Russia's war on Ukraine. 15.10.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, there were two enemy attacks near Tykhe.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces launched 26 attacks, but Ukrainian defense forces successfully repelled all offensive actions in the areas of Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kolisnykivka, Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Pershotravneve, Lozova, and Vyshneve. On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 37 enemy attacks near Novoyehorivka, Novolyubivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, and Zarichne. The enemy concentrated most efforts on Nevske, where they launched 8 additional attacks. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 assaults near Verkhnyokamianske. On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy attempted 4 times to break through in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Dyliivka.
Near Shcherbynivka, on the Toretsk direction, Russian forces conducted 3 attacks.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 40 attacks of varying intensity in the areas of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Selydove, Hrodivka, Novotroitske, and Novopavlivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled attacks in the areas of Izmailivka, Hirnyk, Zoryane, Kurakhivka, Tsukuryne, Novodmytrivka, Novoselydivka, Antonivka, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Heorhiivka, and Vodyane, where the enemy attempted 50 attacks. The most active enemy actions were near Heorhiivka, Novodmytrivka, and Antonivka. On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks near Bohoyavlenka. On the Orikhiv direction, two clashes occurred near Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskyi direction, 8 Russian attacks failed.
On the Volyn and Polissya directions, the operational situation remained stable, and there were no signs of enemy offensive formations.
In Kursk Oblast, Russian aviation carried out 12 airstrikes, dropping 16 guided bombs on Russian territory.
General conclusion:
Russian forces concentrateу their efforts northwest of Kreminna in the directions of Balka Zhuravka and Makiivka, and to the south of Kreminna in the direction of Bilohorivka and the Serebriansk Forest.
In Kursk Oblast, the onset of autumn rains has begun. The use of Russian tracked vehicles gives them an advantage over Ukrainian wheeled vehicles in such conditions.
Russian troops focus more on defending the Kerch Strait Bridge than other critical infrastructure in Crimea. The Black Sea Fleet's capacity to protect the bridge is limited.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 198 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces have retaken Tolstyi Lug, Novyi Put, the area near Novoivanovka, Borki, Plekhovo, and conducted offensive actions near Kremiannoe, Liubimovka, Zelionyi Shliakh, Novoivanovka, Fanaseevka, and are displacing Ukrainian units from Vesioloe. The 11th Separate Air Assault Brigade is fighting for Cherkasskya Konopelka.
The "Siversk" OTG forces counterattacked near Olgovka, Liubimovka, Tolstyi Lug, Nizhniy Klin, Novyi Put, Zelionyi Shliakh, and Cherkasskya Konopelka.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops advanced in Vovchansk along Korolenko Street and attacked near Starytsya.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops advanced closer to the Oskil River near Kruhlyakivka and continued their offensive in the areas of Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Kolisnykivka, Kruhlyakivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, Vyshneve, Lozova, Myasozharivka, Synkivka, Kopanky, and Novoyehorivka.
On the Lyman direction, units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army advanced east of Novosadove. The enemy attacked near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Terny, Yampolivka, Torske, and Zarichne.
On the Siversk direction, the occupiers attacked the area of Verkhnyokamianske, but the attack was repelled.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian troops advanced along the T0504 Bakhmut – Kostyantynivka highway to the east of Chasiv Yar and in the fields southwest of Hryhorivka. They attacked near Chasiv Yar, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed out units of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army from their positions in the center of Toretsk.
Russian troops advanced on the southern outskirts of Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops conducted offensive actions in the areas of Promin, Novotoretske, Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Sukhoi Yar, Hirnyk, Lysivka, Selydove, Tsukuryne, Kreminna Balka, Izmailivka, Novohrodivka, Krutyi Yar, Novodmytrivka, Kurakhivka, Novoselydivka, Zhelanne Druhe, and Zoryane.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian troops were fighting to capture Ostrivske and attacked near Maksymilianivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian troops advanced northwest of Vodyane, northeast of Pryiutne, and north of Levadne. They continued their offensive in the areas of Kostyantynivka, Antonivka, Katerynivka, Vodyane, Bohoyavlenka, and Zolota Nyva.
The enemy is transferring reserves from Novoazovsk toward Vremivka and Polohy.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian troops unsuccessfully attacked near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodanylivka.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 3 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 12 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 106th Airborne Division operates near Liubimovka, while the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade is near Tolstyi Lug. The 810th Separate Marines Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, the 155th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, the 98th Airborne Division, and the 22nd Separate SOF Brigade are engaged in the Pokrovskoe area of Kursk Oblast.
The 16th Separate SOF Brigade conducts operations in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast, and the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps operates near Lyptsi, where up to 10% of the division's personnel have deserted and are currently being sought.
The 177th Separate Marines Regiment of the Caspian Fleet is advancing on Chasiv Yar. Meanwhile, the 1008th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Motorized Rifle Division, 3rd Army Corps, is advancing in the wooded area east of Stupochky.
Possible operation situation developments:
Ukrainian Defense Forces are expected to leave Toretsk and Selydove in the short term.
The enemy's military command in the theater of operations within the following 2-3 months will concentrate its efforts on achieving the military-political goal of the Special Military Operation: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. For this purpose, they will maximize their advance towards Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad, in the direction of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and aiming to reach the junction of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts near the village of Temyrivka.
The command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will likely attempt to build on its success after capturing the city of Vuhledar by advancing to the Kurakhove-Bohoyavlenka line. Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they are unlikely to achieve this without additional reserves.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024. October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.10.24
Personnel - almost 671,400 (+1,210);
Tanks 8,988 (+13);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,939 (+44);
Artillery systems – 19,430 (+9);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,231 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 978 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 26,654 (+32);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 329 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 17,019 (+10);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,620 (+1)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of October 15, Russian forces struck Mykolaiv Oblast with seven S-300/400 anti-aircraft guided missiles and two Kh-59 guided aerial missiles targeting Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, along with 17 strike UAVs. Twelve enemy drones were shot down in Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Odesa, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, and Cherkasy Oblasts. Four Russian drones were lost, likely due to active electronic warfare countermeasures. As of 8:30 AM, one UAV remains airborne.
On the night of October 15, Russian occupiers launched a missile strike on the city of Mykolaiv, killing one person and injuring 23 others. Fires broke out, and infrastructure, a restaurant complex, residential buildings, and vehicles were damaged.
On the morning of October 15, Russian military attacked a civilian car in the Dnipro District of Kherson using a drone, injuring a 76-year-old woman. In the afternoon, Russians dropped explosives from a UAV on the outskirts of Kherson, injuring an 18-year-old boy.
On the evening of October 15, Russian troops struck Komyshany in the suburbs of Kherson, severely wounding a 56-year-old man. He was hospitalized in critical condition.
As a result of an enemy attack on the Marhanets community in the Nikopol District of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a pregnant woman and a 4-year-old boy were injured. Both victims were hospitalized in moderate condition.
In Kharkiv Oblast, a mandatory evacuation was announced for all residents from four communities in the Kupyansk District, including the city of Kupyansk. Forced evacuation of families with children was announced from the Borova community.
The police inspected all the locations for which bomb threat reports were received on Monday, October 14, and all those claims were found to be false.
Over the past day, Russian troops carried out 27 shelling attacks using various weapons on the border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and parts of Kharkiv Oblasts, resulting in a total of 75 explosions. Additionally, the Russian army launched 366 strikes on 9 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on October 14.