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 153 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk direction, Russian troops attacked north of Zelionyi Put and northwest of Malaya Loknia.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked in the areas of Vovchansk and Starytsia.
Units of the "Kharkiv" OTG counterattacked near Hlyboke and Lyptsi.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops advanced on the western outskirts of Hlushkivka, north and southwest of Kruhlyakivka, and attacked near Kindrashivka, Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, Pershotravneve, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanka, Cherneshchyna, and Novoyehorivka. The enemy did not advance beyond the Oskil River.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked northeast of Kupyansk.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Hrekivka, Zarichne, Terny, Torske, and Hryhorivka, and carried out an airstrike on a pontoon crossing over the Siverskyi Donets River near Raihorodok with an X-38 air-to-surface missile.
On the Siversk direction, Russian troops operate south of Siversk under constant pressure from UAVs of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops advanced east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, to the right bank of the "Siverskyi Donets – Donbas" canal, west of Ozaryanivka, in the "Zhovtnevy" neighborhood in Chasiv Yar, and continued assaulting near Stupochky. The enemy is trying to consolidate positions between Chasiv Yar and Klishchiivka near the canal, in the center of Chasiv Yar, and is attacking the brick factory.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops advanced on the northern and southwestern outskirts of Toretsk, moved forward in the area of multi-story buildings in central Toretsk, strengthened positions along Hrushevskoho Street and near the "Avanhard" stadium, and continued their assault near Druzhba and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces regained lost positions south of Mykolaivka.
Russian troops advanced to Yuryivka, in the direction of Pustynka, west of Novooleksiivka, and continued their assault in the area of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Krasnyi Yar, Lyskivka, Dachenske, Petrivka, Hryhorivka, Pushkyne, Zhovte, and Yuryivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army advanced and captured Nova Illinka, while the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade advanced in the eastern part of Kurakhove. Russian troops advanced south of Sontsivka, east of Berestky, along Franka Street in eastern Kurakhove, along the railway bridge over the reservoir, advanced into Berestky and Kurakhove from the north, conducted reconnaissance near multi-story buildings in Kurakhove, and continued their assault near Kurakhove, Zoria, Sontsivka, Novoselydivka, Berestky, Maksymilianivka, and Dalnie.
On the Vremivka direction, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army advanced northeast of Bohoyavlenka. Russian troops attempted to advance near Trudove, at the line of Konstyantynopolske – Sukhi Yaly, in the direction of Veselyi Hai, to the north of Antonivka, Yelyzavetivka, north of Makarivka, Rivnopil, and Novodaryivka, and attacked in the area of Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Antonivka, Trudove, Konstyantynopolske, Sukhi Yaly, Rozdolne, Velyka Novosilka, and Novodaryivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Rivnopil.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian troops attacked near Novoandriivka, Nesteryanka, and Mala Tokmachka, but failed to advance.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 24 ships, including 5 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 28 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
As of the morning of November 16, the total number of the "Joint grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations" amounted to 567,200 personnel.
The formation of new divisions continues:
The 27th Motorized Rifle Division has been fully formed and deployed into combat on the Pokrovsk direction.
The 69th, 71st, and 72nd Motorized Rifle Divisions are practically formed and partially deployed in combat on the Vovchansk and Kursk directions.
The 68th, 73rd, and 74th Motorized Rifle Divisions are still being formed.
The divisions are planned to be composed as follows:
The "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping - 27th Motorized Rifle Division (2nd Combined Arms Army), 73rd and 74th Motorized Rifle Divisions (41st Combined Arms Army);
The "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping - 68th and 69th Motorized Rifle Divisions (6th Combined Arms Army), 71st Motorized Rifle Division (14th Army Corps), 72nd Motorized Rifle Division (44th Army Corps).
The 2nd Artillery Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army operates near Fedorivka, south of Siversk.
The 299th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division is advancing in Chasiv Yar.
The 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 68th Army Corps operates near Trudove.
Possible operation situation developments:
The troops of the 20th Combined Arms Army will be used by the command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping on the flanks of its operational zone to facilitate the offensives of the 1st Tank Army and the 25th Combined Arms Army on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, respectively. The redeployment of part of the forces of the 20th Army to the operational zones of the 1st Tank Army and the 25th Army is likely.
If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka.
Before the end of November “Tavriya” OSG will withdraw from its positions along the Yelyzavetivka–Konstyantynopil line, Kurakhove, and the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir to avoid encirclement.
After capturing Kurakhove, the forces of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will focus on seizing Velyka Novosilka, which may occur in January 2025 following regrouping and replenishment of losses.
By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the "belt of fortresses" Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 21.11.24
Personnel - almost 727,250 (+1,510);
Tanks 9,398 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles – 19,143 (+24);
Artillery systems – 20,731 (+50);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,253 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,003 (+2);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 29,745 (+97);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 19,259 (+57);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,756 (+2)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the morning of November 21, 2024, between 5:00 and 7:00, Russian forces attacked the city of Dnipro (targeting businesses and critical infrastructure) with various types of missiles. Specifically, they launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, an aeroballistic Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" missile, and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles. Six Kh-101 missiles were destroyed by the Ukrainian Air Force. Damage was inflicted on an industrial facility, a rehabilitation center, residential buildings, and garages. As a result of the strike, 3 people were injured.
On Thursday, November 21, Russian occupation forces launched a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. Preliminary reports indicate 31 people were injured. An administrative building was partially destroyed, and two two-story residential buildings were damaged.
On November 20 at 22:00, the Russians struck the city of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast. Preliminary information suggests the enemy dropped two "FAB-250" aerial bombs with UMPK modules on the town, one of which hit a residential area. Five women and one man were injured.
During the day, Russian forces continued to attack civilians in Kherson Oblast. A 44-year-old man was injured in Berislav due to an attack by a UAV.
Since the beginning of November, border guard groups have recorded approximately 2,000 enemy shellings of the Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The enemy actively uses both artillery and drones. Aviation is also frequently employed on the Sumy direction.
On the morning of November 21, emergency power outages were implemented in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, as well as in the Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts, against the backdrop of Russian missile strikes. Later, Kyiv and 16 Oblasts of Ukraine introduced stricter restrictions on power for consumers. In the afternoon, the duration of outages was increased.
Missile strikes conducted by Russia over the weekend hit three out of the five operational thermal power plants owned by the Ukrainian energy giant DTEK, with one still non-functional. Distribution stations were also targeted in the attacks.