Russia's war on Ukraine. 17.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, there were 4 combat engagemant in the area of Starytsya.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the number of enemy attacks reached 18. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Kucherivka, Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova, and Vyshneve. On the Lyman direction, the enemy launched 17 assaults near Nevske, Makiivka, Torske, and Dibrova. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 3 times in the areas of Stupochky and Chasiv Yar. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, attacked near Toretsk.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 15 attacks in the areas of Promin, Krutyi Yar, and Selydove, with the most intense enemy activity observed near Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 52 attacks near Tsukuryne, Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, Heorhiivka, and close to Vodyane. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 4 assaults towards Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, and near Zolota Nyva. On the Orikhiv direction, an assault on the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ positions was recorded near Mala Tokmachka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, the operational situation remains unchanged. The enemy carried out 6 unsuccessful assaults.
On the Volyn and Polissya directions, there were no signs of enemy offensive group formations.
The enemy maintains a military presence along the border with Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts.
An operation is ongoing in Kursk Oblast. According to available inforamtion, the aggressor launched 21 air strikes on Kursk Oblast, dropping 32 guided aerial bombs (KAB).
General conclusion:
The force ratio on the Kursk direction is 1:5 in favor of the enemy, but "Siversk" (OTG) continues to attack despite manpower shortages and issues with communication and coordination.
The enemy’s 20th Combined Arms Army concentrates efforts on advancing in the directions of Makiivka-Hrekivka and Nevske-Katerynivka, with part of its forces also moving towards Nevske-Torske.
Increased enemy activity on the Lyman direction is driven by the need to eliminate the Siversk bridgehead of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and to capture the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by the end of this year. Achieving this requires the 25th Combined Arms Army to reach the Borova-Lyman line.
The 3rd Combined Arms Army of the enemy’s "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping is trying to push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Siversk salient and capture Chasiv Yar to set conditions for advancing towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.
The formation of assault companies in the 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division is nearing completion, with armored vehicles from the 11th Separate Tank Brigade and the 19th Tank Regiment being deployed to the front line. The enemy is forming assault units with significant reinforcement from tanks and armored fighting vehicles.
Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully repel Russian attacks southeast of Chasiv Yar, despite the enemy maintaining fire control over logistical routes near Chasiv Yar.
Russian artillery and aviation have destroyed all buildings in Toretsk that Ukrainian Defense Forces could have used as defensive positions.
Russian forces are attempting to encircle Selydove.
The terrain between Kamianske and the Dnipro Reservoir, east of the village, is hindering the advancement of Russian forces. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, rain has flooded Russian trenches and made it difficult to use wheeled vehicles to deliver ammunition and supplies to forward positions.
In the airspace near Novorossiysk at altitudes of 200-250 meters above the water, the enemy conducted tests of two visual surveillance balloons from a tethered balloon complex, equipped with high-resolution video surveillance equipment, transmitting video in real-time to the command post at the Novorossiysk Naval Base.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 163 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces advanced east of Liubimovka, west of Zelionyi Put, and in the fields northwest of Kruglenkoe, and attacked in Olgovka. Fighting continues for Novoivanovka, near Tolstyi Lug, Nizhniy Klin, Malaya Loknia, Russkoe Porechie, Nizhniaia Parovaia, Nechaievo, Plekhovo, Ruskaya Konopelka, Fanaseevka, and on the northern outskirts of Novyi Put.
Russian forces captured the "Kostyantynivka" checkpoint on the international border between Kursk and Sumy Oblasts. The enemy dismantled the "dragon’s teeth" barriers near roadblocks in the area of Bolshoe Soldatskoe on the R200 highway.
On the Kharkiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced north of Kharkiv, clearing a forest area of 400 hectares north of Lyptsi. During the fighting, the "Shtorm" unit and the reconnaissance company of the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps were destroyed, and losses were inflicted on at least three enemy battalions.
Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Vovchansk and Starytsya.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced along the tree line east of Kruhlyakivka, on the eastern and southeastern outskirts of Kolisnykivka, and north of Kruhlyakivka, concentrating efforts near Kolisnykivka. They continued their offensive in the areas of Kucherivka, Petropavlivka, Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Pishchane, Lozova, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, and Vyshneve.
On the Lyman direction, enemy forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping continue efforts to eliminate the Ukrainian Defense Forces' foothold on the left bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River. The enemy managed to fully capture Makiivka and Nevske in the northern part of the bridgehead, establishing their own bridgeheads on the opposite bank of the Chornyi Zherebets River, particularly in the Makiivka and Nevske areas.
In the operational zone of the 25th Combined Arms Army, the enemy's forward units attempt to push the Ukrainian Defense Forces' units across the river in the direction of Zarichne, Yampolivka, and Torske.
The 254th Motorized Rifle Regiment, reinforced by units of the 59th Tank Regiment and the 283rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army, is trying to expand its penetration into the "Khortytsia" OSG defense near Nevske, particularly aiming to break through to Novolyubivka and Novosadove, supporting the forward units of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Combined Arms Army operating further south. The enemy actively uses armored vehicles.
The forward units of the 237th Tank Regiment and the 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division captured Makiivka, crossed the Chornyi Zherebets River, and created a bridgehead on the opposite bank with a capacity of up to a company. The enemy is trying to advance towards Hrekivka, simultaneously with the main forces of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division advancing from Novovodyane.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces advanced north of Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar and advanced in the Kalynivka, Stupochky, and Predtechyne areas.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the eastern part of Toretsk and the western outskirts of Druzhba, conducting offensive actions near Toretsk, Dachne, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army is engaged in battles for Krasnyi Yar, advancing southwest of Selydove, and continuing attacks in the areas of Promin, Myrolyubivka, Novotroitske, Krasnyi Yar, Selydove, Krutyi Yar, Tsukuryne, Zoryane, Zhelanne Druhe, Izmailivka, Novodmytrivka, Hirnyk, Novoselydivka, and Kreminna Balka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Heorhiivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attempted to advance west of Vodyane and near Zolota Nyva, with ongoing fighting near Zolota Nyva, Bohoyavlenka, and Rozdolne.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Mala Tokmachka and began advancing towards the northern outskirts of Kamianske.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces continued unsuccessful attacks on the left bank of Kherson Oblast.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The enemy's “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping received a reinforcement of 1,622 servicemen in the last two weeks of September. The majority of these were deployed to the forward battalions of the brigades of the 2nd Combined Arms Army. The reinforcements were transferred via rail and military transport aviation.
The 1st and 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army operate on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy's “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping on the Lyman direction comprises up to 35,000 servicemen, 560 tanks, 1,050 armored combat vehicles, up to 350 guns and mortars, 120 MLRS systems, and an Iskander missile division. Their operations are supported by army and strike aviation, with 4-6 sorties per day.
The 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division and the 11th Separate Tank Brigade of the 25th Combined Arms Army are kept in the first-line operational reserve. The general military reserve includes the 353rd, 361st, and 362nd Reserve Motorized Rifle Regiments. Overall, the enemy's reserve on the Lyman direction is estimated at 6-7 thousand servicemen, up to 100 tanks, 70 armored combat vehicles, and 80 units of barrel and rocket artillery.
Possible operation situation developments:
The consolidation of the enemy's tactical bridgeheads across the Chornyi Zherebets River will signal an increased intensity of actions by the forward units of the 25th Combined Arms Army in the directions of Zarichne, Yampolivka, and Torske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 17.10.24
Personnel - almost 674,270 (+1,420);
Tanks 9,014 (+17);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,002 (+33);
Artillery systems – 19,510 (+51);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,232 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 978 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,815 (+83);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 17,104 (+54);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,620 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of October 17, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 56 strike drones and unidentified drones, as well as a guided Kh-59 aviation missile. Twenty-two enemy drones were destroyed, 27 were lost in location, and 2 headed towards Belarus. Five drones hit infrastructure in frontline Oblasts.
On the night of October 17, Russian forces attacked energy infrastructure in Mykolaiv Oblast, leaving unspecified number of consumers without electricity. No casualties were reported.
On the night of October 17, Russian strike drones approached Kyiv in waves from different directions. Air raid alerts were announced four times in the capital, with the total threat lasting 3.5 hours. All Russian drones were destroyed, but a residential apartment building was damaged in the Desnianskyi district. No casualties were reported.
In the morning of October 17, Russian forces dropped explosives from a drone in the Dnipro district of Kherson, injuring a 42-year-old man.
Around 3:00 PM on October 17, during enemy shelling of the city of Marhanets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, three people were injured. A 56-year-old man and two women, aged 47 and 68, were hospitalized in moderate condition.
On October 16, Russian forces shelled the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast over 30 times. The majority of the attacks were carried out using kamikaze drones, along with artillery shelling. Three people were injured, and damage was inflicted on a business and infrastructure.
Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 65 shelling attacks with various weapons on border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and parts of Kharkiv Oblasts, resulting in 171 explosions in total.
Since the beginning of September, more than 600 people have evacuated from Kherson Oblast. Russian forces attacked the Oblast with drones over 2,700 times in September, and since the beginning of October, about 1,500 attacks have been recorded.
As of October 15, 2024, around 334,000 civilians remain in Ukrainian government-controlled territory in Donetsk Oblast, and evacuation efforts are ongoing.
More than 10,000 residents need to be evacuated from the most dangerous areas of Kharkiv Oblast, with priority being given to the left bank of the Oskil River in the Kupiansk district, according to the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, Oleh Syniehubov.
Since 2022, 35,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory have been surveyed and cleared of mines and explosive devices.