Russia's war on Ukraine. 15.01.25
Operational situation
On the Kursk direction, Russian forces engaged in battles for Nikolaevka and attacked Makhnovka from the north and southeast.
Ukrainian counterattacks slow the advance of Russian forces.
The "Siversk" OTG counterattacked near Sudzha, in the areas of Nikolaevo-Daryino, Pogrebki, and Makhnovka.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced to within 3.5 km of the R79 highway between Dvorichna and Kupiansk, south of Zapadne. They attacked near Holubivka, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Tabaiivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Zahryzove, Pershotravneve, Shyivka, Raihorodka, Kopanky, Novoserhiyivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, and Novoyehorivka.
On the Lyman direction, elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army engaged in battles near Terny. The enemy also attacked near Zarichne.
On the Siversk direction, Russian forces attacked near Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka, but failed.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced within the refractory materials plant and in the central and western outskirts of Chasiv Yar. They attacked near Predtechyne, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Oleksandro-Shultyne.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces captured most of Toretsk (81%) and pushed Ukrainian Defense Forces units to the northern outskirts. The enemy attacked near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced to the southwestern outskirts of Zvirove, west of Novoyelyzavetivka, and reached the southern outskirts of Novoukrainka, the eastern outskirts of Udachne, and Novoserhiyivka along the northern bank of the Solona River. The enemy attacked near Pokrovsk, Nova Poltavka, Tarasivka, Baranivka, Zelenyi Pol, Novotoretske, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Myrnohrad, Sukhoi Yar, Lysivka, Novyi Trud, Novoukrainka, Shevchenkove, Chunyshyne, Zelene, Novooleksandrivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novovasylivka, Novoandriivka, Sribne, Nadiivka, Yasenove, and Kotlyne.
Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Lysivka, Sukhoi Yar, Shevchenkove, and Novovasylivka.
On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance from Zoria to Slovyanka, attacked the eastern outskirts of Andriivka, and advanced near Kurakhove, Petropavlivka, Dachne, Ulakly, Konstyantynopil, Rozlyv, and Yantarne.
On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces fought on the southern outskirts of Vremivka and south of Velyka Novosilka, attacking near Novyi Komar, Rozdolne, and Neskuchne.
General conclusion:
Russian forces attempt to advance in small villages near Pokrovsk, such as Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, and Novyi Trud, but do not directly advance on Pokrovsk itself. The enemy primarily uses armored vehicles for logistical support and unit rotation rather than combat operations in this area. The enemy's advance along the Malynivka–Vodyane Druhe–Baranivka line indicates its intent to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead between Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
The enemy may attempt to cut off the Velyka Novosilka–Huliaypole road after capturing Vremivka to complicate the withdrawal of Ukrainian Defense Forces units from this area.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
There were 158 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy twice assaulted the positions of Ukrainian units near Vovchansk.
On the Kupyansk direction, the aggressor conducted offensive operations in the areas of Nova Kruhlyakivka and Tabaiivka, where Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped five enemy attacks.
On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Defense Forces 17 times near the settlements of Kopanky, Hrekivka, Novoyehorivka, Raihorodka, Makiivka, Zarichne, Terny, and Hryhorivka.
On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 14 assaults by occupation forces near Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Ivano-Dariivka, and Vyimka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy stormed Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Oleksandro-Shultyne. Fourteen enemy attacks were repelled.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces assaulted the positions of Ukrainian units eight times in the areas of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy attacked in the areas of the settlements of Yantarne, Novotoretske, Promin, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Chunyshyne, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Novoandriivka, Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, and Shevchenko. Seventy enemy attacks were repelled.
On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy attempted to break through Ukrainian defense seven times in the areas of Konstyantynopil, Velyka Novosilka, and Neskuchne.
On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy continues to attempt to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions, conducting three unsuccessful assaults.
On the Kursk direction, 18 engagements occurred.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
Mediterranean Sea: 7 ships, including 2 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 22 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
UAV operators from the "Rubicon" Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies operate in Kursk Oblast. The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army is engaged in combat operations near Pogrebki.
Possible operation situation developments:
The enemy command's plan for the Southwestern Theater of Military Operations during the winter campaign of 2025 may include an operation to capture Pokrovsk and the final occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Another possible course of action could be the occupation of Kupyansk or simultaneous actions in several directions.
On the Kramatorsk direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG units will be forced to retreat to the Kostyantynivka area if the enemy reaches the Chervone–Stupochky line and simultaneously launches an offensive northward at the junction of its 41st and 51st Combined Arms Armies from the Novooleksandrivka–Arkhanhelske line, advancing to the Yablunivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line on the Toretsk direction.
The enemy’s offensive on Pokrovsk may proceed according to two main scenarios:
A breakthrough to the city from the south and the gradual expulsion of Ukrainian Defense Forces from the city due to numerical superiority in forces and means (the enemy's tactics in Chasiv Yar).
A deep encirclement of Pokrovsk from the south, cutting the road to Mezhova, regrouping part of the 2nd Combined Arms Army's forces, encircling the city from the north as well, cutting the T0504 road to Kostyantynivka.
The 36th, 57th, and the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades, advancing from the south towards Sukhyi Yaly and Yantarne, might simultaneously, together with the actions of the 51st and 8th Combined Arms Armies, once again attempt to break through in the direction of Zelenivka – Ulakly and further towards Konstyantynopil.
On the Vremivka direction, the 5th Combined Arms Army will attempt to bypass the "Khortytsia" OSG’s defense zone in the area of Velyka Novosilka – Vremivka – Neskuchne from the west, expand its section of control over the Velyka Novosilka – Uspenivka road between Novosilka and Vremivka, and actively broaden the penetration toward Neskuchne and Novosilka.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 15.01.25
Personnel - almost 812,670 (+1,580);
Tanks 9,780 (+13);
Armored combat vehicles – 20,348 (+22);
Artillery systems – 21,975 (+52);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,262 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems – 1,046 (+2);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 33,995 (+204);
Aircraft - 369 (0);
Helicopters – 331 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 22,383 (+107);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 3,018 (0)
Boats/ships – 29 (0).
Humanitarian + general:
On the night of Wednesday, Russia launched a combined airstrike on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure and energy sector, firing 117 missiles and drones. Ukrainian air defense destroyed 77 of them—30 missiles and 47 drones. The enemy targeted energy facilities, including gas infrastructure in Kharkiv, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts.
As a result of the massive missile attack on energy facilities, emergency power outage schedules were introduced in seven oblasts: Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. As of 9:00 AM, these schedules had been lifted in all the affected regions.
In Lviv Oblast, the massive missile strike caused hits on critical infrastructure in the Drohobych and Stryi districts. There were no casualties, but damage occurred.
On January 15, Russians shelled the village of Bilozerka. Near a pharmacy, a 49-year-old civilian was injured. Additionally, two other people injured in the village the day before sought medical assistance.
In the first half of the day, the invaders repeatedly attacked Kherson with drones, wounding six civilians.
On the morning of January 15, the Russian army launched an airstrike on Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast, hitting civilian infrastructure. Nine people were injured, including a 6-year-old girl and a 16-year-old boy.
Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 3,530 strikes along the front line and on three settlements in Donetsk Oblast.
Twenty-five Ukrainian citizens—both civilian and military—returned from captivity, including defenders of Mariupol and "Azovstal," as well as those who fought in the Kursk Oblast. Among them were severely wounded individuals suffering from blindness, amputations, and blast injuries.
The Russia-controlled Gagarinsky District Court in Sevastopol sentenced members of the religious organization "Jehovah's Witnesses," Viktor Kudinov and Sergey Zhigalov, to six years in prison on charges of "organizing the activities of an extremist organization."