Russia's war on Ukraine. 15.09.24
Operational situation
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" 3 combat clashes occurred in the area of Vovchansk on the Kharkiv direction.
In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone there were 17 enemy attacks on the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assaults near Kolisnykivka, Stelmakhivka, Lozova, and Synkivka. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 19 times, attempting to advance near Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Zarichne, Cherneshchyna, Serebryanka, and Terny. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy assaults near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, and Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked twice near Chasiv Yar and Andriivka. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, conducted 12 attacks near Druzhba, Dachne, Nelipivka, and Toretsk.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 41 enemy assaults towards Sukha Balka, Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Novooleksandrivka, Novotoretsk, Hrodivka, Krasnyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Mykhailivka, and Marynivka. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 39 attacks near Selydove, Ukrainsk, Krasnohorivka, Dolynivka, Zhelanne Druhe, Heorhiivka, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, and Zhelanne Pershe. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted 6 assaults on Defense Forces positions near Vodyane, Zolota Nyva, Katerynivka, and Vuhledar. Verkhnya Tersa on the Hulyaipole direction was struck by guided bombs. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy launched unguided air rocket strikes on Pyatykhatky and Lobkove.
In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian invaders attacked 8 times but were met with fierce resistance and suffered losses.
General conclusion:
The successful advance of "Siversk" OTG in the area of Vesioloe – Pavlivka – Obody poses a threat of encirclement for the enemy's tactical group (up to 8,000 military personnel), which is engaged in combat near Komarovka – Snagost – Liubimovka – Vladimirovka – Kulbaki.
The occupation of the entire Donetsk Oblast remains the strategic objective of the enemy.
The command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping is focusing on cutting off the Kharkiv–Rostov highway in the Sloviansk area and/or the railway line between Lyman and Svyatohirsk, which will aid in achieving their strategic goal.
The command of the "Tsentr (Center)" Operational Grouping has halted active attempts to advance towards Pokrovsk and has focused its efforts on Selydove and Kurakhove. The highway to Kostyantynivka is under enemy fire control. Further advancement at any price puts the grouping at risk of a flanking strike by Ukrainian Defense Forces from the Selydove area. Capturing Kurakhove would significantly complicate "Tavriya" OSG logistics and combat support in Donetsk Oblast and open up the highway to Zaporizhzhia.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy is avoiding frontal assaults on Ukrainsk, instead attempting to push back Ukrainian Defense Forces by focusing on flanking maneuvers, creating a threat of encirclement.
The enemy strikes bridges in and around Pokrovsk to complicate Ukraine's logistics on the Pokrovsk direction.
Russian forces repair captured Soviet-era Ukrainian equipment. According to Russian officials, approximately 30% of the BMPs, BTRs, and tanks captured by the "Yug (South)" grouping have been restored. Most of this equipment was supplied by former Warsaw Pact member countries.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 164 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, "Siversk" OTG continues its advance in the Glushkovo district of Kursk Oblast. It has reached the southern outskirts of Vesioloe and has practically taken control of it, advanced west of Medvezhie, in the fields south of Tiotkino, and continued assaults near Medvezhie, Vesioloe, Obukhovka, and Novy Put. The 56th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division and units of the 106th Airborne Division repel Ukrainian assaults in the Glushkovo district.
"Siversk" OTG troops continued to advance north of Sudzha, capturing Cherkasskoe Porechie, and continued attacking near Apanasovka, Liubimovka, Obukhovka, Maryivka, and Russkaya Konopelka.
Russian forces entered western Liubimovka, advanced to the southwestern outskirts of Liubimovka, and moved into the fields northwest of Daryino. The 810th Separate Marine Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is defending in the Borki area.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Lyptsi, Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Hatyshche.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced south of Pishchane, continuing offensive actions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Stelmakhivka, towards Lozova, near Kopanky, and close to Druzhelyubivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced in the area of the Serebriansk Forest and attacked near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Novosadove, Nevske, Terny, Zarichne, Yampolivka, Torske, and Serebryanka.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces advanced in the woods northwest of Bilohorivka, pushing Ukrainian Defense Forces beyond the Siversky Donets River, holding positions on both sides of the river north and northwest of Bilohorivka. The enemy continued attacks near Verkhnyokamianske, Vyimka, and Spirne.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces achieved minor successes south of Hryhorivka near the "Siversky Donets – Donbas" canal and advanced south of the village, crossing the canal west of Klishchiivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in Chasiv Yar and near Andriivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Toretsk, Druzhba, and Nelipivka but faied.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces attacked and captured several positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces northwest of Ukrainsk, advancing westward on the northern flank. The enemy captured Zhelanne Pershe, attacked near Sukha Balka, Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Novooleksandrivka, Hrodivka, Myrolyubivka, Selydove, Novohrodivka, Krasnyi Yar, Marynivka, Mykhailivka, Dolynivka, Zhelanne Pershe, Zhelanne Druhe, Ukrainsk, and in the direction of Novotroitske.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces are preparing to resume assault operations west of Donetsk, conducting artillery preparations, including the use of TOS-1A thermobaric systems west of Krasnohorivka to prepare for renewed offensives on Heorhiivka, Oleksandropil, and Maksymilianivka. They attacked near Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Vodyane, near the "Pivdennodonbaska" No. 3 mine (Surkhai) west of Vodyane, and near the "Pivdennodonbaska" No. 1 mine (northeast of Vuhledar and south of the No. 3 mine). Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are active west of Krasnohorivka.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces advanced west of Prechystivka and attacked near Vuhledar and Zolota Nyva.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 16 ships, including 7 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 48 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 5 ships, 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
The command of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is relocating combat ships and support vessels from the port of Novorossiysk to Gelendzhik and Sochi.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Units of the 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps, operating near Hlyboke, face instances of desertion due to poor supply conditions, low psychological resilience, and lack of motivation.
Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army continue to operate along the Svatove–Kreminna line. The 245th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 47th Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army operates near Makiivka.
The 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army advances near Ukrainsk.
Units of the 247th Air Assault Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division operate near Verbove.
Forces of the 29th Combined Arms Army advance near Vuhledar.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy's command on the theater of operations must conduct strategic regrouping between operational zones and reinforce the "Tsentr (Center)"Operational Grouping on the Toretsk direction with at least a corps. For this purpose, the 3rd Army Corps may be redeployed to this direction from the Kramatorsk direction, or the main forces of the 51st Army may be concentrated.
"Tavriya" OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the "Tavriya" OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
The enemy will likely attempt to encircle “Tavriya” OSG units on the eastern bridgehead of the Vovcha River, advancing towards Nevelske. They plan to engage the main forces of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army to secure the right flank of the 2nd Combined Arms Army in the Selidove area along the Hirnyk-Kurakhivka line. Meanwhile, the 2nd Combined Arms Army will continue to push its offensive towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
We should expect enemy attempts to repeat the tactical maneuver they used at the beginning of the assault on Chasiv Yar: concentrating a large grouping of forces in a narrow sector, creating high tactical density in their formations, while deploying reserves dispersed along the entire front. Until then, the enemy will continue its frontal assault towards Pokrovsk from the southeast, advancing along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway in a relatively narrow corridor (up to 5 km wide) between the Solonenka and Zhuravka rivers.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.09.24
Personnel - almost 633,380 (+1,170);
Tanks 8,680 (+6);
Armored combat vehicles – 17,063 (+20);
Artillery systems – 18,109 (+23);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,186 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 947 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,684 (+53);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 328 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 15,234 (+85);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,592 (+1);
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
This week, Russia launched around 30 missiles of various types, over 800 guided aerial bombs, and nearly 300 attack drones against Ukraine, said President Volodymyr Zelensky.
On the night of September 15, the occupiers struck Odesa Oblast with two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles, one Kh-59 guided missile, and also launched 14 "Shahed" attack drones. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down one Kh-59 guided missile and 10 attack drones.
As a result of Russian airstrikes using guided bombs on Kharkiv on Sunday, a residential building was damaged. One person was killed, and 42 were injured, including three children. Damage was also reported to civilian infrastructure in the Nemyshlyanskyi district.
In the Dnipro district of Kherson, an elderly woman was injured by an explosive device dropped from a drone. At the time of the strike, she was on the street. The 82-year-old woman suffered blast and head injuries, a forehead wound, and a concussion.
Over the past day, the occupiers launched 275 strikes on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Three men, aged 41, 59, and 61, were killed as a result of enemy shelling in the Polohy district.
Russians have started opening branches of the largest state banks in the occupied territories of Ukraine. While many Russian brands continue to avoid the occupied areas of Ukraine, fearing Western sanctions and the risks of doing business in a conflict zone, Russia's two largest state lenders, "Sberbank" and "VTB," have started opening branches. Previously, large Russian retailers, banks, and other companies were cautious about openly operating in Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine.