Russia’s war on Ukraine. 16.11.25
Operational situation
On the Northern Slobozhansky direction, the Russian military command partially unblocked the encircled units of the 1st Consolidated Rifle Regiment of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Armed Forces in the area of Bezsalivka but failed to resolve supply problems.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the enemy that had infiltrated the buildings on the western outskirts of Synelnykove, struck the enemy concentration area near Vovchansk.
Russian forces attacked near Synelnykove, Vovchansk, Odradne, attempted to advance toward Khatnie.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions near the railway southwest of Stepova Novoselivka, attempted to advance in the north of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, attacked toward Dvorichanske, Kolodyazne, near Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Kurylivka, Borova, toward Novoplatonivka, near Druzhelyubivka, Novoyehorivka, Tverdokhlibove, Olhivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in Kupyansk and near it, near Kutkivka, Nechvolodivka, Osynove.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced into the eastern outskirts of Novoselivka, attacked near Drobysheve, Shandryholove, toward Korovyi Yar, near Novyi Mir, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Myrne, Zarichne, Yampil.
On the Sloviansk direction, Russian forces advanced to the northwest of Vyimka, within Dronivka, attacked near Siversk, Serebrianka, Verkhnyokamianske, Zvanivka, Pereyizne, Fedorivka, Vasyukivka.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian forces advanced to the north of Kleban-Byk, attacked near Kostyantynivka, Mayske, Markove, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Minkivka, Predtechyne, Shcherbynivka, Pleshchiivka, Ivanopillya, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka, Sofiivka, Volodymyrivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Predtechyne and Stupochky.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the eastern part of Shakhove, attempted to advance in the northern outskirts and northeast of Myrnohrad, south of Hryshyne, attacked near Zaporizhzhia, near and in Pokrovsk, near Rodynske, Krasnyi Lyman, Novoekonomichne, Lysivka, Novopavlivka, Udachne, Kotlyne, Novopidhorodnie, Molodetske, toward Serhiivka. Russian Ministry of Defense management stated that the UAV operators of the Russian Unit of the Center for Advanced UAV Technologies “Rubikon” maintain fire control over Ukrainian logistics routes in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked on the outskirts of Pokrovsk and near Hryshyne.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, units of the 80th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army advanced to the northwestern outskirts of Novopavlivka, established a pontoon bridge between Yalta and Dachne across the Vovcha River.
Russian forces attacked near Novomykolayivka, Muravka, Kotlyarivka, Horikhove, Yalta, Dachne, Filiya, Zelenyi Hai, Ivanivka, Oleksandrohrad, Sosnivka, Stepove, Hai, Novooleksandrivka, toward Kolomiytsi, Tykhe, attempted to advance on the southeastern outskirts of Velykomykhailivka.
On the Huliaypole direction, the 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army captured Yablukove. Russian forces attempted to advance west of Vesele, toward Zelenyi Hai, attacked toward Varvarivka, near Yehorivka, Nechayivka, Danylivka, Rivnopillya, Solodke, Pryvilne, Zlahoda, Krasnohirske. The enemy continues attempts to infiltrate the Ukrainian rear, including areas near Vesele.
Ukrainian Defense Forces withdrew from Novovasylivske after Russian forces destroyed all shelters and fortifications in the village.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka, Stepnohirsk, Stepove, Prymorske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the enemy concentration area in Tokmak.
On the Prydniprovske direction, Russian forces continued local attacks near the Antonivskyi bridge but failed to advance.
General conclusion:
Ukrainian Defense Forces are clearing the northwestern outskirts of Kupyansk, eliminate enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups, and cut the enemy’s main logistical routes to the Oskil River on the northern outskirts of the city. It has become difficult for enemy infantry groups to penetrate Kupyansk, and the enemy presence in the city has significantly decreased.
Russian forces lately have been using foggy weather for attacks along the entire front, especially on the Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, and Huliaypole directions.
The enemy focuses on an offensive aimed at capturing Pokrovsk and eliminating the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad bridgehead of Ukrainian Defense Forces. The forces of the 41st Combined Arms Army, whose operational area includes the Oleksandrivka direction, support the 2nd Combined Arms Army on its southern flank.
Enemy actions near Novopavlivka on 14 November show the enemy’s attempt to exploit a key weakness of the Ukrainian defense: the inability to operate effectively in poor weather conditions such as fog and rain.
Ukrainian Defense Forces rely on the use of UAVs (“The Drone Wall”) to compensate for shortages of personnel and equipment to defend more than 1,200 km of the front line. A shortage of artillery and other systems limits the ability of Ukrainian forces to operate effectively in adverse weather conditions.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 176 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, 2 combat engagements occurred.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, 7 combat engagements occurred in the area of Vovchansk and toward Dvorichanske.
On the Kupyansk direction, 5 assaults by the occupiers occurred. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions in the area of Bohuslavka, Kupyansk and toward Pishchane and Novoplatonivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 7 times, attempting to advance in the areas of Yampolivka, Derylove, Kolodyazi and toward Druzhelyubivka, Drobysheve and Borova.
On the Sloviansk direction, the enemy conducted 12 attacks in the areas of Serebrianka, Verkhnyokamianske, Pereyizne and toward Zvanivka.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, the enemy conducted 22 attacks in the areas of Minkivka and Predtechyne, near Pleshchiivka, Kostyantynivka, Rusyn Yar and toward Sofiivka and Berestok.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 52 offensive actions of the aggressor were stopped in the areas of Krasnyi Lyman, Dorizhne, Rodynske, Novoekonomichne, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Rivne, Novopavlivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, Filiya, Dachne.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 20 attacks near Yalta, Sosnivka, Pryvilne, Vorone, Verbove, Vyshneve, Krasnohirske and Zelenyi Hai.
On the Huliaypole Direction, the enemy attacked 12 times toward Varvarivka and Zatyshshya.
On the Orikhiv Direction, the aggressor conducted 5 attacks near Stepnohirsk, Plavni and Stepove.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the enemy conducted 3 unsuccessful offensive actions toward the Antonivskyi bridge.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted a UAV strike on the Ryazan Oil Refinery and the Ryazan Thermal Power Plant.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division strikes Ukrainian positions near Nova Sich.
The 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions near Khatnie.
The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army strikes Ukrainian positions southwest of Stepova Novoselivka; the 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army and the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army operate near Kupyansk.
The 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army operates south of Siversk.
The “Sever-V” Brigade strikes Ukrainian positions near Chasiv Yar; the 27th Artillery Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps strikes near Kostyantynivka.
The 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian forces in Shakhove, and the 80th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 51st Combined Arms Army strikes near Myrnohrad.
The 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army operates near Danylivka.
The 104th Air Assault Division strikes Ukrainian positions near Orikhove.
Possible operation situation developments:
The Defense Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry assesses that while the enemy is unlikely to capture all of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2025, it may reach the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia and the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk area by early winter. Additionally, if current fighting continues at the same pace, the enemy could possibly take control of Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Kupyansk no earlier than year’s end.
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy’s 6th Army troops will be bypassing Kupyansk as deeply as possible in the general direction of the Chuhuiv– Kupyansk highway and will fight for the area of Mala Shapkivka–Velyka Shapkivka–Kindrashivka–Tyshchenkivka.
On the Lyman direction, the troops of the enemy’s 20th Combined Arms Army will attempt to reach the Siverskyi Donets River along the widest possible front, cut all main routes that do not cross the river, and block the town of Lyman from the northwest, for which they will advance toward the area of Yarova–Novoselivka–Drobysheve–Pryshyb. Ukrainian Defense Forces’ 11th Army Corps will continue to defend along the Novoselivka–Stavky line.
The enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will attack in the directions of Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka and Druzhkivka, attempting to cut the H20 highway Kostyantynivka–Sloviansk, which will complicate the logistics of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ 19th Army Corps in Kostyantynivka. The enemy will deliver concentric strikes simultaneously from Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, the Kleban-Byk Reservoir, and from the Poltavka–Novoolenivka line.
In the Dobropillya area, troops of the 51st Combined Arms Army will be pushing Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Sofiivka – Volodymyrivka – Pankivka – Shakhove area. The command of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping will attempt to envelop the Pokrovsk defense area of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the flanks, break through on the left flank of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to the road to Pavlohrad and in the center of the 51st Combined Arms Army’s offensive strip to the area north of Pokrovsk. Units of the 1st, 110th, 114th, and 39th Separate Motorized rifle Brigades of the 51st Army will make maximum efforts to hold the area of Zatyshok–Fedorivka–Razyne–Krasnyi Lyman (size 7 by 5 km). The enemy’s 40th, 155th, and 61st Separate Marine Brigades and the 177th Separate Marine Regiment will attack Shakhove and Sofiivka.
The forward units of the enemy’s 2nd Combined Arms Army will attempt to advance from the Pokrovsk industrial zone in a north-eastern direction toward Rodynske and the T-shaped intersection of roads to Dobropillya and Hryshyne to encircle elements of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces of Ukrainian Defense Forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
The intention of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ command to completely eliminate the 51st Army’s bridgehead on the Kazennyi Torets River will be extremely difficult to implement in practice. Further defense of Myrnohrad, or at least its southern part, appears questionable. The Defense Forces command will attempt to eliminate the enemy’s northeastern flank of the bridgehead and push elements of the 51st Army back beyond the Kazennyi Torets River in the directions Sukhetske–Razyne and Sukhetske–Fedorivka. At the same time, the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces of the Ukrainian Defense Forces will hold the northern part of Pokrovsk and clear the industrial zone.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, the main operational-tactical objective of the command of the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping is to envelop the Huliaypole defensive area from the north and block its main lines of communication, primarily from the Pokrovske side. The enemy will try to break through to the Khaychur River and to the Huliaypole–Pokrovske road on the Dobropillya–Varvarivka section and will attempt to reach Pokrovske directly from the southeast with the forces of the 36th Combined Arms Army and the right flank of the 5th Combined Arms Army.
On the Orikhiv direction, the “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will attempt to break through along the left bank of the Dnipro River from the Plavni – Kamianske line toward Stepnohirsk and from the Stepove – Mali Shcherbaky line in the northern direction.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 16.11.25
Personnel - almost 1,158 260 (+860);
Tanks – 11,353 (+3);
Armored combat vehicles ‒ 23,591 (+3);
Artillery systems – 34,469 (+25);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,543 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,244 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 67,464 (+68);
Aircraft - 428 (0);
Helicopters – 347 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 80,286 (+409);
Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 3,940 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, over the past week the Russian Federation has deployed against Ukraine approximately 1,000 strike drones, 980 guided aerial bombs, and 36 missiles of various types. As of November 16, restoration work continues in Kharkiv and Kharkiv Oblast, in Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts following Russian strikes.
On the night of November 16, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 176 unmanned aerial vehicles, about 100 of which were Shaheds. Ukrainian air defense confirmed downing or suppressing 139 drones. Direct hits by 37 strike UAVs were recorded at 14 locations, as well as debris falling at two locations. After 9 AM, new groups of drones were detected in the airspace.
On the night of November 16, the Russian occupation army attacked Sumy community with strike drones, damaging over 10 houses. As of 4 AM, there were no reports of casualties or fatalities. A large-scale fire was only extinguished at 11 AM.
On the night of November 16, Russian occupation forces struck energy facilities in Odesa Oblast, damaging a solar power plant. Fires broke out at the strike sites. Life support facilities and critical infrastructure were switched to backup power.
During the night, hits by Russian UAVs on infrastructure facilities were recorded in Nizhyn district of Chernihiv Oblast. On the afternoon of November 16, the Ministry of Energy reported new Russian shelling of energy infrastructure in Chernihiv Oblast. Part of the region’s communities were left without power.
On the afternoon of November 16, Russian forces struck a children’s playground in Kharkiv’s Kholodnohirskyi district with a Molniya drone. The attack, which occurred in the absence of an air raid alert, blew out several windows in surrounding buildings; there were no casualties.
On the afternoon of November 16, around 1:00 PM, Russian forces attacked a civilian vehicle in Kherson with a drone. As a result of the attack, three people were wounded: a 57-year-old woman and a 58-year-old man received shrapnel wounds, blast injuries and closed traumatic brain injuries, and later a 51-year-old man from the same car sought medical attention with blast trauma and concussion.
Throughout the day, Russian Federation forces attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with guided aerial bombs, heavy artillery, unmanned aerial vehicles and FPV drones, resulting in six people being injured. In Mezhivska community of Synelnykove district, a KAB hit civilian infrastructure, damaging shops, a kiosk and two cars, and injuring five people. In Synelnykove, a UAV hit caused a fire and damaged infrastructure. The enemy also deployed FPV drones and heavy artillery against Nikopol district, where an industrial enterprise, infrastructure, a private house, a café, an outbuilding and a gas station were damaged in the district center, Marhanets, Chervonohryhorivka, Myrivka and Pokrovsk communities; in addition, a 26-year-old woman was injured as a result of a nighttime attack on Marhanets.
On November 15, the enemy deployed an FPV drone against Mykolaiv community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A 41-year-old man was killed in the enemy strike.
In Donetsk Oblast, another 94 people, including 17 children, were evacuated from the front line.
A new wave of covert mobilization has begun in temporarily occupied Luhansk Oblast, reported Luhansk Oblast Military Administration head Oleksiy Kharchenko.
France stated that it “firmly condemns” the Russian strikes carried out on the night of November 13-14, predominantly targeting Kyiv, Ukrainian energy facilities, residential areas and a hospital, resulting in numerous casualties and wounded, including children. “These large-scale strikes, involving approximately 430 drones and 18 missiles launched in several salvos, represent a new escalation of the conflict and demonstrate... Russia’s lack of desire to achieve peace,” the French Foreign Ministry statement reads.