Russia's war on Ukraine. 18.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted to storm positions near Vovchansk and Starytsya 7 times without success.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 19 enemy attacks. The Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Vyshneve, and Nadiya. On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 21 attacks, attempting to break through the Ukrainian defenses near Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, Katerynivka, Novomykhailivka, Novosadove, Nevske, Torske, Serebrianka, Kreminna, and Bilohorivka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 3 times in the areas of Stupochky and Chasiv Yar. The Toretsk direction saw 8 enemy assaults near Toretsk, Nelipivka, and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 50 enemy attacks near Sukha Balka, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Novotoretske, Mykhailivka, Lysivka, and Selydove. The heaviest concentration of enemy attacks occurred near Promin and Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, 47 attacks were repelled, with the enemy concentrating near Katerynivka, Antonivka, and Heorhiivka. Additional attacks were reported near Izmailivka, Novodmytrivka, Kurakhove, Hirnyk, Kostyantynivka, Zoryane, Hostre, and Vodyane. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 11 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Vuhledar and Levadne. On the Orikhiv direction, an attack near Novoandriivka was repelled.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the invaders unsuccessfully tried 5 times to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from their positions.
Ukrainian operation is ongoing in Kursk Oblast. Over the past day, Russian aircraft conducted 31 airstrikes, dropping 58 guided aerial bombs (KAB) on their own territory.
On the Volyn and Polissya directions, there were no signs of enemy offensive group formations.
On the border with Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts the enemy continues to actively use artillery and aviation from Russian territory against Ukrainian towns and villages.
General conclusion:
The enemy is concentrating its main effort on the Kurakhove direction, aiming to eliminate the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ bridgehead in this area and create favorable conditions for further advance towards Pokrovsk.
The enemy's tactics on the Pokrovsk direction have changed: small assault groups now operate in pairs, with one group attempting to establish a tactical foothold on the forward position, while the other group follows behind to provide support.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 210 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces advanced south of Zelenyi Put, continuing fighting near Liubimovka, Malaya Loknia, Novoivanovka, and Plekhovo. They also launched assaults on Ukrainian positions near Novyi Put.
In the "Siversk" OTG operational zone, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked towards Tolstyi Lug, Liubimovka, Zelionyi Put, Nizhniy Klin, and Russkaya Konopelka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued assaults near Vovchansk and Starytsya but failed to make progress. Ukrainian Defense Forces are gradually pushing the enemy back towards the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod Oblasts. The "Kharkiv" OTG reconnaissance and special forces conduct operations in the wooded areas west of Zhuravliovka in Belgorod Oblast.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have reached a line 4 km from Kupiansk and continue their offensive near Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, Hlushkivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Vyshneve, Nadiia, Hrekivka, Druzhelyubivka, Katerynivka, and Novomykhailivka. They also struck a bridge over the Oskil River on the R79 highway between Borova and Horokhuvatka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked near Novosadove, Makiivka, Nevske, Terny, Torske, Dibrova, and Serebrianka.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations near Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced within and southeast of Chasiv Yar near mine No. 9 and continued attacks near Hryhorivka, Minkivka, Ivanivske, and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces reclaimed previously lost positions in the center of Toretsk.
The occupiers tried to advance north of New York and continued offensives near Toretsk, Nelipivka, Shcherbynivka, and Sukha Balka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces achieved success in eastern Lysivka, capturing water treatment facilities west of Novohrodivka and advancing along a treeline southwest of Selydove, at the northwestern outskirts of Selydove, south of Tsukuryne, and east of Novoselydivka. They continued offensives near Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Izmailivka, Novodmytrivka, Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, and Zoryane.
Ukrainian Defense Forces regained control over territories near Mykolaivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced within Maksymilianivka and continued their offensive near Heorhiivka and Hostre.
On the Vremivka direction, the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division (68th Army Corps) are attempting to advance on the southern outskirts of Katerynivka. Russian forces also continued their offensive near Antonivka, Kostyantynivka, Vodyane, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, and Zolota Nyva.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces conducted assaults northwest of Robotyne, near Mala Tokmachka, and in the direction of Novodanylivka and Kamianske.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 0 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade is operating near Tolstyi Lug in Kursk Oblast.
Enemy forces from the 35th Combined Arms Army are advancing in the direction of Polohy.
The 18th Combined Arms Army conducts combat operations on the Kherson direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West”) Operational Grouping will intensify efforts on the Lyman direction to ensure the advance of the 25th Combined Arms Army to the Borova–Lyman line. The goal is to assist in the elimination of the Siversk bridgehead held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces and create favorable conditions for the eventual capture of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year.
The enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping's 3rd Combined Arms Army will attempt to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Siversk salient and capture Chasiv Yar, in order to establish the conditions for further advances towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.
The enemy's 67th Motorized Rifle Division, part of the 44th Army Corps, is expected to begin assault operations on the Kharkiv direction soon, using assault companies from the 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment, supported by armored groups from the 11th Separate Tank Brigade and the 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division.
The consolidation of the enemy's tactical bridgeheads across the Chornyi Zherebets River will signal an increased intensity of actions by the forward units of the 25th Combined Arms Army in the directions of Zarichne, Yampolivka, and Torske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 18.10.24
Personnel - almost 675,800 (+1,530);
Tanks 9,027 (+13);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,053 (+51);
Artillery systems – 19,533 (+23);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,232 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 978 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,908 (+93);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 17,152 (+48);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,620 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
During the night of October 18, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 135 strike drones, 80 of which were destroyed, 44 were lost in location, 2 flew into Belarus, and approximately 10 drones remained in the air as of 8:00 AM.
In the morning of October 18, in the village of Stanislav, Kherson Oblast, Russian forces attacked an ambulance with a drone. Fortunately, the medical workers were unharmed, but the vehicle was damaged.
In the afternoon, in Kherson, Russian forces attacked regional emergency rescue service workers with a drone. Five men suffered explosive injuries, as well as shrapnel wounds to their limbs and torso. All the victims were taken to the hospital for medical assistance.
Later that evening, Russians attacked the Dnipro district of Kherson with a drone, injuring a man who was near a store.
Russia returned the bodies of five out of six soldiers from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after Marko Bezruchko, who were executed in February 2024 at the "Zenit" position in the city of Avdiivka. The 110th brigade had been informed that Russians promised to evacuate wounded Ukrainian soldiers who were trapped at the "Zenit" stronghold, but instead, they were executed.
In total, on October 18, 501 fallen defenders were repatriated to Ukraine through repatriation efforts.
On the Bakhmut direction, the occupiers executed a presumably wounded serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It likely occurred on September 6, 2024, around 10:00 AM near the "Phenol Plant" in the village of New York, according to the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine.
Ukraine is aware of over a hundred cases of the Russian military executing Ukrainian Defense Forces fighters who had surrendered, as reported by the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets.
Around 35% of Ukrainian refugees want to return to Ukraine as soon as it becomes safe again. About 25% do not plan to return, 4% plan to return soon regardless of the security situation. Almost 11% have already returned to Ukraine, while another 25% remain undecided, according to a survey by the ifo Institute in Munich.