Russia's war on Ukraine. 16.07.25
Operational situation
On the Northern Slobozhansky direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in the Tetkino direction, near Novyi Put, advanced north of Kindrativka, and counterattacked near Kindrativka and Andriivka.
Russian troops try to advance near Bezsalivka; the 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Machine Gun – Artillery Division of the 68th Army Corps advances near Ryzhivka; the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade attacks near Varachyne.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, Russian troops continued assaults near Zelene and Vovchansk, attacked near Dehtyarne, Milove, Kindrashivka, Stroyivka, Kamyanka, Novoyehorivka, in the direction of Petropavlivka, Pishchane. They advanced north of Krasne Pershe, tried to advance west of Kamyanka, south of Dovhenke, and west of Stepova Novoselivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked west of Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops advanced northeast of Hrekivka, attacked near Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Zelenyi Hai, in the direction of Novoserhiyivka, Cherneshchyna, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Bohuslavka, Hrekivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian troops attacked in the direction of Shandryholove, Serednie, Karpivka, Novomykhailivka, Hlushchenkove, Novyi Myr, Ridkodub, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Torske.
On the Siversk direction, Russian troops attacked near Serebrianka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Vyiimka, and Ivano-Dariivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops attacked Chasiv Yar, near Predtechyne, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, the 1465th Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army captured Novospaske. Russian troops tried to advance northwest of Yablunivka, southeast of Rusyn Yar, south and northwest of Novospaske, east of Rusyn Yar, northwest, south and east of Yablunivka, north of Shevchenkove, southwest of Dyliivka, attacked near Toretsk, Dyliivka, Poltavka, Popiv Yar, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Shcherbynivka, in the direction of Katerynivka, Stepanivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Popiv Yar and Poltavka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops captured Novotoretske, advanced southeast of Mayak, west of Razyne, west of Novoekonomichne, conduct battles for Rodynske, Krasnyi Lyman, attacked in the direction of Pokrovsk, near Volodymyrivka, Boykivka, Fedorivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Mykolaivka, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Chunyshyne, Novoukrainka, Kotlyne, Zvirove, and Udachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army captured Voskresenka. Russian troops conduct battles for Hrushivske, tried to advance northeast of Tovste, northwest of Myrne, attacked in the direction of Novopavlivka, near Muravka, Oleksiivka, Dachne, Zaporizhzhia, Komar, Fedorivka, Yalta, Perebudova, Filiya, Piddubne, Myrne, Novokhatske, Hrushivske, Zelene Pole, Novosilka, Novopil, in the direction of Lisne, Novosilka, Oleksandrohrad, Vilne Pole, Shevchenkove, Komyshuvakha, Maliivka, Temyrivka.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian troops tried to advance north of Malynivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian troops attacked near Kamyanske and Plavni.
On the Prydniprovske direction, Russian troops attacked near the Antonivskyi Bridge and near the Zabych and Kozulytskyi islands.
General conclusion:
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops deliver the main blow on the eastern flank.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 171 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, 21 combat engagements took place. In addition, the enemy conducted 10 air strikes.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 enemy attacks near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe, and Stroyivka.
On the Kupyansk direction, 5 attacks by the occupiers occurred. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions in the areas of Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Pishchane, and towards Kupyansk.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 25 times, trying to advance near the settlements of Novyi Myr, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, and towards Shandryholove and Serebrianka.
On the Siversk direction, 3 assaults by occupation forces were repelled near Hryhorivka and Vyiimka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, 7 combat engagements were recorded in the areas of Predtechyne, Bila Hora, and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 11 attacks near Dyliivka, Toretsk, Novospaske, and Rusyn Yar.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 60 aggressor assaults were stopped in the areas of Mykolaivka, Shevchenko, Molodetske, Orikhove, Popiv Yar, Novoekonomichne, Myroliubivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Zvirove, Udachne, Oleksiivka, and towards the settlements of Rodynske, Pokrovsk, Muravka Filiya, and Dachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 27 enemy attempts to break through defensive lines in the areas of the settlements of Zaporizhzhia, Piddubne, Lisne, Myrne, Maliivka, Shevchenko, Novosilka, Zelene Pole, and towards the settlements of Komyshuvakha, Temyrivka, Novokhatske.
On the Huliaypole direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully stopped an enemy assault near Malynivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, one enemy assault was repelled in the Novodanylivka area.
On the Prydniprovske direction, 8 occupier attacks were repelled in the area of the Antonivskyi Bridge and near the Kozulytskyi and Zabych islands.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted UAV strikes on enemy concentration areas in the vicinity of the colony in Berdiansk and the Slaviansk Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 382nd Separate Marine Battalion of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade, the 155th Separate Marine Brigade, and the 56th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division operate in northern Sumy Oblast, while the 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade operates near Yablunivka.
The 16th Separate SOF Brigade operates on the Lyman direction.
The 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army operates near Sofiivka.
The 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army operates on the Novopavlivka direction.
The 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army advances towards Polohy.
Possible operation situation developments:
According to the estimates of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, the enemy will not be able to achieve the Kremlin's goal of capturing the entire Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2025. The new operational task of the enemy grouping in the theater of military operations is to advance to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and create a buffer zone 10 km deep. Full occupation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts is possible no earlier than February 2028, provided current rates of advancement are maintained.
On the Northern Slobozhansky direction, the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping is trying to reach the Mala Korchakivka – Nova Sich – Maryinka – Sadky line.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, in the near future, the command of the Russian “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its recent tactical success and try to seize the area of Mala Shapkivka – Kindrashivka – Tyshchenivka – Velyka Shapkivka, and break through directly to the northern outskirts of Kupyansk, in the area of Moskovka. Russian troops unsuccessfully try to build crossings across the Vovcha River and cross it with crossing equipment.
The command of the enemy's "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping in cooperation with the right flank of “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping in the Southern Slobozhansky direction, will attempt to expand its bridgehead northeast of Velykyi Burluk and capture Hatnie before attacking the city. For this purpose, the troops will have to force water obstacles, including the Velykyi Burluk River on the Shevchenkove – Mykhailivka – Velykyi Burluk line. Villages located along the river will become a significant obstacle for Russian troops. The Vovchansk – Velykyi Burluk – Dvorichna line can become a powerful defensive line within Russia's buffer zone in northern Kharkiv Oblast if the enemy can combine its efforts from three directions in the medium and long term. The enemy cannot launch an offensive in the direction of Kupyansk due to complex logistical measures that must be carried out to accumulate troops on the western bank of the Oskil River. Russian troops did not enter Myrove and Sobolivka.
On the Lyman direction, the forces of the Russian “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to reach the line of Karlivka – Shandryholove – Drobysheve, while simultaneously advancing near Torske in an effort to enter Lyman from the east. The “Starobilsk” Operational-Tactical Group (OTG) will be forced to withdraw from the area of Kopani – Novoyehorivka – Druzhelyubivka – Cherneshchyna, in response to the enemy’s advance along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in the direction of Bilohorivka – Serebrianka, within the operational zone of the neighboring 3rd Combined Arms Army of the “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping.
On the Siversk direction, the command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will attempt to eliminate the Siversk salient held by "Khortytsia" OSG and break through towards the Sloviansk – Kramatorsk agglomeration. The 3rd Combined Arms Army will try to break through to the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River between Yampil and Hryhorivka, and from the southeast – toward Siversk. One should expect a revitalization of combat operations in the south-to-north direction with the enemy reaching the eastern outskirts of Siversk. The enemy will not be able to achieve its goal without reinforcing its grouping in that direction (primarily with the 106th Airborne Division).
On the Kramatorsk direction, the command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping and the 3rd Army may shift the direction of their main strike to the north of Chasiv Yar and launch an offensive on both sides of the Bakhmut–Sloviansk road, along the directions of Orikhovo-Vasylivka–Minkivka and Blahodatne–Pryvillya. This would allow them to break through to the immediate approaches to Sloviansk directly from the southeast and create a real threat of a deep envelopment of the right flank of the “Starobilsk” Operational Tactical Group (OTG). If the enemy succeeds in achieving operational surprise along these directions and advances to tactical depth, the situation in the Kolodyazi–Hryhorivka section on the Lyman direction will deteriorate significantly for the “Kharkiv” OTG.
The enemy's “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping will try to envelope Pokrovsk and bypass the “fortress belt” in Donetsk Oblast from the west in the coming months. The enemy command may attempt to exploit the penetration in the Pokrovsk–Toretsk sector to envelop Pokrovsk from the northeast and north and to bypass the defenses of the “Khortytsia” Operational and Strategic Grouping (OSG) in Kostyantynivka from the southwest and west. Further Russian advance north and west of the Razyne directly depends on the combat capability of its units (the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army, the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps). Enemy troops will have to force the Kazennyi Torets River in multiple sections to advance west of Razyne and capture villages along the Pokrovsk – Oleksandrivka line to completely cut off Ukrainian logistics
An envelopment of Pokrovsk from the northeast requires the enemy to significantly advance in the direction of Rodynske, capture it, and establish a powerful defense area there. This will enable attacks on Pokrovsk or advancement to Novooleksandrivka with the aim of cutting off the M30 Pokrovsk – Pavlohrad highway and forcing the “Khortytsia” OSG to withdraw from Pokrovsk under threat of encirclement. Other options for enemy actions include advancing north of Udachne or Kotlyne with the goal of cutting off the M30 highway if they manage to break through Ukrainian defenses, or attempting to wedge between Dobropillya and Kostyantynivka to bypass the "fortress belt" from the west. Russian troops will try to advance to Rodynske from positions in the Novoekonomichne area and force Ukrainian Defense Forces to withdraw from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad under threat of encirclement before resuming the offensive in the direction of Kostyantynivka. Russian troops will attack west of Razyne in the direction of Rodynske to cut off Ukrainian logistics along the T0515 Pokrovsk – Dobropillya highway.
The enemy's development of its operational success in the Novopavlivka direction threatens to destabilize the situation on the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, leading to negative consequences for Ukrainian Defense Forces in both operational and strategic terms. If the command of Ukrainian Defense Forces fails to stabilize the situation on this direction in the near future, then Ukraine’ military-political leadership should prepare for the opening of the Pavlohrad operational direction and the emergence of operational complications for the "Tavriya" OSG on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Russian troops have formed a wide and relatively flat front line in the border areas of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts from Malynivka to Zelenyi Hai, from which the enemy can attack in the direction of Huliaypole, Velykomykhaylivka, and Havrylivka. The “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping may intend to attack westward through Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, attempting to use the H15 Kurakhove – Zaporizhzhia highway for rapid advancement and to create convenient supply routes for the grouping from Donetsk. Enemy troops advancing west of Zelenyi Hai will have to force the Khaychur, Solona, Verkhnya Tersa, and Vovcha rivers, cross the T0408 Preobrazhennia – Novomykolayivka and T0401 Pokrovsk – Huliaypole highways, and capture several cities the size of Chasiv Yar, which could become a significant problem for the aggressor. As of today, a rapid advance of approximately 150 km from positions in Novokhatske to Zaporizhzhia is extremely unlikely, considering the current pace of the enemy's offensive.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 16.07.25
Personnel - almost 1,037 460 (+1,170);
Tanks – 11,025 (+3);
Armored combat vehicles ‒ 22,995 (+2);
Artillery systems – 30,395 (+49);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,440 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,196 (+2);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 55,229 (+82);
Aircraft - 421 (0);
Helicopters – 340 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 46,164 (+284);
Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 3,491 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of July 16, Russia attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M ballistic missile from Crimea and 400 Shahed-type attack UAVs and decoy drones. Air Defense Forces shot down 198 drones, and another 145 were suppressed by Electronic Warfare. Hits by 57 drones and 1 missile were recorded in 12 locations, with Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, and Vinnytsya among the main directions of attack.
On the night of July 16, Russia launched a massive attack on Vinnytsya, using 28 attack drones, about 18 of which were shot down. Hits on industrial and civilian infrastructure facilities were recorded, causing large-scale fires. Eight people were injured, five of them sustained burns, and two are in serious condition. At least 18 private houses were damaged, two of them significantly destroyed.
Russian drones hit the factory of the Polish company group Barlinek in Vinnytsia. The factory director stated that this was done intentionally, from three directions. There are wounded, two of them with severe burns, reported Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.
On the night of July 16, Russia launched a combined attack on Kryvyi Rih, using a ballistic missile and 28 Shahed-type loitering munitions. As a result of the strike, an industrial enterprise was destroyed, and energy infrastructure was damaged, leading to large-scale power and water supply outages in the city. The water supply system has been switched to backup power; a decrease in water pressure is possible. A 17-year-old boy was injured – he is in serious condition with an abdominal wound.
On the night of July 16, Russia attacked Kharkiv with Geran-2 type attack drones, resulting in three people being injured. At least 17 explosions occurred within 20 minutes, with the main impact on a civilian enterprise in the Kyivskyi district, where a large-scale fire broke out.
On the night of July 16, Russian loitering munitions attacked Izmail district of Odesa Oblast. As a result of the strike, an infrastructure facility was damaged and a fire broke out. No casualties were reported.
On the morning of July 16, Russian troops attacked Sumy and Sumy Community with attack drones. One of the drones hit an enterprise in the regional center, damaging an administrative building, vehicles, and two private houses. Another UAV fell on the territory of a private household. No casualties were reported.
On the morning of July 16, a woman was killed and five more people were injured as a result of artillery shelling of Nikopol. Two injured were hospitalized, one of them in serious condition. In the city, a bank, barbershop, shops, sports club, pharmacy, and residential buildings were damaged.
On the morning of July 16, in Kupyansk district, a Russian FPV drone hit an ambulance, injuring two medics — aged 53 and 59.
In Bilozerska Community in Kherson Oblast, a Russian drone attacked a combine harvester working in a field. Agricultural machinery burned down, and crops were also destroyed by fire. No workers were injured.
On the evening of July 16, Russian aviation struck the center of Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast, using a 500-kilogram aerial bomb. They hit the "Aurora" store; it was rush hour, evening on the city's central street. At least two people were killed, and 14 more were injured. People may remain under the rubble; a rescue operation is underway. About 30 retail outlets, six multi-story buildings, and eight cars were damaged.
On July 15, in the Kosmicheskyi microdistrict of Zaporizhzhia, 18 people were injured as a result of an evening attack by Russian drones, including two with disabilities and one Internally Displaced Person (IDP). Thirty-seven apartments in a multi-story building were damaged.
The Verkhovna Rada voted for the resignation of Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal after five years in office. The resolution was supported by 261 People's Deputies. The Prime Minister's resignation automatically means the dismissal of the entire government.