Russia's war on Ukraine. 15.02.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Kurilovka. They are advancing between Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Kolmakovo, and are attempting to retake Sverdlikovo, where they advanced on the southern outskirts.
The "Siversk" Operational-Tactical Group (OTG) advanced in the wooded area north of Kositsa.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces advanced along Shchorsa Street in Vovchansk.
The intensity of battles, in particular near Lypsti, has decreased, partly due to poor weather conditions.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces continued their offensive in the areas of Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, Zelenyi Hai, Novoserhiivka, Hrekivka, and Makiivka. They broke through the defenses of the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group (OSG) near Dvorichna and are fortifying positions on the western bank of the Oskil River, attempting to advance southwest of Makiivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced northeast of Lyman and on the northern outskirts of Yampolivka, continued their offensive in the areas of Novosadove, Kolodyazi, and Novolyubiivka, and are trying to advance east of Kolodyazi.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked near Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, and Verkhnokamyanske but made no advances.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attacked Chasiv Yar but did not advance.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced in Toretsk and in the areas of Krymske, Shcherbynivka, Sukha Balka, and Leonidivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Vodyane Druhe, Malynivka, Promin, Lysivka, Zvirove, Novoukrainka, Bohdanivka, Preobrazhenka, and Uspenivka. They advanced north of Yelyzavetivka, within Pishchane, and northeast of Nadiivka. The enemy is attempting to advance near Tarasivka, near Zaporizhzhia, and on the eastern outskirts of Udachne. The 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Army is fighting for Zelenе Pole.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Pishchane.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces continued their attacks near Dachne, Kostyantynopil, Zelenivka, and Shevchenkove, advancing along highway C050450 south of Rozlyv. The enemy is trying to advance west of Andriivka, west of Slovyanka, west of Dachne, and further northeast of Zelenivka.
Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced northeast of Zelenivka.
On the Huliaypole direction, Russian forces attacked near Novosilka and toward Burlatske but were unsuccessful. The enemy advanced north of Vremivka.
General conclusion:
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy is attempting to advance along the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway toward Kostyantynopil.
On the remaining directions, the intensity of battles has significantly decreased, with engagements being predominantly positional in nature.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 112 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, a battle took place near Hlyboke.
On the Kupyansk direction, there were four enemy attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces engaged in combat near Zahryzove and Hlushkivka.
On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked eight times, attempting to advance near Novoserhiivka, Zelenyi Hai, Bohuslavka, Nove, Hrekivka, and Kolodyazi.
On the Siversk direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian positions three times near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, and Hryhorivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, three battles were recorded near Chasiv Yar.
On the Toretsk direction, the enemy launched eleven attacks near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, thirty-six enemy attacks were repelled near Zelenе Pole, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novopavlivka, Uspenivka, Kotlyne, Andriivka, Dachne, Ulakly, and Shevchenko.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attacked fourteen times near Kostyantynopil and Burlatske.
On the Huliaypole direction, the enemy launched an airstrike on Kamianske.
On the Kursk direction, twenty-three battles took place. The enemy carried out thirty airstrikes.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Mediterranean Sea: 4 ships, including 3 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 26 cruise missiles.
Supporting operation:
Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out a drone strike on an oil refinery in the Dzerzhinsky district of Kaluga Oblast and the Volgograd oil refinery.
Airports in Astrakhan, Vladikavkaz, Volgograd, Grozny, Kaluga, Saratov, and Ulyanovsk were closed.
Strikes were also carried out on targets in Tula Oblast (Novomoskovsk), Saratov Oblast (Engels), and Rostov Oblast (Rostov-on-Don, Bataysk, Chortkovsky, and Sholokhovsky districts).
The previously targeted Bryansk oil refinery has been destroyed by 46%, and production has been halted.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
The 9th Artillery Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army operates near Doroshivka.
The 37th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division of the 25th Combined Arms Army is advancing near Yampilivka.
The 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army operates near Novocheretuvate, while the 305th Artillery Brigade of the 5th Combined Arms Army is active near Velyka Novosilka.
Possible operation situation developments:
Once the enemy sufficiently expands its bridgeheads on the Chornyi Zherebets River, the 25th Army, with forces of the 67th Motorized Rifle Division and the 164th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, will sharply intensify actions toward Torske and Yampolivka. This will mark the second stage of pushing "Khortytsia" OSG out of the bridgehead east of the Chornyi Zherebets River on the Lyman direction. To implement this plan, the command of "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping will need to expand the bridgehead on the Chornyi Zherebets River to a size sufficient for concentrating an assault grouping and find additional forces and resources.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
Significant troop regrouping should be expected soon in the operational zones of the “Tsentr (Center)” Operational Grouping and the “Yug (South) )” Operational Grouping.
The command of the enemy's "Vostok (East)" Operational Grouping will continue attacks in the direction of the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway along the Mokri Yaly River in the near future and will additionally deploy part of the units from the 60th and 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades into the operation.
Exhausted by losses and intense battles over the past month, the enemy will not be able to quickly pursue "Khortytsia" OSG whose units are retreating from Velyka Novosilka. More and more enemy units are being withdrawn and redeployed to the Pokrovsk direction. Additionally, the enemy will not be able to break through to Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, as they lack the necessary troops, funds, and resources. The plan to collapse the southern Ukrainian front and advance toward Zaporizhzhia is unfeasible for the same reason.
On the Novopavlivka direction, two possible scenarios may develop: either the 20th or 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army will be redeployed at the right time to the operational zone of the 3rd Combined Arms Army on the Kramatorsk direction, or, after eliminating the remnants of the Kurakhove bridgehead, both divisions will be deployed near Pokrovsk.
In the near future, the enemy may shift the direction of its attacks on the southern flank of the remnants of the Kurakhove bridgehead from Ulakly and Dachne further west, toward Konstyantynopil, Rozlyv, and Bahatyr, and introduce the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade into the operation in this direction.
If the Russian military command plans to prioritize the capture of the "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast in the spring and summer of 2025, it will be forced to intensify operational activity on the Toretsk direction in the near future. At the same time, capturing Pokrovsk will remain the primary operational objective of the Russian military command in Donetsk Oblast. Consequently, the redeployment of Eastern Military District troops to the Toretsk or Kramatorsk directions would signify a shift in the operational priorities of the occupying forces.
Russian operational losses from 23.02.22 to 15.02.25
Personnel - almost 856,660 (+1,180);
Tanks 10,068 (+11);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,927 (+17);
Artillery systems – 23,174 (+59);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,283 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,067 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 37,379 (+127);
Aircraft - 370 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 25,341 (+117);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,063 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
Since the evening of February 14, Russia has attacked Ukraine with 70 drones of various types; 33 UAVs were destroyed, while 37 were lost in location tracking.
In Kharkiv Oblast, a civilian was injured due to an enemy strike on the village of Petro-Ivanivka in the Kupiansk district.
In Kherson Oblast, police evacuated a wounded man and woman from Berislav, which was under attack by Russian drones. Due to continuous drone strikes on residential areas of the city, ambulances were unable to reach people and provide necessary medical assistance.
Throughout the day, the Russian army attacked Nikopolskyi district multiple times, damaging a fire station and an enterprise.
In Donetsk Oblast, under artillery and drone fire, a police evacuation team transported six civilians from Pokrovsk to safety.
In Kherson Oblast, Russian shelling on February 14 damaged buildings, agricultural equipment, and vehicles. Ten people were injured, and one person was killed.
Russian forces carried out 468 strikes on ten settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. Two people were killed, and one person was injured.