Russia's war on Ukraine. 20.03.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces attacked near Gogolevka, Oleshnia, Guevo, Hornal in Kursk Oblast, and Basivka in Sumy Oblast. The enemy repells attacks by Ukrainian Defense Forces near Demydivka and Prilesie.
Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced south and southwest of Demydivka and southwest of Grafovka in Belgorod Oblast, holding positions in wooded areas along the state border within Sumy and Belgorod Oblasts.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Kamyanka, along the Oskil River near Dvorichna, towards Kindrashivka and Tyshynivka, and attacked near Mala Shapkivka, Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, as well as near Zahryzove and Nadiia.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Nadiia and Novoyehorivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance northwest of Balka Zhuravka and attacked near Yampolivka, towards Nove and Zelena Dolyna.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance west of Bilohorivka and attacked Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers advanced along M. Ulyanova Street in Chasiv Yar, attempted to advance west of the refractory materials plant in the city center, and attacked near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, towards Markove, near Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and towards Predtechyne.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Druzhba, north of Toretsk, and along Komarova Street in the city itself. They attempted to advance along Volynska and Kvitkova Streets and attacked near Krymske.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in central Lysivka, towards the outskirts of Dachenske, counterattacked near Pishchane, and held positions on the outskirts of Shevchenkove.
Russian forces advanced to the southeastern outskirts of Lysivka and the southern part of Pishchane, attempted to push Ukrainian forces out of Shevchenkove, and continued offensives near Zelene Pole, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Preobrazhenka, Kotlyarivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Uspenivka, Novoukrainka, Bohdanivka, Yasynove, and Troitske.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked and secured positions southwest of Konstyantynopil along the H15 highway from Kurakhove to Zaporizhzhia, pushing Russian forces from positions northwest of Andriivka.
Russian forces advanced west of Slovyanka along a ravine west of the T0515 highway from Konstyantynopil to Pokrovsk and continued offensives near Konstyantynopil, Andriivka, and Oleksiivka.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces advanced southwest of Pryvilne, attempted to advance northwest of Rozdolne and towards Rozlyv, engaged in battles for Shevchenko, and continued offensives towards Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, and Novopil.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Dniproenerhiya, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Vesele, and Fedorivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced near Stepove, Lobkove, northeast of Nesteryanka, near Novodanylivka, and Mala Tokmachka, and attacked near Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky.
General conclusion:
The enemy cannot establish a full-fledged buffer zone on the border of Kursk and Sumy Oblasts, so the simplest option may be an invasion of Sumy Oblast by a grouping of 22,000–27,000 military personnel along the Sumy–Sudzha highway within a 35–40 km-wide zone (stretching from Zhuravka to Myropillya). This territory has already been turned into a buffer zone by Ukrainian Defense Forces, which will greatly complicate enemy actions.
The Defense Forces have advanced in Belgorod Oblast.
Near Kupyansk, on the Dvorichna bridgehead on the Oskil River, units of the 6th Combined Arms Army are at risk of encirclement. Ukrainian Defense Forces have received reinforcements and have begun to compress the enemy bridgehead while intensifying attacks on the eastern bank. At the same time, the 6th Combined Arms Army lacks the resources to advance on one bank while defending the other.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces need several days to weeks to reach staging areas for an attack from the rear due to Ukrainian strikes.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy’s offensive toward Kostyantynivka has run into Ukrainian reserves, which have not only reinforced the defense but also launched active counterattacks. As a result, the already occupied Toretsk has partially turned into a gray zone, and the 8th Combined Arms Army, redeployed here from the Novopavlivka direction for an offensive on Kostyantynivka, is now engaged in defensive battles since the forces of the 51st Combined Arms Army have largely lost combat capability.
The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations expected, after the battles in Kursk Oblast, to receive reinforcements with an overall combat potential of up to four divisions, which could secure the rear and support the offensive of the 6th Combined Arms Army near Kupyansk, reinforce the grouping on the Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk directions, and, in turn, allow the enemy to regain strategic initiative.
The promising offensive sector Vozdvyzhenka–Chasiv Yar has turned into a problematic deadlock. The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping is gradually shifting efforts to the neighboring Siversk direction, where in the past two weeks, a large amount of artillery and ammunition has been transferred. Units of the 51st Combined Arms Army, withdrawn from Toretsk for reformation, are also being relocated there. However, the enemy will not be able to achieve rapid advances without receiving combat-ready reinforcements.
The operational situation on the Pokrovsk direction allows Ukrainian Defense Forces, by bringing up reserves, to gradually push the enemy away from Pokrovsk. If the situation remains unchanged, by May–June, the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Grouping (OSG) will reach the Selydove area, which is the logistics hub for the enemy’s "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping. Strikes on its elements are already being carried out with high intensity. The balance of forces and resources indicates that the once-largest "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping has gradually diminished in battle and is now equal to the "Kursk" Operational Grouping, while "Khortytsia" OSG continues to build up reserves and increase strength.
Since early March, the situation on the Huliaypole direction has begun to change. The advance of the enemy’s "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping has slowed, especially towards Komar, while its losses are increasing. Within a month, the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping will be unable to achieve its operational objectives, and if the intensity of combat does not decrease but instead increases, it will completely lose its offensive potential, which cannot be compensated for by forces on adjacent sectors.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 127 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy assaulted Ukrainian positions near Vovchansk and Dvorichna. Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled five enemy attempts to advance.
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted six offensive actions near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders stormed the Defense Forces’ positions 13 times near Yampolivka and towards Nove, Novomykhailivka, and Zelena Dolyna.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked near Verkhnyokamianske but was repelled.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy attacked near Verkhnyokamianske but was repelled.
On the Toretsk direction, 16 battles took place. The enemy stormed Ukrainian positions near Krymske, Toretsk, Dachne, and Dyliivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy carried out 44 attacks near Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Kotlyne, Zvirove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Oleksiivka, Valentynivka, Andriivka, and towards Serhiivka. Thirty-nine assaults were repelled. Airstrikes targeted Zoria, Nova Poltavka, Hrodivka, and Pokrovsk.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks near Pryvilne and Konstyantynopil.
On the Huliaypole direction, the enemy unsuccessfully attempted to advance three times towards Novopil. Russian aviation struck near Velykomykhailivka and Zelene Pole.
On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled seven attacks near Stepove and towards Lobkove and Shcherbaky. The enemy conducted airstrikes near Yasna Polyana, Blakytne, and Novoivanivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy did not conduct offensive actions but launched airstrikes near Burhunka and Virivka.
On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 18 enemy assaults. The enemy also carried out 18 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
UAVs of Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked several strategic targets in Saratov, Voronezh, Belgorod, Rostov, Kursk, and Lipetsk Oblasts, as well as in the occupied Crimea. A Russian state reserve fuel storage base and the "Kristall" plant near Engels were hit.
On March 19, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine struck elements of the enemy's air defense system in Crimea: two 48Ya6-K1 "Podlet" mobile radar stations, two 1L125 "Nebo-SV" long-range radars, three 39N6 "Kasta-2E2" mobile radars, one 9S19M "Imbir" long-range radar, one "Nebo-SVU" early warning radar, one "Nebo-M" radar, one 59N6E "Protivnik-GE" radar, one "Mys-M1E" coastal radar, one 19Zh6 ST-68U low-altitude target detection radar, one 39N6 "Kasta-2E2D" radar, and fire installations of the S-300VM surface-to-air missile system. This equipment likely belongs to the 31st Air Defense Division of the 4th Air and Air Defense Army of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Units of the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet repel Ukrainian attacks near Demydivka. The main forces of the brigade operate near Dniproenerhiya on the Huliaypole direction.
The 900th Regiment of the 116th Separate Brigade of Operational Purpose of the Russian National Guard operates on the Kharkiv direction.
The 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army and the 16th Separate SOF Brigade operate towards Borova.
The 215th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 98th Airborne Division is active near Chasiv Yar, while the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps attacks in the direction of Kostyantynivka.
The 14th Separate SOF Brigade operates near Bahatyr.
The 19th Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Regiment of the 29th Combined Arms Army operates towards Shakhtarsk.
Possible operation situation developments:
The plan for the enemy's spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping through Lyman.
Ukrainian Defense Forces may launch an offensive in the direction of Lyman Pershyi – Horobivka – Tavilzhanka, which, if successful, will lead to either the enemy's rapid retreat from the Dvorichna bridgehead or its encirclement there. Such a development would result in the loss of combat capability of the entire enemy's 6th Combined Arms Army.
On the Lyman direction, in the near future, the command of the 25th Combined Arms Army of the enemy's "Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to accomplish its immediate task by deploying the 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation and attacking the positions of "Khortytsia" OSG along the Kreminna–Zarichne road toward Torske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the encirclement of Chasiv Yar from the south by advancing toward Stupochky will be a priority for the command of the 3rd Combined Arms Army and the 98th Airborne Division of the enemy. To achieve this, the enemy may redeploy additional forces from the 85th or 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 3rd Combined Arms Army to this direction from the southern sector.
The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the "Khortytsia" OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar. After the reaching the Poltavka–Pleshchiivka line, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by an airborne forces group, will attempt a rapid breakthrough from the bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal in the Chasiv Yar area, advancing from the northeast toward Kostyantynivka.
The situation on the Novopavlivka direction may change drastically if the enemy breaks through to the southwest, in the Velykomykhailivka direction, within the operational zone of the enemy's "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. Currently, its forces are attempting to advance toward the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway from the south and cut it off in the Komar–Odradne section. This would significantly facilitate the advance of Russian forces on the Novopavlivka direction within the sector of the 90th Tank Division and the 110th, 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army. To achieve this, the enemy is trying to advance along both the western and eastern banks of the Mokri Yaly River with the forces of the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies, as well as the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades, generally moving in the direction of Velyka Novosilka–Komar.
In the near future, the enemy command may shift the main attack direction of the 90th Tank Division toward the Andriivka area (part of the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment, as well as the 67th and 87th Rifle Regiments). The reinforcement of division units with elements of the 239th or 6th Tank Regiments cannot be ruled out.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 20.03.25
Personnel - almost 899,470 (+1,400);
Tanks – 10,377 (+13);
Armored combat vehicles – 21,561 (+38);
Artillery systems – 24,747 (+43);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,322 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,110 (+3);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 41,094 (+91);
Aircraft - 370 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 29,895 (+179);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,121 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of March 20, Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with 171 Shahed-type strike UAVs and various types of decoy drones. As of 8:30 AM, air defense had shot down 75 strike UAVs, while 63 enemy decoy drones were lost from radar (with no negative consequences). As a result of the Russian attack, Kirovohrad, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts were affected.
On the evening of March 19, the Russian army carried out its most massive strike on Kirovohrad Oblast, launching attack drones at residential areas of Kropyvnytskyi. More than 20 drones attacked the city. As a result, 10 people, including four children, were injured. In Kirovohrad Oblast, "Ukrzaliznytsia" infrastructure was damaged, causing changes in train routes and delays.
On March 20, Russian forces dropped six guided bombs on the Krasnopillia community in Sumy Oblast, killing one local resident and injuring another. The occupiers damaged apartment buildings, private houses, and a shopping center. Around 3:20 PM on March 20, Russian occupation forces carried out an airstrike on a residential building in the settlement of Krasnopillia in Sumy Oblast, killing two civilians.
In Kherson, a 61-year-old local resident was wounded as a result of Russian shelling. In Zelenivka, Kherson Oblast, an enemy drone attacked a house. The 85-year-old owner miraculously survived.
In Kupyansk, Russian airstrikes killed two civilians and injured four. The city has no electricity or water.
16% of Ukrainians have friends or acquaintances who have been or are currently held in civilian captivity by Russian occupiers. Such acquaintances are more common among internally displaced persons, according to a survey on the perception of civilian captivity conducted by the "Rating" sociological group from February 22 to 24.
Results of a survey conducted by the Razumkov Center's sociological service from February 28 to March 6:
A majority of Ukrainians (78%) do not agree to the complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces from the four temporarily occupied oblasts, as demanded by Russian ruler Vladimir Putin. Only 8% of respondents (6% in the Western and Central regions, 10% in the Eastern region, and 14% in the Southern region) would agree to a full withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
82% do not agree to the status of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as well as Crimea and Sevastopol, being recognized as Russian regions in international treaties.
78% of Ukrainians oppose lifting Western sanctions on Russia, while only 7% agree to their removal.
56% versus 22% of respondents do not agree that Ukraine should enshrine a neutral, non-aligned, and non-nuclear status in the Constitution for the sake of ending the war.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed a decree requiring Ukrainian citizens who "do not have legal grounds to stay in the Russian Federation" to leave by September 10 or "regularize their legal status." Ukrainian citizens will be required to provide biometric data, undergo a medical examination (including drug tests), pass a Russian language and history exam, and settle any outstanding debts. Foreign nationals can stay in Russia for no more than 90 days, after which they may be detained and forcibly deported. The decree also concerns residents of the occupied Ukrainian territories.