Russia's war on Ukraine. 16.02.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, the "Siversk" Operational-Tactical Group (OTG) attacked near Sverdlivkovo, Kurilovka, Russkaya Konopelka, and Cherkasskya Konopelka. A strike by Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed a UAV launch site of the enemy’s 28th Rifle Battalion of the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army in the area of Yelyzavetivka, from which attacks were launched on Sumy Oblast.
Russian forces advanced on the southern outskirts of Sverdlivkovo and attempted to move forward near Pogrebki and northwest of Guevo.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tykhe but failed.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces launched offensives in the areas of Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Hlushkivka, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Novoserhiyivka, Hrekivka, and toward Novoosynove. The enemy occupied nearly all of Dvorichna and advanced near Zapadne. The enemy holds an advantage in UAV operations.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked in the area of Kolodyazi and Yampolivka, attempting to advance into the village center.
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions in the wooded area east of Yampolivka.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults in the areas of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Ivano-Dariivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced in Chasiv Yar and attacked near Predtechyne, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces launched offensives on Toretsk and in the areas of Dyliivka, Krymske, and Leonidivka, advancing on the eastern outskirts of Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continued assaults in the areas of Zelenе Pole, Tarasivka, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novopavlivka, Dachenske, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Udachne, Zaporizhzhia, Nadiivka, Preobrazhenka, and Uspenivka. Fighting continues for control over Berezivka and Udachne.
The "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Grouping (OSG) reinforced counterattacks near Lysivka, advancing in the eastern part of Dachenske. However, counterattacks northwest of Pishchane have slowed.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces continued assaults near Shevchenkove, Andriivka, and toward Oleksiivka, as well as near Zelenivka and Rozlyv. The enemy attempted to advance southwest of Dachne, toward the southeastern outskirts of Konstyantynopil and the southern outskirts of Ulakly. They also advanced along the T0518 highway from Velyka Novosilka to Bahatyr and attacked Bahatyr.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces launched attacks near Velyka Novosilka, around Novosilka, and in the areas of Burlatske and Pryvilne, advancing northeast of Novyi Komar.
General conclusion:
The Russian command in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may shift the main offensive direction from the Pokrovsk to the Kramatorsk direction in the spring and summer of 2025 due to the slowing pace of the enemy’s advance on the Pokrovsk direction.
All Russian forces operating south of the Siverskyi Donets River (Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Toretsk directions) will effectively be unified under a single command—"Yug (South)" Operational Grouping. The redeployment of the 8th Army directly into the operational zone of the 51st Army suggests the formation of an additional operational-tactical direction—the Kostyantynivka direction.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy has achieved success in Chasiv Yar, advancing simultaneously in the northern and central parts of the city and south of it.
On the Toretsk direction, enemy forces have effectively occupied most of the city, except for several districts in the northern part of Toretsk and the villages of Zabalka, Krymske, and Dachne.
The enemy has advanced north from Vozdvyzhenka, reaching the interchange on the Pokrovsk – Bakhmut highway, cutting it off and occupying the village of Baranivka. This has provided the enemy with highly advantageous starting positions for the further capture of the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration and the opportunity to launch an assault on and capture Kostyantynivka.
Both motorized rifle divisions of the 8th Army underwent intensive replenishment with personnel and combat equipment for two months before their deployment to the operational zone of the "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping. The strength of each division is estimated to range between 7,000 and 8,000 troops. It is likely that the 68th Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division may be reassigned from the 3rd Army to its original division and will operate on the Pleshchiivka direction alongside either the 102nd or 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the division.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 261 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched five assaults on Ukrainian positions near Vovchansk, Tykhe, and toward Kozacha Lopan.
On the Kupyansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults near Dvorichna, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, and toward Novoosynove, where 39 enemy attacks took place.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 27 times, attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses near Zelenyi Hai, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, Terny, Torske, and Dibrova.
On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 Russian assaults near Verkhnokamianske and Ivano-Dariivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy conducted 29 attacks near Predtechyne, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces launched 19 attacks in the areas of Toretsk, Dyliivka, and Krymske.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces halted 71 enemy assaults in the areas of Zelenе Pole, Tarasivka, Vodyane Druhe, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Shevchenko, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Nadiivka, Andriivka, and Udachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 enemy attacks near Zelenivka, Rozlyv, Novyi Komar, Novosilka, and Velyka Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv Direction, the enemy launched two attacks toward Novoandriivka.
On the Prydniprovskyi Direction, Russian forces attempted eight unsuccessful assaults.
On the Kursk direction, 15 combat engagements took place, with the enemy conducting 33 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there are no enemy ships on combat duty in any of the maritime areas.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the POLIMAX auto-aggregate plant in Smolensk.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army, units of the 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade, and the 106th Airborne Division operate near Sverdlivkovo and Daryino. The 25th BARS detachment "Anvar" operates near Russkaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka.
The 116th Separate Operational Purpose Brigade of the Russian National Guard strikes Ukrainian targets in Kharkiv Oblast.
The 1442nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 27th Artillery Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division of the 3rd Army Corps are engaged in combat near Predtechyne.
The 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army is advancing on the northwestern outskirts of Andriivka. The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps is attacking south of Ulakly and Konstyantynopil. The 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army attacks south of Dachne. The 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 68th Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division are clearing Dachne and advancing west of the villlage.
The enemy’s 8th Army has begun regrouping toward the Toretsk direction. The 20th Motorized Rifle Division will concentrate along the Vozdvyzhenka – Nova Poltavka and Baranivka – Tarasivka directions. It will operate alongside the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army and several motorized rifle regiments from the Territorial Troops. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division focuses on the Toretsk direction and will advance toward Kleban-Byk and Pleshchiivka. The 9th and 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Army will operate in the division’s offensive zone.
The 51st Army conducts operations on the Toretsk direction (and, accordingly, the newly designated Kostyantynivka direction) with forces from the 5th, 9th, and 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades. The 110th and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the army are engaged in combat against the "Khortytsia" OSG in the remnants of the Kurakhove bridgehead. The 1st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has been withdrawn to reserve. After capturing Andriivka, the 110th and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades will concentrate within the operational zone of the 51st Army on the Toretsk direction or directly on the Kostyantynivka direction, within the offensive corridor of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
Possible operation situation developments:
Once the enemy sufficiently expands its bridgeheads on the Chornyi Zherebets River, the 25th Army, with forces of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division and the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will sharply intensify actions toward Torske and Yampolivka. This will mark the second stage of pushing "Khortytsia" OSG out of the bridgehead east of the Chornyi Zherebets River on the Lyman direction. To implement this plan, the command of "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping will need to expand the bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River to a size sufficient for concentrating an assault grouping and find additional forces and resources.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy’s “Yug (South) )” Operational Grouping will receive three new operational zones and will advance as follows: the 3rd Army, reinforced by part of the Airborne Forces group (98th Airborne Division), will operate on the Siversk and Kramatorsk directions, while the 51st Army will advance on the Toretsk direction. From the Novopavlivka direction, the regrouping of the 8th Army (20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions) is being finalized. The 8th Army's operational plan may involve an envelopment maneuver targeting the tactical group of Ukrainian Defense Forces defending south of Kostyantynivka, between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka. The enemy will attempt to encircle and destroy this group or, if unsuccessful, push it out of the area south of Kostyantynivka toward the northwest under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate objective may be a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast into the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka (by the 8th Army and 51st Army), after which the 3rd Army will simultaneously assault Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar.
The command of the enemy's "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping will continue attacks in the direction of the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway along the Mokri Yaly River in the near future and will additionally deploy part of the units from the 60th and 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades into the operation.
Exhausted by losses and intense battles over the past month, the enemy will not be able to quickly pursue "Khortytsia" OSG whose units are retreating from Velyka Novosilka. More and more enemy units are being withdrawn and redeployed to the Pokrovsk direction. Additionally, the enemy will not be able to break through to Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, as they lack the necessary troops, funds, and resources. The plan to collapse the southern Ukrainian front and advance toward Zaporizhzhia is unfeasible for the same reason.
In the near future, the enemy may shift the direction of its attacks on the southern flank of the remnants of the Kurakhove bridgehead from Ulakly and Dachne further west, toward Konstyantynopil, Rozlyv, and Bahatyr, and introduce the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation in this direction.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 16.02.25
Personnel - almost 858,390 (+1,730);
Tanks 10,073 (+5);
Armored combat vehicles – 21,011 (+84);
Artillery systems – 23,185 (+11);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,283 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,067 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 37,456 (+77);
Aircraft - 370 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 25,377 (+36);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,063 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Over the past week, the Russian army used nearly 1,220 aerial bombs, over 850 attack drones, and more than 40 missiles of various types against Ukraine, President Zelensky reported.
On the night of February 16, Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with 143 Shahed-type attack UAVs and various types of decoy drones. As of 09:00, 95 attack UAVs had been confirmed shot down. Forty-six enemy decoy drones were lost from radar (without negative consequences). Kyiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Odesa Oblasts were affected by the enemy attack.
On the night of February 16, Russian forces attacked Mykolaiv with Shaheds, causing a fire and damaging the Mykolaiv heat producing plant, leaving 46,000 cutomers without heat. One person was injured.
On the night of February 16, Russian invaders once again attacked Kyiv Oblast with UAVs, with the air raid alert lasting over five hours. Private houses and a warehouse were damaged. No casualties were reported.
The Russian army attacked Nikopol District of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A man was killed by shrapnel wounds, and another resident was injured. Over the course of the day, Nikopol District endured around fifteen enemy attacks. The occupiers shelled populated areas with artillery, directed kamikaze drones at them, and dropped explosives from UAVs.
Around 15:30, the Russian army struck the Central District of Kherson with artillery. A 74-year-old woman was injured in the shelling.
Russian forces shelled the town of Bilytske in Donetsk Oblast, killing two civilians. Six apartment buildings, an administrative building, a store, and a power line were damaged.
In Kherson, due to damage caused by Russian shelling, residents of the Dnipro District were partially left without electricity and water.
Over the past day, Russian forces carried out 40 attacks on eight communities in Sumy Oblast. A total of 62 explosions were recorded. As a result of the attacks, residential buildings were damaged in two communities, and a civilian was injured.
The International Atomic Energy Agency issued a statement regarding the consequences of a Russian drone strike on the confinement structure at Chornobyl NPP, noting that despite significant damage, the radiation level at the site remained unchanged. The statement also mentioned that the IAEA team stationed at the site was granted unrestricted access to the explosion site and conducted a detailed inspection to assess the damage to the structure, which was attacked by a Russian drone.