Russia's war on Ukraine. 15.12.24
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advanced east of Liubimovka, east of Kurilovka, and are attempting to cross the Psel River near Kurilovka. They also advanced north of Martynovka and attacked east of Novoivanovka, near Daryino.
The “Siversk” OTG units counterattacked in certain directions. The 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade repelled a massive assault involving a contingent from North Korea near the village of Malaya Loknia.
On the Kharkiv direction, units of the “Kharkiv” OTG advanced on the southern outskirts of Hlyboke.
On the Kupyansk direction, the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army is attempting to advance on the northern outskirts of Lozova. The enemy attacked near Kolisnykivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, Pershotravneve, Nadiya, Kopanka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Shyikivka, Cherneshchyna, Hrekivka, and Novoyehorivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced near Makiivka, Terny, Torske, Zarichne, Hryhorivka, and Dibrova.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces conducted a large-scale assault at the junction of the positions of the 54th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade in the area of Bilohorivka, as well as in the area of Verkhnokamianske, Spirne, and Vyimka, but did not achieve success.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces are fighting for the refractory materials plant in the center of Chasiv Yar and attacked near Stupochky. The enemy has covered the O0508 Bakhmut–Chasiv Yar road with nets, protecting it from attacks by Ukrainian UAVs.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced northwest to the "Tsentralna" mine and to the market in the center of Toretsk. They continued to advance northwest along 3rd Travnevy Lane, approaching the spoil heap near Mine No. 10 in the city center. They also attacked in Toretsk, near Dyliivka, and Krymske.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the western and eastern outskirts of Shevchenkove, on the southern outskirts of Novotroitske, near Mykolaivka, to the outskirts of Pishchane, the southern outskirts of Dachenske, in the direction of Novovasylivka, and advanced near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Pushkyne, Novoolenivka, and Pishchane.
Ukrainian Defense forces counterattacked near Novotroitske and Shevchenkove.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced to the Kurakhove City Council building on Mechnykova Street, in the direction of Slovyanka, to Shevchenkove, and advanced near Kurakhove, near Sontsivka, Zorya, Stari Terny, Dachne, Dalnie, Yelyzavetivka, Veselyi Hai, Hannivka, Uspenivka, Trudove, Konstyantynopolske, and Sukhi Yaly. They have almost completely captured Uspenivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced near Storozhove and Neskuchne, and attacked near Rozdolne, Novyi Komar, Blahodatne, Storozhove, Neskuchne, Novodarivka, and Novopil. Fighting resumed in Novyi Komar afterwards.
Ukrainian Defense forces counterattack near Velyka Novosilka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces made minor advances to the northeast of Nesteryanka.
General conclusion:
The increase in enemy activity on the Siversk direction is explained by a change in the command of the 3rd Army.
Russian forces concentrate personnel for assaults in the basements and destroyed buildings of Toretsk to avoid detection and destruction of assault groups by Ukrainian Defense Forces.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian military command deploys the least trained soldiers in the first wave of the assault, followed by more prepared fighters.
Near Uspenivka, Russian forces use a different tactic, initially attacking with small groups on motorcycles, followed by larger forces with the support of armored vehicles the next day.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 292 combat engagements on various fronts.
Using bomber and assault aviation on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, the occupiers carried out 3 attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped all enemy assault actions in the area of Lozova.
On the Lyman direction, 15 Russian attacks were repelled near Pershotravneve, Zelenyi Hai, Kopanky, Novoserhiyivka, Nadiya, Makiivka, Druzhelyubivka, and Terny.
The enemy carried out airstrikes on the Siversk direction. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 55 enemy assaults near Verkhnokamianske, Bilohorivka, Spirne, Vyimka, and Berestove.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy attempted once to breach Ukrainian defenses near Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, actively using bomber aviation near Toretsk, the enemy made 5 futile attempts to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from their positions.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 52 enemy attacks of varying intensity near Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Novyi Trud, Sukhyi Yar, Zelene, Pishchane, Petrivka, Shevchenko, Novotroitske, Ukrainka, and Novoolenivka. At the same time, the enemy carried out strikes using assault and bomber aviation near Stara Mykolaivka, Nova Poltavka, and Hrodivka.
On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Zoria, Kurakhove, Lysivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hannivka, and Uspenivka, where the occupiers, with air support, attempted to breach Ukrainian defense 50 times.
The enemy actively used aviation on the Vremivka direction, where Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 37 enemy attacks near Trudove, Veselyi Hai, Konstyantynopolske, Rozdolne, Novyi Komar, Velyka Novosilka, Storozhove, Makarivka, and Novoandriivka.
On the Huliaypole direction, the enemy launched airstrikes on the area of Huliaypole.
Mala Tokmachka, Novopavlivka, and Robotyne were subjected to airstrikes on the Orikhiv direction.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy launched airstrikes on the area of Mykolaivka, carried out 3 assaults, but did not achieve success.
On the Kursk direction, 57 combat engagements took place, and the enemy carried out 15 airstrikes on the “Siversk” OTG positions.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 41 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 106th Airborne Division operates near Novoivanovka. The 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment is engaged in combat along the Naidionovo–Nechaievo line.
The 31st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Army operates on the Lyman direction.
Near Chasiv Yar, the 98th Airborne Division, the 78th "Sever-Akhmat” Separate Motorized Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army and the 4th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Army are engaged in combat.
The 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army operates near Novotroitske. The 74th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army and the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army are active near Shevchenkove.
The 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army operates in Yelyzavetivka. The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps operates near Vesely Hai and Konstyantynopolske.
The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet operates near Rozdolne, while the 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Army operates near Velyka Novosilka.
Possible operation situation developments:
On the Kupyansk direction, the enemy will try to break through the "Khortytsia" OSG defense near Kruhlyakivka and advance southward toward Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka; attack Lozova and move toward Nova Kruhlyakivka; breach the "Khortytsia" OSG defense at Pershotravneve toward Kopanky and Novoserhiyivka, forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces to retreat from positions near Novoyehorivka under the threat of encirclement.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction. If the Chasiv Yar Refractory Materials Plant is lost, it will be under enemy control by the end of December.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy will attempt to advance to the Novotroitske–Ukrainka line, which would achieve two operational objectives: bypassing the flank of Ukrainian Defense Forces units holding Zorya and Sontsivka and simultaneously creating favorable conditions for enveloping Pokrovsk from the south.
If the enemy advances to the area where the Vovcha and Solona rivers converge near Dachne from the north, the position of Ukrainian Defense Forces units in Kurakhove will become critically complicated unless they manage to retreat in time.
On the Vremivka direction, intense battles for Velyka Novosilka are expected to unfold soon, as the enemy's future ability to organize and carry out a further offensive toward Rozlyv and Bahatyr, as well as to conduct a deep flanking maneuver against the Ukrainian Defense Forces' grouping from the south, depends on it. Maintaining control over Rozdolne (located between Velyka Novosilka and the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk highway) and having a convenient stronghold for concentrating and deploying additional forces and assets, the enemy command will soon attempt to cut off all "Khortytsia" OSG’s communication lines in Velyka Novosilka. The enemy will once again attempt to break through towards Novyi Komar or in the direction of Dniproenerhiya.
By the end of the current year, the enemy will not succeed in seizing the "belt of fortresses" Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk – Sloviansk or occupying Donetsk Oblast. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will mark the apex of the enemy’s offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will be creating conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the “Special Military Operation”: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.12.24
Personnel - almost 762,440 (+1,280);
Tanks 9,551 (+12);
Armored combat vehicles – 19,707 (+32);
Artillery systems – 21,128 (+26);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,256 (+3);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,025 (+2);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 31,398 (+181);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 20,356 (+127);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2943 (+2)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
During the week of December 9-15, Russian forces used nearly 630 guided aerial bombs, about 550 attack drones, and over 100 missiles against Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
On the night of December 15, Ukrainian Air Defense Forces shot down 56 enemy UAVs, 49 were lost from radar, and three returned to Russia. In total, the occupiers attacked Ukraine with an S-300 surface-to-air guided missile and 108 attack UAVs.
On Sunday morning, Russian forces attacked an infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv with a Shahed drone, injuring two workers.
On the morning of December 15, Russian forces launched a missile strike on the Kyiv district of Kharkiv, injuring one person. The Russians targeted a residential area, but fortunately, the missile did not hit any buildings.
Overnight and in the morning, Russian forces carried out three shelling attacks on border areas and villages in Sumy Oblast. Eight explosions were recorded. In the Chupakhivka community, a civilian was injured when a Shahed-type UAV hit the area.
Over the past day, the occupiers launched 429 strikes on 19 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Two civilians were injured. Authorities received 16 reports of damage to residential buildings and infrastructure facilities.
The international environmental organization Greenpeace warns of an environmental disaster in the Black Sea following the accident involving two Russian tankers, "Volgoneft-212" and "Volgoneft-239," in the Kerch Strait. The "Volgoneft-212" ran aground, and more than 4 tons of fuel oil may have spilled into the sea. The "Volgoneft-239" suffered severe damage due to a storm. The ship carries over 4,000 tons of fuel oil on board.