Russia's war on Ukraine. 18.11.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted 4 unsuccessful assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions near Vovchansk and Starytsia. They actively employed bomber aviation.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 10 enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assault actions near Kucherivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, and Kolisnykivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 6 times, attempting to penetrate Ukrainian defenses near Tverdokhlibove, Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Terny, and Cherneshchyna. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian troops repelled an enemy attack near Verkhnyokamianske. On the Kramatorsk direction, there was combat engagement in the area of Bila Hora. Actively using bomber aviation on the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 3 attacks toward Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 32 enemy attacks in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Yuryivka, Hryhorivka, Pustynka, and Petrivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 42 attacks. The enemy's most active attempts to advance were near Nova Illinka, Berestky, Voznesenka, Sontsivka, Zoria, Maksymilianivka, Dalnie, Kurakhove, Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Antonivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 8 assaults in the areas of Trudove, Novodvorivka, Rivnopillya, and Rozdolivka and carried out airstrikes on Velyka Novosilka. On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an enemy attack near Novoandriivka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the occupying forces unsuccessfully attempted 4 times to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions.
General conclusion:
The capture of Kupyansk or Chasiv Yar will have significant operational impact on the geometry of the front line and threaten key Ukrainian defensive positions on those directions and recent Russian advances in these areas increase risks to Ukrainian defense, though not immediately.
The command of the Russian 3rd Combined Arms Army has been dismissed for providing false reports about the situation on the Siversk direction.
The Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast is falling behind schedule for operations and is unlikely to reach the Russian state border before the inauguration of the new U.S. president, as outlined by their military-political leadership.
A new phase of fighting has begun around Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Russian forces advanced in areas where they had suffered losses over the past year.
Russian infantry, in units of up to a company, captured a 4 km stretch of territory (0.5 km deep) near the border village of Sotnytsky Kozachok on the Kharkiv direction. Combined with Russian sabotage group activities in northern Chernihiv Oblast, this suggests an imitation of successful offensive actions to create a facade of a offensive from Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts.
The situation for Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Kupyansk direction is gradually deteriorating. Russian forces are expected to attempt a breakthrough toward the sugar plant with significant forces within the next week, as this would put Ukrainian Defense Forces east of the Oskil River at risk of encirclement.
Ukrainian forces withdrew from positions in Klishchiivka and parts of Andriivka due to supply issues, particularly with ammunition, worsened by Russian UAV activity and weather conditions. The abandoned positions remain under Ukrainian fire control, preventing Russian occupation. Attempts by Russian forces to outflank Chasiv Yar from the south via the road to Kostyantynivka have so far been unsuccessful. The situation in and around Chasiv Yar remains difficult.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy outnumbers Ukrainian forces 3:1 but sustains heavy losses in urban combat. Reports indicate Russian forces are shooting their own wounded due to a lack of medical supplies and evacuation challenges. The Russian "Center" Operational Grouping cannot send reinforcements here due to activity on other fronts.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have a 6:1 advantage in personnel and a 3:1 advantage in equipment, but their losses are estimated at 35-50%. It is assessed that the Russian "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping will be unable to simultaneously achieve its goals of reaching the administrative border of Donetsk Oblast and capturing Pokrovsk within the next 2-3 months.
The Russian "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping is attempting to encircle Velyka Novosilka from the west by attacking in the areas of Novodaryivka and Rivnopil. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold Makarivka firmly, disrupting Russian advances toward Velyka Novosilka.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 149 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian units near Olgovka, advancing close to Kremiannoe, Daryino, Novoivanovka, Kurilovka, and Plekhovo.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Strilecha, Vovchansk, and Starytsia but made no advances.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops advanced south of Kupyansk and attacked near Pishchane, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Kopanka, Nadiia, Tverdokhlibove, Hrekivka, Cherneshchyna, and Makiivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Terny.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked near Verkhnyokamianske and Ivano-Dariivka but did not advance.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops aligned part of the frontline southwest of Andriivka, advanced along the railway between Andriivka and Zelenopillya, near Klishchiivka, south of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, cleared areas south of the refractory plant in central Chasiv Yar, captured part of the Stupky-Holubivski-2 nature reserve, and reached the Druzhba forest south of Kalynivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka, making slight advances in the central and southern parts of Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops captured Yuryivka, advanced toward Zorya, west and south of Novooleksiivka, and continued attacking near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Krutyi Yar, Yuryivka, Petrivka, Pustynka, and Novooleksiivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Hrodivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces reached the northern outskirts of Kurakhove, the north bank of the Kurakhove reservoir, and are fighting for Nova Illinka. They advanced to the northern outskirts of Berestky, the eastern edge of Kurakhove, and south of Novoselydivka, attacking near Novodmytrivka, Voznesenka, Sontsivka, Zorya, Novoselydivka, Nova Illinka, Illintsi, Berestky, Kurakhove, Maksymilianivka, and Dalnie.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian troops advanced south of Konstyantynopolske along highway O0510, west of Antonivka, in wooded areas east of Bohoyavlenka, and west of Maksymivka. They attack Uspenivka and areas near Dalnie, Bohoyavlenka, Katerynivka, Antonivka, Romanivka, Trudove, Yantarne, Sukhyi Yar, Novodaryivka, and Rivnopillya.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 2 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 1434th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Chechnya" operates on the Kursk direction, the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade near the dam on the Snagost River, and the 106th Airborne Division near Daryino.
The 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army and the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army operate near Novohrodivka.
The "Sever-V" Brigade of the Volunteer Assault Corps and the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army are active in the Chasiv Yar area.
Possible operation situation developments:
The troops of the 20th Combined Arms Army will be used by the command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping on the flanks of its operational zone to facilitate the offensives of the 1st Tank Army and the 25th Combined Arms Army on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, respectively. The redeployment of part of the forces of the 20th Army to the operational zones of the 1st Tank Army and the 25th Army is likely.
If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka.
Before the end of November “Tavriya” OSG will withdraw from its positions along the Yelyzavetivka–Konstyantynopil line, Kurakhove, and the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir to avoid encirclement.
After capturing Kurakhove, the forces of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will focus on seizing Velyka Novosilka, which may occur in January 2025 following regrouping and replenishment of losses.
By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the "belt of fortresses" Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will create conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 18.11.24
Personnel - almost 722,440 (+1,560);
Tanks 9,365 (+15);
Armored combat vehicles – 19,059 (+38);
Artillery systems – 20,586 (+30);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,252 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 999 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 29,428 (+107);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 19,073 (+99);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,753 (+112)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On November 18 at 00:10, the enemy launched a missile strike, likely with a ballistic missile, targeting critical infrastructure in the city of Sumy. Power was lost in several areas of the city, and some hospitals are operating on generators.
On the evening of November 17, an enemy ballistic missile hit a multi-story residential building in Sumy, killing 12 people, including a 9-year-old boy and a 14-year-old girl. 84 people were injured, including 11 children. 10 people are in intensive care, six of them are children.
On Monday afternoon, the Russian army launched a missile strike on Odesa, targeting residential buildings and a business district. As a result, 10 civilians were killed (including seven police officers, a medic, and two local residents), and at least 50 people were injured, with four in critical condition.
On November 18, around 16:00, Russian forces shelled the village of Tokarivka in Kharkiv Oblast, injuring a man and a woman.
During the day, the Russian army attacked the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast 16 times, mostly with kamikaze drones and heavy artillery. Despite the attacks, no casualties were reported. In Nikopol, damage occurred to a municipal enterprise, an unused building, and a private house.
On November 18, power outage schedules were canceled in Zakarpattia, Volyn, Lviv, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.
On Tuesday, November 19, electricity consumption limits will be implemented in Ukraine due to damage to energy infrastructure during yesterday's massive missile and drone attack.