Russia’s war on Ukraine. 16.10.25
Operational situation
On the Northern Slobozhansky direction, Russian troops tried to advance near Kindrativka, in the southern part of Yunakivka, and attacked near Oleksiivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in Oleksiivka.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, Russian troops tried to advance in the western part of Vovchansk, south of Odradne, and attacked near Vovchanski Khutory, Synelnykove, Tykhe, in the direction of Okhrymivka, Bolohivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Tykhe, and advanced north of Bolohivka.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops attacked near Kupyansk, Zakhidne, in the direction of Kutkivka, Kolodyazne, near Kamyanka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, Novoplatonivka, Hrekivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Radkivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian troops tried to advance west of Shandryholove, in the northern part of Drobysheve, tried to enter Novoselivka, and attacked in the direction of Lyman, near Serednie, Derylove, Kolodyazi, Torske, Yampil.
On the Sloviansk direction, Russian troops tried to advance in the southeast of Dronivka, and attacked in the direction of Zakitne, near Serebrianka, Hryhorivka, Vyimka, Zvanivka, Pereyizne, Fedorivka.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian troops attacked near Kostyantynivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Stupochky, Predtechyne, Pleshchiivka, Bila Hora, Toretsk, Shcherbynivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Ivanopillya, in the direction of Berestky, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, in the direction of Sofiivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops advanced in the southern part of Pokrovsk, tried to advance near Rodynske, in the south of Myrnohrad, fought for Novopavlivka, attacked Dobropillya, near Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vesele, Hruzke, Shakhove, Nove Shakhove, Novyi Donbas, Dorizhne, Zaporizhzhia, Bilytske, Pokrovsk, Sukhetske, Krasnyi Lyman, Myroliubivka, Novoekonomichne, Mykhailivka, Promin, Lysivka, Chunyshyne, Novoukrainka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske. Assault groups of the 55th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army infiltrated the center of Novopavlivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack in Rodynske.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Russian troops attacked Novopavlivka, near Kotliarivka, Horikhove, Novoukrainka, Filiya, Yalta, Zelenyi Hai, Ivanivka, Velykomykhailivka, Andriivka-Klevtsove, Oleksandrohrad, Sichneve, Maliivka, Sosnivka, Vorone, Verbove, and struck a bridge over the Vovcha River near Pokrovske. The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army captured Oleksiivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Ivanivka.
On the Huliaypole direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces hold their positions west of Malynivka.
Russian troops advanced east of Novomykolayivka, and attacked in the direction of Krasnohirske, Uspenivka, near Poltavka, Novohryhorivka, Malynivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian troops attacked near Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Stepove, Kamianske, Stepnohirsk, Plavni, Prymorske, and unsuccessfully tried to recapture Mali Shcherbaky.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattack near Prymorske and Stepnohirsk.
General conclusion:
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops continue attempts to force the Oskil River, striking bridges with artillery and UAVs.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian troops try to destroy Ukrainian logistics, using road ambush drones.
Russian troops may use advances in the western part of Donetsk Oblast to begin an offensive operation in the Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, direction.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Russian troops reduced the use of transport vehicles. The enemy advanced in the Novopavlivka direction due to its manpower superiority.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops operate at a depth of more than 20 km from the front line, and the enemy’s best UAV operators work near Pokrovsk.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 184 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, the enemy launched 9 airstrikes.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, 17 combat engagements took place near Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Tykhe, Kamyanka, Kutkivka, and in the direction of Okhrymivka, Odradne, and Bolohivka.
On the Kupyansk direction, 6 Russian attacks took place. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy’s assault actions in the areas of Stepova Novoselivka and Petropavlivka. Counter-sabotage measures continue in the city of Kupyansk and its surroundings—units of the 10th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces detect enemy infantry groups, block their advance, and destroy them.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 7 times, trying to advance in the areas of Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, Novoselivka, and Derylove.
On the Sloviansk direction, 10 enemy attacks were repelled. Units of the occupiers tried to advance in the areas of Serebrianka, Yampil, Dronivka, Vyimka, and Fedorivka.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, the enemy carried out 26 attacks in the direction of Predtechyne, in the areas of Bila Hora, Pleshchiivka, Shcherbynivka, Kleban-Byk, Oleksandro-Kalynove, and Rusyn Yar.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 56 aggressor assault and offensive actions were stopped in the areas of Volodymyrivka, Nykanorivka, Myroliubivka, Novoekonomichne, Promin, Lysivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Chunishyne, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Horikhove, and Filiya.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 30 enemy attacks near Zelenyi Hai, Ivanivka, Oleksandrohrad, Sichneve, Sosnivka, Oleksiivka, Novomykolayivka, Novohryhorivka, Malynivka, and Poltavka.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy advanced 5 times, trying to operate in the areas of Kamianske, Plavni, and Stepove.
On the Prydniprovske direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks.
Supporting operation:
The cyber forces of Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked the infrastructure of the Russian regional internet provider Orion Telecom.
The UAV Systems Forces of Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Saratov Oil Refinery, the Balashovska 500 kV substation near Uriupinsk.
The airports of Volgograd and Saratov were closed.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 1434th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army and the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade operate near Novomykolayivka and Varachyne, the 810th Separate Marine Brigade operates near Kindrativka, and the 1st Battalion of the 119th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division and the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps operate in Yunakivka.
The 1009th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army and the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps attack in Vovchansk. The 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division struck a bridge in Ambarne.
The 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army strikes Ukrainian positions near Pishchane.
The 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions north of Sviato-Pokrovske.
The 13th Assault Detachment “Rusichi” (former 13th Assault Detachment of Wagner PMC) of the 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions near Pleshchiivka, the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army strikes near Ivanopillya, and the 163rd Tank Regiment of the division and the 57th Separate SOF Company of the 8th Combined Arms Army strike in Volodymyrivka.
The 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army advances along the T0515 highway north of Pokrovsk.
The 91st Rifle Regiment of the 29th Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The 16th Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Protection Brigade operates in the Vremivka direction. The 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions near Zelenyi Hai.
The 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions along the T0408 Novodanylivka – Orikhiv highway.
Possible operation situation developments:
According to the assessment of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, the enemy will not be able to achieve the goal of the so-called special military operation to capture the entire Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2025. Provided current dynamics of combat operations are maintained, the enemy will be able to capture Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Kupyansk no earlier than the end of the year and reach the close approaches to Zaporizhzhia and the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by early winter.
On the Kupyansk direction, the forward units of the 6th Combined Arms Army will try to bypass Kupyansk as deeply as possible, primarily from the west and northwest in the direction of Radkivka – Myrne, in the general direction of the Chuhuiv – Kupyansk highway and take control of the Mala Shapkivka – Velyka Shapkivka – Kindrashivka – Tyshchenkivka area. Holding the Petropavlivka – Pishchane – Kolisnykivka – Kivsharivka area by the 10th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces depends on the outcome of the battles in the Kupyansk area, therefore even the loss of Kupyansk will not lead to the loss of logistics for the tactical group of Ukrainian Defense Forces operating east of the Oskil River.
On the Lyman direction, troops of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will push into the area of Yarova – Novoselivka – Drobysheve – Pryshyb and will try to block Lyman from the northwest, cutting all main routes that do not cross the Siverskyi Donets River and reach the river on the widest possible front.
The ability of the 11th Army Corps to hold the Novoselivka – Stavky line is acquiring important operational significance.
Russian troops will try to cut off the H20 Kostyantynivka – Sloviansk highway. For this purpose, they will attack in the directions of Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka and Druzhkivka, complicating the logistics of the 19th Combined Arms Corps of the Defense Forces in Kostyantynivka, thereby contributing to the capture of the “fortress belt.” The enemy command prepares an offensive on Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka, which involves delivering concentric strikes simultaneously from the northeast, from the direction of Chasiv Yar, from the southeast, from the direction of Toretsk and the Kleban-Byk reservoir, and from the southwest, from the Poltavka – Novoolenivka line.
In the Dobropillya area, troops of the 51st Combined Arms Army will try to completely push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Sofiivka – Volodymyrivka – Pankivka – Shakhove area. The simultaneous activation of the offensive of the troops of the 2nd Combined Arms Army of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping in the areas of Zvirove, Troyanda, and in the direction of Chunyshyne – Novopavlivka indicates the enemy command’s intention to adhere to its plan for the Pokrovsk offensive operation going forward. The enemy will assault Pokrovsk with the main forces of the 2nd Combined Arms Army.
Taking advantage of the very weak coordination between the headquarters of the 51st and 8th Combined Arms Armies of the enemy, significant problems with the combat capability of its troops in the Dobropillya area, and the inability to break through to the western outskirts of Shakhove, Ukrainian Defense Forces can create conditions for the complete clearing of the enemy’s 51st Combined Arms Army bridgehead on the Kazennyi Torets River north of Myrnohrad and thereby remove the threat of encirclement of the Pokrovsk defense area.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will be forced to stretch the front, aiming to straighten its line in the northern direction, accelerating the advance of its left flank. The 5th Combined Arms Army will attack on a wide front in the directions of Komyshuvakha – Ternove and Zaporizhzhia – Berezove, in addition to continuing to fight for Novoivanivka and Novomykolayivka, while attempting to advance north of Olhivske.
On the Orikhiv direction, the “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue a local offensive operation, attempting to break through along the left bank of the Dnipro River from the Plavni – Kamianske line toward Stepnohirsk and from the Stepove – Mali Shcherbaky line in the northern direction.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 16.10.25
Personnel - almost 1,127 300 (+1,080);
Tanks – 11,261 (+2);
Armored combat vehicles ‒ 23,384 (+9);
Artillery systems – 33,713 (+42);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,520 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,227 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 64,468 (+139);
Aircraft - 427 (0);
Helicopters – 346 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 70,437 (+416);
Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 3,859 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Since the evening of October 15, Russian forces launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, employing 320 strike drones of various types and 37 air- and ground-based missiles, including 200 Shahed, 120 other types of UAVs, two Kinzhal missiles, 26 Iskander-M/KN-23, two Iskander-K, and seven Kh-59. Air Defense destroyed or suppressed 283 drones and 5 missiles. However, 14 missiles and 37 drones struck targets in 14 locations, with fragments falling in two more. The heaviest attacks targeted Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts. As of 10 AM, the assault was ongoing.
Following the massive Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, emergency power outages began across Ukraine. According to Ukrenergo and energy companies, emergency restrictions were already in effect in Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Poltava Oblasts, and Kyiv by the morning. By the evening, emergency blackouts had been implemented nationwide.
On the night of October 15 to 16, Russians attacked a gas production facility in Poltava Oblast, forcing an immediate halt to its operations.
Emergency power outages in Ukraine could last for approximately another week, and longer in certain regions, stated Vitaliy Zaichenko, Head of Ukrenergo. He noted that the Russians have shifted their strike tactics against energy infrastructure, aiming to gradually disable the system. Despite the scale of the attacks, the energy system has endured the stress, only once nearing collapse. Zaichenko highlighted that Russia began systematic strikes in the autumn—initially against distribution substations and railway infrastructure, and subsequently against power plants, mainly in border regions.
On the evening of October 15, Russian troops launched a massive strike drone attack on Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast, hitting a Nova Poshta terminal, an apartment building, and other civilian infrastructure. Preliminary reports indicated two people were injured. The occupiers also targeted one of Chernihiv’s enterprises.
On the morning of October 16, Russia executed a large-scale combined strike on Ukraine, during which two ballistic missiles hit the territory of a training unit belonging to the Ukrainian Armed Forces Ground Forces, located in a rear and relatively stable region. Operational Command “Pivden (South)” reported that despite timely warnings, moving personnel to shelters, and other safety measures, casualties were unavoidable. The training center was later confirmed to be located in Kirovohrad Oblast.
A Russian drone attacked a mobile Ukrposhta post office near the village of Shyroka Balka, Kherson Oblast, injuring the driver.
Around 11:00 AM, Russian military forces shelled Kherson, injuring two 78-year-old residents, a man and a woman. Russian troops shelled the city center of Kherson around 3 PM, killing a local resident. Around 1 PM, shelling of the Dnipro District of Kherson wounded a 55-year-old local resident.
As of 6 PM, repair efforts continue in Kharkiv Oblast to eliminate the consequences of the massive Russian attack on energy and gas infrastructure, leaving 400 consumers without gas service.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree appointing Olha Reshetylova (Kobylynska) as the Military Ombudsman. She is the first person in Ukraine’s history to hold this position. The Office of the Military Ombudsman will commence operations after all legal requirements are met, including the registration of the legal entity, special background checks for leadership candidates, and the establishment of official documentation and registration in state systems.