Russia's war on Ukraine. 17.05.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, fighting continues near Tetkino and Hornal.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked from Atynske and Ryzhivka in Sumy Oblast.
On Sumy direction, the 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps is attempting to advance from Veselivka. Fighting took place along the Vodolaha–Loknia line.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Bezsalivka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces tried to advance towards Vovchanski Khutory, attacked near Lyptsi, Kudiivka, Hlyboke, in the direction of Vysoka Yaruha.
An enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group was detected and neutralized south of Zhuravlivka.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive actions, attacked near Putnykove, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Olkhivka, in the direction of Pishchane, Novoosynove, Novoplatonivka, and attempted to advance on the eastern bank of the Tekuch River near Hrekivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces tried to advance northeast of Novomykhailivka, attacked near Novyi Mir, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodiazi, in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, and Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of Chasiv Yar, attempted to advance within the city, northwest of Kalynivka and in Stupochky, attacked near Kurdyumivka, Klishchiivka, and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced in northern Toretsk, north of Dachne, west of Dyliivka, on the northern outskirts of Druzhba, attempted to advance northwest of Oleksandropil, attacked in Toretsk, near Dyliivka, Krymske, Katerynivka, Novospaske, Zoria, Stara Mykolaivka, Nova Poltavka, and in the direction of Popiv Yar.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance northwest of Zvirove, attacked near Myroliubivka, Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Udachne, and Kotlyne.
The 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army is on the northern outskirts of Myroliubivka. Earlier, the brigade operated on the Toretsk direction, lost combat capability in battles in February and March, and was withdrawn for recovery.
Russian forces advanced northwest of Hrodivka and are fighting for Mykhailivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced southwest of Novooleksandrivka, attacked near Novooleksandrivka, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Kotlyarivka, Zaporizhzhia, Troitske, Bohdanivka, Andriivka, Konstyantynopil, and attempted to advance near Odradne and Bahatyr.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Bahatyr.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces attempted to advance north of Burlatske, south and northwest of Vilne Pole, northwest of Novosilka, east of Novopil, attacked near Shevchenkove, Pryvilne, and Zelene Pole.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Lobkove, attacked near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, and Stepove.
On the Prydniprovske direction, enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups periodically cross the Dnipro River to operate on the western bank.
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck an ammunition depot of the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade and the 8th Artillery Regiment of the 22nd Army Corps in Perevalne.
General conclusion:
The increase in enemy reconnaissance activity along the international border north of Kharkiv may indicate preparations for an offensive operation west of the village of Strilecha.
Russian forces continue to expand their footholds northeast of Pokrovsk and southwest of Toretsk. However, the enemy is forced to balance between advancing in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk areas and pushing along the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, capturing Kupyansk, and advancing towards Borova and Lyman in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
The enemy is trying to complete urban fighting in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, which complicates their advance towards Kostyantynivka and the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration as a whole. The enemy's military command may resort to an operational pause and attempt to level the front line to the southwest of Toretsk.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations does not have sufficient resources, primarily manpower, to both encircle Pokrovsk and conduct a decisive offensive operation towards Kostyantynivka in the coming months.
The command of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has not created a sufficient operational reserve to support operations in Ukraine.
The increase in Russian activity to the north, east, and south of Pokrovsk indicates that the enemy's command assesses the combat capability of Ukrainian Defense Forces in this direction as low. The enemy may intensify efforts to encircle Pokrovsk.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 145 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy assaulted Ukrainian Defense Forces positions five times in the areas of Vovchansk, Stroyivka, and Kamyanka.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were four Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions towards Kolisnykivka, Novoosynove, and near Zahryzove.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 17 times, attempting to advance near Hrekivka, Torske, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi, and towards Shyikivka, Olhivka, Novyi Mir, Ridkodub, and Zelena Dolyna.
On the Siversk direction, in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Bilohorivka, the enemy attacked four times.
On the Kramatorsk direction, two combat engagements were recorded near Chasiv Yar and Kurdyumivka.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 19 attacks in the areas of Toretsk, Krymske, and towards Dyliivka, Katerynivka, Pleshchiivka, and Novospaske.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 52 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor were stopped in the areas of Novoserhiyivka, Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Zaporizhzhia, Troitske, Bohdanivka, Andriivka, and towards Novoukrainka, Oleksiivka, Poltavka, Yablunivka, Stara Mykolaivka, Nova Poltavka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attacked 18 times in the areas of Konstyantynopil, Shevchenko, Novosilky, and towards Bahatyr and Zelene Pole.
On the Orikhiv direction, two enemy assaults were repelled near Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky.
On the Kursk direction, 13 combat engagements took place. The enemy carried out 20 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
There were no strikes.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev, the former commander of the enemy's "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping, has been appointed as the Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Colonel General Valery Solodchuk has been appointed as the commander of the troops of the Central Military District. He is expected to soon transfer command of the Russian forces in Kursk Oblast and take charge of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping on the Pokrovsk direction.
The 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps operates in Stupochky.
The 57th and 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, along with the 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army, are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.
Possible operation situation developments:
The plan for the enemy's spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping through Lyman. Russian forces may attempt to advance near Kupyansk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, or toward the city of Zaporizhzhia. The Pokrovsk direction is viewed by Ukraine’s military-political leadership as the absolute priority for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Additionally, Russian forces intend to create a buffer zone in the north of Sumy Oblast and pose a threat to the city of Sumy in the coming months.
The enemy will maintain its offensive in northern Sumy Oblast to establish a buffer zone along the Yunakivka – Khrapivshchyna – Radkivka – Mohrytsya line, extending along the Psel River. The command of the "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping is focusing on seizing control of the Bilovody – Loknia – Yunakivka – Yablunivka sector, as well as the eastern portion of the forested area west of Mohrytsya. Their objective is to push forward to the Velyka Rybytsya – Myropillya line along the Psel River. The enemy is also attempting to break through towards Vorozhba and Bilopillya to disrupt the Sumy – Novhorod-Siverskyi supply route.
On the Kupyansk direction, the command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping intends to encircle the tactical group of "Khortytsia" OSG which is defending along the Novoyehorivka – Hrekivka line. To achieve this, they plan to advance with the 144th Motorized Rifle Division from the bridgehead near Nove towards the heights near the village of Cherneshchyna, and with the 4th Tank Division advancing in converging directions: Raihorodka – Cherneshchyna and Pershotravneve – Kopanky.
On the Lyman direction, the forces of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping will advance towards Karlivka and Drobysheve, aiming to reach the Karlivka – Shandryholove – Drobysheve line while simultaneously advancing near Torske to approach Lyman from the east. The 25th Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through the communication lines of the "Khortytsia" OSG tactical group, which is defending in the Dibrova – Yampil direction and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest. The enemy will attempt to advance on both banks of the Chornyi Zherebets River, moving towards the general directions of Yampolivka – Torske and Ivanivka – Zarichne. The main grouping of the army will operate on its right flank, attempting to break through from the north to the Lyman – Kreminna road in the Zarichne – Torske section, while simultaneously tying down the "Khortytsia" OSG forces in the center and on the left flank of the operational zone with frontal engagements.
On the Siversk direction, the command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will attempt to eliminate the Siversk salient held by "Khortytsia" OSG and break through towards the Sloviansk – Kramatorsk agglomeration and to Kostyantynivka, delivering its main strike in the area of Chasiv Yar. The 3rd Combined Arms Army of the enemy will try to break through to Kostyantynivka from Chasiv Yar, but it is unlikely to achieve its operational goals without reinforcements, such as the return of the 106th Airborne Division from the Kursk direction or strategic reserves. The 3rd Army will attempt to advance to the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River between Yampil and Hryhorivka and from the southeast towards Siversk. The command of the "Yug" Operational Grouping is also concentrating forces in the areas of Soledar, Rozdolivka, and Zaliznyanske to strike from the south along the Bakhmutka River towards Siversk. The offensive may begin with the advance of the forward units of the 127th and 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 3rd Army towards Siversk from the east and southeast. The immediate objective for the enemy is to capture Pereyizne and Fedorivka, with the subsequent goal of advancing to the Zvanivka – Vyimka line.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping and the 3rd Army, in particular, may soon change the direction of their main strike and shift it to the north of Chasiv Yar, launching an offensive on both sides of the Bakhmut–Sloviansk road along the Orikhovo-Vasylivka–Minkivka and Blahodatne–Pryvillya directions, which would allow them to break through to the forward approaches of Sloviansk directly from the southeast and create a real threat to the “Siversk” Operational Tactical Grouping (OTG) of Ukrainian Defense Forces by executing a deep flanking maneuver on its right flank. If the enemy manages to achieve operational surprise in these directions and advance to tactical depth, the situation in the Kolodyazi–Hryhorivka sector on the Lyman direction could radically deteriorate for the “Khortytsia” OSG.
Follow-on actions of the 8th Combined Arms Army south of Kostyantynivka could include a rapid advance from the southwest and west towards the forward approaches to Kostyantynivka or a breakthrough in the direction of Pokrovsk from Novoekonomichne and Myrnohrad. It should be considered that a breakthrough along the road towards Novoekonomichne and Myrnohrad would require the command of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping to involve elements of the 51st Combined Arms Army in the Vozdvyzhenka–Hrodivka sector and activate its forward units in the Mykolaivka–Promin direction. An attempt to achieve both objectives simultaneously, namely breaking through to Kostyantynivka and Myrnohrad, essentially advancing in diverging directions, would result in the collapse of the offensive. Within the week, the final choice of offensive direction is expected. The reassignment of the 150th and/or 20th Motorized Rifle Divisions to the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping should not be ruled out, as this would indicate a choice to prioritize a breakthrough towards Myrnohrad and further towards Pokrovsk from the east.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 17.05.25
Personnel - almost 972,600 (+910);
Tanks – 10,831 (+6);
Armored combat vehicles – 22,553 (+7);
Artillery systems – 27,942 (+34);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,386 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,167 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 48,809 (+96);
Aircraft - 372 (0);
Helicopters – 336 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 36,278 (+155);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,197 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of May 17, the enemy attacked with 62 strike UAVs, of which 36 were shot down, and another 6 were reported as "lost from radar." As a result of the enemy attack, Sumy, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts were affected.
On the morning of May 17, near the city of Bilopillya in Sumy Oblast, Russian forces attacked an evacuation bus with a "Lancet" drone. According to preliminary information, nine people were killed, and four more were injured. The majority of the victims were elderly women.
In the morning, in Kherson, a local resident was injured as a result of an attack by a Russian FPV drone. He was hospitalized in moderate condition. Also, around 9 a.m. in Kherson, Russian forces attacked a municipal enterprise vehicle with a drone, injuring three workers.
The Russians struck the city of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast after lunch. Two women, aged 52 and 72, were injured. They sustained concussions and explosive shrapnel wounds.
Throughout Friday, May 16, the occupiers launched one missile strike and 63 airstrikes on Ukrainian territory, deployed one missile, dropped 112 guided aerial bombs, and attacked 135 times with multiple rocket launch systems, according to the General Staff.
The occupation administration of the temporarily occupied Luhansk Oblast is developing documents that would allow the involvement of teenagers in unpaid agricultural work. This mainly concerns work at agricultural enterprises owned by Russians—not small businesses but large industrial companies. One of the problems, as noted by the resistance movement "Yellow Ribbon," is that the Russians have mined large areas in the temporarily occupied territories of Luhansk, including agricultural land, making such work life-threatening and risking severe injury.