Russia's war on Ukraine. 21.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy made 4 unsuccessful attempts to attack in the Vovchansk area.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the number of combat engagements reached 12, with Ukrainian Defense Forces repelling enemy attacks near Holubivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Pishchane, Vyshneve, and Novoosynove. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 20 enemy assaults, with the main efforts concentrated near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Yampilivka, Novosadove, Terny, Zarichne, and the Serebriansk Forest. Ukrainian Defense Forces also repelled 1 attack near Ivano-Dariivka on the Siversk direction. Two enemy attempts to advance near Stupochky were stopped by Ukrainian troops on the Kramatorsk direction. The enemy made five attempts to advance near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka on the Toretsk direction.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 46 attacks. The enemy attempted to advance near Mykhailivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolyubivka, Novotroitske, and Sukhyi Yar. The enemy concentrated efforts around Selydove and Promin, resulting in 22 and 9 clashes, respectively. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back enemy advances. In the areas of Hirnyk, Novodmytrivka, Kurakhivka, Kostyantynivka, Maksymilianivka, Antonivka, Kurakhove, and Vodyane, the enemy tried 59 times to breach Ukrainian defense lines. On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 11 attacks near Bohoyavlenka and one near Novoukrainka. On the Orikhiv direction, enemy units made 3 attempts to advance near Robotyne.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 6 Russian attacks.
The operational situation on the Volyn and Polissya directions remains unchanged, with no signs of enemy offensive groupings forming. On the border with the Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy maintains a military presence, conducting reconnaissance activities and artillery shelling. Ukrainian forces continue their operation on the Kursk direction.
General conclusion:
The command of the enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping has not made a decision regarding further offensive operations on the Pokrovsk direction or an assault on the city of Pokrovsk.
The enemy is attempting to advance towards the closer approaches to the "Tavriya" OSG’s Kurakhove defense district simultaneously from the north and west and push Ukrainian Defense Forces west of the Vovcha River on the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir.
The 2nd Combined Arms Army's advance in the northwestern direction toward Pokrovsk is becoming more threatening without the capture of Selydove.
Recently, on the Kramatorsk direction the enemy achieved certain tactical successes in the Chasiv Yar area.
The enemy's " Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, conducting combat operations on the Kramatorsk and Toretsk directions, has for a long time been unsuccessfully attempting to reach the closer approaches to the city of Kostyantynivka.
The "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping’s command is focusing its efforts on advancing towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and after their capture, toward Selydove. The situation is complicated by the need to continuously solve numerous ongoing tactical issues.
The "Tavriya" OSG's hold on the areas of Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove is gaining increasing operational significance.
A portion of the 51st Combined Arms Army's forces, gradually shifting from the Kurakhove direction to the Toretsk direction (1st and 5th Motorized Rifle Brigades), may be deployed into combat by the enemy command in this sector.
The deployment of an assault motorized rifle regiment, alongside an additional assault battalion, to reinforce the most challenging for Ukrainian Defense Forces sector of the front between Selydove and Hirnyk near Tsukuryne, aimed at executing a flanking maneuver and potential encirclement of Selydove, necessitates the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping to conduct a force realignment.
The enemy’s situation is further complicated by the fact that Ukrainian Defense Forces firmly hold their positions on the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir, maintaining the possibility of counterattacks across the river from the Vovchenka–Oleksandropil line into the flank and rear of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division advancing on Kurakhove. Also, the "Tavriya" OSG holds the Novoselydivka–Hirnyk line and small sections of territory east of the Vovcha River near Oleksandropil and Zhelanne Druhe. The 90th Tank Division has failed to complete its tasks and has fallen behind the operation schedule.
The Russian command in the theater of operations has concentrated the maximum possible force within the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping, both in the front line and in its second echelon and operational reserve. Expanding the grouping further, given simultaneous offensives on the Kursk, Kupiansk, and Kramatorsk directions, is impossible.
The offensive on the Pokrovsk direction has begun to fragment into separate local tactical sectors. Simultaneously, tactical tasks must be solved for the capture of Selydove, Kurakhove, and Toretsk, and cutting off the Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka road.
In the operational zone of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Group (taking into account the Kurakhove direction), up to 100,000 personnel are involved. There is a noticeable trend toward the overall reduction in the size of tactical groups deployed in certain tactical sectors, with their numbers sustained through the use of reserves.
The "Tavriya" OSG, in the course of its defensive operations in the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, or Kurakhove directions, is capable of creating tactical problems for the enemy, which will require additional reserves, leading to the depletion of human resources across the entire grouping in the theater of operations.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 197 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, "Siversk" OTG advanced north of Sudza, east of Cherkasskoe Porechie, and attacked near Kruglenkoe and Leonidovo.
Russian troops attacked near Malaya Loknia and Plekhovo.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops attacked near Vovchansk and Starytsia without success.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops advanced into the central and southern parts of Kruhlyakivka, with fighting for the village continuing. The occupiers advanced in the area of Holubivka, Kucherivka, Novoosynove, Lozova, Kolisnykivka, and Stepova Novoselivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy was active near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Yampolivka, Novosadove, Zarichne, Terny, and Serebrianka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops continued their offensive in the area of Chasiv Yar, attempting to cross the "Seversky Donets – Donbas" canal in civilian clothing, and continued their assault near Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Andriivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops advanced along Druzhby Street in the center of Toretsk, northeast of Nelipivka, and continued their attacks in the area of Oleksandro-Shultyne and Shcherbynivka.
Recently, operating south of Dzerzhynskyi Street, through the area of the Toretsk penal colony No. 2, the enemy managed to take control of the Toretsk bread factory and the adjacent territory. The advanced units of the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade are trying to break through along Mayakovsky Street towards the Toretsk covered market, engaging in fierce close combat in the buildings on Tereshkova and Lisna Streets. All enemy attempts to advance towards Zalizne – Zabalka have so far ended unsuccessfully for them. Units of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 109th Rifle Regiment completely captured New York and clung to the eastern outskirts of Nelipivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped the enemy's advance along the Kryvyi Torets River to the north, bypassing Toretsk from the south.
The enemy is trying to operate towards the village of Sukha Balka, attempting to bypass Ukrainian Defense Forces, which continue to hold the area of Kalynove – Sukha Balka – Panteleymonivka – Oleksandropil, thus hindering any enemy advance from the south towards Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops reached the northeastern outskirts of Selydove, advanced into the eastern outskirts deep into the city, and attack from the north and south. The enemy advanced to the outskirts of Vyshneve from the south along the railway line to Vozdvyzhenka, near Hirnyk, but failed.
Russian troops continued the offensive in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Promin, Myrolyubivka, Novotoretske, Sukhy Yar, Mykhailivka, Selydove, Novodmytrivka, Hirnyk, Zhelanne Druhe, and Zoryane.
The 30th and 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Army Corps, with the support of the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army Corps, captured Hrodivka and Mykolaivka and broke through the barrier line along the Zhuravka River. The 27th Motorized Rifle Division and the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army Corps managed to advance westward from the capture of Novohrodivka towards Lysivka and Sukhy Yar, taking control of Krasnyi Yar and Kruty Yar, expanding the penetration in the area of Mykolaivka, and moving from the north through Marynivka and Novohrodivka to the outskirts of Selydove. The 90th Tank Division achieved the most success south of Selydove in the area of Tsukuryne and further south, in the direction of Kurakhivka, trying to press the defending units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces along the Voznesenka – Zhelanne Druhe line to the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir.
The "Tavriya" OSG units in the direction of Novoselydivka – Hirnyk are slowly retreating but put up serious resistance to the enemy.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian troops advanced within and south of Maksymilianivka, continuing the assault near Kurakhove. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army Corps is advancing in the directions of Heorhiivka – Maksymilianivka and Krasnohorivka – Ostrivske, trying to break into Kurakhove directly from the east. The 5th and 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army Corps provide active support, trying to push the "Tavriya" OSG units across the Vovcha River in the direction of Zoryane – Kurakhivka, while the 90th Tank Division, with the support of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, is advancing on a broader front from the north, trying to break through the line of Voznesenka – Zhelanne Druhe and either encircle or force the Ukrainian units to retreat westward of the railway in the area of Berestky – Voznesenka, thus completely abandoning the entire area of Voznesenka – Hirnyk – Kurakhivka – Berestky.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian troops advanced in the area of Katerynivka, Antonivka, Bohoyavlenka, in the direction of Novoukrainka, and continued assaults near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian troops continued the assault near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka but were unsuccessful.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 28 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Units of the 16th Separate SOF Brigade are active in the Petropavlivka area.
The 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division and the 1st unit of the "Volki" (Wolves) Volunteer Reconnaissance-Assault Brigade are engaged in combat near Chasiv Yar.
The 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army conducts operations on the Pokrovsk direction.
The "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping includes the 2nd, 41st, and 51st Combined Arms Armies. The 51st Combined Arms Army operates on the Toretsk direction and partially on the Kurakhove direction. The 41st Combined Arms Army is active on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions, holding the entire northern flank of the Avdiivka-Hrodivka bridgehead. The 2nd Combined Arms Army is engaged on the Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad directions, and partially on the Kurakhove direction, while the 90th Tank Division operates on the Kurakhove direction, in the Selydove area and further south.
The grouping on the Toretsk direction includes the 1st, 9th, and 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, 8-9 rifle regiments, 3-4 rifle battalions, totaling 18,000-19,000 personnel, up to 70 tanks, around 215 armored combat vehicles, 164-166 artillery pieces and mortars, and 50 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). The 372nd Rifle Battalion, with up to 250 personnel, 3 tanks, 3 armored combat vehicles, and 3 anti-tank missile systems, is held in reserve.
The grouping in the Pokrovsk direction consists of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies, up to 20 rifle regiments, 14 rifle battalions, totaling 70,000 personnel, up to 310 tanks, 720 armored combat vehicles, 880 artillery pieces and mortars, and more than 200 MLRS. Strike and army aviation carry out 10-12 sorties daily in support of this group. In operational reserve are 5 motorized rifle regiments, including 2 assault regiments, the 80th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, and up to 5 reserve rifle battalions, with a reserve force of 14,000-15,000 personnel, up to 100 tanks, 230 armored combat vehicles, 166 artillery pieces and mortars, and 24 MLRS.
Possible operation situation developments:
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.
The enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping's 3rd Combined Arms Army will attempt to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Siversk salient and capture Chasiv Yar, in order to establish the conditions for further advances towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.
The enemy's 67th Motorized Rifle Division, part of the 44th Army Corps, is expected to begin assault operations on the Kharkiv direction soon, using assault companies from the 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment, supported by armored groups from the 11th Separate Tank Brigade and the 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division.
The consolidation of the enemy's tactical bridgeheads across the Chornyi Zherebets River will signal an increased intensity of actions by the forward units of the 25th Combined Arms Army in the directions of Zarichne, Yampolivka, and Torske.
In the short term, the enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping is expected to shift its main strike direction from Pokrovsk towards Kostyantynivka, Kurakhove, Uspenivka, and Velyka Novosilka.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 21.10.24
Personnel - almost 680,230 (+1,710);
Tanks 9,071 (+24);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,175 (+64);
Artillery systems – 19,589 (+24);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,232 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 979 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 27,034 (+47);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 17,333 (+46);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,624 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
As of 09:30, the Air Force of Ukraine detected 119 enemy air attack assets, including one Iskander-M ballistic missile, two X-31P and X-35guided air-to-surface missiles, as well as 116 enemy UAVs launched from Russian territory. Confirmation was received for the downing of 59 enemy UAVs. 45 Russian drones were lost in location. There were several strikes by UAVs on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
In the morning of October 21, the Russians launched a missile strike on the center of the city of Zaporizhzhia. Two people were killed, 15 were injured, and a large amount of civilian infrastructure was damaged, including a kindergarten.
In the morning, the enemy carried out a massive air strike on the city of Sumy. According to the Oblast Military Administration, the Russians directed the "Shahed" UAVs at residential areas and critical infrastructure facilities. The consequences of the enemy's attack are being clarified.
In the afternoon of October 21, in Kherson Oblast, Russian troops attacked a civilian vehicle with a drone in the village of Novovorontsovka—two people were injured, and the enemy also wounded a resident of the village of Mykilske with a drone.
In the evening of October 20, the enemy attacked Odesa Oblast with missiles and strike drones. As a result of the missile attack on port infrastructure, a fire broke out. Fortunately, there were no casualties or injuries.
At 23:30 on October 20, the enemy launched a ballistic attack on Kryvyi Rih, damaging a civilian infrastructure facility in the city and a very densely populated multi-story building area. Three people were injured.
At 22:10 on Sunday, Russian troops struck Kharkiv, hitting three districts of the city. As a result, there were problems with the electricity supply; 12 people were reported injured, including one child. A total of 47 residential buildings—private and multi-story—were damaged.
On October 21, the Russian army shelled the Pokrovsky district in Donetsk Oblast. In Myrnohrad, there were 2 fatalities and 1 injury; 15 multi-story buildings, 14 economic structures, 2 garages, a shop, and a trade pavilion were damaged.
Over the past day, 118 people, including three children, were evacuated from the Kupiansk and Borivsk directions in Kharkiv Oblast.
On Monday, India repatriated 85 of its citizens from the combat zone, who were tricked into signing contracts with the Russian army and sent to fight against Ukraine. The authorities are working to free another 20 citizens, reports Hindustan Times.