Russia's war on Ukraine. 15.11.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted 4 attacks in the vicinity of Hlyboke and Vovchansk.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the occupiers carried out 11 attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled all assaults near Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Hlushkivka, Zelenyi Hai, Zahryzove, Kruhlyakivka, Pershotravneve, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces thwarted 9 enemy attacks near Katerynivka, Druzhelyubivka, Nevske, Terny, and Torske, despite the enemy deploying airstrikes in the Serhiivka Forest area. On the Siversk direction, 2 enemy assaults near Verkhnokamianske were repelled. On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted one assault near Predtechyne but was stopped. On the Toretsk direction, 11 enemy attacks with heavy use of bomber aviation took place near Dyliivka, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 24 enemy assaults of varying intensity near Promin, Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar, Pushkyne, Zhovte, and Pustynka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped assaults near Berestky, Sontsivka, Illinka, Novoselydivka, Zoria, Dalnie, and Kostyantynivka, where the enemy made 37 breakthrough attempts actively employing bomber aviation. On the Vremivka direction, 12 attacks near Makarivka, Yantarne, Rivnopil, and Novodaryivka were repelled. On the Orikhiv direction, two engagements occurred near Novodanylivka.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, four enemy attacks failed.

General conclusion:

• The capture of Kupyansk is a prerequisite for the enemy to advance towards Lyman and Slovyansk. 

• The ability of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade to hold its defensive sector directly depends on the resilience of the 113th Territorial Defense Brigade, which is defending to the south. 

• The enemy's capture of Kupyansk would result in significant operational consequences.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 144 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kursk direction, the “Siversk” OTG repelled an assault south of Zelionyi Put, encircling and destroying a unit of the 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

• The 810th Separate Marines Brigade conducted strikes near Maryivka, Pogrebki, Orlovka, and Novaya Sorochina, advancing into southern Novaya Sorochina and east of Novyi Put. Russian forces captured some positions between Pogrebki and Kremiannoe.

• Fighting continued around Kremiannoe, Nikolaevo-Daryino, Novoivanovka, Leonidovo, Daryino, Novaya Sorochina, Malaya Loknia, and Plekhovo.

• On the Kharkiv direction, battles occurred near Hlyboke and Vovchansk, with reports of Russian cross-border raids near Vysoka Yaruha.

• On the Kupyansk direction, after airstrikes and heavy artillery shelling, Russian forces attacked from the north along the railway from Synkivka, crossing a partially destroyed bridge over the Hnylytsia River, effectively reaching Kupyansk's northern outskirts. They consolidated positions south of Hnylytsia, east and west of the railway, extending to a former fishery north of Kupyansk.

• Enemy offensive continued near Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zahryzove, and Kucherivka, with gains around Pervomayske.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Novomykhailivka, Makiivka, Katerynivka, Zarichne, Nevske, Torske, and Terny.  

• On the Siversk direction, Russian troops resumed assaults near Verkhnyokamianske, advanced in Rozdolivka, but failed near Spirne.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced south of Chasiv Yar, east of Bila Hora, and southeast of Stupochky.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced on Toretsk’s southern outskirts and near Krymske, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Nelipivka.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, assaults persisted in areas including Promin, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Kruty Yar, Sukhy Yar, Hryhorivka, Pustynka, Petrivka, Novooleksiivka, Yuryivka, Dachenske, Pushkyne, and Zhovte.

• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping attempts to flank and displace Ukraine’s 46^th Separate Airborne Brigade while engaging the 33rd Separate Mechanized and 79th Airborne Assault Brigades near Sontsivka (north) and Trudove and Uspenivka (south). The 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade counterattacked near Sontsivka, halting Russian progress. The “Tavriya” OSG holds Illinka amidst ongoing clashes.

• The enemy is securing positions in Voznesenka and Novoselydivka, entered Beretske, and continued offensives toward Dalnie.

• In Kurakhove, Russian forces advanced on the eastern outskirts, north of Illinka, and attacked near Zorya, Sontsivka, Novoselydivka, Berestky, Kreminna Balka, Voznesenka, Maksymilianivka, and toward Uspenivka.

• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces captured Novodaryivka, advanced near Antonivka, Maksymivka, south of Rivnopil, north of Levadne, and attacked Katerynivka, Yantarne, Konstyantynopil, Trudove, Makarivka, Novodaryivka, and Novopil.

• On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces moved towards Huliaypole, Marfopil, Dorozhnyanka, north of Robotyne, and near Novodanylivka and Novoandriivka.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, 1 including cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 2nd Artillery Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army operates near Zvanivka. 

• The 22nd Separate SOF Brigade is active on the Zaporizhzhia direction. 

• North Korea is beginning to supply the Russian Armed Forces with M-1978/1989 "Koksan"170 mm self-propelled artillery systems.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy's military command in the theater of operations until March 2025 will create conditions to achieve the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.

• Given the likelihood of Russian forces being redeployed from the Kupyansk and Lyman directions to the Kursk or Pokrovsk directions, the prospects for a large-scale offensive by the enemy remain unclear.

• If the enemy manages to advance to the Chervone–Stupochky line on the Kramatorsk direction and simultaneously begins intensive northward attacks at the junction of its 41st and 51st Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, reaching the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction, then the "Khortytsia" OSG will be forced to withdraw towards Kostyantynivka.

• The expected sequence of enemy actions for capturing Pokrovsk is as follows: first, the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army will break through to the area south of Pokrovsk. Afterward, the main forces of the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies will advance from the direction of Mykolaivka toward Myrnohrad (via Promin). Another possible maneuver could involve an advance from Hrodivka toward Novoekonomichne, with attempts to break through along the railway directly to Pokrovsk from the direction of Novohrodivka. Simultaneous operations are unlikely, as this would require allocating part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army to reinforce the 27th Motorized Rifle Division and to block or capture the Lysivka–Sukhy Yar area, weakening the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping on its main offensive line.

• “Tavriya” OSG will withdraw from its positions along the Yelyzavetivka–Konstyantynopil line to avoid encirclement. A retreat from Kurakhove, which has already served its strategic purpose in this stage of the war, is to be expected. By December, the front line will likely shift 30-35 km west of its current position. By November 20, “Tavriya” OSG will pull back from the northern shore of the Kurakhove Reservoir.

• Enemy’s “Yug (South)” and “Vostok (East)” Operational Groupings on the Kurakhove direction will soon require a regrouping of forces between operational zones. To encircle the “Tavriya” OSG in the Kurakhove area, the enemy grouping needs to transfer reserves from other operational directions.

• After capturing Kurakhove, the forces of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will focus on seizing Velyka Novosilka, which may occur in January 2025 following regrouping and replenishment of losses.

• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.11.24  

Personnel - almost 717,590 (+1,690); 

Tanks 9,330 (+11);

Armored combat vehicles – 18,968 (+21); 

Artillery systems – 20,492 (+20);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,252 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 999 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 29,167 (+77);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 329 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 18,886 (+34);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,641 (+1)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of November 15, Russian forces struck Odesa Oblast with two guided air-to-surface missiles X-59/69, and also attacked Ukraine with 29 Shahed-type strike drones. One missile and 25 drones were destroyed.

• On November 15, around 10:00, Russian military forces attacked Antonivka in Kherson Oblast with drones, resulting in the death of a 74-year-old woman.

• Throughout November 15, Russian forces struck the communities of the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast over a dozen times with Grad rockets and heavy artillery. As a result of the shelling, infrastructure, a municipal enterprise, and a farm building were damaged. There were no casualties or injuries.

• In the afternoon of November 15, Russian forces shelled the village of Malynivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with artillery. A 67-year-old man was killed while at home when enemy artillery struck the village.

• On the evening of November 14, in Kherson Oblast, Russian forces attacked a residential house in the village of Veletenske with a drone, resulting in the death of a woman born in 1949. A local resident born in 1953 suffered minor injuries and carbon monoxide poisoning.

• In the evening of November 14, Odesa was subjected to a massive combined enemy strike. A multi-story residential building in the city center was destroyed, causing fires in the apartments, with damage to several high-rise buildings. A main heating pipeline was also damaged. One person was killed, and 10 others, including two children, were injured.

• In Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, there are currently 11,500 local residents and 49 minors remaining. The pace of evacuation has slowed, although the city lacks centralized water supply, and there are interruptions with gas and electricity.

• Ukraine will need up to five years to clear four hundred mines in the Black Sea, with the help of other Black Sea countries, said Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmitry Pletenchuk. Due to the Russian sabotage of the Kakhovka Dam, in addition to sea mines, anchor river, anti-landing, and regular mines that had mined both banks of the Dnipro River ended up in the Dnipro-Bug Lyman and Black Sea waters. Therefore, the situation there is quite complicated.