Russia's war on Ukraine. 19.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted offensive actions 4 times in the area of Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the number of enemy attacks reached 23. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults in the areas of Holubivka, Synkivka, Novoosynove, Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, Kolisnykivka, Vyshneve, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 14 enemy attacks, with the main efforts of the invaders concentrated in the areas of Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, Terny, Makiivka, and Torske. On the Kramatorsk direction, 3 Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, and Stupochky were stopped by Ukrainian soldiers. On the Toretsk direction, with the support of bomber aviation, the enemy attacked seven times in the Toretsk and Dyliivka areas.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 35 attacks. The enemy attempted to advance near Romanivka, Selydove, Promin, and Mykhailivka. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to contain the occupiers on the Kurakhove direction. In the areas of Zhelanne Druhe, Novodmytrivka, Hirnyk, Novoselydivka, Kurakhivka, Heorhiivka, Antonivka, Dalnie, Katerynivka, and Kostyantynivka, the occupiers tried to breach Ukrainian defensive lines 55 times. On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 10 enemy attacks in the areas of Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka. On the Orikhiv direction, occupation forces attempted one assault on Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions near Novodanylivka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy made 6 futile attempts to capture positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces.
The operational situation on the Volyn and Polissya directions remains unchanged. No signs of enemy offensive group formations have been detected.
On the border with Chernihiv Oblast, the enemy maintains a military presence, conducts reconnaissance, and carries out artillery shelling.
Ukrainian Defense Forces continue operations on the Kursk direction.
General conclusion:
On the Kharkiv direction, instances of the enemy's extensive use of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells produced by North Korea have been recorded. Poor quality of the ammunition is noted.
Rainy weather is complicating combat operations near Kreminna.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the occupiers are concentrating forces and advancing on Selydove from the direction of Marynivka and Mykhailivka.
Russian forces conduct aerial reconnaissance and prepare to assault islands in the Dnipro River delta.
Seven ships from the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Navy transported approximately 1,500 Special Operations Forces servicemen from North Korea's Korean People's Army from Chongjin, Hamhung, and Musudan, North Korea, to Vladivostok, Russia, between October 8 and 13. North Korean soldiers are currently stationed in Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk, including at the Sergeevka training ground of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army. They have received Russian uniforms, weapons, and cover documentation indicating that the North Koreans are residents of the Sakha and Buryatia republics. In total, almost 11,000 North Korean servicemen are undergoing training in eastern Russia and will be ready to fight in Ukraine by November 1. The deployment of up to 2,600 servicemen is expected in Kursk Oblast.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 202 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet attacked west of Malaya Loknia. The enemy is attempting to encircle the Ukrainian Defense Forces units near Liubimovka and Tovstyi Lu. Russian forces attack and try to advance near Zelenyi Put, Darine, Kremiannoe, in Olgovka, Cherkasskoe Porechie, Mykhailovka, Martynovka, near Malaya Loknia, Agronom, Plekhovo, and Fanaseevka. Battles continued near Novyi Put.
"Siversk" OTG units withdraw some of their units from Zelenyi Put and Plekhovo.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued the assault near Vovchansk and Starytsia but failed to advance.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced in the center and northern outskirts of Kruhlyakivka, near Vyshneve, and continued offensive actions in the areas of Holubivka, Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Novoosynove, Pishchane, Vyshneve, Nadiia, Hrekivka, and Druzhkivka, towards Katerynivka and Novomykhailivka.
The Ukrainian resistance movement eliminated Colonel Dmytro Pervukh, the commander of the 273rd Command and Reconnaissance Center of the 25th Army, in central Luhansk.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy advanced into the wooded area west of Dibrova. Units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army attempt to break through near Nevske and Novosadove. The enemy attacked near Novosadove, Nevske, Makiivka, Terny, Torske, Serebrianka, Bilohorivka, and Kreminna.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces advanced north of Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, advanced southeast of the city and northwest of Kalynivka, and attacked in the area of Hryhorivka, Minkivka, Ivanivske, and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Dyliivka, Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, Romanivka, Sukha Balka, Nelipivka, but failed to advance.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions, advancing along the railway line south of Selydove to cut off the Selydove-Kurakhove highway. They also advanced northwest and south of Tsukuryne and continued offensive actions near Promin, Novotoretske, Sukhy Yar, Lysivka, Selydove, Mykhailivka, Novoselydivka, Novodmytrivka, Izmailivka, Hirnyk, Zhelanne Druhe, Zoryane, and towards Vyshneve.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced in the central and western parts of Maksymilianivka and south of the village, trying to reach the outskirts of Kurakhove. They continued offensive actions in the area of Kurakhove, Hostre, Heorhiivka, and Dalnie.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced 1 km near Katerynivka, north of Pryiutne, and continued assaults near Antonivka, Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, Katerynivka, Bohoyavlenka, Vuhledar, and Levadne.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces continued attacks towards Novodanylivka and Novoandriivka.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 254th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 59th Tank Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army operate near Nevske.
The 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army is active near Maksymilianivka.
The 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division is engaged in combat operations in Kursk Oblast, while the 114th, 394th Motorized Rifle Regiments, and the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division operate in Donbas.
Possible operation situation developments:
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.
The enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping's 3rd Combined Arms Army will attempt to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Siversk salient and capture Chasiv Yar, in order to establish the conditions for further advances towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.
The enemy's 67th Motorized Rifle Division, part of the 44th Army Corps, is expected to begin assault operations on the Kharkiv direction soon, using assault companies from the 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment, supported by armored groups from the 11th Separate Tank Brigade and the 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division.
The consolidation of the enemy's tactical bridgeheads across the Chornyi Zherebets River will signal an increased intensity of actions by the forward units of the 25th Combined Arms Army in the directions of Zarichne, Yampolivka, and Torske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 19.10.24
Personnel - almost 677,180 (+1,380);
Tanks 9,035 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,072 (+19);
Artillery systems – 19,548 (+15);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,232 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 978 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,946 (+38);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 17,230 (+78);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,623 (+3)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War conducted the 58th exchange of prisoners of war, bringing home 95 more defenders of Ukraine. A notable aspect of this exchange was the return of many Ukrainians who had been sentenced by Russian courts to long prison terms (28 people) and even life sentences (20 defenders). Many of those released suffer from serious illnesses, the consequences of severe injuries, and significant weight loss due to torture and insufficient nutrition. In total, 3,767 people have been freed from Russian captivity as a result of exchanges.
On the night and morning of October 19, Russian occupiers launched 98 drones and six guided Kh-59/69 aviation missiles at Ukraine. Ukrainian defenders shot down 42 drones and four guided missiles. Another 46 Russian drones were lost from radar detection.
On the night of October 19, Russian forces launched an airstrike on the Shostka community in Sumy Oblast, using KAB bombs and "Shahed" drones, resulting in infrastructure damage, seven civilian injuries, and one fatality.
A residential three-story building and over 10 private houses were damaged due to a night-time Russian missile attack on Odesa, but fortunately, there were no casualties.
On the night of October 19, Russian occupiers attacked energy facilities in Chernihiv Oblast. A fire broke out due to the strike but was localized within a few hours.
As a result of a massive strike on Uman District in Cherkasy Oblast, a woman born in 1961 died from her injuries. Additionally, a critical infrastructure facility in Cherkasy District was attacked, and a "Shahed" drone hit a warehouse of a private enterprise.
During a Russian shelling of Bilozerka in Kherson Oblast on Saturday afternoon, a 33-year-old civilian man was killed.
On the afternoon of October 19, the Russian army attacked workers of a municipal enterprise in Dnipro District, Kherson. Five people were injured, all of whom were hospitalized with explosive injuries and concussions.
Throughout the day, Russian military forces used artillery and drones to shell the Nikopol and Marhanets communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Private houses, power lines, and infrastructure were damaged, but there were no casualties.
On Saturday evening, the enemy launched two strikes with KAB bombs on central Zaporizhzhia. Reports indicate that four people were injured.