Russia’s war on Ukraine. 15.10.25
Operational situation
On the Northern Slobozhansky direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced in the center of Oleksiivka and counterattacked near Kindrativka and Varachyne.
Russian troops attacked near Varachyne, Oleksiivka, Yunakivka. The 1st Combined Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation Armed Forces is being transferred to the Tetkino area to reinforce the 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps. Units of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade are regrouping near Kindrativka. The 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps is reinforced by units of the 119th Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division near Yunakivka.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, Russian troops tried to advance on the left bank of the Vovcha River in Vovchansk, near Synelnykove, on the Milove – Khatnie line, attacked in the direction of Bolohivka, and struck a bridge in Uda.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops attacked near Kupyansk, Zakhidne, Kamyanka, in the direction of Kutkivka, Kolodyazne, Dvorichanske, near Petropavlivka, Pishchane, in the direction of Kurylivka, Novoplatonivka, near Olhivka, Andriivka, and Hrekivka, and struck a bridge in Ambarne.
On the Lyman direction, Russian troops attacked in the direction of Lyman, near Serednie, Drobysheve, Derylove, Novoselivka, Karpivka, Shandryholove, Kolodyazi, Torske, Yampil.
On the Sloviansk direction, Russian troops tried to advance west of Dronivka, and attacked near Serebrianka, Hryhorivka, Vyimka, Pereyizne. A gray zone 5 km wide formed in the Serebrianka – Dronivka – Siversk area.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, Russian troops tried to advance northeast of Oleksandro-Shultyne, northwest of Kleban-Byk, and attacked near Kostyantynivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Stupochky, Predtechyne, Pleshchiivka, Shcherbynivka, Ivanopillia, in the direction of Berestky, near Rusyn Yar, Poltavka, in the direction of Mykolaypillya, near Volodymyrivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops continue to concentrate efforts in the Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka and Dobropillya areas, conducted assaults near Pankivka, south of Shakhove, Volodymyrivka, Dobropillya. The enemy tries to capture Shakhove with forces of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 155th Separate Marine Brigade, where it advanced eastward. The enemy fought for Balahan, tried to advance north and west of the village, south of Kozatske, on the eastern outskirts of Myrnohrad, north of Lysivka, and attacked near Nove Shakhove, Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk, Rodynske, Krasnyi Lyman, Sukhetske, Mykhailivka, Myroliubivka, Novoekonomichne, Promin, Novoukrainka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Russian troops fought for Sichneve, tried to advance in the northern direction east of Vyshneve, attacked Novopavlivka, near Novomykolaivka, Horikhove, Dachne, Filiya, Yalta, Novohatske, Ivanivka, Havrylivka, Velykomykhailivka, Oleksandrohrad, Sosnivka, Vorone, Stepove, Novomykolaivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces strike Russian positions in Andriivka-Klevtsove.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian troops tried to advance west of Novohryhorivka, on the eastern outskirts of Uspenivka, northwest of Okhotnyche, and attacked near Novovasylivske and Poltavka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced south of Stepnohirsk.
Russian troops attacked near Stepove, Stepnohirsk, and Prymorske.
On the Prydniprovske direction, Russian troops attacked near Antonivka and struck a UN humanitarian aid convoy near Bilozerka.
General conclusion:
Russian forces increase their attacks when it’s rainy or foggy, making it harder for Ukrainian Defense Forces to operate UAVs effectively.
On the Lyman direction, Russian troops took advantage of the windy weather and built a crossing over the river in the direction of Lyman and transferred armored vehicles and self-propelled artillery units.
Russian troops operating in the Dobropillya area, particularly troops of the 51st Combined Arms Army, tried to capture Shakhove.
Russian troops attack non-systemically with small infantry groups and halved the intensity of combat operations on the Sloviansk direction.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops activated attacks across the entire direction, suffering 18-20% greater losses over the last week.
Russian troops in Ternove unsuccessfully try to capture the village, increasing the intensity of attacks by 25-30%.
In the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian troops operate exclusively with small assault groups, trying to accumulate forces for the assault on Mala Tokmachka.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 182 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Northern Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, 5 combat engagements took place.
On the Southern Slobozhansky direction, 16 combat engagements took place near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, Zapadne, and Kutkivka, as well as in the direction of Kolodyazne and Bolohivka.
On the Kupyansk direction, 9 attacks by the occupiers took place. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the enemy’s assault actions in the areas of Pishchane, Kupyansk, and in the directions of Petropavlivka and Novoplatonivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 11 times, trying to advance in the directions of Lyman and Drobysheve and near Serednie, Shandryholove, Torske, and Kolodyazi.
On the Sloviansk direction, 6 enemy attacks were repelled. Units of the occupying forces tried to advance in the areas of Yampil, Pereyizne, Vyimka, Hryhorivka, and Fedorivka.
On the Kostyantynivka direction, the enemy carried out 16 attacks in the areas of Stupochky and Orikhovo-Vasylivka, in the direction of Kostyantynivka, Berestok, and near Shcherbynivka, Pleshchiivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar, and Poltavka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 69 aggressor assault and offensive actions were stopped in the areas of Volodymyrivka, Nove Shakhove, Nykanorivka, Chervonyi Lyman, Sukhetske, Dachne, Mykhailivka, Novoekonomichne, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Myrnohrad, Udachne, Molodetske, Horikhove, Novoukrainka, Filiya, and in the direction of Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 26 attacks near Ivanivka, Oleksandrohrad, Vorone, Verbove, Andriivka-Klevtsove, Zelene Hai, Maliivka, Yalta, Sichneve, Sosnivka, Novomykolayivka, Poltavka, and in the Krasnohirske direction.
On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy advanced 5 times near Stepove, Plavni, and Stepnohirsk.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces launched UAV strikes on the Morskyi Naftovyi Terminal enterprise in Feodosia, the P-18 radar station in Krasna Poliana, Crimea, an ammunition depot in Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast, and objects in Volgograd, Voronezh, and Rostov Oblast.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Units of the 25th BARS Detachment “Anvar” strike Ukrainian military infrastructure, equipment, and positions in Bilopillya, Khotin, and Pysarivka, Bolohivka, and the “Rubikon” Center for Advanced UAV Technologies strikes in Oleksiivka and in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army, the 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps, and the 22nd and 41st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps are redeployed from the north of Kharkiv Oblast to the Velykyi Burluk direction. The 3rd Battalion of the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division remains in the Northern Slobozhansky direction.
The 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian troops near Kupyansk.
The 85th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 3rd Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions west of Fedorivka.
The 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division and the 57th Separate SOF Company of the 8th Combined Arms Army strike Ukrainian positions near Sofiivka.
The 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions in the south of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 35th Combined Arms Army operates in the direction of Polohy.
The 4th Military Base of the 58th Combined Arms Army strikes Ukrainian positions near Shyroke, the 328th Air Assault Regiment of the 104th Air Assault Division, the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army, and the 61st Separate Marine Brigade operate on the Orikhiv direction.
The 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army operates in the island zone of the Dnipro River delta.
Possible operation situation developments:
According to the assessment of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, the enemy will not be able to achieve the goal of the so-called special military operation to capture the entire Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2025. Provided current dynamics of combat operations are maintained, the enemy will be able to capture Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Kupyansk no earlier than the end of the year and reach the close approaches to Zaporizhzhia and the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration by early winter.
On the Kupyansk direction, the forward units of the 6th Combined Arms Army will try to bypass Kupyansk as deeply as possible, primarily from the west and northwest in the direction of Radkivka – Myrne, in the general direction of the Chuhuiv – Kupyansk highway and take control of the Mala Shapkivka – Velyka Shapkivka – Kindrashivka – Tyshchenkivka area. Holding the Petropavlivka – Pishchane – Kolisnykivka – Kivsharivka area by the 10th Army Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces depends on the outcome of the battles in the Kupyansk area, therefore even the loss of Kupyansk will not lead to the loss of logistics for the tactical group of Ukrainian Defense Forces operating east of the Oskil River.
On the Lyman direction, troops of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will push into the area of Yarova – Novoselivka – Drobysheve – Pryshyb and will try to block Lyman from the northwest, cutting all main routes that do not cross the Siverskyi Donets River and reach the river on the widest possible front.
The ability of the 11th Army Corps to hold the Novoselivka – Stavky line is acquiring important operational significance.
Russian troops will try to cut off the H20 Kostyantynivka – Sloviansk highway. For this purpose, they will attack in the directions of Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka and Druzhkivka, complicating the logistics of the 19th Combined Arms Corps of the Defense Forces in Kostyantynivka, thereby contributing to the capture of the “fortress belt.” The enemy command prepares an offensive on Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka, which involves delivering concentric strikes simultaneously from the northeast, from the direction of Chasiv Yar, from the southeast, from the direction of Toretsk and the Kleban-Byk reservoir, and from the southwest, from the Poltavka – Novoolenivka line.
In the Dobropillya area, troops of the 51st Combined Arms Army will try to completely push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Sofiivka – Volodymyrivka – Pankivka – Shakhove area. The simultaneous activation of the offensive of the troops of the 2nd Combined Arms Army of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping in the areas of Zvirove, Troyanda, and in the direction of Chunyshyne – Novopavlivka indicates the enemy command’s intention to adhere to its plan for the Pokrovsk offensive operation going forward. The enemy will assault Pokrovsk with the main forces of the 2nd Combined Arms Army.
Taking advantage of the very weak coordination between the headquarters of the 51st and 8th Combined Arms Armies of the enemy, significant problems with the combat capability of its troops in the Dobropillya area, and the inability to break through to the western outskirts of Shakhove, Ukrainian Defense Forces can create conditions for the complete clearing of the enemy’s 51st Combined Arms Army bridgehead on the Kazennyi Torets River north of Myrnohrad and thereby remove the threat of encirclement of the Pokrovsk defense area.
On the Oleksandrivka direction, the “Vostok (East)” Operational Grouping will be forced to stretch the front, aiming to straighten its line in the northern direction, accelerating the advance of its left flank. The 5th Combined Arms Army will attack on a wide front in the directions of Komyshuvakha – Ternove and Zaporizhzhia – Berezove, in addition to continuing to fight for Novoivanivka and Novomykolayivka, while attempting to advance north of Olhivske.
On the Orikhiv direction, the “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue a local offensive operation, attempting to break through along the left bank of the Dnipro River from the Plavni – Kamianske line toward Stepnohirsk and from the Stepove – Mali Shcherbaky line in the northern direction.
On the Prydniprovske direction, the command of the enemy’s “Dnepr” Operational Grouping will continue trying to take control of most of the island zone in the Dnipro delta in the direction of Kherson, will try to create a tactical bridgehead on the right bank, and to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of the 30th Marine Corps of Ukrainian Defense Forces in the area of the automobile and railway bridges near Antonivka.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 15.10.25
Personnel - almost 1,126 220 (+1,070);
Tanks – 11,259 (+3);
Armored combat vehicles ‒ 23,375 (+2);
Artillery systems – 33,671 (+43);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,520 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,227 (+2);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 64,329 (+141);
Aircraft - 427 (0);
Helicopters – 346 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 70,021 (+389);
Intercepted cruise and other missiles – 3,859 (0);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
During the night, Russian troops massively attacked Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with UAVs. Ukrainian Air Defense Forces shot down 37 drones, but there were also hits, as a result of which a 19-year-old male was injured, energy infrastructure, an industrial and a transport enterprise were damaged, and fires were recorded in Pavlohrad, Kamianske, and Slavhorod community. In addition, the occupiers attacked Nikopol and Mezheve Districts with FPV-drones and Grad MLRS, causing a private house to catch fire.
On October 15, in Shostka District, Sumy Oblast, two people were injured, and an enterprise and residential buildings were damaged as a result of a Russian Federation attack.
Russian military forces attacked a man with a drone in Kherson on the morning of October 15; he was taken to the hospital in a moderate condition.
A Russian drone hit equipment in a field near the village of Hulyaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A man working on a tractor was injured. In total, almost two dozen people have been injured and about ten more have been killed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from drone attacks over the past month and a half.
The Russian army struck a civilian car with an FPV-drone in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, injuring a man.
In Putyvl community, Sumy Oblast, a Russian drone attacked a civilian car, resulting in injuries to three civilians.
Russian troops attacked gas stations in Chernihiv and a community with drones last night.
Over the past week, Russia has massively attacked the gas infrastructure of the Naftogaz group three times—in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts, and one of the company’s Combined Heat and Power Plants was struck on the night of October 15. According to CEO Serhiy Koretskyi, these objects have no connection to military targets, and the purpose of the attacks is to deprive Ukraine of gas, heat, and light in winter.
The Ministry of Energy noted that emergency power outages have been introduced in all regions, except Donetsk and parts of Chernihiv Oblasts. Hourly schedules continue to be in effect in Chernihiv Oblast.
In Donetsk Oblast, 16,400 civilians remain in the active combat zone, with no children among them anymore. In settlements of Donetsk Oblast where the mandatory evacuation of families with children is being carried out, 763 families with 965 children remain.
Yevhen Matviyev, the mayor of temporarily occupied Dniprorudne, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, died on September 7, 2024, in penal colony No. 3 in the city of Kizel, Perm Krai, Russian Federation, from numerous injuries and rib fractures that caused lung damage, the Prosecutor General’s Office reported. The pre-trial investigation is ongoing, and no suspects have been announced yet. Matviyev was in Russian captivity for more than two and a half years; his body was returned to Ukraine during an exchange in 2024.
In temporarily occupied Crimea, FSB officers conducted a series of searches in the homes of Crimean Tatars on the morning of October 15; four women were detained, including Esma Nimetullaieva, a mother of many children and the wife of political prisoner Remzi Nimetullaiev.