Russia's war on Ukraine. 21.03.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advance toward the northern outskirts of Rubanshchina and southeast of Gogolevka, continue clearing Gogolevka, attempt to advance east of Novenke, and attack near Basivka.
The Russian military command deploys reserves near the state border within Belgorod Oblast.
Ukrainian Defense Forces advance northwest of Prilesie and southwest of Demidovka in Belgorod Oblast, engage in battles for Liptsy, partially encircle Demidovka from the south, and continue attacking northwest of the city of Belgorod near the international border in the areas of Grafovka and Prilesie. They destroed a bridge near Grafovka to complicate Russian logistics. Near Demidovka, a missile strike destroyed the forward command post of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army, from which the enemy controls its troops engaged in combat in Sumy Oblast.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive but failed to advance near Hlyboke and Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Kindrashivka, Dvorichna, Kamyanka, Petropavlivka, and Zahryzove, establishing a new foothold along the Kamyanka-Kolodyazi road (northeast of Lyman).
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance west of Balka Zhuravka, attacked near Yampolivka and Ivanivka, and advanced toward Novomykhailivka, Nove, and Zelena Dolyna.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar, Minkivka, Novomarkove, toward Oleksandro-Shultyne, and near Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Toretsk, attempted to move northwest of the city near the "Toretska" mine, and attacked near Druzhba, Krymske, Dachne, and Dyliivka. They attempted to complicate Ukrainian logistics near Toretsk and take control of the roads that Ukrainian Defense Forces used to supply their units.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced toward the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway west of Vodyane Druhe and toward Novaya Street in Shevchenkove. The 68th Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army attempted to advance from Novobakhmutivka to Oleksandropil along the H20 Donetsk-Kostyantynivka highway. The enemy attacked near Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Oleksandropil, Panteleymonivka, Promin, Zelene Pole, Novotoretske, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Kotlyne, Zvirove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, and toward Serhiivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Rozlyv and attacked near Konstyantynopil and Bahatyr.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces advanced along Stepova Street in Novosilka, attempted to capture an area south of Pryvilne, advanced near Novodarivka, Shevchenkove, and Vilne Pole, and attacked near Burlatske, Pryvilne, and toward Novopil. The 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades operated in the operational zone of the 36th Combined Arms Army, but due to losses, they lost offensive potential and slowed their advance.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Vesele and Novodarivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division captured Pyatykhatky and attempted to advance north of the village and clear Lobkove. Russian forces attempted to advance toward Novodanylivka. The enemy reached the T0812 Orikhiv-Kamianske road in the Stepove-Shcherbaky section, advanced toward Stepove, and attacked near Novoandriivka, Lobkove, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, and Novodanylivka.
General conclusion:
The grouping of Russian forces near Kharkiv Oblast remains unchanged. The enemy replenishes losses and unsuccessfully continues to create a buffer zone along the international border.
The command of the 6th Combined Arms Army makes efforts to consolidate several small bridgeheads on the western bank of the Oskil River into one large operational foothold. Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack individual bridgeheads, effectively blocking their consolidation.
The Pokrovsk direction remains the most active. The occupiers try to restore the intensity of combat operations and continue their offensive.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy has managed to advance but failed to break through to Stepove. Forward enemy units attempt to attack toward Pyatykhatky-Stepove and move toward the road to Shcherbaky. Ukrainian Defense Forces have a prepared defense in this area, and without significant reinforcements, the 58th Combined Arms Army is unable to achieve success in an offensive operation. However, increased enemy activity may indicate an attack in another direction.
On the Huliaypole direction, the enemy’s advance has slowed to a minimum. Forward units of the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies try to move north toward Komar along both banks of the Mokri Yaly River but cannot accomplish their task. Over the past three days, the enemy has attacked north of Dniproenerhiya and attempted to fully occupy the Shevchenko-Burlatske-Pryvilne-Vilne Pole area within the offensive zone of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army.
The main enemy strike direction in the Huliaypole sector has shifted to the operational zone of the 5th Combined Arms Army due to losses suffered by the forward units of the 36th Combined Arms Army. It is expected that the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade will be introduced into the offensive zone of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division to restore the pace of advance, increasing the risk of flanking counterattacks by units of the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group (OSG).
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 156 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted 11 times to breach Ukrainian defenses toward Kindrashivka, Mala Shapkivka, Hlyboke, and Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks near Pishchane, Ivanivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, and toward Petropavlivka.
On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 17 enemy attacks in the directions of Nove, Novomykhailivka, and near Yampolivka, Kopanky, and Nadiya.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy conducted 3 offensive actions near Bilohorivka and toward Verkhnyokamianske and Ivano-Dariivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repel 3 enemy attempts to advance near Minkivka, Stupochky, and toward Oleksandro-Shultyne.
On the Toretsk direction, the occupiers stormed Ukrainian defensive positions 24 times near Dachne, Druzhba, and Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy intensively attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces, conducting 51 offensive actions. Russian occupiers remain most active near Panteleymonivka, Oleksandropil, Zelene Pole, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Novotoretske, Promin, Lysivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, and Andriivka, as well as toward Muravka and Kotlyarivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 attacks toward Shevchenkove and near Vilne Pole, Konstyantynopil, and Rozlyv.
On the Huliaypole direction, the enemy launched airstrikes on Novopil and Huliaypole.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian occupiers advanced 4 times near Shcherbaky and Stepove.
On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy attacks. The enemy carried out 16 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
As a result of the strike on the Engels airbase, three Tu-95MS strategic bombers and two Tu-60 bombers may have been hit (information is being verified). A field stockpile of cruise missiles (between 30 and 50 Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles) was also struck, and the premises of the technical and operational section and dining facilities were damaged.
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a UAV strike on the Marinovka airfield in Volgograd Oblast, Russian Federation.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army operates near Chervona Zoria.
The 92nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 201st Military Base, along with the reconnaissance and assault brigade "Veterans," operates in the Sudzha district. The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet is deployed near Kurylivka.
The 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army operates near Oleksandro-Shultyne.
The 656th Motorized Rifle Regiment operates near Rozlyv.
The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army and the 14th Separate SOF Brigade advance toward Velyka Novosilka. The 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army attacks near Dniproenerhiya and Vesele.
The 64th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army operates near Huliaypole.
The 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army advances toward Zaporizhzhia.
The 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division operates near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, and Shcherbaky. The 108th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division, in coordination with the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, attacks Ukrainian positions near Pyatykhatky and between Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky.
Possible operation situation developments:
The plan for the enemy's spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping through Lyman.
The enemy cannot establish a full-fledged buffer zone on the border of Kursk and Sumy Oblasts, so the simplest option may be an invasion of Sumy Oblast by a grouping of 22,000–27,000 military personnel along the Sumy–Sudzha highway within a 35–40 km-wide zone (stretching from Zhuravka to Myropillya). This territory has already been turned into a buffer zone by Ukrainian Defense Forces, which will greatly complicate enemy actions.
Ukrainian Defense Forces may launch an offensive in the direction of Lyman Pershyi – Horobivka – Tavilzhanka, which, if successful, will lead to either the enemy's rapid retreat from the Dvorichna bridgehead or its encirclement there. Such a development would result in the loss of combat capability of the entire enemy's 6th Combined Arms Army.
On the Lyman direction, in the near future, the command of the 25th Combined Arms Army of the enemy's "Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to accomplish its immediate task by deploying the 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation and attacking the positions of "Khortytsia" OSG along the Kreminna–Zarichne road toward Torske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the encirclement of Chasiv Yar from the south by advancing toward Stupochky will be a priority for the command of the 3rd Combined Arms Army and the 98th Airborne Division of the enemy. To achieve this, the enemy may redeploy additional forces from the 85th or 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 3rd Combined Arms Army to this direction from the southern sector.
The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the "Khortytsia" OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar. After the reaching the Poltavka–Pleshchiivka line, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by an airborne forces group, will attempt a rapid breakthrough from the bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal in the Chasiv Yar area, advancing from the northeast toward Kostyantynivka.
The situation on the Novopavlivka direction may change drastically if the enemy breaks through to the southwest, in the Velykomykhailivka direction, within the operational zone of the enemy's "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. Currently, its forces are attempting to advance toward the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway from the south and cut it off in the Komar–Odradne section. This would significantly facilitate the advance of Russian forces on the Novopavlivka direction within the sector of the 90th Tank Division and the 110th, 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army. To achieve this, the enemy is trying to advance along both the western and eastern banks of the Mokri Yaly River with the forces of the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies, as well as the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades, generally moving in the direction of Velyka Novosilka–Komar.
In the near future, the enemy command may shift the main attack direction of the 90th Tank Division toward the Andriivka area (part of the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment, as well as the 67th and 87th Rifle Regiments). The reinforcement of division units with elements of the 239th or 6th Tank Regiments cannot be ruled out.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 21.03.25
Personnel - almost 900,800 (+1,330);
Tanks – 10,394 (+17);
Armored combat vehicles – 21,589 (+28);
Artillery systems – 24,848 (+101);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,324 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,111 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 41,259 (+165);
Aircraft - 370 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 30,080 (+165);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,121 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Starting in the evening of March 20, Russian forces had attacked Ukraine with 214 Shahed-type strike UAVs and decoy drones. As of 9:30, 114 strike UAVs have been confirmed destroyed. 81 enemy decoys were lost from radar (without negative consequences). As a result of the Russian attack, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, and Kyiv Oblasts were affected.
On the evening of March 20, Russian forces attacked villages in the Zaporizhzhia district with guided aerial bombs. According to the State Emergency Service (SES), a 61-year-old man, three women (aged 50, 54, and 55), and a child were injured. As a result of the shelling, cars and residential buildings covering a total area of 700 square meters caught fire.
Late in the evening on March 20, Russian troops launched a massive drone attack on Odesa. Civilian infrastructure was damaged, large fires broke out, a shopping mall and stores were on fire, and a high-rise building was damaged. Three teenagers were injured.
On March 21, Russian military forces attacked a civilian car with a drone in Bilozirka, Kherson Oblast, resulting in injuries to a 36-year-old man and a 45-year-old woman.
On March 21, 2025, during one hour, the occupiers dropped at least 6 guided aerial bombs on the center of the village of Krasnopillia in Sumy Oblast. As of 18:45, three people were killed, and two others were injured.
On the morning of March 21, the Russian army shelled the village of Kindrashivka in the Kupyansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in a woman being injured.
Russian invaders attacked a motorcycle in Rozhkovychi, Sumy Oblast, with a drone — both the driver and the passenger were injured.
Russian invaders attacked the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with artillery and drones, injuring a 43-year-old man.
The Russian army shelled the single family home area of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, injuring two women.
During the past day, Russians carried out 112 shelling attacks along the border of Sumy Oblast, as a result of which two people were killed, one was injured, and there was also damage. A total of 187 explosions were recorded.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that 4,306 people have been returned from Russian captivity.
The Ukrainian General Staff announced that Russia, in order to discredit Ukraine, shelled the gas measurement station "Sudzha" in Kursk Oblast of the Russian Federation with artillery. Ukrainian Defense Forces were not involved in the attack.