Russia's war on Ukraine. 16.01.25

Operational situation

On the Kursk direction, Russian troops are fighting for Makhnovka and Cherkasskoe Porechie. Fighting took place near the northwestern outskirts of Sudzha, in the areas of Kruglenkoe, Nikolaevka, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Pogrebki, Staraya Sorochina, and Novaya Sorochina.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked in the vicinity of Vovchansk and Tykhe.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked near Topoli, Petropavlivka, Tabaiivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Bohuslavka, near Kopanky by Makiivka, Hrekivka, Novoserhiyivka, and Tverdokhlibove. They advanced to the north and northwest of Vyshneve and to the west of Makiivka.

On the Lyman direction, Russian troops advanced near Terny, Kolodyazi, Zarichne, but without success.

On the Siversk direction, Russian troops advanced in the area of Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Vyimka, and Ivano-Dariivka.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops advanced at the refractory materials plant, attacked near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Stupochky, and Oleksandro-Shultyne.

On the Toretsk direction, Russian troops advanced in the northwest and northern parts of Toretsk and are attacking near Shcherbynivka.

On the Pokrovsk direction, advanced units of the 433rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Army Corps, 55th and 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 41st Army managed to break through to the Pokrovsk - Mezhova road and take control of the section between Kotlyne and Udachne. Meanwhile, intensive attacks by the 35th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in the direction of Zelene - Chunyshyne and Dachenske - Chunyshyne, as well as attacks by advanced units of the 589th and 506th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Army Corps with the support of several units of the 137th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army in the direction of Mykolaivka - Myrnohrad were unsuccessful. Advanced units of the 239th Tank Battalion, 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment, and 87th Separate Artillery Regiment of the 90th Tank Division managed to take control of Novovasylivka and reach the eastern outskirts of Uspenivka. Last week, the pace of enemy advancement was 0.8 - 1.2 km. The resistance of Ukrainian Defense Forces is growing, and the enemy cannot fully realize its numerical advantage.

On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy conducts active assaults to the north of the Donetsk - Zaporizhzhia highway, on the Sloviansk - Petropavlivka line, and in the directions of Yasenove - Novoandriivka, Novoyelyzavetivka - Nadiivka (the offensive zone of its 90th Tank Division: 6th, 80th Tank Regiment, 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 67th Rifle Regiment). The advance in the last 4 days has been up to 1 km.

The greatest threat comes from the actions of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army, which is attacking in the direction of Shevchenko (lower) - Andriivka, i.e., towards one of the “Khortytsia” OSG’s key defense areas on this front, to the north of the Vovcha River. The advance in the last 3 days has been up to 1 km along the Orlova River, with the enemy reaching the eastern outskirts of Andriivka.

The 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Army continue to apply frontal pressure on the positions of the "Khortytsia" OSG units defending the remains of the Kurakhove bridgehead, advancing in the directions of Kurakhove - Dachne and Dalnie - Yantarne. The advance in the last few days was 0.5 - 0.8 km.

The 36th and 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 29th Army and 5th Army of the “Vostok (East)” enemy Operational Grouping, reinforced by units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army and the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps, are clearly regrouping. The intensity of their attacks across the river has noticeably decreased, with activity remaining only around Yantarne. Expect the resumption of attacks in the direction of Zelenivka - Ulakly.

On the Vremivka direction, Russian troops advanced to Vremivka, attacked near Velyka Novosilka and Neskuchne, but without success.

General conclusion:

• The enemy's strike groups on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions continue to advance very slowly, suffering significant losses in their forward (assault) units. The enemy's command plan aims to envelope Pokrovsk deeply from the south and southwest, forcing the "Khortytsia" Operational Strategic Group (OSG) to retreat from the Kurakhove bridgehead. The enemy is close to realizing this plan.

• The enemy's 2nd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army, continues its offensive to deeply envelope the "Khortytsia" OSG defense area near Pokrovsk and adjacent territories from the southwest and west. Forces from the 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies are advancing in the directions of Vozdvyzhenka–Malynivka, Vozdvyzhenka–Baranivka, Novooleksandrivka–Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka–Yelyzavetivka, attempting to break through to the Pokrovsk–Bakhmut highway in the Malynivka–Nova Poltavka sector.

• The pace of the enemy's advance has significantly decreased. Its forward units actively attack in the area of the Baranivka hamlet, 1.5 kilometers south of the road junction, and towards Yelyzavetivka. However, their progress toward the junction and Yelyzavetivka has been limited to a few hundred meters.

• The command of the enemy’s "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping will soon face the necessity of significantly intensifying efforts on the main axis of attack to the south and southwest of Pokrovsk. This may involve deploying elements of the 15th and 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, as well as the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment, into the operation.

• In the near future, the enemy will be forced to transfer additional forces and equipment to the Pokrovsk direction (potentially from the Novopavlivka direction), regroup forces within the operational zone of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping, particularly the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies, and replenish its first-echelon troops with personnel, weapons, and military equipment. These measures will be carried out without an operational pause, but the deployment of additional forces is likely to result in a decrease in the intensity of combat operations.

• On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy's command is attempting to encircle the "Khortytsia" OSG units that are still defending the Dachne–Yantarne line. This is confirmed by the persistent attacks of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army towards Andriivka. However, the implementation of this plan is hindered by the slow advance of both the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 90th Tank Division advancing in the adjacent sector.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 124 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian positions twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhe.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove, Topoli, and Petropavlivka on the Kupyansk direction, where 5 enemy attacks took place.

• On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 16 times, attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses near Kopanky, Novoserhiyivka, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, Kolodyazi, Terny, and Hryhorivka.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 6 times in the areas of Stupochky, Chasiv Yar, and Predtechyne.

• On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 9 attacks in the areas of Bila Hora, Toretsk, and Krymske.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 56 enemy attacks toward Baranivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, Udachne, Kotlyne, Petropavlivka, Stari Terny, Yantarne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and Dachne.

• On the Novopavlivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 enemy attacks. The occupiers were most actively trying to advance near Vremivka and Konstyantynopil.

• On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked 4 times in the directions of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky.

• On the Kursk direction, 15 combat engagements took place, with the enemy delivering 13 airstrikes.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 106th Airborne Division and the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade operate near Nikolaevo-Daryino. The 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is advancing in Malaya Loknia.

• The 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps is attacking in Vovchansk.

• The 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army operates near Zelenyi Hai.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.

• The enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:

  • A breakthrough to the city from the south and the gradual expulsion of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the city due to numerical superiority in forces and means (the enemy's tactics in Chasiv Yar).

  • A deep encirclement of Pokrovsk from the south, cutting the road to Mezhova, regrouping part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army's forces, encircling the city from the north as well, cutting the T0504 road to Kostyantynivka.

• The 36th, 57^th, and the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, advancing from the south towards Sukhyi Yaly and Yantarne, might simultaneously, together with the actions of the 51st and 8th Combined Arms Armies, once again attempt to break through in the direction of Zelenivka – Ulakly and further towards Konstyantynopil.

• On the Vremivka direction, the 5th Combined Arms Army will attempt to bypass the "Khortytsia" OSG’s defense zone in the area of Velyka Novosilka – Vremivka – Neskuchne from the west, expand its section of control over the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road between Novosilka and Vremivka, and actively broaden the penetration toward Neskuchne and Novosilka.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 16.01.25

Personnel - almost 814,150 (+1,480);

Tanks 9,791 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 20,368 (+20);

Artillery systems – 22,015 (+40);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,262 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,046 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 34,132 (+137);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 331 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 22,503 (+120);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,049 (+31)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• Air defense forces destroyed 34 attack UAVs, including Shahed drones and others launched by Russia on the night of January 16. Another 18 UAVs were lost without negative consequences. Several drones struck a farm in Chernihiv Oblast, and debris from downed enemy drones damaged private houses in Kharkiv Oblast and Poltava Oblast.

• On the night of January 16, Russian occupiers attacked Antonivka in Kherson Oblast with drones, killing one man and injuring another. A 53-year-old resident of Kherson, who had been injured the previous afternoon by a drone attack in Kherson, later died in the hospital.

• Overnight, Poltava Oblast was attacked by enemy UAVs. Air defense responded to the targets. Debris from the drones damaged energy infrastructure in the region, leaving 301 households and 22 legal entities without electricity. No casualties were reported.

• During a drone attack on Kyiv, debris fell in five districts of the city, damaging a private vehicle. There were no injuries.

• During the day on January 16, Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with UAVs, with confirmed strikes. In the Slobidskyi district, three people were injured by falling debris.

• On January 16, Russian troops shelled a bus in Kherson, damaging the vehicle. Earlier in the morning, Russian forces dropped explosives from a drone onto a municipal vehicle in the Dnipro district of Kherson. Fortunately, there were no casualties.

• On the evening of January 15, in Nikopol, rescuers retrieved the body of a 54-year-old woman from the rubble of a building shelled by Russian MLRS systems.

• Over the past day, Russian forces carried out 73 shelling attacks on border areas of Chernihiv Oblast, parts of Sumy Oblast, and Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in a total of 252 explosions.

• In Donetsk Oblast, 15 civilians were injured due to shelling over the past day.

• A total of 648 Ukrainian men and women who suffered sexual violence by Russian occupiers have applied for interim reparations. As of today, 432 people have received payments.

• Since last autumn, Russian special services have begun targeting police officers carrying out terrorist attacks. Several incidents in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Dnipro have been uncovered through joint operations of the National Police and the Security Service of Ukraine, and the individuals involved have been detained. "There are specific orders to hunt police officers," said Ivan Vyhivskyi, the head of Ukraine's National Police.

• Paratroopers from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, together with allied Defense Forces units, captured 27 Russian servicemen in Kursk Oblast, Russia. Among the captives were officers, sergeants, and soldiers from motorized rifle units, naval infantry, airborne forces, and other military branches, representing various regions of Russia and the temporarily occupied city of Sevastopol.

• As of November 30, 2024, more than 4.2 million people who fled Ukraine due to Russia's full-scale invasion have temporary protection status in EU countries.

• A survey by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reveals that 61% of Ukrainian refugees want to return to Ukraine as soon as safety conditions allow.