Russia's war on Ukraine. 16.05.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, fighting continues in Tetkino and near Novyi Put.
On the Belgorod direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Popovka and Grafovka.
On Sumy direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Veselivka and continue attacking near Bilovody and Vodolaha.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Bilovody.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Kudiivka, Hlyboke, in the direction of Vysoka Yaruha, near Vovchansk, Tykhe, and Vovchanski Khutory.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Kamyanka, Hlushkivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Novoheorhiivka, Hrekivka, Olkhivka, Novyi Myr, in the direction of Pishchane and Novoplatonivka.
On the Lyman direction, the 31st, 36th, and 37th Motorized Rifle Regiments, and the 19th Tank Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Combined Arms Army advanced in the center of Torske. Russian forces attacked near Ridkodub, Lypove, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodiazi, Lozova, Yampolivka, and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka, Horivka, and Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces are attempting to advance in Chasiv Yar, southwest of Hryhorivka, and attacked near Hryhorivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, Kurdyumivka, and in the direction of Markove.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked in Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced north of Toretsk, repelled enemy attacks near Zoria, Dyliivka, and in Toretsk, where they also counterattacked.
Russian forces advanced north and northwest of Druzhba, southwest of Zoria, east of Oleksandropil, in the southern part of Nova Poltavka, to the western outskirts of Yablunivka, north and northwest of Novoolenivka along the T0504 highway Pokrovsk–Kostyantynivka. The 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army advanced to Rusyn Yar, to the southern outskirts of Yablunivka, to Zoria, and Hnativka.
The enemy attacked near Toretsk, Krymske, Dyliivka, Druzhba, Stara Mykolaivka, Nova Poltavka, Novoolenivka, Romanivka, Yelyzavetivka, Kalynove, Yablunivka, Hnativka, Zoria, Shcherbynivka, Petrivka, in the direction of Popiv Yar.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are trying to advance northeast of Myrne, northeast, northwest, and southwest of Malynivka, north of Hrodivka, and attacked near Myroliubivka, Promin, in the direction of Mykolaivka, Novoekonomichne, near Lysivka, Shevchenkove, Zvirove, Kotlyne, and Udachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces advanced south of Novoserhiyivka, attempted to capture Novooleksandrivka, advanced northeast of Novoserhiyivka, in Troitske, Orikhove, in the center of Bahatyr, south of Odradne, and attacked near Novomykolayivka, Novoserhiyivka, Novooleksandrivka, Murivka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, Novoolenivka, Konstyantynopil, Andriivka, Oleksiivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Troitske, Orikhove, and Bahatyr.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces captured Vilne Pole, attempted to advance northeast of Shevchenkove, from Zelene Pole to Novopil, and attacked near Komar, Vesele, and Burlatske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Vesele and Vilne Pole.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky.
On the Prydniprovske direction, Russian forces continue fighting on the islands in the Dnipro River delta, near Nova Kakhovka, Dnipro, and Korsunka, and are conducting raids near Burhunka, Mykolaivka, and Kizomys.
General conclusion:
Russian forces are amassing strength on the Kharkiv direction and have already launched their summer offensive, conducting daily assaults near Vovchanski Khutory and Tykhe. However, they recently ceased attempts to cross the Vovcha River.
The situation has sharply escalated on the Kostyantynivka direction, where the enemy, advancing with the flanks of its "Tsentr (Center)" and "Yug (South)" Operational Groupings on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions, is attempting to break through from the south to Kostyantynivka.
Part of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division's forces have been regrouped to the left flank of the 8th Combined Arms Army's offensive sector, as the enemy managed to achieve a tactical breakthrough with the forces of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division. The main forces of the 51st Combined Arms Army are concentrated on the Toretsk direction. The 8th Combined Arms Army is delivering its main strike in the general direction of Vozdvyzhenka–Novoolenivka.
Over the past two weeks, having deployed the main forces of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division and part of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, the 8th Combined Arms Army's command managed to breach the defenses of the "Khortytsia" Operational and Strategic Group (OSG) in the Vozdvyzhenka–Malynivka and Baranivka–Novoolenivka directions. The enemy penetrated to a depth of up to 5 km along a 10 km front, systematically capturing several settlements and reaching the lines of Novoolenivka–Oleksandropil, Malynivka–Nova Poltavka, effectively taking full control of the Pokrovsk–Bakhmut road segment between Malynivka and Novoolenivka. The command of the 8th Combined Arms Army is intensifying its efforts. The army's forward units actively attack along the Pokrovsk–Bakhmut highway in the directions of Novoolenivka–Stepanivka and Oleksandropil–Yablunivka, attempting to break through to the forward approaches to Kostyantynivka from the southwest.
The tactical success of the enemy at the junction of the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions is evident. Thanks to a large amount of infantry and the capability to constantly replenish forward units suffering the heaviest losses with personnel, the enemy so far has managed to maintain a very high intensity of assault operations. On the left flank of this penetration, Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold Yelyzavetivka and the surrounding areas, which is impacting enemy operations. If the enemy fails to secure its positions in Malynivka and Nova Poltavka, the "Khortytsia" OSG holding Yelyzavetivka will clearly preserve Ukraine's ability to conduct effective counterattacks on the enemy's flank along the Pokrovsk–Bakhmut highway.
The development of the operational situation on the southern approaches to Kostyantynivka depends on the enemy's ability not only to consolidate its hold on the Malynivka–Nova Poltavka line but also to deepen its breakthrough.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 165 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted offensive actions six times near Vovchansk, Hlyboke, and toward Vysoka Yaruha, Dovhenke, and Kudiivka.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were four enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults toward Pishchane and in the areas of Zahryzove and Kruhlyakivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 16 times, attempting to advance in the areas of Ridkodub, Kolodiazi, and in the directions of Novoplatonivka, Novoserhiyivka, Olhivka, Hrekivka, Novyi Myr, and Zelena Dolyna.
On the Siversk direction, three enemy assaults were repelled near Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, and Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, nine combat clashes were recorded in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Kurdyumivka.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out eight attacks in the areas of Toretsk, Krymske, Dyliivka, Klishchiivka, and in the direction of Bila Hora.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 75 enemy assaults were stopped in the areas of Malynivka, Nova Poltavka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Myrnohrad, Troitske, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Andriivka, Promin, Kotlyne, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, and in the directions of Zoria, Novoserhiyivka, Popiv Yar, and Stara Mykolaivka.
A part of the forces of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division is intensively attacking in the directions of Malynivka–Novoekonomichne and Nova Poltavka–Poltavka, attempting to expand its tactical penetration towards Myrnohrad.
Fierce fighting is ongoing in the area of Malynivka and Nova Poltavka, determining the tactical stability of the entire Russian breakthrough on the Pokrovsk–Bakhmut highway between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, 23 enemy attempts to break through defensive lines near Bahatyr, Konstyantynopil, Pryvilne, and Vilne Pole were stopped.
On the Orikhiv direction, the aggressor conducted three offensive actions in the areas of Mali Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, and Stepove, but did not succeed.
On the Prydniprovske direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped the enemy's attempt to advance.
On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 enemy attacks. The enemy carried out 12 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck an ammunition depot of the 126th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, as well as airfields in Belbek and Kacha, other targets in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, and a depot in Podolsk, Moscow Oblast.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment operates near Veselivka.
The 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army operates near Bilohorivka.
The 20th Motorized Rifle Division (33rd, 57th, 242nd, and 255th Motorized Rifle Regiments, 428th Separate Tank Battalion, 944th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment, 487th Separate Anti-Tank Battalion, 1219th, 1436th, and 1465th Rifle Regiment of Mobilization Reserve) of the 8th Combined Arms Army advances in the Vozdvyzhenka–Keramik sector towards Baranivka–Novoolenivka, Vozdvyzhenka–Malynivka, and Kalynove–Stara Mykolaivka. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army advances in the directions of Druzhba–Dyliivka and Nelipivka–Shcherbynivka. Up to six self-propelled mortar regiments of the 8th and 51st Combined Arms Armies also concentrate on the Toretsk direction. The 10th Tank Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division, reinforced with units of the 944th Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment, advances separately from the main forces of the division in the operational zone of the 3rd Combined Arms Army under the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping.
The 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army operates on the Pokrovsk direction.
The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps and the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army operate in Malynivka, while the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army operates in Myroliubivka.
The 14th Separate SOF Brigade operates near Odradne.
The 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army operates towards Zaporizhzhia.
Possible operation situation developments:
The plan for the enemy's spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping through Lyman. Russian forces may attempt to advance near Kupyansk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, or toward the city of Zaporizhzhia. The Pokrovsk direction is viewed by Ukraine’s military-political leadership as the absolute priority for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Additionally, Russian forces intend to create a buffer zone in the north of Sumy Oblast and pose a threat to the city of Sumy in the coming months.
The enemy will maintain its offensive in northern Sumy Oblast to establish a buffer zone along the Yunakivka – Khrapivshchyna – Radkivka – Mohrytsya line, extending along the Psel River. The command of the "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping is focusing on seizing control of the Bilovody – Loknia – Yunakivka – Yablunivka sector, as well as the eastern portion of the forested area west of Mohrytsya. Their objective is to push forward to the Velyka Rybytsya – Myropillya line along the Psel River. The enemy is also attempting to break through towards Vorozhba and Bilopillya to disrupt the Sumy – Novhorod-Siverskyi supply route.
On the Kupyansk direction, the command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping intends to encircle the tactical group of "Khortytsia" OSG which is defending along the Novoyehorivka – Hrekivka line. To achieve this, they plan to advance with the 144th Motorized Rifle Division from the bridgehead near Nove towards the heights near the village of Cherneshchyna, and with the 4th Tank Division advancing in converging directions: Raihorodka – Cherneshchyna and Pershotravneve – Kopanky.
On the Lyman direction, the forces of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping will advance towards Karlivka and Drobysheve, aiming to reach the Karlivka – Shandryholove – Drobysheve line while simultaneously advancing near Torske to approach Lyman from the east. The 25th Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through the communication lines of the "Khortytsia" OSG tactical group, which is defending in the Dibrova – Yampil direction and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest. The enemy will attempt to advance on both banks of the Chornyi Zherebets River, moving towards the general directions of Yampolivka – Torske and Ivanivka – Zarichne. The main grouping of the army will operate on its right flank, attempting to break through from the north to the Lyman – Kreminna road in the Zarichne – Torske section, while simultaneously tying down the "Khortytsia" OSG forces in the center and on the left flank of the operational zone with frontal engagements.
On the Siversk direction, the command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will attempt to eliminate the Siversk salient held by "Khortytsia" OSG and break through towards the Sloviansk – Kramatorsk agglomeration and to Kostyantynivka, delivering its main strike in the area of Chasiv Yar. The 3rd Combined Arms Army of the enemy will try to break through to Kostyantynivka from Chasiv Yar, but it is unlikely to achieve its operational goals without reinforcements, such as the return of the 106th Airborne Division from the Kursk direction or strategic reserves. The 3rd Army will attempt to advance to the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River between Yampil and Hryhorivka and from the southeast towards Siversk. The command of the "Yug" Operational Grouping is also concentrating forces in the areas of Soledar, Rozdolivka, and Zaliznyanske to strike from the south along the Bakhmutka River towards Siversk. The offensive may begin with the advance of the forward units of the 127th and 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 3rd Army towards Siversk from the east and southeast. The immediate objective for the enemy is to capture Pereyizne and Fedorivka, with the subsequent goal of advancing to the Zvanivka – Vyimka line.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping and the 3rd Army, in particular, may soon change the direction of their main strike and shift it to the north of Chasiv Yar, launching an offensive on both sides of the Bakhmut–Sloviansk road along the Orikhovo-Vasylivka–Minkivka and Blahodatne–Pryvillya directions, which would allow them to break through to the forward approaches of Sloviansk directly from the southeast and create a real threat to the “Siversk” Operational Tactical Grouping (OTG) of Ukrainian Defense Forces by executing a deep flanking maneuver on its right flank. If the enemy manages to achieve operational surprise in these directions and advance to tactical depth, the situation in the Kolodyazi–Hryhorivka sector on the Lyman direction could radically deteriorate for the “Khortytsia” OSG.
Follow-on actions of the 8th Combined Arms Army south of Kostyantynivka could include a rapid advance from the southwest and west towards the forward approaches to Kostyantynivka or a breakthrough in the direction of Pokrovsk from Novoekonomichne and Myrnohrad. It should be considered that a breakthrough along the road towards Novoekonomichne and Myrnohrad would require the command of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping to involve elements of the 51st Combined Arms Army in the Vozdvyzhenka–Hrodivka sector and activate its forward units in the Mykolaivka–Promin direction. An attempt to achieve both objectives simultaneously, namely breaking through to Kostyantynivka and Myrnohrad, essentially advancing in diverging directions, would result in the collapse of the offensive. Within the week, the final choice of offensive direction is expected. The reassignment of the 150th and/or 20th Motorized Rifle Divisions to the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping should not be ruled out, as this would indicate a choice to prioritize a breakthrough towards Myrnohrad and further towards Pokrovsk from the east.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 16.05.25
Personnel - almost 971,690 (+1,100);
Tanks – 10,825 (+13);
Armored combat vehicles – 22,546 (+32);
Artillery systems – 27,908 (+36);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,385 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,167 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 48,713 (+166);
Aircraft - 372 (0);
Helicopters – 336 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 36,123 (+123);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,197 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of May 16, Russian occupiers attacked Ukraine with 112 Shahed-type strike UAVs and various types of decoy drones. As of 9:00 AM, 73 strike UAVs were confirmed shot down. Thirty-six enemy decoy drones were lost from radar (without negative consequences). As a result of the enemy attack, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv Oblasts were affected.
In the morning of May 16, air defense forces operated in Kyiv during an air alert due to the threat of strike drones. Later, reports emerged of a fire in the capital and debris falling on the territory of a boiler plant. There were no casualties or injuries.
Russian occupiers attacked the Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at night, firing about fifty shells. As a result, enterprises, residential buildings, educational institutions, and a church were damaged.
At night, the Russians struck Odesa and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi districts. The attack damaged civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings and cars. Several fires broke out in different locations. Three people were injured as a result of the drone attack—two men and one woman. The woman is in extremely critical condition.
The enemy attacked the city of Kupyansk around 8:00 AM. A 55-year-old woman was killed. Four more men—aged 58, 49, 40, and 53—were injured. Three of the injured were hospitalized. All of them are employees of the local municipal service. A service vehicle belonging to the public utility company was also damaged.
On the morning of May 16, Russian forces shelled Pokrovsk and Andriivka in Donetsk Oblast, injuring six civilians.
Around 07:30, Russian military forces attacked one of the streets in Beryslav with a UAV. As a result of the dropped explosives, a 50-year-old man received injuries incompatible with life. Another civilian was injured and hospitalized.
In Kherson, during the loading of humanitarian aid for the setup of basic shelters and "points of resilience," three social workers from the Kherson City Military Administration came under Russian fire. A service vehicle was damaged. The driver was injured. Additionally, around 10:30 AM, Russian forces dropped explosives from a drone onto a civilian car, causing it to catch fire. Two people were injured in the attack.
On May 16, 2025, at 11:30 AM, Russian "Molniya-1" UAVs attacked the city of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, killing two civilians and injuring three more.
A DTEK energy company repair crew came under fire in Donetsk Oblast near the frontline. An FPV drone explosion damaged a work vehicle.
As a result of repatriation efforts on May 16, the bodies of 909 fallen defenders were returned to Ukraine.
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