Russia's war on Ukraine. 16.11.24
Russia's war on Ukraine. 16.11.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched 9 assaults on Ukrainian positions in the areas of Vysoka Yaruha and Vovchansk.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 17 Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Kolisnykivka, Kopanky, and Nadiya. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 16 times, attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses near Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Terny, and Torske. Two combat engagements occurred near Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka on the Siversk direction. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked once in the area of Bila Hora. On the Toretsk direction, supported by aviation, the enemy launched 9 attacks near Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 38 enemy attacks toward Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Petrivka, and Pustynka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 35 attacks. The occupiers attempted to advance in the areas of Berestky, Novoselydivka, Voznesenka, Novodmytrivka, Maksymilianivka, Dalnie, and Antonivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 7 assaults in the areas of Trudove, Rivnopil, and Novodaryivka, actively deploying assault and bomber aviation. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers attacked once toward Novoandriivka but failed.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders attempted 5 times to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions, suffered heavy losses, and were repelled.
General conclusion:
An enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group (SRG) infiltrated 1.5 km into Ukraine's Chernihiv Oblast, operating in Hremyach, Kolos, Novoselivka, and Muravyi. These villages are separated from the rest of Chernihiv Oblast by the Sudist River, and the population has been evacuated. The SRG subsequently returned to Russian territory.
Russian forces are attack near Vovchansk, Starytsia, and Lyptsi, aiming to restore artillery fire positions for shelling Kharkiv and regain access to roads that could facilitate an advance toward the city.
During the offensive on Kupyansk, Russian forces employed a new tactic, using small armored groups of 5–10 infantrymen attempting to penetrate deeply into the “Khortytsia" OSG defenses.
Continued Russian advances in the central and western parts of Kupyansk, combined with progress near Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka, may force the "Khortytsia" OSG to withdraw from positions in Kupyansk and other footholds east and southeast of the city.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 170 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk direction, the “Siversk” OTG slightly advanced on the eastern outskirts of Novoivanovka.
Russian forces advanced in the forests near Malaya Loknia, Martynovka, and Olgovka, the 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division attacked near Daryino.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Vysoka Yaruha, Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Tykhe, Starytsia, and Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, "Khortytsia" OSG units repelled enemy forces that had penetrated the northeastern outskirts of Kupyansk and the area near the ponds, preventing them from consolidating. The enemy retains a bridgehead on the Hnylytsia River.
Russian forces advanced west of Karmazynivka and maintain fire control over nearly 10 km of territory west of Stelmakhivka, continuing offensives near Holubivka and Petropavlivka, as well as in the areas of Hlushkivka, Pishchane, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanka, Pershotravneve, Nadiia, Novoyehorivka, Druzhelyubivka, and Katerynivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Nevske, Terny, and Torske.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces launched attacks near Verkhnokamianske but did not achieve advances.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Predtechyne but did not advance, continuing efforts to push westward from bridgeheads on the western bank of the "Siverskyi Donets-Donbas" canal.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the northeastern and southern outskirts of Toretsk, attacking near Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and conducting assaults near Nelipivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces made minor advances on the northern outskirts of Yuryivka and west of Novooleksiivka, capturing positions in the northern part of Petrivka and Hryhorivka. They conducted assaults in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar, Petrivka, Pushkyne, Pustynka, and Zhovte.
On the Kurakhove direction, "Tavriya" OSG forces advanced west of Pobieda into the rear of Russian troops attempting to advance near Dalnie.
Russian forces advanced on the northern outskirts of Novoselydivka, clearing territory between Sontsivka and Novoselydivka, advancing east of Berestky, north of Illinka, and in Kurakhove, attacking in the areas of Novodmytrivka, Zorya, Voznesenka, Sontsivka, Novoselydivka, Nova Illinka, Berestky, Maksymilianivka, and Dalnie.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced on the northwestern outskirts of Antonivka, north of Maksymivka, and attacked in the areas of Antonivka, Kostyantynivka, Yantarne, Konstyantynopil, Trudove, Novodaryivka, north of Rivnopil, and near Makarivka. The enemy is attempting to advance on Velyka Novosilka from the east, south, and southwest to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead in this area.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Novodanylivka, increasing strike intensity on Ukrainian positions in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. No indications of troop movements to the Zaporizhzhia direction from other frontline sectors have been identified.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Ukrainian Navy unmanned boat strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet ships forced the enemy to reduce the number of vessels protecting the Kerch Strait Bridge from 10–14 in 2023 to zero as of November 2024. Helicopters are being used instead of planes due to their higher effectiveness against unmanned Ukrainian Defense Forces assets. Ukrainian Defense Forces strikes on enemy military facilities in occupied Crimea are compelling the enemy to allocate additional air defense assets to the area.
Ukrainian forces carried out an airstrike on the Krymskiy airfield in Krasnodar Krai (home to the 3rd Aviation Regiment of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army). Enemy losses are being clarified.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat operations in Toretsk.
The 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army is active on the Kherson direction, while the 61st Separate Marines Brigade of the Northern Fleet operates on the islands of the Dnipro Delta. Parts of the latter are also engaged in combat on the Pokrovsk direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka.
Before the end of November “Tavriya” OSG will withdraw from its positions along the Yelyzavetivka–Konstyantynopil line, Kurakhove, and the northern bank of the Kurakhove Reservoir to avoid encirclement.
After capturing Kurakhove, the forces of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will focus on seizing Velyka Novosilka, which may occur in January 2025 following regrouping and replenishment of losses.
By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the "belt of fortresses" Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will create conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 16.11.24
Personnel - almost 719,240 (+1,650);
Tanks 9,338 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles – 18,994 (+26);
Artillery systems – 20,520 (+28);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,252 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 999 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 29,236 (+69);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 18,914 (+28);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,641 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of November 16, Russian occupiers attacked Ukraine with 83 strike drones. Of these, 53 were shot down, and another 30 were lost due to location issues.
As a result of the nighttime airstrike by Russian drones, damage to residential infrastructure was recorded in Kyiv’s Obolon district. There were no reports of fire or casualties.
In the early morning, Russian forces attacked Zaporizhzhia and the Zaporizhzhia Oblast with drones, damaging a critical infrastructure facility. No casualties were reported.
At 5:00 PM, Russian forces struck the Vasylivka district in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The blast wave and debris destroyed a car, and a man was injured.
As a result of a drone attack on the Nikopol district of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a 75-year-old woman was injured. She received medical assistance. Damage was caused to a transport company, a five-story building, 10 private homes, and 10 outbuildings.
In Kherson Oblast, around 5:00 PM, two residents of Komyshany, who were in a bus, were injured by a Russian drone strike. Additionally, Russian forces dropped explosives from a UAV onto a 55-year-old man in Beryslav. The victim was hospitalized with blast injuries and a leg wound.
Russian forces launched a ballistic missile strike on Mykolaiv at 7:22 PM on Saturday. No casualties or injuries have been reported.
15 children were returned from temporarily occupied Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts to Ukrainian-controlled territory, according to Mykola Kuleba, founder of the Save Ukraine charity.