Russia's war on Ukraine. 20.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, there were 8 combat clashes near Vovchansk and Starytsya.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 16 attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Kucherivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 11 times near Novomykhailivka, Hrekivka, Terny, and Serebrianka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 3 times in the areas of Andriivka, Predtechyne, and Stupochky. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 4 attacks near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 27 assaults in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, and Selydove, where the invaders, supported by aviation, tried to displace the defense forces from their positions. The largest concentration of enemy attacks was near Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 60 attacks near Zoryane, Novodmytrivka, Zhelanne Druhe, Hirnyk, Heorhiivka, Maksymilianivka, Antonivka, and Katerynivka, where the enemy tried to break through the Ukrainian defense. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 6 assaults near Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attempted to advance twice near Mala Tokmachka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, there were 6 combat engagements with the enemy in the island zone of the Dnipro River delta. The enemy failed.
On the Siversk and Huliaypole directions, the situation has not changed significantly. No signs of enemy offensive groupings were detected on the Volyn and Polissya directions. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue operations in Kursk Oblast. Along the border with the Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy maintains a military presence, shells Ukrainian towns and villages from Russian territory, conducts sabotage and reconnaissance activities, and increases the density of mine-explosive barriers along Ukraine's state border.
General conclusion:
The enemy's advance to the Oskil River near Kruhlyakivka marks the beginning of the creation of a Russian bridgehead to develop an offensive against the Ukrainian salient to the north between Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi and Hlushkivka, as well as a broader Ukrainian salient to the south of Kruhlyakivka.
Unfavorable weather conditions on the Siversk direction prevent both Russian and Ukrainian forces from fully utilizing UAVs.
Russian troops are struggling to move within Chasiv Yar due to the actions of Ukrainian FPV drone units.
Russian motorized rifle brigades operating near Toretsk use limited armored vehicles due to their outdated state. These brigades are less equipped than airborne units. The enemy attacks in small groups under the cover of artillery, mortars, and UAVs, attempting to secure positions and hide in the buildings of Toretsk, which has been nearly destroyed by Russian strikes.
The onset of mud due to seasonal rain is prompting Russian military command to intensify assaults in the western part of Donetsk Oblast.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 164 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces advanced west of Russkaya Konopelka, with the 106th Airborne Division engaging in battles for Liubimovka. The enemy is attempting to retake Leonidovo, advance towards Malaya Loknia and Viktorovka, and partially encircle Plekhovo. They are repelling the Ukrainian Defense Forces' attacks near Volfino and Tetkino.
“Siversk” OTG launched counterattacks near Leonidovo, Liubimovka, and Zelionyi Put.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued unsuccessful advances near Vovchansk and Starytsya.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced along Luhova Street in the southwestern part of Kruhlyakivka, reached the Oskil River, and moved into Kolisnykivka, continuing offensive actions near Holubivka, Synkivka, Kucherivka, Lozova, Pishchane, Stepanivka, Novoosynove, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Vyshneve. Ukrainian defense forces advanced southeast of Kupiansk and recaptured previously lost positions on Osinnya Street in the northern part of Kruhlyakivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy is attempting to advance towards Torske and has attacked near Novomykhailivka, Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, Terny, and Serebrianka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, attacking towards Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Andriivka. The 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division attempted to advance in the "Zhovtnevy" neighborhood.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the southern outskirts of Shcherbynivka, attempted to capture Nelipivka, and conducted offensive operations near Dyliivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and in and around Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces reached the southern outskirts of Vozdvyzhenka, attempted to capture Zhelanne Druhe, advanced 0.5 km in Lysivka, 1.2 km west of the “Korochenko” mine, and 1 km west of the “No. 2 Novohrodivska” mine. They continued their offensive near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Novoukrainka, Novodmytrivka, Zhelanne Druhe, Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, Kurakhivka, Selydove, and Mykhailivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck Russian troops on the northern outskirts of Zoryane and southeast and northeast of Zoryane.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced on the western outskirts of Zolota Nyva, conducted offensives near Antonivka, Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, and Bohoyavlenka, and are engaged in battles for Katerynivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continued their assault but were unsuccessful in advancing from Levadne and Pryiutne towards Novodaryivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Mala Tokmachka and towards Novodanylivka but failed to make any advances.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces continued their offensive on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast and on islands in the Dnipro River delta southwest of Kherson, but did not achieve any success. The enemy struck a bridge over the Konka River on the M14 highway (Kherson–Mykolaiv) north of Oleshky.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 0 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 28 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The "Akhmat-Russia" 1434th Motorized Rifle Regiment of Territorial Defense (formerly the personal security battalion of R. Kadyrov "Sever") is engaged in combat operations in the Glushkovo district.
Units of the 17th Artillery Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army are active near Kurdyumivka, while reconnaissance-assault brigade units "Sever-V" attack in the direction of Chasiv Yar.
Northwest of Toretsk, the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps is advancing towards Pleshchiivka.
The 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army is involved in combat near Hostre. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army is advancing in southern Donetsk.
The "Storm-Z" unit of the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps operates near Kostyantynivka and Katerynivka. The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army is active near the “Pivdennodonbaska No. 3” mine in the western part of Vodyane. The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army operates north of Vuhledar.
Possible operation situation developments:
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.
The enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping's 3rd Combined Arms Army will attempt to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Siversk salient and capture Chasiv Yar, in order to establish the conditions for further advances towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.
The enemy's 67th Motorized Rifle Division, part of the 44th Army Corps, is expected to begin assault operations on the Kharkiv direction soon, using assault companies from the 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment, supported by armored groups from the 11th Separate Tank Brigade and the 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division.
The consolidation of the enemy's tactical bridgeheads across the Chornyi Zherebets River will signal an increased intensity of actions by the forward units of the 25th Combined Arms Army in the directions of Zarichne, Yampolivka, and Torske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 20.10.24
Personnel - almost 678,520 (+1,340);
Tanks 9,047 (+12);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,111 (+39);
Artillery systems – 19,565 (+17);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,232 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 978 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,987 (+41);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 17,287 (+57);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,624 (+1)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
By the morning of October 20, Ukrainian air defense forces confirmed the downing of 31 enemy UAVs as a result of the night air battle. Another 13 Russian drones were lost at specific locations. In total, 51 aerial targets were detected and tracked: 49 enemy drones and two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles.
On the night of October 20, Ukrainian Defense Forces neutralized about a dozen strike drones launched by Russian forces at the city of Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast.
In Kharkiv, Russian occupiers hit the single family home sector in the Novobavarsky district with a KAB airstrike. Preliminary information indicates that several private houses were affected, but no casualties were reported.
In the early morning of October 20, the enemy launched an airstrike on the Romny community in Sumy Oblast, damaging critical infrastructure. Power was cut off in 130 towns and villages.
On October 20, 2024, starting at 8:30 AM and for four hours, the enemy shelled civilian infrastructure in the Shalyginska community of Shostka district in Sumy region. A 62-year-old man was killed on his property, and local residents’ homes were damaged.
Late on Saturday evening, Russian forces launched two ballistic strikes on Kryvyi Rih. 17 people were injured, with 8 hospitalized in moderate condition. Fifteen homes, three educational institutions, three administrative buildings (district executive committee, social services, and pension fund), seven business objects, a hotel, three fire engines, and 20 cars were damaged.
Over the past day, invaders carried out 247 strikes on nine towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. In the regional capital, 10 people were injured.
As a result of Russian shelling, over 62,000 consumers in five regions of Ukraine remain without electricity.
On October 18, during a prisoner exchange, Russia did not return the body of journalist Viktoriya Roshchyna, who died in Russian captivity. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War suspects that Russia is trying to conceal evidence of a crime.