Russia's war on Ukraine. 17.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched 6 assaults in the areas of Vovchansk and Strilecha.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 10 enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Pishchane, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Zahryzove. The enemy actively utilized aviation. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 10 times, attempting to breach defenses near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Cherneshchyna, Tverdokhlibove, and Terny.  On the Toretsk direction, there were 7 assaults near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 32 offensive actions toward Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Petrivka, Novooleksiivka, and Pustynka, with most attacks focused on Promin. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 attacks, with the enemy focusing efforts near Nova Illinka, Berestky, Novoselydivka, Voznesenka, Sontsivka, Novodmytrivka, Zoria, Kurakhove, Dalnie, Katerynivka, and Antonivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy launched 14 assaults in the areas of Romanivka, Sukhyi Yaly, Novodaryivka, Trudove, Yantarne, and Rivnopil.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repelled 4 enemy attacks.

General conclusion:

• The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a combined missile strike on Ukraine, employing 120 missiles of various types. 

• The enemy expanded the geography of combat operations on the Kharkiv direction, becoming more active near Sotnytsky Kozachok, Strilecha, and Vysoka Yaruha. 

• The commander of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division constantly moves reinforcements to the bridgehead via Pishchane (lower) and prepares for the next stage of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping’s offensive. The goal is to eliminate the entire northern section of the "Khortytsia" OSG’s bridgehead along the Oskil River near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. To this end, units of the 47th Tank Division are expected to intensify activity toward Kivsharivka and Pishchane (upper), the 25th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army in the "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping toward Vilshana and Petropavlivka, and the 11th Army Corps toward Pershotravneve and Pishchane (upper). 

• It is crucial for the "Tavriya" OSG units to hold onto positions at Sontsivka and the line south of Voznesenka and Novoselydivka. Failure to do so would allow the enemy’s rapid advance toward Berestky from the north, threatening to encircle "Tavriya" OSG units defending east of the railway leading to Pokrovsk. 

• The enemy is increasingly transporting tanks, armored vehicles, and ammunition trucks from the Berdyansk and Polohy directions through occupied Mariupol toward Volnovakha to support the offensive on the Kurakhove direction. Such activity has not been observed since at least spring 2023. Most combat equipment moving to Mariupol or Hranytne arrived from Russia rather than occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 133 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk direction, Russian forces are engaged in combat near Malaya Loknia and Martynovka.

• The "Siversk" OTG conducted counterattacks near Daryino, Novoivanovka, and Olgovka.

• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces are attempting to capture Sotnytsky Kozachok and have advanced in the areas of Vovchansk, Vysoka Yaruha, and Strilecha.

• On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy continues to expand its foothold on the Oskil River near Kruhlyakivka. Forward units of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army have occupied Kolisnykivka, expanding their bridgehead to 3–3.5 km.

• On the Lyman direction, the enemy has yet to significantly expand its foothold on the Chornyi Zherebets River toward Hrekivka and the Makiivka area. However, forward units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army persist in these efforts. Units of the 254th and 283rd Motorized Rifle Regiments have not only consolidated positions in the Nevske area but also advanced from the north to the outskirts of Terny. However, further enemy offensive actions toward Terny from the north have been blocked by Ukrainian Defense Forces.

• The 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, tasked with advancing on Borova, continues to unsuccessfully attack the forward positions of the "Khortytsia" OSG in the Pervomayske–Kopanky direction, attempting to outflank Ukrainian Defense Forces west of Raihorodok and in the Novoyehorivka area.

• On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka but made no progress.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced toward Chasiv Yar, reaching Dubrovskyi Street in the city center, and attacked in the Bila Hora area.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced along Naberezhna Street and Promeneva Street in the southern part of Toretsk, as well as toward Havrylova Street on the northeastern outskirts. They are also fighting for Krymske and have attacked in the areas of Dyliivka and Shcherbynivka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Combined Arms Army broke through to the western outskirts of Hryhorivka. Russian forces attempted to advance near Novooleksiivka, Pustynka, and Yuryivka and attacked in the areas of Promin, Myrolyubivka, Krutyi Yar, Lysivka, Petrivka, Novooleksiivka, and Pustynka.

• On the Kurakhove direction, forward units of the "Tavriya" OSG fiercely resist the enemy in the areas of Dalnie and Uspenivka. The pace of the enemy's advance on the southern flank has significantly slowed.

• The 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army has not yet fully taken control of Dalnie or cut the Kurakhivka–Uspenivka road south of Kurakhove. Fighting continues in Trudove and south of Uspenivka, where the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has been unable to reach the Sukhyi Yaly River and isolate Ukrainian forces defending the Yelyzavetivka area. The situation remains extremely tense.

• On the northern flank, "Tavriya" OSG units are gradually withdrawing from the northern shore of the Kurakhove Reservoir, conducting fierce rear-guard battles with elements of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army advancing from the north and the 51st Combined Arms Army attacking from the east. The latter occupied Nova Illinka and reached the northern end of the dam.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces captured Makarivka and advanced toward Novodaryivka. The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army holds positions in Makarivka but does not control the northern part of the village.

• The "Tavriya" OSG counterattacks near Trudove.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the Novoandriivka area and advanced toward Novodanylivka.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Black Sea: 4 ships, including 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.

  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 24 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 137th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division operates southeast of Korenevo. 

• Two machine gun battalions, an artillery battalion, and a tank company from the 69th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army have been redeployed from the Huliaypole direction to the Kursk direction. 

• An anti-aircraft battalion from the 11th Separate Tank Brigade of the 25th Combined Arms Army is in the first-line operational reserve and is regularly tasked with countering reconnaissance and strike drones of Ukrainian Defense Forces throughout the army's operational zone. For this, a composite unit consisting of four 9A34M "Strela-10M" systems with a stock of 12–14 surface-to-air missiles per vehicle has been formed. A bonus of 5,000–7,000 rubles is offered for the destruction of each drone. 

• On the Pokrovsk direction, the 41st Combined Arms Army has received 27 T-90M "Proryv" tanks and 32 BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles (4–5 of which are BMP-3M models) during the late summer and fall. 

• In the 3rd Combined Arms Army on the Siversk direction, front-line units retain just over 100 operational tanks and 315–318 armored fighting vehicles, while on the Kramatorsk direction, the numbers are over 210 tanks and 830–840 armored fighting vehicles. The primary offensive of the 3rd Combined Arms Army is directed toward Kostyantynivka. 

• The 14th Separate SOF Brigade and the 69th Separate Cover Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army are active on the Kurakhove–Vuhledar direction. The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps operates near Yelyzavetivka and Trudove. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army is active near Illinets. The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet operates on the Shakhtarske direction. 

• It has been reported that drone operators of the Russian BARS-3 "Rodina" Battalion (a reserve unit of the Russian Armed Forces) continue to operate on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The troops of the 20th Combined Arms Army will be used by the command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping on the flanks of its operational zone to facilitate the offensives of the 1st Tank Army and the 25th Combined Arms Army on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, respectively. The redeployment of part of the forces of the 20th Army to the operational zones of the 1st Tank Army and the 25th Army is likely.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka.

• Before the end of November “Tavriya” OSG will withdraw from its positions along the Yelyzavetivka–Konstyantynopil line, Kurakhove, and the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir to avoid encirclement.

• After capturing Kurakhove, the forces of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will focus on seizing Velyka Novosilka, which may occur in January 2025 following regrouping and replenishment of losses.

• By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the "belt of fortresses" Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka.

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will create conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 17.11.24  

Personnel - almost 720,880 (+1,640); 

Tanks 9,350 (+12);

Armored combat vehicles – 19,021 (+27); 

Artillery systems – 20,556 (+36);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,252 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 999 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 29,321 (+85);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,974 (+60);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,641 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of November 17, Russian forces carried out a combined strike on Ukraine’s energy sector with 120 missiles and 90 drones. These included the 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missile, eight Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, 101 Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles, Iskander-M ballistic missiles, four Kh-22/Kh-31P cruise/anti-radiation missiles, and five guided Kh-59/Kh-69 aviation missiles. Ukrainian forces destroyed 144 missiles and drones, while 41 enemy drones were lost over various Oblasts, and two drones returned to Russia.

• Russian missiles targeted Ukraine’s energy system, hitting generation and transmission facilities nationwide, according to Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko. On the morning of November 17, emergency power outages were implemented in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In Odesa, all electric transport ceased operation, and Rivne also suffered missile strikes.

• Several substations essential for external power to Ukrainian nuclear power plants were damaged during the morning missile attack. This caused reduced electricity generation at nuclear plants, according to IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi.

• Volyn and Vinnytsia Oblasts were hit during the morning air raid on November 17, damaging energy infrastructure in both Oblasts. Preliminary reports indicate no casualties. Power outages were introduced in Vinnytsia Oblast.

• In Mykolaiv, a drone strike on a residential building killed two women, injured four adults, and two children. One child was hospitalized, and psychological assistance is being provided to the other.

• In Dnipro, one person was injured during a Russian strike that damaged apartment buildings, a school, and a car. There were also incidents in Kryvyi Rih, Samara Raion, and Kamianske, where several fires broke out.

• The massive attack on November 17 significantly damaged equipment at DTEK thermal power plants. No casualties were reported. This was the eighth large-scale attack on the company's facilities this year, with DTEK power plants having been targeted over 190 times since the full-scale invasion began.

• Two railway workers were killed, and three were injured during shelling at a depot in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

• In Lviv Oblast, a 66-year-old woman died in Chervonohrad Raion when debris from a missile strike hit her car. Three others were injured, one of whom was hospitalized.

• Energy infrastructure in Odesa Oblast was damaged, leading to disruptions in heating, water, and electricity supply. Two energy workers were killed, and a teenager was injured. Fires broke out in three private homes, while four other houses were partially destroyed. Emergency power outages were implemented. Hospitals and other critical facilities are operating on generators, and heating and water supply are expected to be restored by the morning of November 18.

• On Monday, November 18, nationwide measures to limit energy consumption will be implemented, with two phases of outages operating simultaneously between 6:00 AM and 10:00 PM, according to Ukrenergo.

• In Kherson and its surrounding communities, three civilians were killed, and nine others were injured during Russian shelling on Sunday.