Russia's war on Ukraine. 15.03.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces advanced to the international border in Kursk Oblast within the area of Zaoleshenka, captured Goncharovka and Rubanshchina, advanced near Guevo and to the southern outskirts of Oleshnia, attempted to enter Gogolevka, and continued attacks in the area of Kurilovka. Small enemy infantry groups attempted to advance toward Novenke, Zhuravka, and the northern outskirts of Basivka.
The "Siversk" Operational-Tactical Group (OTG) held positions in Oleshnia, Guevo, and Hornal.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced in the areas of Krasne Pershe, Doroshivka, Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and Nadiia, attempting to deploy additional units to the western bank of the Oskil River to reach Borova.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near the R79 highway between Dvorichna and Kupyansk and near Bohuslavka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted to advance toward Novolyubivka but failed to secure positions near the village and retreated to their initial positions.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces advanced on the eastern outskirts of Vasyukivka, attempted to push north from Sako i Vantsetti, and continued offensive operations in the areas of Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, and Verkhnyokamianske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the fields west of Ozaryanivka, south of Onezhska Street in Toretsk, attempted to reach Krasnodarska and Hlinka Streets, advanced northwest of Leonidivka and north of Shcherbynivka, and attacked near Dachne, Krymske, Druzhba, and Sukha Balka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked and expelled the enemy from the territory of the "Tsentralna" mine in western Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced on the southern outskirts of Zvirove, south of Udachne, and on the western outskirts of Lysivka, attacked Ukrainian positions in Shevchenkove, and advanced on the southern outskirts of the village. The 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 27th Motorized Rifle Division of the 2nd Combined Arms Army advanced in central Uspenivka. The enemy continued offensive operations in the areas of Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Svyrydonivka, Promin, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Kotlyarivka, Novooleksandropil, Novoserhiyivka, and Troitske.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked on the southern outskirts of Shevchenkove.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attempted to advance southeast of Konstyantynopil and continued offensive operations in the areas of Andriivka and Oleksiivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Konstyantynopil.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces advanced near Vilne Pole, along the Mokri Yaly River toward Velyka Novosilka, west of Skudne, and attacked near Burlatske, Vilne Pole, Novosilka, Novopil, and Rivnopil.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked west of Burlatske.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces advanced near Zherebyanky toward Kamianske, near Maly Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky, and attacked near Pyatykhatky, Stepove, toward Novoandriivka, and Mala Tokmachka.
General conclusion:
On the Kursk direction, there is no encirclement of the "Siversk" OTG units. The forces maintain freedom of maneuver, logistics routes are operational, and a tactically advantageous line is held along dominant heights near the state border within the territory of the Russian Federation. There is no threat of an enemy advance into Sumy Oblast.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces have increased activity to the northwest of Soledar and intensified combat actions in the Bilohorivka area.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces have escalated attacks following the arrival of the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces resume offensive operations and attempt to advance southwest of Pokrovsk, gradually regaining tactical initiative.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 149 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy launched three assaults on Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions near Vovchansk, Kamyanka, and Krasne Pershe.
On the Kupyansk direction, four enemy attacks took place. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled assault actions near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 20 times, attempting to advance near Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Novovodyane, Yampolivka, and Torske, as well as toward Nove and Dronivka.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked seven times in the areas of Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dariivka, Verkhnyokamianske, and Hryhorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, four combat engagements were recorded near Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, and Stupochky.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched 24 attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, and Toretsk.
On the Pokrovsk direction, 43 enemy assaults and offensive operations were stopped in the areas of Sukha Balka, Vodyane Druhe, Svyrydonivka, Promin, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Kotlyarivka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka, Tarasivka, Hrodivka, Lysivka, Novopavlivka, Serhiivka, and Udachne.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attacked nine times near Konstyantynopil, Rozlyv, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, and toward Shevchenko.
On the Huliaypole direction, three enemy attacks were repelled near Novopil.
On the Orikhiv direction, seven enemy assaults were stopped in the directions of Stepove, Pyatykhatky, and Shcherbaky.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, an enemy attack was repelled.
On the Kursk direction, 20 combat engagements occurred. The enemy conducted 19 airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out UAV strikes on the Volgograd Oil Refinery of the Lukoil company near the Sarepta railway station.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The "Pyatnashka" unit of the 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 9th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps operates near Malaya Loknia.
Units of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army operate near Yampolivka, while the 73rd Artillery Brigade of the 25th Combined Arms Army is engaged near Torske.
Units of the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army engage near the “Fomiga” and “Zabalka” districts in Toretsk, with the 238th Artillery Brigade of the 8th Combined Arms Army operating near Ivanopillya.
The 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army operates near Skudne, and the 40th Separate Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet is active near Dniproenerhiya. The 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army and the 14th Separate SOF Brigade are positioned in the area of Velyka Novosilka.
The 38th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army operates on the Polohy direction.
Possible operation situation developments:
The plan for the enemy's spring-summer offensive campaign in the Southwestern Theater of Operations may be as follows: a simultaneous breakthrough towards Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka from the south and southeast (from the direction of Toretsk and Vozdvyzhenka), as well as from the northeast (from the direction of Chasiv Yar), followed by an advance towards Kramatorsk from the south while simultaneously advancing towards Slovyansk with the forces of the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping through Lyman.
If enemy forces of the "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping secure and expand their bridgehead in the Dvorichna area, they will be positioned to push further into Kharkiv Oblast, broadening the so-called "sanitary zone." This could be achieved through simultaneous advances toward Velykyi Burluk from the bridgehead and from Vovchansk. Another likely course of action is an offensive against the Kupyansk defense sector of "Khortytsia" OSG, coordinated with the 1st Tank Army of the enemy's "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping.
On the Lyman direction, in the near future, the command of the 25th Combined Arms Army of the enemy's "Zapad (West)” Operational Grouping will attempt to accomplish its immediate task by deploying the 169th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation and attacking the positions of "Khortytsia" OSG along the Kreminna–Zarichne road toward Torske.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the encirclement of Chasiv Yar from the south by advancing toward Stupochky will be a priority for the command of the 3rd Combined Arms Army and the 98th Airborne Division of the enemy. To achieve this, the enemy may redeploy additional forces from the 85th or 88th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 3rd Combined Arms Army to this direction from the southern sector.
The operational plan of the 8th Combined Arms Army on the Kostyantynivka direction is to envelop the tactical group of the "Khortytsia" OSG, which is defending south of Kostyantynivka between Oleksandropil and Tarasivka from the flanks. The enemy aims to encircle and destroy this group or, if unable to do so, force it to withdraw from the area south of Kostyantynivka in a northwestern direction under the threat of encirclement. The ultimate goal of these actions is a two-pronged breakthrough from the southwest and southeast toward the area of Stepanivka – Berestok – Pleshchiivka – Yablunivka, followed by a simultaneous assault on Kostyantynivka from this area and from the direction of Chasiv Yar. After the reaching the Poltavka–Pleshchiivka line, the enemy’s 3rd Combined Arms Army, reinforced by an airborne forces group, will attempt a rapid breakthrough from the bridgehead on the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal in the Chasiv Yar area, advancing from the northeast toward Kostyantynivka.
The situation on the Novopavlivka direction may change drastically if the enemy breaks through to the southwest, in the Velykomykhailivka direction, within the operational zone of the enemy's "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping. Currently, its forces are attempting to advance toward the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway from the south and cut it off in the Komar–Odradne section. This would significantly facilitate the advance of Russian forces on the Novopavlivka direction within the sector of the 90th Tank Division and the 110th, 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 51st Combined Arms Army. To achieve this, the enemy is trying to advance along both the western and eastern banks of the Mokri Yaly River with the forces of the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies, as well as the 40th and 336th Separate Marines Brigades, generally moving in the direction of Velyka Novosilka–Komar.
In the near future, the enemy command may shift the main attack direction of the 90th Tank Division toward the Andriivka area (part of the 428th Motorized Rifle Regiment, as well as the 67th and 87th Rifle Regiments). The reinforcement of division units with elements of the 239th or 6th Tank Regiments cannot be ruled out.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 15.03.25
Personnel - almost 892,840 (+1,180);
Tanks – 10,315 (+2);
Armored combat vehicles – 21,458 (+15);
Artillery systems – 24,483 (+28);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,315 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,103 (0);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 40,571 (+102);
Aircraft - 370 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 29,233 (+97);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,121 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
During the night of March 15, the enemy attacked Ukraine with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 178 UAVs. Air defense forces managed to shoot down 130 drones, while another 38 were lost from the radar. As a result of the Russian attack, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv Oblasts were affected.
On the night of March 15, the occupiers struck a high school in the city of Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv Oblast, with attack drones. The building’s roof caught fire over an area of 500 square meters. While firefighters were extinguishing the fire, two more attacks occurred. The first strike damaged 18 houses and five school buses.
In Chernihiv, a Russian UAV hit a nine-story residential building. A fire also broke out in a parking lot but was quickly localized. No civilians were injured.
In Kherson, a child was hospitalized after being injured in an airstrike on the Dnipro district on March 14.
Around noon, the enemy attacked a 48-year-old man in Kherson with a drone. He sustained shrapnel wounds to both legs and a blast injury. He was hospitalized. In Stepanivka, Kherson Oblast, an elderly woman was killed by a drone strike.
As a result of a Russian shelling in Nikopol on Saturday, a 70-year-old woman was killed, while two girls, aged 11 and 3, were injured. A religious institution, two private houses, and a power line were damaged.
In the evening of March 14, Russian forces launched a missile strike on a residential area in Kryvyi Rih, injuring 14 people. A one-story entertainment venue was destroyed. Infrastructure was damaged, including over 15 apartment buildings, 10 private houses, two educational institutions, and a sports facility.
Late in the evening of March 14, Russians carried out a drone strike on a village in the Semenivka community, causing an explosion and fire. Four civilians were injured, and an 85-year-old woman was hospitalized with a concussion.
As of 3:00 PM, energy workers restored power to more than 52,000 consumers in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast who had lost electricity due to Russian attacks.