Russia's war on Ukraine. 16.09.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted an assault near Vovchansk. Enemy aviation launched guided bomb (KAB) strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Ruska Lozova.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 20 Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 24 times, attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses near Druzhelyubivka, Kovalivka, Tverdokhlibove, Nevske, Makiivka, Terny, and Novosadove. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 12 assault actions by Russian invaders near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, and Ivano-Dariivka. Enemy aviation actively struck communities in Siversk, Mykolaivka, and Pereyizne. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked three times in the areas of Stupochky and Kurdyumivka. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, carried out 16 attacks near Druzhba, Nelipivka, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 36 Russian assault and offensive actions towards Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretsk, Zelene Pole, Novooleksandrivka, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Marynivka, and Mykhailivka. The highest concentration of enemy attacks was near Hrodivka and Novohrodivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 42 attacks, with the enemy's most active attempts to advance in the areas of Kostyantynivka and Heorhiivka. Additionally, the enemy attacked towards Ukrainsk, Dolynivka, Katerynivka, Selydove, and Zhelanne Druhe. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 10 assaults on Ukrainian Defense Forces positions in the areas of Vodyane, Katerynivka, Solodke, and Makarivka, actively deploying assault and bomber aviation. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers attacked towards Novodarivka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian invaders attempted to displace Ukrainian Defense Forces units from their positions 8 times but faced strong resistance and suffered losses.
On the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of enemy offensive group formations were detected.
Along the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy, from Russian territory, actively uses artillery and aviation against Ukrainian towns and villages.
The operation in Kursk Oblast continues.
General conclusion:
High activity of UAVs by Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Kharkiv direction complicates the logistics of the forward Russian units. Russian and Ukrainian forces have UAV parity in this sector.
The rate of Russian guided bomb strikes continues to decline over the past two weeks, as Russian forces have lost a significant number of long-range reconnaissance UAVs.
In northern Kharkiv Oblast, logistical tasks are being performed by units composed of conscripted soldiers.
The pace of the Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has slowed due to a lack of resources for conducting simultaneous offensive actions on multiple fronts. The enemy is concentrating on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions and countering the Ukrainian Defense Forces' incursions into Kursk Oblast.
The Russian advance on the Pokrovsk direction has slowed. The enemy’s "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping needs to strengthen its rear and adjust logistics.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy has not yet managed to break through the barrier along the Zhuravka and Kazennyi Torets rivers. The most threatening areas in this regard are near Novohrodivka, where the enemy operates on both sides of the Avdiivka–Pokrovsk railway, and Hrodivka.
In the Selydove area, the situation is gradually becoming dangerous for the “Tavriya” OSG. The enemy has fully occupied Halytsynivka, is fighting for Zhelanne Pershe and Ukrainsk, and has advanced towards Krasnohorivka–Hostre and Krasnohorivka–Oleksandropil. The situation between Selydove and Hirnyk is also extremely dangerous. If the enemy continues advancing in this area, the situation could become catastrophic for the entire flank of Tavriya southeast of Pokrovsk. If the enemy breaks through to the Tsukuryno and/or Voznesenka areas, the Tavriya group will be forced to retreat far beyond the Vovcha River.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 173 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, "Siversk" OTG advanced in the Glushkovo district of Kursk Oblast to the southeastern outskirts of Volfino, continuing their offensive on the southern outskirts of Vesioloe, near Novyi Put, Medvezhie, in Liubimovka, near Malaya Loknya.
Russian troops are trying to retake Vesioloe, advancing in the fields east of 10 Let Oktyabrya, west of Liubimovka. The 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division and units of the 106th Airborne Division are defending in the Glushkovo district of Kursk Oblast. The 382nd Separate Marines Battalion of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, along with the "Arbat" Special Purpose Battalion of the "International Volunteer Brigade Piatnashka," the Ossetian "Sarmat" Battalion (all part of the so-called "Wild Division of Donbas"), recaptured Borki.
On the Kharkiv direction, fighting continued near Hlyboke and Vovchansk, but there were no changes on the front line. Russian forces are increasing UAV reconnaissance activity near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces made slight advances northwest of Svatove, north of Stelmakhivka, and continued offensive actions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Stelmakhivka, and toward Lozova, Druzhelyubivka, Kovalivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Cherneshchyna.
The enemy, using the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division and 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army, is actively pushing towards the Oskil River along the Pishchane (lower)–Kruhlyakivka and Pishchane (lower)–Kolisnykivka routes. They have significantly expanded their penetration near Pishchane and are close to taking control of the Borova–Kupyansk highway along the left bank of the Oskil River. The enemy forward units are within 3 km from Kruhlyakivka and 2.5–2.8 km from Kolisnykivka. The enemy is also advancing on the Synkivka–Petropavlivka direction between Synkivka and the railway leading north to Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi railway junction.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Novosadove, Makiivka, Nevske, Terny, Zarichne, and Serebryanka.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces advanced west of Zolotarivka, conducting offensive actions near Bilohorivka, close to Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, and Ivano-Dariivka. The 3rd Army Corps is launching strikes with TOS-1A near Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar but were unsuccessful. The enemy attacked in the area of Andriivka and toward Stupochky. Units of the 98th Airborne Division, 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps, and the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army are consolidating in Chasiv Yar near O. Koshovoho Street and along the Kalynivka–Ridkodubya direction. The bridgehead on the western bank of the ‘‘Siversky Donets–Donbas” canal is the size of a company stronghold, but further Russian attempts to merge it with the bridgehead in the "Pivnichnyi" neighborhood will worsen the tactical situation for Ukrainian forces in Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced near Toretsk, close to Dachne, Druzhba, Nelipivka, and Shcherbynivka, moving 600 meters closer to the center of Toretsk. The enemy is making maximum efforts to advance in Toretsk along Dzerzhynskyi Street, operating from the Pivnichnyi area. Intense battles are ongoing near the bakery and the penal colony. The main goal of the 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army and the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army is to break through to the center of Toretsk from the Pivnichnyi and Zalizne directions, but the enemy’s assault group has yet to succeed, shifting its focus closer to Pivnichnyi.
Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacked in the Nelipivka–New York direction toward Sportyvna Street, retreating to the northern part of New York and continuing to hold a small portion of the village on both sides of Kyivska Street. Most of New York remains under enemy control.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in Hrodivka and are expected to reach the Zhuravka River soon, east of Selydove, on the southwestern outskirts of Ukrainsk, south and east of the town. The enemy continued advancing in the areas of Sukha Balka, Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Novooleksandrivka, Hrodivka, Novotoretsk, Krasnyi Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk, and attacked near Selydove, Ukrainsk, Dolynivka, Novohrodivka, Marynivka, Mykhailivka, Zhelanne Pershe, Zhelanne Druhe, and Lisivka.
The enemy managed to slightly expand its penetration in the area of Novohrodivka in the western and southwestern directions, but they have yet to secure positions near Lisivka and Sukhyi Yar. Operational groupings "Tsentr (Center)" and "Yug (South)" are working to close the adjacent flanks and completely push Ukrainian forces beyond the Vovcha River, threatening an encirclement from the north and south.
Ukrainian forces hold the Hirnyk–Zhelanne Druhe–Oleksandropil–Kurakhivka area, ensuring the stability of their defense along the Vovcha River at the crossing points, and maintaining logistical support and the possibility of retreating to the other side of the river if necessary. The forward units of "Tavriya" OSG are gradually retreating west of Nevelske, conducting successful rear-guard actions against the enemy.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced in eastern Maksymilianivka, carried out offensive actions near Heorhiivka and Hostre, northeast of Vodyane, and attacked near Katerynivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vuhledar.
Ukrainian forces counterattacked near the Pivdennodonbaska mine №3. The intensity of fighting in this area is decreasing.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Zolota Nyva, Makarivka, and Novodarivka but failed.
On the Orikhiv direction, a reconnaissance group of the 4th Battalion of the 58th Army conducted a raid on Ukrainian positions near Kamianske. Russian forces are taking an operational pause to reorganize remaining troops in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
On the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian forces intensified their offensive on the islands in the Dnipro River delta, directing additional forces to strengthen control over the delta.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 5 ships, 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 32 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Combined Arms Army is active on the Prydniprovskiy direction.
The 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division operates in Snagost, and the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet attacks near Daryino.
The 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army provides support for the combat operations of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army near Antonivka. Aviation of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army strikes Ukrainian positions in Bohoyavlenka.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
The enemy's command on the theater of operations must conduct strategic regrouping between operational zones and reinforce the "Tsentr (Center)"Operational Grouping on the Toretsk direction with at least a corps. For this purpose, the 3rd Army Corps may be redeployed to this direction from the Kramatorsk direction, or the main forces of the 51st Army may be concentrated.
"Tavriya" OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the "Tavriya" OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
The enemy will likely attempt to encircle “Tavriya” OSG units on the eastern bridgehead of the Vovcha River, advancing towards Nevelske. They plan to engage the main forces of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army to secure the right flank of the 2nd Combined Arms Army in the Selidove area along the Hirnyk-Kurakhivka line. Meanwhile, the 2nd Combined Arms Army will continue to push its offensive towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
We should expect enemy attempts to repeat the tactical maneuver they used at the beginning of the assault on Chasiv Yar: concentrating a large grouping of forces in a narrow sector, creating high tactical density in their formations, while deploying reserves dispersed along the entire front. Until then, the enemy will continue its frontal assault towards Pokrovsk from the southeast, advancing along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway in a relatively narrow corridor (up to 5 km wide) between the Solonenka and Zhuravka rivers.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 16.09.24
Personnel - almost 634,860 (+1,060);
Tanks 8,683 (+3);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,071 (+8);
Artillery systems – 18,123 (+14);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,187 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 947 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,712 (+28);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 15,263 (+29);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,592 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
In the first half of September, the Russians used more than 640 Shahed drones against Ukraine - Zelensky.
On the night of September 16, the enemy attacked Ukraine with 56 Shahed-131/136 UAVs. Air defense destroyed 53 of them, with three lost in location. The main direction of the enemy’s attack this time was Kyiv Oblast.
In Kyiv Oblast, on the night of September 16, a woman was injured as a result of the falling debris from downed Russian drones, and five private houses and five cars were damaged.
The enemy once again carried out numerous strikes on the Semenivka community of Novhorod-Siverskyi district, Chernihiv Oblast. As a result of the shelling in a border village, over 30 buildings were damaged by fire. Six local residents, mostly elderly, requested evacuation from the police.
As a result of the strike on Kharkiv on September 15, 14 residents were hospitalized, with a child and an elderly man currently in critical condition.
Over the past day, Russian troops carried out 66 attacks using various types of weapons on border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts, resulting in a total of 213 explosions.
During the day, Russian forces launched 145 strikes on 11 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Six reports of damage to residential buildings and infrastructure facilities were received. Civilians were not harmed.
The day before, Ukrainian naval forces destroyed a sea mine that had washed ashore in Odesa Oblast.
In temporarily occupied Crimea, the problem of water shortages is worsening – the Taigan Reservoir in Bilohirsk district has lost its usable water volume. There is little chance of it being replenished next year, as it can only fill up if the Bilohirsk Reservoir, which is also almost dry, reaches at least 80% capacity. Considering the forecast of drought next year, there is a high likelihood that the required water level will not be reached by May 2025.
The Luhansk Oblast Military Administration reports: not having received promised repairs to the water supply systems, residents of Luhansk Oblast, destroyed by Russian occupiers, are forced to drill wells to access water. They are increasingly encountering mine waters, which are not being pumped out by the so-called "LNR." There have already been multiple cases of poisoning from this water.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has appealed to the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross, asking them to participate in humanitarian response efforts in those areas of the Kursk Oblast of Russia currently controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, called the invitation a provocation and stated that Russia expects such provocative statements not to be taken seriously by their recipients.