Russia's war on Ukraine. 15.04.25

Operational situation

On the Kursk direction, Russian troops advanced southwest of Guevo and are trying to dislodge Ukrainian Defense Forces from the Sviatomykolaivskyi Monastery northeast of Hornal. Fighting continued near Oleshnia and Basivka. The enemy attempted to advance near Zhuravka, Loknia, Basivka, and Veselivka. The enemy controls 43.61 km² of Sumy Oblast.

Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions in Hornal and Oleshnia, counterattacked near Vodolaha, launched a missile strike on the command post of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps in Guevo, and an airstrike on the enemy concentration area in Tetkino.

On the Belgorod direction, Russian forces are fighting in Popovka and Demidovka and attempted to advance northwest of Demidovka.

Ukrainian Defense Forces hold positions on the western outskirts of Popovka.

On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops advanced near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory.

On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Stepova Novoselivka, attacked near Petropavlivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Nadiya, Serhiivka, and Hrekivka.

On the Lyman direction, forward units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army continue active offensive/assault actions in the Novolyubivka–Nove direction and are attempting to advance toward Ivanivka–Zelena Dolyna. Over the past three days, the occupiers have achieved minimal results. The enemy only slightly expanded its tactical wedge in the direction of Katerynivka, advancing from Novolyubivka.

The 164th and 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 25th Combined Arms Army, with active support from the 31st and 37th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division, intensively attack in the direction of Yampolivka–Torske and south of Yampolivka. The enemy managed to break through to the Chornyi Zherebets River in the Yampolivka–Torske sector, thereby creating a direct threat of encircling the left flank of the "Khortytsia" OSG units, which continue to hold positions in the Serebriansk Forest.

On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced southwest of Bilohorivka.

Russian troops advanced west of Bilohorivka, south of Hryhorivka, and attacked near Verkhnyokamianske.

On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assaults in the areas of Stupochky and Klishchiivka.

Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar, Andriivka, and Predtechyne.

On the Toretsk direction, the command of the enemy’s 8th and 51st Combined Arms Armies continues active offensive operations south of Toretsk, aiming to completely eliminate the "Khortytsia" OSG on both sides of the N20 highway from Kostyantynivka to Avdiivka, with the objective of moving their forward units to at least the Stara Mykolaivka–Sukha Balka line and further developing the offensive toward Romanivka.

Units and subunits of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army, engaged in the operational zone of the 51st Combined Arms Army, have begun delivering the enemy their first tangible results. The enemy managed to capture Oleksandropil, Panteleymonivka, and Valentynivka, completely pushed Ukrainian Defense Forces units beyond the N20 road from the east and began direct fighting for the village of Sukha Balka. Notably, in the Kalynove–Stara Mykolaivka direction, forward units of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army also began intensive offensive and assault actions, trying to break through northward along the N20 highway. Additionally, units of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division continue to advance north of Vozdvyzhenka toward Baranivka–Tarasivka and the hamlet of Zelene Pole–Oleksandropil, clearly trying to break through both sides of the T0504 road northward toward Novoolenivka and Nova Poltavka.

Several units of the 132nd, 5th, and 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army continue to operate alongside the 8th Combined Arms Army formations

On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops made minor advances on the western outskirts of Lysivka, attacked near Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Zelene Pole, Novotoretske, Kalynove, Vodyane Druhe, toward Malynivka, Stara Mykolaivka, Oleksandropil, near Novoukrainka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, and Udachne.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Yelyzavetivka.

On the Novopavlivka direction, during the past week, forward elements of the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army managed to advance at least 4 km in the Nadiivka–Kotlyarivka direction, in coordination with units of the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army north of the Vovcha River in the Andriivka area, continuing intensive attacks northwestward, trying to flank Ukrainian units defending south of the river near Konstyantynopil. The main threat to them came from the south of the river, where forward units of the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army and the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping not only managed to break through to Rozlyv but also reached the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk highway in the Bahatyr–Konstyantynopil section, significantly complicating the further defense of Konstyantynopil.

On the Huliaypole direction, Russian troops attempted to advance south and southwest of Odradne, east of Shevchenkove, and attacked near Vesele, Burlatske, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Novopil, and Novosilka.

To the west, where the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping are trying to advance north on both banks of the Mokri Yaly River toward Komar and Odradne, the main developments are related to the struggle for the flanking area of Shevchenkove–Burlatske–Pryvilne–Vilne Pole. In the attack zone of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division of the 5th Combined Arms Army, its forward units managed to bypass Vilne Pole from the north, but their assault on the village was repelled by Ukrainian Defense Forces. Simultaneously, parts of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division were forced to fight for Burlatske and Pryvilne, which prevented them from focusing on a northern offensive toward Vesele and Fedorivka, where the enemy tries to advance in the Dniproenerhiya–Vesele direction and simultaneously attempts to bypass from the south along the western bank of the Mokri Yaly River.

Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Odradne.

On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attempted to advance north of Nesteryanka and attacked near Kamyanka, Stepove, Lobkove, Shcherbaky, and Mali Shcherbaky.

General conclusion:

• Over the past week, the enemy has sharply increased activity on multiple fronts. It remains unclear whether this surge is related to the completion of the Kursk operation by the Ukrainian “Siversk” Operational-Tactical Group (OTG) or if the enemy possesses operational or strategic reserves. However, it can be stated that the enemy’s escalation of offensive operations across most operational axes is clearly influenced not only by operational-strategic conditions but also by military-political factors.

• The enemy’s military command in the theater of operations is attempting to simultaneously conduct a buffer zone operation in Sumy Oblast, shaping operations on the Lyman, Kupyansk, and Zaporizhzhia directions, and continuing offensive action along the flanks of the “Tsentr (Center)” and “Vostok (East)” Operational Groupings along the Zaporizhzhia – Donetsk highway.

• The overall situation on the Lyman direction is defined by two key factors directly related to the offensive from the left (southern) flank of the enemy’s “Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping. The enemy continues advancing not toward Lyman but toward Borova. The 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army and the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army, which also attacks toward Borova from the Lozova – Pershotravneve line, operate in coordination under a single plan. The expansion of the enemy’s bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River and the capture of Terny and Yampolivka by forces of the 25th Army pose a direct threat to the tactical group of the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group (OSG), which is defending the Serebriansk Forest area south of the Kreminna – Lyman road on the river’s eastern bank.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy’s “Yug (South)” Operational Grouping command anticipates reinforcements through the redeployment of the 106th Airborne Division from the Kursk direction.

• The enemy is making significant efforts to fully capture Toretsk. Intense fighting is ongoing in the vicinity of Krymske, Dachne, Zabalka, and the northwestern outskirts of the city.

• The situation assessment in the Toretsk direction indicates that an offensive toward Kostyantynivka has begun from Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka. Its development and overall outcome will depend on the performance of the 8th Army's formations. Fighting to the south, southeast, and southwest of Kostyantynivka will require the enemy to concentrate all available forces and will be comparable in intensity to battles south and southwest of Pokrovsk.

• The Russian military command is making efforts to link the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine with Russia and Belarus via rail. A transport corridor is planned through Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts to Crimea, and from there northward to the Russian and Belarusian railway networks. Current efforts are focused on the section between Mariupol, Berdiansk, and Melitopol, where Russian railway troops reconstruct Soviet-era infrastructure. The emphasis is on creating a continuous supply route for the eastern and southern fronts—essentially establishing a lateral railway line parallel to the front line to ensure the mobility and logistics of troops.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 99 combat engagements on various fronts.

• On the Kupyansk direction, the aggressor attempted to move forward toward Nova Kruhlyakivka, where Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped the enemy attack.

• On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces positions 20 times near Nadiya, Nove, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Torske, Bilohorivka, and Hryhorivka.

• On the Siversk direction, 2 attacks by occupation forces were repelled near Verkhnyokamianske and Ivano-Dariivka.

• On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy attacked 4 times near Chasiv Yar, Andriivka, and toward Mayske.

• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian positions 11 times in the areas of Ozaryanivka and Toretsk. All enemy attacks were successfully repelled.

• On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy attempted to advance near Sukha Balka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, and Andriivka.

• On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attempted to break through the defenses 7 times near the settlements of Konstyantynopil and Rozlyv.

• On the Orikhiv direction, 7 enemy assaults were repelled toward Stepove, Lobkove, and Mali Shcherbaky. Novoandriivka came under airstrikes.

• On the Prydniprovske direction, 2 enemy attacks were repelled.

• On the Kursk direction, 17 battles occurred. In addition, the enemy launched 48 airstrikes.

• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.

Supporting operation:

• Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted UAV airstrikes on the “Soyuz” industrial technopark in the city of Kursk. The technopark houses the “Kursk Electromechanical Plant” JSC (electronic components production), “ELAT-INSTRUMENT” Closed JSC (metal products assembly), “Kursk Composite Materials Plant” LLC (production of plastics, resins, and composite materials), and the “Energy Center” LLC. Due to the low professional level of Russian air defense units, strike UAVs were intercepted over residential areas, causing debris to hit civilian homes.

• Targets in Moscow, Bryansk, Oryol, and Voronezh oblasts were also attacked.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• The 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps, and the 177th Separate Marines Regiment of the Caspian Fleet operate near Guevo. The 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division is engaged in combat at the Sviatomykolaivskyi Monastery. The 1434th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Army, is active near Veselivka, Volodymyrivka, and Vodolaha.

• The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Army operates near Demidovka and Popovka. The 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 44th Army Corps and the 25th BARS unit are also active near Popovka.

• The 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, 11th Army Corps, and the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank operate on the Kupyansk direction. The volunteer battalion “Sheikh Mansur” is active near Stroyivka.

• On the Lyman direction, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division is comprised of the 254th, 283rd, 488th, and 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiments, the 59th Tank Regiment, and the 148th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion. The 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment operates without 1–2 of its battalions.

• The 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army is advancing along the Tarasivka – Stara Mykolaivka – Oleksandropil line.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The plan for the enemy's spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping through Lyman. Russian forces may attempt to advance near Kupyansk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, or toward the city of Zaporizhzhia. The Pokrovsk direction is viewed by Ukraine’s military-political leadership as the absolute priority for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Additionally, Russian forces intend to create a buffer zone in the north of Sumy Oblast and pose a threat to the city of Sumy in the coming months.

• In Sumy Oblast, key enemy objectives that could provide stability to a buffer zone may include the heights between Yunakivka and Khrapivshchyna, the wooded area to the northeast of Sumy from Radkivka to Mohrytsya, and the Psel River. Based on this, the enemy’s operational tasks in this direction may include taking control of the area of Bilovody – Loknia – Yunakivka – Yablunivka, seizing at least the eastern part of the wooded area west of Mohrytsya, and reaching the line of Velyka Rybytsya – Myropillya along the Psel River. The enemy may also attempt to break through from the border toward Vorozhba and Bilopillya and cut off the operational lateral route between Sumy and Novhorod-Siverskyi. The implementation of such a plan would require the enemy command to covertly deploy a strike force in the area of Tiotkino.

• Ukrainian Defense Forces may launch an offensive in the direction of Lyman Pershyi – Horobivka – Tavilzhanka, which, if successful, will lead to either the enemy's rapid retreat from the Dvorichna bridgehead or its encirclement there. Such a development would result in the loss of combat capability of the entire enemy's 6th Combined Arms Army.

• On the Lyman direction, the enemy will attempt to advance toward Karlivka from Nove and toward Drobysheve from Kolodyazi, aiming to reach and establish a foothold along the Karlivka–Shandryholove–Drobysheve line, while simultaneously intensifying the offensive near Torske and advancing on Lyman from the east. Forward units of the 25th Army are expected to attempt a coordinated river crossing over the Chornyi Zherebets near Zarichne in the coming days. Their objective is to secure a foothold on the eastern bank and push into the town. The enemy aims to advance toward Borova’s forward lines and fully dislodge elements of the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Grouping from positions east of the Chornyi Zherebets River.

• The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the "Khortytsia" OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar. After the reaching the Poltavka–Pleshchiivka line, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by an airborne forces group, will attempt a rapid breakthrough from the bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal in the Chasiv Yar area, advancing from the northeast toward Kostyantynivka.

Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 15.04.25

Personnel - almost 935,160 (+1,180);

Tanks – 10,629 (+7);

Armored combat vehicles – 22,150 (+20);

Artillery systems – 26,290 (+68);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,364 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,132 (+2);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 44,339 (+210);

Aircraft - 370 (0);

Helicopters – 335 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 32,691 (+147);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,145 (0)

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

• On the night of April 15, Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile and 52 Shahed-type strike UAVs, along with various types of decoy drones. As of 12:00, 26 strike UAVs have been confirmed shot down. Nineteen enemy decoy drones were lost in location (without negative consequences). As a result of the enemy attack, Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts were affected.

• On the morning of April 15, Russian occupiers attacked Kharkiv Oblast: they carried out an airstrike on the residential sector of the village of Slatyne and launched drone attacks on the village of Rubizhne, resulting in fires and damage to residential buildings. Over 20 houses and an outpatient clinic were damaged in Slatyne due to the airstrikes.

• On the morning of April 15, Russian forces hit a civilian car with a drone in Beryslav and attacked a man in the village of Mykilske in Kherson Oblast, injuring three people. Also, on the evening of April 14, the occupiers shelled Shyroka Balka and struck a residential house in the village of Vysoke. Four people were injured, including a 7-year-old boy.

• Six UAVs attacked the industrial zone of the city of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast: one person was wounded. A fire broke out in a vehicle service building and an adjacent warehouse. It took rescuers over three hours to extinguish the blaze, which covered 100 square meters.

• On April 15, a Russian FPV drone exploded near a civilian car on the road between Kivsharivka and Kupyansk, injuring a 59-year-old man and his 62-year-old wife.

• Around 15:00, Russian occupiers attacked Antonivka, a suburb of Kherson, with a drone. A 74-year-old local resident sustained mine-blast trauma and shrapnel wounds.

• Around 16:30, Russians hit Kherson with a drone. Due to the explosive device dropped, a 53-year-old man waiting at a bus stop suffered blast injuries and abdominal shrapnel wounds. He was taken to the hospital.

• In the Krasnopillia community of Sumy Oblast, a man riding a bicycle was injured by a Russian drone attack.

• Ukraine successfully completed the 2024/2025 heating season, despite Russia conducting 9 massive attacks on Ukraine's energy system during this period, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported.

• The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has initiated proceedings regarding the illegal adoption of Ukrainian children by Russians in Crimea. It notified the Russian government about application No. 6719/23, filed by the Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union on behalf of ten Ukrainian children taken from Crimea after the occupation of the peninsula in 2014. The Court has requested official comments from the Russian side, to be submitted by July 31, 2025.

• The occupiers accused a resident of Enerhodar, an employee of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, of "state treason" and sentenced her to 14 years in prison. She was accused of making a donation to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.