Russia’s war on Ukraine. 21.01.26
Operational situation
On the Northern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces attacked near Oleksiivka, Yunakivka, Sadky, toward Mala Korchakivka, and near Hrabovske and Komarivka.
On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, Russian forces advanced in the southeastern and eastern parts of Vovchansk, and the line of contact shifted further to the southeast. The enemy attempted to advance along the border in Kharkiv Oblast on the northern and southern outskirts of Dekhtyarnе, and attacked near Prylipka, Starytsia, Vovchanski Khutory, Kruhle, Lyman, Vilcha, Nesterne, toward Hrafske and Izbytske.
On the Kupyansk Direction, Russian forces attacked near and inside Kupyansk, toward Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Podoly, Kucherivka, near Stepova Novoselivka and Pishchane, toward Kurylivka, and near Shandryholove, Novoyehorivka, Olhivka, and Tverdokhlibove.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked from Sobolivka.
On the Sloviansk Direction, Russian forces attacked near Novoselivka, Kolodyazi, Zarichne, Dibrova, Ozerne, Dronivka, Platonivka, and Bondarne.
On the Kostyantynivka Direction, Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka, toward Pryvillya, near Predtechyne, Pleshchiivka, Ivanopillya, Shcherbynivka, Kleban-Byk, toward Berestok, near Yablunivka and Stepanivka, toward Illinivka, near Rusyn Yar, and toward Sofiivka.
On the Pokrovsk Direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Novyi Donbas, near Toretske and Zaporizhzhia, advanced to the southeastern outskirts of Hryshyne, attempted to advance north of Pokrovsk and northwest of Udachne, and attacked near and inside Pokrovsk, Bilytske, Rodynske, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Kotlyne, and Molodetske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold certain positions in the northern part of Pokrovsk.
On the Oleksandrivka Direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Novopavlivka, Horikhove, Dachne, Filiya, Verbove, and Krasnohirske.
On the Huliaypole Direction, Russian forces attacked near Huliaypole, Svyatopetrivka, Ternuvate, Dobropillya, Zelene, Yehorivka, and Varvarivka, toward Zaliznychne.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Tsvitkove, Staroukrainka, and Zaliznychne.
On the Orikhiv Direction, Russian forces advanced east of Shcherbaky, attacked near Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Lukyanivske, Novoboykivske, and Novoyakovlivka, toward Richne.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted a UAV strike on the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, on energy facilities in the city of Orel, and a missile strike on the Mychurynska thermal power plant of “GT Energo” in the city of Belgorod.
General conclusion:
On the southern Slobozhansky direction, Russian forces continue attempts to reconnoiter Ukrainian defenses along the international border, including near Sotnytsky Kozachok. The enemy does not evacuate its dead and wounded. The aggressor periodically employs tactics of attacks by large groups simultaneously from different directions without preparation. Losses have no significance in this context. The assault groups of the occupiers are poorly equipped and lack winter camouflage.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces increase the use of ambush-launched drones to attack Ukrainian logistics.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continue constant attempts at infiltration, prepare for assault actions, and try to gain a foothold on the eastern outskirts of Hryshyne, where combat is the heaviest.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces have established a 20–25 km deep kill zone near Kupyansk, significantly limiting Russian forces’ ability to use vehicles and deploy infantry within 1 km of the frontline. The effectiveness of the established system reaches 88%. Ukrainian Defense Forces can significantly reduce the effectiveness of Russian infiltration tactics if they succeed in banning enemy vehicle movement to a depth of up to 50 km.
Russian forces have employed RM-48U target missiles to strike ground targets on the territory of Ukraine. The RM-48U missile is a decommissioned and modified 5V55 or 48N6 surface-to-air missile for the S-300/400 air defense system. The enemy’s stockpile of such missiles is estimated at more than 400 missiles.
Change in the line of contact (LoC), directions of attacks and counterattacks:
There were 110 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Southern Slobozhansky Direction, 11 enemy attacks were repelled in the area of Vovchansk and toward Izbytske, Hrafske, Kruhle, Nesterne, and Chuhunivka.
On the Kupyansk Direction, three enemy attacks occurred. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions toward Pishchane and Petropavlivka.
On the Sloviansk Direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks toward Tverdokhlibove, Stavky, Dibrova, and Olhivka in the area of Dronivka.
On the Kostyantynivka Direction, the enemy carried out 15 attacks in the areas of Predtechyne, Ivanopillya, Pleshchiivka, and Shcherbynivka, and toward Bondarne, Illinivka, Stepanivka, Berestok, Novopavlivka, and Sofiivka.
On the Pokrovsk Direction, 36 enemy assault actions were stopped in the areas of Rodynske, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, Filiya, and Dachne, toward Novopavlivka.
On the Oleksandrivka Direction, the enemy carried out an attack toward Nove Zaporizhzhia.
On the Huliaypole Direction, Defense Forces repelled nine Russian attacks in the area of Huliaypole and toward Dobropillya and Zelene.
On the Orikhiv direction, two combat engagements occurred in the areas of Stepnohirsk and Prymorske.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 204th Separate SOF Regiment strikes Ukrainian forces in Lisne.
The 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army operates on the Kharkiv direction.
Artillery of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army, including the division’s 121st Motorized Rifle Regiment, operates in Kupyansk and around it. The 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army operates near Pishchane.
The 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army operates west of Siversk and strikes Ukrainian transport vehicles moving toward Sloviansk. The 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army operates near Siversk and Zakitne.
The 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army operates in Ivanopillya, its 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiment operates in Kostyantynivka, and the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army and the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army strike Ukrainian forces in Kostyantynivka. Units of the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies strike Ukrainian forces near Kindrativka. The 57th Separate SOF Company of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Novopavlivka, Torske, and Pavlivka, while the army’s 238th Artillery Brigade operates near Novohryhorivka.
The 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Dobropillya, the 56th Separate SOF Battalion of the 51st Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian forces near Bilytske, and units of the “Rubikon” Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies and the 24th Separate SOF Brigade operate on the Pokrovsk direction.
The 14th Separate SOF Brigade, the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division, and the 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army strike Ukrainian positions in the east of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, while aviation of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army conducts air strikes on Ukrainian positions near Verkhnya Tersa and Vozdvyzhivka.
The 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division operates near Stepnohirsk, and the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions near Novodanylivka.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Southern Slobozhanske Direction, the enemy will continue its attempts to capture Vovchansk with the forces of a tactical grouping (elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 11th and the 44th Army Corps). These actions will slow the enemy’s advance along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets to Bilyi Kolodyaz, Verkhnya Pysarivka and Buhayivka.
On the Kupyansk Direction, the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping will concentrate its efforts on seizing the eastern part of Kupyansk, attacking from the north, will attempt to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ 16th Army Corps south of the Kucherivka–Petropavlivka line, advancing toward Petropavlivka along the road from Vilshana and attacking the northeastern part of the city from the direction of Lyman Pershyi.
On the Sloviansk Direction, the enemy’s 20th Combined Arms Army will attempt to seize the Yarova–Novoselivka–Drobysheve–Pryshyb area and block the Lyman–Izium logistics route along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Troops of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies will advance north and east of Lyman with the aim of isolating the defense area of the 3rd Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces around the city from the north and northwest in order to reach the Siverskyi Donets River south of the city in the Raihorodok–Zakytne sector. By maintaining a bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets River, the 3rd Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces will make it much more difficult for the enemy to conduct offensive actions towards Sloviansk from this direction. The 3rd Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through from the Dronivka–Siversk line to the Zakytne–Riznykivka–Kalenyky–Kryva Luka area, which will facilitate an offensive on Lyman by the troops of the 25th Combined Arms Army. Ukrainian Defense Forces will seek opportunities to slow the enemy’s advance along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets in the direction of Raihorodok and Sloviansk
On the Kostyantynivka Direction, the operational objective of Russian forces remains the destruction of the 9th and 10th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces, which oppose the enemy “Yug (South)” and “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Groupings, the capture of the Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka agglomeration, and an advance from the south and southeast to the near approaches to Kramatorsk. This objective is being pursued using a sequential, phased envelopment strategy for the agglomeration, beginning with the occupation of Kostyantynivka as the first phase, followed by the capture of Druzhkivka as the second phase. In the near term, Tactical Group “Dzerzhynsk” will attempt to break through to the Stepanivka–Berestok line and subsequently to the Dovha Balka–Illinivka line and will attempt to seize the entire western part of Kostyantynivka along the western bank of the Kryvyi Torets River. Offensive actions by the Tactical Group are expected on the Yablunivka–Stepanivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove–Berestok, and Pleshchiivka–Berestok Directions.
Tactical Group “Bakhmut” will consolidate in the southeastern part of Kostyantynivka and will attempt to break through to the eastern part of the city. Subsequently, the Tactical Group will attempt to advance to the northern and northwestern districts of Kostyantynivka and break through to the Izhevka–Virolyubivka line along the eastern bank of the Kryvyi Torets River. The Tactical Group will continue its offensive on the Oleksandro-Shultyne–Kostyantynivka and Predtechyne–Kostyantynivka Directions. A sharp increase in combat activity by the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Combined Arms Army is also expected in the Chasiv Yar area and north of it on the Kalynivka–Virolyubivka Direction simultaneously with the breakthrough of Tactical Group “Bakhmut” units to the eastern part of Kostyantynivka. The likely direction of further advance is toward Kurtivka and Druzhkivka.
The Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad defense area of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces of Ukrainian Defense Forces will be seized by the enemy by the end of January 2026. By capturing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the enemy gains the chance to launch an offensive toward Dobropillya and potentially break through rapidly, with the 2nd Combined Arms Army advancing from Pokrovsk and the 51st Combined Arms Army moving from the bridgehead on the Kazennyi Torets River. The command of the enemy “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping will not be able to bypass/envelop the defense area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the flanks, as the Defense Forces firmly hold the Vilne – Novyi Donbas line, leaving only a frontal offensive on Dobropillya, which will entail enormous losses.
On the Oleksandrivka and Huliaypole Directions, the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will advance on the widest possible front, attempting to maximally stretch the forces of Ukrainian Defense Forces and their reserves, and through active offensive actions by the 36th Combined Arms Army ensure, on the main strike direction toward Huliaypole, a maximum concentration of its own forces and assets in the zone of the 5th Combined Arms Army
The enemy will attempt to develop the offensive of the 5th Combined Arms Army in the general direction of Varvarivka–Verkhnya Tersa–Omelnyk. Considering that in the offensive zone of the 58th Combined Arms Army the enemy will advance northward along the Dnipro, has already reached the delta of the Konka River in the Prymorske area and has bypassed Stepnohirsk from the west and east, it will attempt to reach the defense line of the 17th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces along the Konka River on the Malokaterynivka–Komyshuvakha sector. The aggressor will attempt to cut the logistics of the 17th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in Orikhiv and, with the troops of the 5th Combined Arms Army, the main forces of the 76th Air Assault Division and the 35th Combined Arms Army, break through to the near approaches to the city from the northeast, from the area north of Huliaypole, after which it will assault Orikhiv. The success of this plan directly depends on the ability of Ukrainian Defense Forces to stabilize the situation in Huliaypole.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 21.01.26
Personnel - almost 1,229 740 (+1,170);
Tanks – 11,587 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles ‒ 23,938 (+10);
Artillery systems – 36,463 (+70);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,621 (+3);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,279 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 75,238 (+171);
Aircraft - 434 (0);
Helicopters – 347 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 112,159 (+1,019);
Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 4,190 (+27);
Boats/ships – 30 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
From the evening of 20 January, Russian occupiers attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 97 UAVs of various types. According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of 08:30 air defense forces shot down or suppressed 84 UAVs, while missile impact and 13 UAV impacts were recorded at 11 locations. The hostile attack continued, with several means of attack remaining in the airspace.
On the night of 21 January, as a result of Russian attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, two people were killed and one more person was wounded. According to the head of the Oblast Military Administration, Oleksandr Hanzha, the enemy attacked the Synelnykove District with UAVs, damaging three private houses. In addition, a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih damaged nine private houses and five apartment buildings, an administrative building, and vehicles.
On the night of 21 January, as a result of a massive UAV attack on the south of Odesa Oblast, one person was injured and destruction of civilian infrastructure was recorded. According to the head of the Oblast Military Administration, Oleh Kiper, a warehouse building with furniture was destroyed in Odesa District, and private residential buildings and industrial facilities were damaged. Fires broke out at the impact sites and were extinguished.
At about 22:00 on 20 January, Russian forces attacked the Dniprovskyi District of Kherson with UAVs, as a result of which a man was wounded.
At noon on 21 January, Russian forces shelled the Dniprovskyi District of Kherson, and a woman was killed as a result of the strike.
Over the past 10 days, Russian forces dropped 768 guided and high-explosive aerial bombs on territory of Donetsk Oblast controlled by Ukraine. According to the head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, Vadym Filashkin, the strikes destroyed almost all municipal and private infrastructure facilities that came under fire.
In Kyiv, electricity supply was restored to all critical infrastructure facilities after the hostile attack on the night of 20 January. Despite this, the capital’s energy system remains in a deep emergency mode.
As of 21 January, the situation in Kyiv remains very difficult, with emergency outages continuing outside schedules. According to Yasno CEO Serhii Kovalenko, in the Dniprovskyi and Desnianskyi Districts of the capital more than 40,000 customers remain without electricity after the latest shelling. In Dnipro, up to 4.5 outage queues are applied simultaneously, and power interruptions may exceed 7 hours due to significant damage and network load.
On the night of 21–22 January, heat supply will begin to be restored to 3,260 buildings in Kyiv that were left without heating twice due to shelling on 9 and 20 January. According to Mayor Vitalii Klitschko, the process of restoring heat supply to homes will take approximately two days. At the same time, water supply has already been fully restored for all consumers in the capital.
Over the course of a day, specialists of the regional energy company Zaporizhzhiaoblenergo restored electricity supply to 58,000 consumers who were de-energized due to the enemy attacks.
In the shelled city of Druzhkivka in Donetsk Oblast, where the situation is currently the most difficult, about 19,000 civilians remain, including 200 children. In the city of Kostiantynivka, there are currently about 2,000 civilians.
The concept of establishing and maintaining bridgeheads across river barriers remains a critical element in modern warfare. The operational situation you've outlined demonstrates how bridgeheads on multiple directions can serve as staging areas for deeper advances into enemy territory. The Ukrainian counterattack from Sobolivka shows the vulnerability of extended bridgeheads when logistics lines become stretched. Historically, bridgeheads have often been the decisive factor in determining the success or failure of offensive operations - their defense requires significant resource allocation that can strain an attacker's operational depth.