Russia's war on Ukraine. 16.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted 11 assaults in the areas of Vovchansk and Starytsya.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 28 attacks by the occupiers. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Kucherivka, Novoosynove, Hrushivka, Pishchane, Hlushkivka, Lozova, Kruhlyakivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, and Vyshneve. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 16 times, trying to penetrate Ukrainian defenses near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Zarichne, and Torske. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 3 times in the areas of Kalynivka, Stupochky, and Predtechyne. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, with air support, carried out 9 attacks near Toretsk, Dachne, and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 26 enemy attacks toward Novotroitske, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krasnyi Yar, and Krutyi Yar. The highest concentration of enemy attacks occurred near Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 40 attacks. The occupiers most actively attempted to advance in the areas of Novodmytrivka and Heorhiivka. Additionally, the enemy attacked in the directions of Kreminna Balka, Tsukuryne, Novoselydivka, Kostyantynivka, Antonivka, and Katerynivka. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy carried out 2 assaults in the areas of Rozdolne and Bohoyavlenka, actively employing assault and bomber aviation. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers attacked toward Mala Tokmachka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian invaders tried 5 times to displace Ukrainian Defense Forces units from their positions, received a strong response, and suffered losses.
On the Volyn and Polissya directions, there were no signs of enemy offensive group formations.
On the border with Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts, the enemy actively uses artillery and aviation from the Russian territory to target Ukrainian towns and villages.
General conclusion:
The enemy's anti-tank defense in Kursk Oblast is poorly organized, leading to accidental harm to civilians and the death of military personnel: during nighttime movement, a Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations rescue vehicle crashed into "dragon's teeth" on a road in the Rylsk district of Kursk Oblast and was seriously damaged. Coordination between the Counterterrorist Operation command, engineering units, and the local population is extremely poor.
Russian forces attempt to take advantage of the dry weather in Donetsk Oblast, increasing the intensity of strikes and trying to make as much progress as possible in the Chasiv Yar area before winter.
Russian forces have reduced the intensity of assaults near Chasiv Yar but increased activity near Toretsk.
Ukrainian defensive positions in Toretsk's multi-story buildings complicate the enemy's advance.
Russian forces regularly launch missile and air strikes, conduct counter-battery fire, and engage in offensive actions in southern Ukraine, but do not amass forces for large-scale offensive operations in this region. The enemy is most active in southern Ukraine, in the area between Velyka Novosilka and Pryiutne, near Orikhiv and Huliaypole. The enemy is transferring personnel to forward positions and preparing to assault Robotyne, but the arrival of additional forces from other front sectors to this area has not been observed.
The Dnipro-Bugh estuary is heavily mined due to the large number of mines that ended up in the area after Russian forces destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station. Russian forces attempt to transport small boats by land to this area.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 171 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces are advancing toward a forest strip northwest of Ulanok, where units from the 40th and 810th Separate Marines Brigades, along with the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps, attack on the Borki-Ozerki line, attempting to bypass "Siversk" OTG southeast of Sudzha. The enemy is attempting to capture Leonidovo and advance into the fields southeast of Olgovka.
Fighting continues near Tolstyi Luh, Zelionyi Put, Nizhniy Klin, Liubimovka, Novoivanovka, Ruskaya Konopelka, Borki, and Novyi Put.
On the Kharkiv direction, "Kharkiv" OTG units at the border of Belgorod and Kharkiv oblasts near Zhuravlivka repelled an attack by the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, which attempted to support an enemy offensive in the Hlyboke-Lyptsi area.
Russian forces continued localized attacks near Vovchansk, Tykhe, and Starytsya. Russian reconnaissance and special forces groups operate in and around Vovchansk, while the enemy intensively shells the Vovchansk-Lyptsi road, complicating "Kharkiv" OTG logistics in the area.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced in the southeastern part of Kolisnykivka, cutting off the Kupiansk-Borova highway near Kruhlyakivka. They continued offensives near Synkivka, Kucherivka, Pervomayske, Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Lozova, Novoosynove, Pishchane, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Stepova Novoselivka, and Hrushivka.
A mandatory evacuation was announced for all Ukrainian citizens living in Kupyansk, Kindrashivka, Kurylivka, and Borova communities due to the "worsening military situation."
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced 1 km from Zhuravka ravine toward Makiivka and 1.4 km toward Terny, and attacked near Vyshneve, Novoyehorivka, Makiivka, Novolyubivka, Hrekivka, Yampolivka, Nevske, Torske, Terny, and Zarichne.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Verkhnyokamianske, but without success.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar, launched attacks in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Kalynivka, Predtechyne, and Dyliivka, and advanced in the western part of Kalynivka and west of Ivanivske along the T0504 Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka highway.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced west of New York and within Toretsk, controlling 42% of the town, and attacked near Toretsk, Dachne, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the western outskirts of Krasnyi Yar, entered the Selydivka Concrete Plant on the eastern edge of the town, and advanced toward the outskirts of Lysivka and 800 meters near Tsukuryne. They continued offensive actions in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Promin, Hrodivka, Novotroitske, Krasnyi Yar, Selydove, Krutyi Yar, Lysivka, Tsukuryne, Mykolaivka, Sukhyi Yar, Kreminna Balka, Novodmytrivka, Novoselydivka, Izmailivka, Hirnyk, Zoryane, Kurakhivka, and Novopavlivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces attacked in the areas of Maksymilianivka and Heorhiivka but made no progress. The enemy continued offensive actions in the areas of Kostyantynivka, Antonivka, Katerynivka, Vodyane, and Bohoyavlenka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced in the fields north of Novodonetske and north of Levadne, and launched attacks toward Rozdolne.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked in the areas of Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Russian forces recently advanced onto islands in the Dnipro River delta and conducted assault operations on the left bank and the islands. Fighting continues for the islands of Velykyi Potyomkin and Kruhlik.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 2 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 12 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Units of the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet that had previously operated near Zolota Nyva, were spotted in the area of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast. The 22nd Separate SOF Brigade operates in the Glushkovo district.
Units of the "Siberia" Volunteer Cossack Brigade are active near Riznykivka.
The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army is advancing in the direction of Bohoyavlenka. Units from the 14th Separate SOF Brigade, the 200th Artillery Brigade, and the 14th Engineer Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army are also involved on the Bohoyavlenka direction.
Units of the 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army operate near Kamianske, while the 1141st Artillery Regiment of the 7th Airborne Division is active near Verbove.
The 33rd BARS unit and the 80th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps operate on the Kherson direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 16.10.24
Personnel - almost 672,850 (+1,450);
Tanks 8,997 (+9);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,969 (+30);
Artillery systems – 19,459 (+29);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,231 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 978 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,732 (+78);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 17,050 (+31);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,620 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of October 16, Russians attacked Ukraine with 136 combat drones. The overall results of the air battle were 68 drones destroyed, 64 lost in unknown locations, two returned to Russia, and two hit their targets. Additionally, between 7:00 p.m. on October 15 and the morning of October 16, Russians struck Donetsk region with an S-300/400 surface-to-air guided missile and Chernihiv region with a Kh-59 guided aviation missile.
During the night, Russian occupiers struck an industrial facility in Ternopil Oblast, resulting in a large fire. 45 rescuers with 12 pieces of specialized equipment and 12 police officers with 4 special vehicles were involved in the cleanup efforts. There were no casualties or injuries.
Around 5:00 p.m., Russian forces shelled Bilozerka in Kherson region, targeting residential areas. Two women, aged 59 and 60, were injured in the shelling.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, 23 civilian vessels have been damaged by Russian military attacks, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
28% of Ukrainians support holding presidential or parliamentary elections before the end of the war, while 56% are against it, according to a Razumkov Center poll conducted between September 20 and 26, 2024.
83% of Ukrainians believe in Ukraine's victory, while 11% do not. Among those who believe in victory, 38% see it as the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory and the restoration of borders as of January 2014. Another 17.5% see victory in the destruction of the Russian army and the promotion of internal uprisings or the dissolution of Russia. 17% view victory as the restoration of the status quo as of February 23, 2022. Additionally, 7.5% see victory as the expulsion of Russian troops from all of Ukraine except Crimea, while 8% believe victory means the end of the war, even if Russian forces remain on territories captured after February 24, 2022.
Almost 90% of Ukrainians believe that the temporarily occupied Crimea should be returned to Ukrainian control, according to data presented by Tamila Tasheva, the Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, during the presentation of the research "Cognitive De-occupation of Crimea."