Russia's war on Ukraine. 15.05.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Tetkino and Novyi Put.
On the Belgorod direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces attacked near Popovka.
On Sumy direction, Russian forces attempted to advance near Loknia and to the southern outskirts of Bilovody.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces are trying to advance near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Zakhidne, attacked near Topoli, Petrivka, Pishchane, Hlushkivka, Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Novoserhiyivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Olkhivka, and attempted to advance southeast of Zelenyi Hai.
On the Lyman direction, the 254th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army slightly advanced near Kolodiazi, attacked near Ridkodub, Lypove, Zelena Dolyna, Lozova, Yampolivka, Novomykhailivka, and the Serebriansk Forest.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Hryhorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attempted to advance north of Chasiv Yar and northwest of Ozaryanivka, attacked near Hryhorivka, Bila Hora, and Kurdyumivka.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced north of Toretsk, west of Yablunivka, southwest of Zoria, and attempted to advance southeast of Oleksandropil, near Romanivka, attacked near Krymske, Dyliivka, Bila Hora, Stara Mykolaivka, Nova Poltavka, Novoolenivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Hnativka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Romanivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced on the western outskirts of Myrne, in the center of Lysivka.
Russian forces are fighting for Mykhailivka, Malynivka, and attempted to advance northeast, north, and northwest of Myrne, towards Novoekonomichne, attacked near Promin, Myroliubivka, Novotoretske, Mykolaivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, and Udachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces entered Novoserhiyivka, advanced in the southern part of Bahatyr, attempted to advance near Odradne, and attacked near Muravka, Novomykolayivka, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, Orikhove, Bohdanivka, Konstyantynopil, Andriivka, and Oleksiivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Kotlyarivka, northwest of Bahatyr.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces advanced east of Zelene Pole, attempted to advance further east and northwest of Zelene Pole, east of Novopil, and continued attacking near Skudne, Vesele, Komar, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Shevchenkove, Novosilka, Novopil, Rivnopil.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked towards Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, near Stepove, Shcherbaky, and Kamianske.
On the Prydniprovske direction, Russian forces attempted to advance on the islands in the Dnipro River delta, attacked in the direction of Sadove.
General conclusion:
The enemy command is enhancing the training and equipping of its assault units, adapting them for modern combat. Assault squads are being supplied with light vehicles and motorcycles, boosting their mobility to rapidly cross the distance from the line of departure to the frontline trenches of Ukrainian Defense Forces. The objective is to increase the number of dispersed targets to overwhelm defensive fire control in targeted areas. Typically, 1–2 assault squads operate concurrently from each assault company.
The enemy is accumulating reserves on the Kharkiv direction.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces have reduced the use of armored vehicles and increasingly use light vehicles and motorcycles.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces have concentrated assault units of four regiments in the border zone of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 168 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted offensive actions three times near Vovchansk and Kamyanka.
On the Kupyansk direction, there was one Russian attack. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Hlushkivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 24 times, attempting to advance near Nova Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Kolodiazi, Yampolivka, Ridkodub, and in the direction of Hryhorivka.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked five times in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Bilohorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, eight combat clashes were recorded near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, Bila Hora, and Kurdyumivka.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy carried out 19 attacks near Toretsk, Krymske, and Dyliivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 74 enemy assault and offensive actions were stopped in the areas of Stara Mykolaivka, Yelyzavetivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, and Andriivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attacked 26 times near Bahatyr, Novopil, Burlatske, and Vilne Pole.
On the Orikhiv direction, three enemy assaults were repelled near Stepove.
On the Prydniprovske direction, one enemy attack was stopped.
On the Kursk direction, nine combat clashes occurred. The enemy carried out six airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.
The enemy deployed navigation equipment, surface target detection systems, and electronic warfare systems on the "Petro Hodovanets" and "Syvash" gas condensate platforms, which enhanced the effectiveness of its surveillance, detection, and neutralization systems against Ukrainian Navy unmanned surface vessels in the Black Sea. Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully carried out a special operation, destroying this equipment and the platform security.
Supporting operation:
There were no strikes.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
Russian military command has developed standard staffing norms for the equipment of assault units. Thus, each battalion in a separate motorized rifle brigade is supposed to have an assault company equipped with motorcycles – up to 30 units, ATVs – up to 20 units, buggies (of all types) – up to 6 units. Non-standard assault detachments are equipped at the following rate: motorcycles – up to 9 units, ATVs – up to 20 units, buggies (of all types) – up to 6 units. Assault units of type V (staffed with former prisoners) are equipped at the following rate: motorcycles – up to 15 units, ATVs – up to 20 units, buggies (of all types) – up to 3 units.
The 3rd Army Corps, which operates on the Siversk and Kramatorsk directions, includes the 4th, 6th, 85th, 88th, 123rd, 127th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, the 1102nd, 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiments, which have 29 assault companies, 13 assault companies of type V, and up to 6 separate assault platoons/groups. They are armed with up to 1125 motorcycles, 975 ATVs, and about 210-215 buggies (of all types, including "homemade" and golf carts). A typical motorized rifle brigade set (up to 3 assault companies, a minimum of 2 assault companies of type V, and 1-2 assault platoons) usually includes 129 motorcycles, 120 ATVs, and 30 buggies. Each motorized rifle regiment of the 3rd Army Corps has up to 90 motorcycles, up to 60 ATVs, and about 33-36 buggies as part of its assault units.
The 234th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division and the 204th Special Purpose Regiment "Akhmat" operate near Tetkino.
The 656th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 29th Army and the 14th Separate SOF Brigade are advancing towards Shakhtarsk.
The 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army operates near Kakhovka. The naval detachment of the 88th Volunteer Brigade "Española" (previously operated in the Chasiv Yar area) uses UAVs over the Black Sea.
Possible operation situation developments:
The plan for the enemy's spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping through Lyman. Russian forces may attempt to advance near Kupyansk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, or toward the city of Zaporizhzhia. The Pokrovsk direction is viewed by Ukraine’s military-political leadership as the absolute priority for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Additionally, Russian forces intend to create a buffer zone in the north of Sumy Oblast and pose a threat to the city of Sumy in the coming months.
The enemy will maintain its offensive in northern Sumy Oblast to establish a buffer zone along the Yunakivka – Khrapivshchyna – Radkivka – Mohrytsya line, extending along the Psel River. The command of the "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping is focusing on seizing control of the Bilovody – Loknia – Yunakivka – Yablunivka sector, as well as the eastern portion of the forested area west of Mohrytsya. Their objective is to push forward to the Velyka Rybytsya – Myropillya line along the Psel River. The enemy is also attempting to break through towards Vorozhba and Bilopillya to disrupt the Sumy – Novhorod-Siverskyi supply route.
On the Kupyansk direction, the command of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping intends to encircle the tactical group of "Khortytsia" OSG which is defending along the Novoyehorivka – Hrekivka line. To achieve this, they plan to advance with the 144th Motorized Rifle Division from the bridgehead near Nove towards the heights near the village of Cherneshchyna, and with the 4th Tank Division advancing in converging directions: Raihorodka – Cherneshchyna and Pershotravneve – Kopanky.
On the Lyman direction, the forces of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping will advance towards Karlivka and Drobysheve, aiming to reach the Karlivka – Shandryholove – Drobysheve line while simultaneously advancing near Torske to approach Lyman from the east. The 25th Combined Arms Army will attempt to break through the communication lines of the "Khortytsia" OSG tactical group, which is defending in the Dibrova – Yampil direction and in the area of the Serebriansk Forest. The enemy will attempt to advance on both banks of the Chornyi Zherebets River, moving towards the general directions of Yampolivka – Torske and Ivanivka – Zarichne. The main grouping of the army will operate on its right flank, attempting to break through from the north to the Lyman – Kreminna road in the Zarichne – Torske section, while simultaneously tying down the "Khortytsia" OSG forces in the center and on the left flank of the operational zone with frontal engagements.
On the Siversk direction, the command of the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping will attempt to eliminate the Siversk salient held by "Khortytsia" OSG and break through towards the Sloviansk – Kramatorsk agglomeration and to Kostyantynivka, delivering its main strike in the area of Chasiv Yar. The 3rd Combined Arms Army of the enemy will try to break through to Kostyantynivka from Chasiv Yar, but it is unlikely to achieve its operational goals without reinforcements, such as the return of the 106th Airborne Division from the Kursk direction or strategic reserves. The 3rd Army will attempt to advance to the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River between Yampil and Hryhorivka and from the southeast towards Siversk. The command of the "Yug" Operational Grouping is also concentrating forces in the areas of Soledar, Rozdolivka, and Zaliznyanske to strike from the south along the Bakhmutka River towards Siversk. The offensive may begin with the advance of the forward units of the 127th and 6th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 3rd Army towards Siversk from the east and southeast. The immediate objective for the enemy is to capture Pereyizne and Fedorivka, with the subsequent goal of advancing to the Zvanivka – Vyimka line.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping and the 3rd Army, in particular, may soon change the direction of their main strike and shift it to the north of Chasiv Yar, launching an offensive on both sides of the Bakhmut–Sloviansk road along the Orikhovo-Vasylivka–Minkivka and Blahodatne–Pryvillya directions, which would allow them to break through to the forward approaches of Sloviansk directly from the southeast and create a real threat to the “Siversk” Operational Tactical Grouping (OTG) of Ukrainian Defense Forces by executing a deep flanking maneuver on its right flank. If the enemy manages to achieve operational surprise in these directions and advance to tactical depth, the situation in the Kolodyazi–Hryhorivka sector on the Lyman direction could radically deteriorate for the “Khortytsia” OSG.
The command of the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping will continue its offensive on the Toretsk direction with two tactical groups — one in the Toretsk area (main group), and another in the Vozdvyzhenka area (group on a secondary direction). The first group will attempt a breakthrough toward Pleshchiivka, bypassing the Kleban-Byk reservoir from the east; the second will push toward the Novoolenivka area, bypassing the reservoir from the west along the Pokrovsk–Bakhmut highway. The enemy will attempt to outflank the prepared “Khortytsia” OSG defenses from the east, along lines based on a cascade of small reservoirs and ponds along the Bychok River, generally in the Toretsk–Kostyantynivka direction, aiming to reach the intermediate line Pleshchiivka–Bila Hora. Its forward units will attempt to advance through Shcherbynivka toward Pleshchiivka and along the Dachne–Dyliivka railway. In the near future, the enemy will focus on seizing Shcherbynivka and Novospaske. If unsuccessful, the main axis of the attack may shift to the zone of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division near Vozdvyzhenka, or the enemy may focus on dismantling the “Khortytsia” OSG’s defenses along the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal, advancing from south to north.
The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the "Khortytsia" OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 15.05.25
Personnel - almost 970,590 (+1,220);
Tanks – 10,812 (+8);
Armored combat vehicles – 22,514 (+13);
Artillery systems – 27,872 (+45);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,384 (+2);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,166 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 48,547 (+165);
Aircraft - 372 (0);
Helicopters – 336 (+1);
UAV operational and tactical level – 36,000 (+140);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,197 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of May 15, Russians attacked Ukraine with 110 Shahed-type strike drones and various types of decoy drones. As of 8:00 AM, 62 strike drones were confirmed shot down. Twenty-nine enemy decoy drones were lost from radar without negative consequences. As a result of the enemy attack, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Kyiv, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts were affected.
The nighttime attack by Russian drones caused fires and destruction in Poltava Oblast and Kyiv Oblast—residential buildings, forests, and cars caught fire, and several private properties were damaged. There were no reported civilian casualties.
During the day on May 15, in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, Russian forces dropped explosives from a drone on a 71-year-old local resident who was riding a bicycle. The man suffered blast trauma, a concussion, and shrapnel wounds to his legs.
Russians carried out an artillery strike on Kherson around 12:50 PM. A 49-year-old woman sustained injuries incompatible with life.
As a result of the massive nighttime drone attack by Russian forces on Velyka Cherneshchyna in the Sumy community, three enterprises were damaged. One of them was a down and feather processing facility. Warehouses, equipment, and raw materials were burned.
On May 15, Russian forces attacked the Nikopol and Synelnykove districts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In Synelnykove district, a woman was killed. Private houses and businesses were damaged.
On the evening of May 14, the Mezhova community of the Synelnykove district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was shelled with MLRS, and at night it was hit by a drone. A fire partially destroyed the cultural center. About a dozen private houses, stores, and cars were damaged.
On May 14, 2025, around 9:50 PM, Russian forces attacked a car delivering humanitarian aid in the Beryslav district of Kherson Oblast with a drone. The 48-year-old driver was injured and hospitalized.
In Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, due to constant Russian strikes on the city, the city hospital had to be closed. Just in the previous day alone, 18 guided bombs were launched at the community.
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine has been dependent on a single power transmission line for more than a week, which supplies electricity for the station's critical nuclear safety functions. The IAEA reported that damage to the second line occurred in Ukrainian-controlled territory, far from the plant, and that the Ukrainian power grid operator currently cannot conduct repairs due to active military operations in the area.