Russia’s war on Ukraine. 15.12.25
Operational situation
On the Northen Slobozhanske Direction, Russian forces attacked near Oleksiivka and Sadky, and toward Myropillya. The 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade cannot rotate its units due to logistical problems.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, Russian forces attacked near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Synelnykove, Prylypky, and Vilcha.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near and inside Kupyansk, toward Monachynivka, near Petropavlivka, toward Pishchane, and near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked from Myrove, Radkivka, and Sobolivka, entered Kupyansk from the south, and destroyed a pipeline that the enemy used to infiltrate the northern outskirts of Kupyansk.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Serednie, Novoselivka, Drobysheve, Novyi Myr, Kolodyazi, and Zarichne.
On the Sloviansk direction, Russian forces advanced west of Siversk, fought for Sviato-Pokrovske, attacked within and near Siversk, near Ozerne, Yampil, Zakitne, Platonivka, Serebrianka, Pereyizne, and Vasyukivka.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and counterattacked near Sofiivka.
Russian forces attempted to advance along the H20 Kostyantynivka–Donetsk highway north of Oleksandro-Kalynove, attacked near and inside Kostyantynivka, near Chasiv Yar, Mayske, Virolyubivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleshchiivka, Kleban-Byk, Shcherbynivka, Ivanopillia, Yablunivka, Rusyn Yar, Volodymyrivka, Novopavlivka, and Sofiivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Shakhove and Nove Shakhove, toward Kucheriv Yar, near Zaporizhzhia, near and inside Pokrovsk, near Hryshyne, Rodynske, Bilytske, Svitle, Sukhetske, Myrnohrad, Kotlyne, and Udachne, attempted to advance in the center of Myrnohrad, north of Udachne, and in the western part of Novopidhorodnie.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked on the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Russian forces attacked near Novopavlivka, Novomykolayivka, Dachne, Oleksandrohrad, Novoselivka, Sosnivka, Oleksiivka, Verbove, and Krasnohirske, but did not advance.
On the Huliaypole Direction, Russian forces advanced to the T0401 Dnipro–Melitopol highway south of Varvarivka, attempted to advance toward the T0401 road north of Huliaypole, northwest of Pryluky, southwest of New Zaporizhzhia, attacked near and inside Huliaypole, near Dobropillya, toward Olenokostyantynivka, near Solodke, Zlahoda, Pryvilne, and Rybne.
Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions in the eastern part of Huliaypole.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked toward Lukyanivske, near Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, Plavni, and Novodanylivka.
On the Prydniprovske Direction, Russian forces continued fighting on islands in the Dnipro River delta, including Quarantine Island.
General conclusion:
The tempo of combat operations near Vilcha has decreased, although over recent weeks this was the hottest sector of the front in Kharkiv Oblast.
The enemy carried out an assault near Hryshyne and is attempting to cut the O0525 highway between Pokrovsk and Hryshyne.
Russian forces may redeploy part of the 36th and 29th Combined Arms Armies from the Oleksandrivka direction to the offensive zone of the 5th Combined Arms Army in the coming weeks.
Russian forces operating near the city of Kherson do not have a sufficient number of unmanned surface vessels (USVs) to carry out tasks in the Dnipro River delta.
Change in the line of contact (LoC), directions of attacks and counterattacks:
There were 154 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, a combat engagement occurred.
On the Southern Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, 11 combat engagements took place near Synelnykove, Prylypky, Vovchansk, and toward Kolodyazne.
On the Kupyansk Direction, the occupiers carried out three attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions toward Petropavlivka and Pishchane.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 13 times, attempting to advance in the areas of Novoyehorivka, Kolodyazi, Novoselivka, Serednie, and Zarichne.
On the Sloviansk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled seven enemy attacks. Occupying units attempted to advance in the areas of Yampil, Serebrianka, and Pereyizne.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, the enemy carried out 25 attacks near Chasiv Yar, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Shcherbynivka, Pleshchiivka, Ivanopillya, Yablunivka, and toward Sofiivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 47 enemy assault and offensive actions were stopped in the areas of Shakhove, Nykanorivka, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, Dachne, and toward Novopavlivka.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 17 attacks near Oleksandrohrad, Novoselivka, Sosnivka, Verbove, Krasnohirske, Pryvilne, Zlahoda, and Rybne.
On the Huliaypole Direction, the enemy conducted 13 assault actions; Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled attacks in the areas of Solodke, Huliaypole, and toward Varvarivka.
On the Orikhiv Direction, the enemy advanced toward Prymorske.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the enemy made an unsuccessful attempt to attack in the area of the Antonivskyi Bridge.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out UAV strikes against the Luch Thermal Power Plant in Belgorod, command posts of the 76th Air Assault Division in Donetsk Oblast, the Volna-2 EW station, the Imbir radar, the 96 L Six E radar, and the Kasta-2E2 radar in Crimea, as well as energy facilities in Rostov, Kamensk, Novoshakhtinsk, and in the Kamensky, Millerovsky, Chortkovsky, Belokalitvinsky, Sholokhovsky, Tatsinsky, Tarasovsky, Morozovsky, and Konstantinovsky districts of Rostov Oblast.
Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports were closed.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army strikes Ukrainian positions east of Bohuslavka.
The 155th Separate Marine Brigade, the 1219th and 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operate in Kostyantynivka.
The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Combined Arms Army and the 174th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army operate in the Dobropillya area; the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 80th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 51st Combined Arms Army strike Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad; the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade operates south of Myrnohrad.
The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army and the 16th Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Protection Brigade of the Eastern Military District strike Ukrainian positions in Huliaypole; the 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 69th Separate Reconnaissance Regiment of the 35th Combined Arms Army operate northeast of the city; the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army operates in the area between Novopavlivka and Huliaypole.
The 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions near Orikhove; elements of the 7th Air Assault Division operate toward Lukyanivske.
The 98th Airborne Division strikes Ukrainian positions in Mykilske.
Possible operation situation developments:
The Defense Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry assesses that the enemy will not be able to capture all of Donetsk Oblast by the spring of 2026. If current fighting continues at the same pace, the enemy could possibly take control of Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Kupyansk no earlier than year’s end.
On the Southern Slobozhanske Direction, the enemy will attempt to break through in the area of Tsehelne toward the Vovchansk–Staryi Saltiv road and the highway to Rubizhne and will try to seize the southern part of Vovchansk with the forces of a tactical grouping formed from elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 11th and the 44th Army Corps. The main forces of the 6th Combined Arms Army will advance from the Vovchansk–Bilyi Kolodyaz area and from the bridgehead on the Oskil through Hryhorivka along converging directions toward Velykyi Burluk, pushing Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the entire territory east of the Siverskyi Donets. Attacks toward Milove–Ambarne and a push toward Hryhorivka from the north are possible. To reduce the combat potential of the Defense Forces’ 16th Army Corps in the Vovchansk area, the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping command will intensify fire on the key supply routes leading to the Vovchansk and Velykyi Burluk areas from the west, southwest, and south, especially at the Siverskyi Donets crossings (the areas of Verkhnya Pysarivka, Staryi Saltiv, and Pechenihy). There is also a high likelihood of enemy strikes in the areas of Bilyi Kolodiaz, Velykyi Burluk, Rubizhne, and Buhayivka. The enemy’s theater-level command is preparing to reinforce the tactical grouping in the Vovchansk area with additional units of the 14th Army Corps and the 1st Tank Army of the “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping.
On the Lyman direction, the troops of the enemy’s 20th Combined Arms Army will advance toward Shandryholove–Novoselivka and Zelena Dolyna–Drobysheve and will push into the Novoselivka–Drobysheve–Pryshyb–Yarova area, while simultaneously expanding its tactical bridgehead on the Nitrius River near the village of Serednie, in order to block Lyman from the northwest and cut all communications running along the Siverskyi Donets River toward Izium. The enemy may attempt an immediate crossing of the Siverskyi Donets in the Zakytne–Dronivka area, which will complicate the further defense of Siversk.
The enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will attack in the directions of Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka and Druzhkivka, attempting to cut the H20 highway Kostyantynivka–Sloviansk, which will complicate the logistics of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ 19th Army Corps in Kostyantynivka. The enemy will deliver concentric strikes simultaneously from Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, the Kleban-Byk Reservoir, and from the Poltavka–Yablunivka line. The enemy’s naval infantry grouping operating on the adjacent flank of the 8th and 51st Combined Arms Armies will attempt to break through from the southwest to the near approaches of Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, bypassing them from the west. The enemy’s 3rd Army Corps and the formations of the 8th Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through toward Kostyantynivka, reach the T0504 road, and ease their advance toward Kostyantynivka through Predtechyne and Stupochky. In the area southeast of Kostyantynivka, the enemy will attempt to create an informational pretext regarding a “successful start of the battle for the capture of Kostyantynivka” and will try to isolate the units of Ukrainian Defense Forces’ 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 11th Army Corps, which continue to successfully defend the Chasiv Yar area, from the defense area in Kostyantynivka. The enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will break through to the Novodmytrivka–Chervone line in an attempt to completely collapse Ukrainian defenses in the Chasiv Yar area by applying pressure from the south.
The command of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping in order to prevent the withdrawal of elements of the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad bridgehead, will make efforts to achieve a deeper envelopment of the western flank of the Pokrovsk defense area, attacking northward from the Udachne–Kotlyne line and attempting to break through to Hryshyne. The withdrawal of elements of Ukrainian Defense Forces from Myrnohrad toward the Dobropillya area could affect the overall situation on the 51st Combined Arms Army bridgehead west of the Kazennyi Torets River. To prevent a deterioration of the situation there, the enemy would hastily organize and conduct counterattacks in the areas of Ivanivka and Nove Shakhove.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, the troops of the enemy’s “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will attempt to envelop the Huliaypole defensive area of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the north and block its main lines of communication. The troops of the 36th Combined Arms Army and elements of the right flank of the 5th Combined Arms Army will be breaking through toward Pokrovske from the southeast. The enemy will attempt to reach the Khaychur River and the Huliaypole–Pokrovske road on the Dobropillya–Varvarivka section.
Enemy forces of the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping on the Huliaypole Direction will bypass the Huliaypole defensive area from the north, breaking through on the Dobropillya–Varvarivka section, or will break through toward Pokrovske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the south and southeast. At any moment, to exploit success, the 76th Air Assault Division or the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army may be committed to the operation from the Oleksandrivka Direction. The enemy is capable of creating an operational breakthrough toward Novomykolayivka and of bypassing the Orikhiv defensive area from the north. Russian military command on the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations will attempt to collapse the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the southeast of Zaporizhzhia and break through to its approaches. To achieve this, it will simultaneously advance toward Zaporizhzhia both from the east, from Donetsk along the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway, and from the south. By active offensive actions in the area of Danylivka, the enemy will attempt to isolate the Ukrainian grouping in Huliaypole from its main forces in the Pokrovske–Oleksandrivka area, force the Khaychur River in the Danylivka–Dobropillya area, and encircle Huliaypole from the northwest.
On the Orikhiv direction, the “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will attempt to break through along the left bank of the Dnipro River from the Plavni – Kamianske line toward Stepnohirsk and from the Stepove – Mali Shcherbaky line in the northern direction aiming to reach close approaches to the city of Zaporizhzhia.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.12.25
Personnel - almost 1,188 490 (+710);
Tanks – 11,410 (+1);
Armored combat vehicles ‒ 23,721 (+7);
Artillery systems – 35,041 (+9);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,567 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,259 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 69,798 (+81);
Aircraft - 432 (0);
Helicopters – 347 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 90,124 (+440);
Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 4,073 (+13);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of December 15, Russia attacked Ukraine with 153 unmanned aerial vehicles of various types. According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about 90 of them were Shahed drones. According to preliminary data, as of 09:00, air defense shot down or suppressed 133 enemy unmanned aerial vehicles. Impacts by 17 strike unmanned aerial vehicles were recorded at 10 locations. The attack continued, with several enemy unmanned aerial vehicles remaining in Ukrainian airspace.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that there is not a single facility in Ukraine’s energy system that has not been attacked by Russia.
As a result of a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle attack in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, two men were injured in the Mykolaivka community of the Synelnykove district, where fires broke out and infrastructure was damaged. Later, Russian forces carried out a repeat strike during firefighting operations, wounding and hospitalizing a rescuer and an enterprise employee. Enemy drones also flew toward Pavlohrad and Piatykhatky, where fires raged and infrastructure and a transport enterprise were damaged. In addition, the occupiers struck the Nikopol district with the Grad multiple launch rocket system, hitting the Marhanets community.
In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a 53-year-old man was killed by artillery shelling of the Nikopol district. Throughout the day, Russian forces attacked the district with artillery and FPV drones, damaging infrastructure, three private houses, an outbuilding, a garage, passenger vehicles, and power lines. Unmanned aerial vehicles also attacked Pavlohrad and Ternivka, causing fires and infrastructure damage, while in the Synelnykove area unmanned aerial vehicle strikes damaged a farm, a vehicle, and power lines. In the Hrushivka community, an enemy FPV drone hit a shop.
In Sumy Oblast, a 68-year-old man was killed in the Velyka Pysarivka community after a Russian drone struck his bicycle. In addition, in the Hlukhiv community, a 60-year-old man was wounded by an enemy drone strike and hospitalized.
Three quarters of Ukrainians oppose a “peace plan” that, among other provisions, would include the withdrawal of troops from Donbas, limits on the size of the Ukrainian army, and the absence of concrete security guarantees. According to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted from November 26 to December 13, the “Russian plan remains categorically unacceptable, with 75 percent of Ukrainians considering it completely unacceptable. Only 17 percent of Ukrainians are ready to accept the Russian version of peace.”
A conditional plan of Europe and Ukraine that includes reliable security guarantees from Europe and the United States, including sustained supplies of weapons and funding and the closure of the sky, freezing the current front line without official recognition of Russia’s occupation of seized territories, Ukraine’s movement toward European Union membership, and the preservation of sanctions against Russia is supported by 72 percent of Ukrainians, mostly without enthusiasm. Only 14 percent of respondents categorically reject this plan.
According to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, as of late November to early December 2025, 61 percent of Ukrainians trust President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while 32 percent do not, resulting in a trust balance of plus 29 percent. Sociologists note a positive trend: among respondents surveyed in November from November 26 to 30, 49 percent trusted Zelenskyy, while among those surveyed in December from December 1 to 13 this figure rose to 63 percent, and to 65 percent in the week of December 8 to 13.
According to data from a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology survey, the majority of Ukrainians, specifically 57 percent, believe that the main cause of power outages is Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. At the same time, nearly a third of respondents, 29 percent, place responsibility for the outages on the Ukrainian authorities, whom they believe were insufficiently prepared for the strikes. Another 8 percent consider the main cause of outages to be insufficient support for Ukraine from Western partners.
According to a public opinion survey by Info Sapiens conducted from November 5 to 26, 2025, Ukrainians demonstrate a decline in trust toward world leaders, including United States President Donald Trump. Only 24.4 percent of respondents said that Trump inspires trust, compared to 44.6 percent a year earlier. These changes are linked to the suspension of United States military assistance to Ukraine and the promotion of “peace initiatives” similar to Kremlin demands. As a result, only 10.6 percent of respondents believe that the United States is doing everything possible for Ukraine’s victory, while 36.2 percent categorically disagree with this statement.